Upper Tier Tracking Thread

[Bob]

I think some alliances that we could see leaving on both sides are as follows:

 

Equilibrium

AZTEC alliances

The Dark Templar

NEW

 

Competence

TSO

TOP

-----------------------------

The difference between the quitters for Equilibrium is that the coalition doesn't really "need" them. If TOP leaves, it would mean dishonoring the Reaver Accords with Umbrella, The Unholy Alliance with MK, and the Concordia Compact with TSO. If TOP leaves, TSO leaves. And the question to "Who wins the war?" is really "Which side is more patient?"

 

Equilibrium needs to hold fast to its guns and slowly scrape away at Competence, while the latter needs to somehow justify the destruction of vast amounts of tech in the defense of Umbrella (or in defense of the Hegemony...or why ever it is everyone is fighting).

 

Sticking to my guns would imply I gave a fuck about this bullshit justification for a war.  I will win the second I get out of the war by virtue of not being in it.

 

I'm here for my allies, and nothing more.  Not a single second more.

[Yevgeni Luchenkov]

For Front 1:

 

 

TOP has 4 nations off AA. ~380k NS

 

Genland - 163,492.442

75235 - 86,428.302

United Owns - 82,272.092

Believland - 57,133.169

 

 

As you can see, there aren't many of them. Let alone enough to cause any meaningful difference. 

You're missing one. Also, if you look at the stats, I'd say that five nations can make a huge difference on a side.

[Steve Buscemi]

I believe that the upper end war is becoming less relevant each day and the mid tier war is where the war is really heating up.  Perhaps the discussion would be more relavent if we added the mid tiers as well.

 

Fark's motto for the last few years has been, "The Mid-Tier is all that matters."

 

[Chad]

Instead of getting all your e-peens in knots why not read my very first post? Also, you've all horribly misread and misunderstood my post. Instead of actually reading it like a civilized human being, you guys are just looking for someone to argue with. I didn't say these alliances are going to leave or even want to leave. But if alliances are going to pop that surrender cherry (and by surrender cherry I also mean white peace not counting that VE BS), there is a good chance it'll be some alliances that are being throttled real hard for no real gain (i.e. the alliances that I listed).

But I suppose it is this type of blind pride that is keeping dQ alive so we can all have fun.

EDIT - By "for no real gain," I mean destroying your top tier for allies that are fighting out of stubbornness more than anything (I'm referring to top tier Doomhouse) and allies that, apparently, only care about the few powerful nations in your coalition while they could care less about the rest of you.

Edited February 19, 2013 by Isotope

[Do Not Fear Jazz]

I love this thread, thank you Shinra.

[Aeternos Astramora]

Dude,
have you ever even talked to someone in AZTEC? Serious question,
because I've been around a long time and I've never seen you on our
forum or IRC channels. Funny that you point to GLOF, AB, and DT as being
people that may leave, yet they're among the very few alliances that
have proven they actually know how to conduct a war. If we were to jump
out you can rest assured that TSO and TOP wouldn't have to leave- there
wouldn't be anyone left to stagger them or do anything to cause them any
problems at all.

 

And since we're fighting the two
alliances from "the other side" that you think may bail... TOP isn't
going anywhere any time soon. They were ready for the fight and have
been more than willing to fight during this conflict. I'm guessing
you've never talked to any of them either.

 

I do thank you for the comment though. I now know that I never need to pay attention to anything you ever post again.

 

Also from this front, I have to say that AZTEC is great so far, and I too don't think TOP will surrender soon. I don't know about Alchemy, OTR, and TSO though since I really don't know anything about them.

[Feanor Noldorin]

Funny that you point to GLOF, AB, and DT as being people that may leave, yet they're among the very few alliances that have proven they actually know how to conduct a war. If we were to jump out you can rest assured that TSO and TOP wouldn't have to leave- there wouldn't be anyone left to stagger them or do anything to cause them any problems at all.
 .

True words.

Those alliances have pulled their weight and then some during this conflict. Big time performance by them. Much respect.

[General Somoza]

There's nothing in a knot other than your twisted logic and attempt to backtrack from what you said. The only reason GLOF, AB, and DT would leave the war is to escape being allied to someone that would make such baseless and inaccurate accusations. We aren't new at the game, we understand our role and our position in the coalition. This is far from the first time we've been here. We've never run from a fight before, there's no reason to assume we'll do so now. To claim that we'd be the first to surrender is very insulting and is something that we will not forget.

[Chad]

There's nothing in a knot other than your twisted logic and attempt to backtrack from what you said. The only reason GLOF, AB, and DT would leave the war is to escape being allied to someone that would make such baseless and inaccurate accusations. We aren't new at the game, we understand our role and our position in the coalition. This is far from the first time we've been here. We've never run from a fight before, there's no reason to assume we'll do so now. To claim that we'd be the first to surrender is very insulting and is something that we will not forget.

I'm not back tracking crap. You guys misunderstood what I said and I am attempting to correct you guys. If you people insist on staying stubborn and being insulted, I couldn't care less. And I am quite flattered that my words, spoken by someone who is essentially a nobody in the sea of nations on Planet Bob, mean so much to you and your alliances. My words shall ring across your great alliances forever and shall never be forgotten!

Edited February 20, 2013 by Isotope

[Sarkin]

I'm not back tracking crap. You guys misunderstood what I said and I am attempting to correct you guys. If you people insist on staying stubborn and being insulted, I couldn't care less. And I am quite flattered that my words, spoken by someone who is essentially a nobody in the sea of nations on Planet Bob, mean so much to you and your alliances. My words shall ring across your great alliances forever and shall never be forgotten!

 

You're aggressively incompetent in terms of picking your battles. Calm down, rein it in, and either just drop it or admit that you made generalizations regarding alliances about whom you know nothing.

 

In other news, good thread.

Edited February 20, 2013 by Sarkin

[rsoxbronco1]

The face of a master diplomat.

[OverlordShinnra]

Getting to the nitty gritty of this war...

 

 

 

Totals for Original Front 

 

 

DR and co.

  120k+ - 10 (1) --> 9 (0)

  100k - 16 (7) --> 16 (6)

  80k -  84 (53) --> 82 (56)

 

DH and co.

  120k+ -  24 (17) --> 25 (16)

  100k -  10 (6) --> 10 (7)

  80k -  16 (13) --> 12 (9)

 

 

 

Commentary:

And just like that the last 120k+ nation in war mode falls. This is not likely the last nation in this tier we will see in war mode BUT (and I say this in all seriousness) I am doubting that many of the infra heavy nations currently sitting in peace mode are going to want to come out of war mode just to get hit by a so-called super nation that no longer has any nations to destroy now that they have cleared out that level. That being said Equilibrium as a whole has a decent amount of nations that can buy into that range if they truly want to. These nations come in the form of RnR's Darklordtim and IRON's Matt Miller among others. What are the implications of this going forward? Well... tbh I don't think anyone on either side thought otherwise. But going forward there are three implications. 

 

1. Any nation who cannot buy below 160k NS will not be able to find a target. They will be rendered irrelevant for the duration of the war except to hold those nations in peace mode and knock down anyone who tries to buy up. 

2. These nations in peace mode are now for all intensive purposes out of the war. If they choose to come out later they will be intentionally losing a round of wars (which will likely be a 3v1) and huge swaths of tech and ns to the super nations. The implication here being while 6-8k tech isn't a lot above 100k, it is a decent amount when you get down to 80k. Now it would take too long and they would take too much damage to make it worth it to get knocked down.So this is probably GG for these nations. 

3. There is officially an NS tier that Competence nations can buy up to and not get hit. It is essentially peace-moding without actually going into peace. We will take a look at this level as nations continue to get knocked down. This level could become relevant in the future as the more nations above this threshold the more nations that will be "saved" by buying up. 

 

This war has officially moved down (where I think the war is more interesting anyway)!

 

 

 

Totals for Front 1

 

 Aztec and co.

  120k+ -  8 (0) --> 8 (0)

  100k -  9 (2) --> 9 (3)

  80k -  31 (18) --> 28 (13)

 

TOP and co.

  120k+ -  3 (2) --> 4 (3)

  100k -  4 (4) --> 1 (1)

  80k -  10 (6) --> 10 (6)

 

 

 

Commentary:

Aztec and Co. held on from getting cleared out for a round of updates and I have a feeling they are going to last another while longer. This probably goes for all fronts. The numbers look really low just a glance for all fronts but there are nations that can easily rebuy into this range with no problem over and over again by just buying up to 2-3k infra and some nations just aren't being DoWed on. These nations tend to just sit there without declaring or being declared on. In other news Genland (which is discussed above) came home and is now sitting on the TOP AA which is why they gain a nation in that tier. OTR took a heavy beating to their 100k tier as they lose both their nations in that range. On the other side of things Aztec and Co. continue to use heavier and heavier use of peace mode. While they gain 1 nation in war mode @ 100k, they lose 5 at 80k. If they continue to do this they aren't going to risk not only getting run out of war mode in the 100k tier but also the 80k tier as well. Again time is the biggest factor here and this front might tell what happens in the greater picture. 

 

 

 

Totals for Front 2 

 

 

SF/XX/Aftermath and co.

  120k+ -  12 (0) --> 12 (0)

  100k - 24 (7) --> 20 (1)

  80k -  97 (47) --> 97 (51)

 

CnG and Co.

  120k+ -  39 (26) --> 37 (23)

  100k+ -  15 (5) --> 19 (11)

  80k -  62 (21) --> 56 (14)

 

 

Commentary:

Wow, is all I can say. SF/XX/Aftermath and co. came very very close to losing the race to clearing out the 100k tier nations in the short term. While it probably wouldn't signify much in the long term it would be a huge morale hit to this front that had 7 nations in war mode 2 days ago. Just at a glance (seem to be using that saying a lot today) it looks like CnG and co. are going to lack the 100k and 80k tier nations to clear out the 80k level on this front. It will be interesting for sure. This brings me to a point of what we will see in the days coming forward. And in two words its - not much. The reason for this is because the Competence forces are likely to start in on the 90-99k tier before they hit the 80-89k level and those nations just simply have longer to fall to get out of the tiers I have chosen. I will be paying close attention to the number of 90k vs. 80k nations over the next couple updates and even if it doesn't show up in my stats you will here a comment or two on if there is damage being done. Lastly, today we saw a lot of buying back up on the Equilibrium side to the 80k range as some alliances were boasting a gain in that range without a drop from another place. On the other end of the spectrum there was a lot of AA switching back to the home AA on the Competence side from alliances I wasn't tracking which inflated their numbers a bit. These numbers continue to be interesting and I look forward to seeing what these alliances have for us in the future. 

 

 

 

Totals for the Entire War

 

 

Equilibrium

  120k+ -  30 (1) --> 29 (0)

  100k -  49 (16) --> 45 (10)

  80k -  212 (118) --> 207 (120)

 

Competence

  120k+ -  66 (45) --> 66 (42)

  100k -  29 (15) --> 30 (19)

  80k -  88 (40) --> 78 (29)

 

 

 

Special Notes:

- Welcome back FARK! Who regains an 80k nation and tracking status. 

- Look forward to my next update in two days for a new section of commentary which I think could be fun :)

[Pingu]

Great analysis, Shinnra. Spawn more!

[Luckao]

That's more like it.  Keep up the good work, Shinnra.

[Instr]

Note it's 130 nations versus 48 nations from "Competence" in the over-80-under-120-k range. It'll be an interesting back and forth between the two factions as "eQuilibrium" tries to nip at "Competence's" heels and see if they can drag anyone back down into their kill zone.

Edited February 21, 2013 by Instr

[Farnsworth]

What are the intensive purposes? lol.
 
Interesting data and analysis. Continues to be a good read.
(Thought I should say something aside from my rhetorical question)

Edited February 21, 2013 by Farnsworth

[Daimos]

Good read.   I cannot remember a war that was this transparent.    Keep the stats and non-partisan analysis coming.

[OverlordShinnra]

What are the intensive purposes? lol.
 
Interesting data and analysis. Continues to be a good read.
(Thought I should say something aside from my rhetorical question)

 

lol you caught me. I suppose I meant for all intents and purposes :p

[OverlordShinnra]

Everyday, in every way, I am getting better...

 

 

Totals for the Original Front

 

 

DR and co.

  120k+ - 9 (0) --> 9 (0)

  100k - 16 (6) --> 13 (5)

  80k -  82 (56) --> 82 (55)

 

DH and co.

  120k+ -  25 (16) --> 25 (15)

  100k -  10 (7) --> 9 (6)

  80k -  12 (10) --> 13 (11)

 

What we see over the last two days is a lot of nothing happening. We had 3 nations on the DR and co. side fall from the 100k tier range into the 80k tier range. 3 Nations from 80k go down into the swarm. On the other side we have 1 nation falling from 100k to 80k and also someone switching from MK to DBDC (which produces no change in stats). If the war continues to happen at such a breakneck pace we might have a verdict sometime in August. All kidding aside, it seems we have reached either a lull or a stalemate this war. Things are not moving as quickly today as they have been, especially on the first two fronts. I believe this tends to benefit both sides in a way. Firstly, if no one is attacking at these levels that means that DR and co. nations that have been knocked down are able to collect more and more money and buy back into range while the nations on the DH and co. side of things are in the meat grinder (Below 80k). On the other hand this means that the 80k+ nations of DH and co. are able to restock nukes in order to give it another go. I'd say the advantage goes to the Equilibrium side in this type of exchange and the pressure is on the Competence coalition to make inroads. If they don't make inroads they risk their superior tech nations that have been knocked down to not eventually buy back up into a range that keeps them above the fray. 

 

 

 

 

Totals for Front 2

 

 

Aztec and co.

  120k+ -  8 (0) --> 8 (0)

  100k -  9 (3) --> 8 (2)

  80k -  28 (13) --> 29 (15)

 

TOP and co.

  120k+ -  4 (3) --> 6 (5)

  100k -  1 (1) --> 1 (1)

  80k -  10 (6) --> 9 (5)

 

 

Its all speculation at this point but this might be where both coalition want to apply the pressure. This is the smallest front by far and seeing zero's all the way down the board for either coalition could be demoralizing. The problem is how to go about applying this pressure. Even though the war is very intertwined on all fronts this front remains one of the more secluded ones with most wars staying in the front. In other news I fear we are saying goodbye to TSO in tracking as this is the second update all their nations have been knocked below 80k and they don't have anyone close to buy back anymore. Something I do want to discuss though is buying back up above the threshold. Today we saw the nation of the Lummerian Empire make a buy back up to 130k ns. This pretty much keeps him out of range of any nations wanting to bring him down on the other side and gives him a chance to restock nukes. But by the time these types of nations restock nukes they will be out of range of anyone they can attack. This goes for almost all nations above 120k, even the ones that didn't rebuy. The question will become how many of these nations will be willing to sell off ns in order to down declare into the 80-100k range? Without their help I fear we are looking at an impassable wall in this range for Equilibrium. What that translates into as far as victory or defeat will be determined by coalitions but it certainly isn't a good thing for the Competence coalition if they reach a block.

 

 

 

Totals for Front 2

 

 

SF/XX/Aftermath and co.

  120k+ -  12 (0) --> 12 (0)

  100k - 20 (1) --> 20 (3)

  80k -  97 (51) --> 84 (42)

 

CnG and Co.

  120k+ -  37 (23) --> 44 (30)

  100k+ -  19 (11) --> 19 (10)

  80k -  56 (14) --> 61 (17)

 

 

CnG and Co. obviously benefit from the entrance of HB and Hooligans on this front. This becomes an almost even front even towards the bottom ranks especially when SF/XX/Aftermath and co. featured a 13 nation drop in that range in two days. That number is not likely sustainable but it isn't good for the Equilibrium side of the war to be seeing any inroads made at this tier. This front from a Competence viewpoint is still going to suffer from nations being too big to attack down into that 80-100k ns range. It will remain to be seen to see how much these nations are willing to part with in order to help their alliance mates or even if they know this is probably the strategy for them to win. The HB and Hooligans on one alliance also shines light on something that is specific to this front. There are a lot of AA's that are only at war with 4 or fewer AA's and therefore cannot do damage across the spectrum. Nordreich is the most apparent of these as they have nations that will be held to doing nothing on this front without re-declaring or being declared on when it comes to the upper end of the war. And the war goes on....

 

 

 

Totals for the Entire War

 

 

Equilibrium

  120k+ -  29 (0) --> 29 (0)

  100k -  45 (10) --> 41 (10)

  80k -  207 (120) --> 195 (112)

 

Competence

  120k+ -  66 (42) --> 75 (50)

  100k -  30 (19) --> 29 (17)

  80k -  78 (29) --> 83 (33)

 

 

 

Special Notes:

- House Baratheon added to Front 2 for Competence Coalition

- Hooligans added to Front 2 for Competence Coalition

- The Sweet Oblivion removed from the battle. They have been "Cleared Out"

 

 

I decided I will be unveiling my new thing as a special update tomorrow. Sorry for the delay.

 

[Brehon]

This is so silly.  This btw is the comments of those with the highest chance to leave the war.

 

Looking at the alliances on both sides, even with my history with TOP, they are about as far from the first ones to drop as one can be.  No, TOP will do what TOP does and that is fight for the side they chose.  To say otherwise is really ignoring so many factors.

 

I will simply say I disagree with the lists offered completely.

 

That is a very good analysis Shinra I have to give it to you for that.

Edited February 23, 2013 by Brehon

[OverlordShinnra]

I've decided to unveil a new stats update that I will unveil on my off days that I do not do the upper tier tracking. I currently track 63 AA's as part of this shindig (with more that are below the thresholds) and I've decided to shine light on some of them in what I'm coming to call;

 

 

The Alliance Spotlight

Each day I update this it will be with a new (randomly picked by random.org) alliance. We will take a look at their wars, consistencies and overall how they are doing this conflict. Keep in mind this isn't meant to offend anyone, just a fun way to pass the time during an otherwise slogging war. Hopefully this provides some new insight into how individual alliances fight wars compared to others. So without further ado lets spin the wheel! 

 

 

Random.org # (1-63): 59

Lucky Alliance #59 is the Lucky Alliance of.... Mortal Wombat!

 

Basic Info

Alliance AA: Mortal Wombat

Alliance Abreviation: MW

Alliance Team Color: Green

Total Nations: 47

 

Days at War: 26

Dow Link: http://forums.cybernations.net/index.php?/topic/115118-mortal-wombat-ucons-super-secret-plan-to-blow-up-db4d/

Dowed On: DBD

Currently at War with: DBD, NEW, Ai, Invicta, Sparta, 

 

NS Day of DoW: 3,516,496

NS Now: 1,672,102

NS Change: -1,844,394 (-52.45%)

Losses Per Day: -70,938 (-2.01%/day)

 

Current Peace Mode Nations: 21

Percentage of Nations in Peace Mode: 44.68%

Current Nuke Count: 503

Nukes per Nation: 10.7 Nukes/Nation

 

Total Current Wars: 59

Wars per Nation: 1.27

Damage Given in Current Wars: 80,920

Damage Taken in Current Wars: 117,940

Damage Ratio: 0.686

Total Damage Rank (among all alliances): #31

 

 

Upper Tier Picture

 

 

Largest Nation in War Mode: Republic of Zeon (44,346 NS)

Smallest Nation in War Mode: Red Starlight (2,397 NS)

Largest Nation in Peace Mode: Battle Royale (175,403 NS)

Smallest Nation in Peace Mode: IGP Warriors (9,761 NS)

MW

  120k+ -  2 (0) --> 2 (0)

  100k+ -  0 --> 0

  80k+ -  2 (0) --> 2 (0)

 

 

Commentary

Mortal Wombat. What a great name to start off with. And they get the honor of being the first alliance we look at individually during this war. To give you some history for this war Mortal Wombat was one of those alliances that went balls to the wall to start off their war against Death Before Dishonor and forwent extensive use of peace mode. Whether they would make the same move or not we can see that it resulted in a extensive Ns losses to the tune of over half their NS which is among the leaders of losses in this category assuming they don't use extensive AA switching. Now though we are seeing a very different picture. There is an extensive peace mode (which we will see in a lot of alliances) use and a lot less warring going on. MW also holds one of the lowest damage ratios in the entire war. I would be interested to know whether this is because of inexperience or because of being in an unenviable position during this current batch of wars. They do still hold a high enough nuke count to inflict some real damage though and time to turn that around. Like everything else in this war, time will tell what Mortal Wombat will make of their current wars. Like all alliances, we at this upper Tier tracking thread wish them luck. 

[Pingu]

Note that NPO has now declared on the wombats, also.

[Aeternos Astramora]

Everyday, in every way, I am getting better...

 

Today we saw the nation of the Lummerian Empire make a buy back up to 130k ns. This pretty much keeps him out of range of any nations wanting to bring him down on the other side and gives him a chance to restock nukes. But by the time these types of nations restock nukes they will be out of range of anyone they can attack. This goes for almost all nations above 120k, even the ones that didn't rebuy. The question will become how many of these nations will be willing to sell off ns in order to down declare into the 80-100k range? Without their help I fear we are looking at an impassable wall in this range for Equilibrium. What that translates into as far as victory or defeat will be determined by coalitions but it certainly isn't a good thing for the Competence coalition if they reach a block.

 

 

I decided I will be unveiling my new thing as a special update tomorrow. Sorry for the delay.

 

lol, I caught two of them, Lum and lordtyrion.

[Zoomzoomzoom]

lol, I caught two of them, Lum and lordtyrion.

Well someone from Argent had to declare at least one war. 

[kwell]

Well someone from Argent had to declare at least one war. 

To be fair zoom, I did fight 2 argent nations and they both ended up far below 80k ns