Upper End of the War

[Yevgeni Luchenkov]

Nebula-X is on TOP/friends. They were part of the first nine to DoW on us. They just never declared wars ingame, after the first week.

Vol Navy, we don't dispute some of our members will go down in the meatgrinder. TOP lacked that extra 3k tech per nation (thanks BiPolar, we still haven't rebuilt to those levels haha) that Umbrella possesses and that makes a world of difference. We also more heavily engaged some of our 75k nations knowing they'd go down. Vlad started at 70k NS.

 

The thing you might not be seeing is this: the people we sent, with very few exceptions, are active. They're competent. And they got huge warchests. If Vlad wants to, tomorrow, he's back to 75k. Heck, if he wants to, tomorrow, he buys 15k infra and he's up to 90k NS. Might even add 3.8k tech to go up to 110k NS or so. And the worst is, that's not even half of his warchest spent in one massive purchase, the kind most nations around here do once. If he wants, he can re-buy 10k infra a dozen times over.

 

We brought some 70-80k nations out to help fight in the 90-100k NS tier to establish supremacy there since our front is the closest up there. We knew they'd go down. We also know they can rebuy once we're in a better position up. Or we can keep them as nuke turrets down there for little to no cost.

Edited February 11, 2013 by Yevgeni Luchenkov

[Ninja Colt]

just wanted to point out that earlier today there was a grand total of 3 nations above 130k ns in war mode

 

in all of equilibrium.

 

46 alliances, 3 nations.

[IYIyTh]

just wanted to point out that earlier today there was a grand total of 3 nations above 130k ns in war mode

 

in all of equilibrium.

 

46 alliances, 3 nations.

 

 

It's almost like there's a game mechanic flaw.

[Umar ibn Abd al-Aziz]

The original point that was being argued was that there aren't enough 60k+ eQ nations to hold the mid tier. I believe eQ does and should (will) hold it up to 80/85k NS. 

 

Assuming that these alliances all decide to pitch in, of course.

 

e: Have you actually canvassed any of them as to their position regarding the war?

Edited February 11, 2013 by Umar ibn Abd al-Aziz

[Unknown Smurf]

Assuming that these alliances all decide to pitch in, of course.

 

e: Have you actually canvassed any of them as to their position regarding the war?

 

I'm on your side. 

 

EDIT: This was a joke.

Edited February 11, 2013 by Unknown Smurf

[IYIyTh]

Stop that. Objective observation from available data is not acceptable in an OOC forum.

[Kiss Goodbye]

Equilibrium has over 50,000 nuclear weapons. Disequlibrium has around 15,000. That really is all that needs to be said here.

 

It really isn't, because you only need one nuclear weapon a week to keep a nation in nuclear anarchy and unable to benefit from collections.  Once in bill lock, you and your nuclear weapons are dead weight, and DH nations are free to keep targeting you, expanding out of 'sniper' mode (3 defensive wars, 1 offensive war) to continue the bill lock.  And nuclear weapons cost quite a bit to upkeep, as does infrastructure.  Your folks can't sell their infra, either, because then they'd be out of range. 

 

This is a warchest and aid chain battle, plain and simple.  Nobody (on either side) seems terribly interested in posting their warchest spy results here, though.  I see a lot of bluster in these threads from both sides without any of the important information backing it up. 

Edited February 11, 2013 by Kiss Goodbye

[SoADarthCyfe6]

I'm on your side.

Don't remind us. Edited February 11, 2013 by SoADarthCyfe6

[jerdge]

To be exact, I lost a total of 39k NS while fighting the absolute strongest nation the EQ side had to offer at me, 10k of which was recovered during the course of the war.  There are no other nations within 8000 tech of Bubbler Nation and he was the most competitive fighter I've faced, probably ever.

Having fought Matt Miller myself in the past I confirm that he's extremely competitive and well-prepared. That said, when I fought him I had a 7k tech disadvantage (he having 14k, me 7k), I was moderately active and I wasn't any better at war than now (which is: not very much) and despite all of this I managed to dish out about the same damage that I took from him.
The reason was simply that he had been dragged down to the "shark tank" from the higher echelons, he was fighting 1 vs 3 and his nuclear stockpile had been already depleted, thus I had a significant infra advantage, winning GAs, and I got nuked only a couple of times.

Later in that same war Matt started dragging Gremlins down to IRON's "shark tank", one at a time, almost alone.

IMHO you don't need a tremendous numbers advantage to progressively dismantle a limited number of formerly "elite" nations, as they'll get as much if not more damage than each of the fighters they'll have to face. They won't be able to bill-lock their enemies, which will simply be too many and which will thus be able to cycle in and out, collecting money.
The real strength of formerly-elite nations is in their "warchest", that allows them to continue to fight for months on end. The stress for EQ will be to manage an organized war with that many combatants, a significant share of which will probably be "not so active", for that long. On the flip side, the longer EQ can keep DH&co under pressure, the smaller their final overall tech disadvantage will be.

[Aeros]

It should be pretty obvious what the game here is by this point. eQ is just going to harass the upper tier in Umbrella and Company to keep them from escaping while the lower and mid tier gets evicerated. Anyone seen Viridian Entente and International lately? Things are not happy outside the 50 or so "upper tier" nations at the top of DH's little pyramid scheme. Below that, its a blood bath.

Edited February 11, 2013 by Aeros

[sammykhalifa]

The thing you might not be seeing is this: the people we sent, with very few exceptions, are active. They're competent. And they got huge warchests. If Vlad wants to, tomorrow, he's back to 75k. Heck, if he wants to, tomorrow, he buys 15k infra and he's up to 90k NS. Might even add 3.8k tech to go up to 110k NS or so. And the worst is, that's not even half of his warchest spent in one massive purchase, the kind most nations around here do once. If he wants, he can re-buy 10k infra a dozen times over.

 

Yeah, too bad only one side of this war has anyone with warchests and such, eh Yevgheni? 

[ArneS]

eQ is just going to harass the upper tier in Umbrella and Company to keep them from escaping

 

How exactly?

[Namayan]

How exactly?

Thru Propaganda?

[Vasily Blyukher]

I figured today's update would be slightly different (I'll run the war wide stats later in the week).  Rather today I decided to take a bit of a closer look at the state of large DH nations.

 

Umbrella

 

CubaQuerida

To begin with, Umbrella's largest nation and king of the massively overpowered nuke, CubaQuerida is in peace mode.  Well at least until he ends up with 11 nuclear weapons.  In fact Cuba is not all that interesting, he's big, he's mean, and he just finished up an extremely destructive war with BubblerNation. For EQ though it isn't a great sign that Cuba was allowed to hop into peace mode and restock his nukes. Anyway, moving on to the war mode nations.

magicalbricks

To begin with we have magicalbricks and his angry cat war face.  Bricks is currently 188k NS and engaged solely in offensive actions against two EQ nations.  Arcticllama of the Dark Templar and danhawk of TIO.  Bricks' war with Llama runs from 2/5 to 2/13 and the damage favors Bricks, he's done 10k to Llama's 4k.  Bricks is down 196 tech, Llama is down 400 tech.  Danhawk's war is even more in favor of bricks.  He's done 15k in damage compared to 1.2k done by Dan.  What is even more impressive if bricks has lost 40 tech, Dan has lost 647 tech.  The land exchange is even uglier.  By the way, at the time of writing this, Danhawk has no other wars.  

 

 

 

Noob Cake

Moving on to the next Umbrella nation, Noob Cake, he is engaged in three offensive wars and no defensive wars.  At 137k Noob Cake is fighting nations from Dark Templar, Argent, and NATO.  The Argent nation is doing comparable damage to Noob Cake, but the other two wars are heavily in Noob Cake's favor currently.  

 

GrandPoobar

The fourth strongest Umbrella nation, Poobar is also engaged in three offensive operations.  He's attacking a GLOF nation, a Dark Templar Nation, and a NATO nation.  Poobar is enjoying favorable damage exchanges (at least 2:1) in all three wars.  I'd take some screenshots of them, but then it would take me all day to do this, sorry guys.

 

Iherud

The fifth strongest Umbrella nation, at 135k NS, is also engaged solely in offensive operations.  Iherud is hitting Dark Templar, IRON, and TIO.   All damages are favorable to Iherud in at least 3:1, if not better.  

 

 

JoshuaR 

Reaching JoshuaR we find the first Umbrella nation who has an active defensive slot.  On 7 Feb DevastationStation of IRON attacked JoshuaR.  Things have been going well for DevastationStation, he's lost 5k strength compared to JoshuaR's 15k loss.  The tech exchange also benefits DevastationStation, he's lost 180 to JoshuaR's 734.  For the record though, DevastationStation is suffering heavy losses against Xavii of Umbrella.  JosshuaR's other war is going swimmingly well for for them, as he is fighting Globetrotter of TPF and JoshuaR has lost 0 NS since he declared on 2 Feb. Globetrotter has lost 25k NS. He has no other wars.

 

 

I assume Globetrotter is inactive, but still, wow.  JodhuaR found himself an upper tier tech raid in the midst of a global war...

 

Xavii

Xavii is the first war mode Umbrella nation I've found who has no offensive wars.  Xavii is the 7th strongest Umbrella nation and currently has 116k NS.  The damage exchange rates are favoring Xavii, and he has lost ~19k NS since the wars started on 7 Feb.  As a side note Xavii is fighting the same IRON nation as JoshuaR and has a much more favorable damage rate, so I assume Xavii is the Umbrella nation firing nukes at him.

 

J2TheD

Like Xavii, J2TheD has a pair of his defensive slots filled.  He is currently at 109k NS.  Against one IRON nation he is losing NS at a 1:1 ratio, the other war is in his favor by about 9:1.  DarkFox, the IRON nation performing at 1:1 against J2TheD, went from 79k on 3 Feb to 94k on 4 Feb.  He declared on J2TheD on 5 Feb.  This has really been what I was looking for, EQ nations having to buy up to remain in contact.  For the previous Umbrella nations I was looking at the people attacking them and trying to find NS spikes prior to a DoW, this is the first one I've found.  

 

What is interesting here is DarkFox has dropped back down to 78k, so at the end of this war he'd have to repeat the rebuy to engage any Umbrella nation over 103k.  

 

Kill Joy

The number nine Umbrella nation, at 107k, has a pair of CoJ nations on him from 4 Feb and 6 Feb.  Kill Joy is on the losing end of the strength exchange of both of those wars, although the only war where CoJ has managed a exchange rate above 2:1 is a war where Kill Joy has lost 8k NS and Yamin Auk Zafar has lost 3k NS.

 

What I find again though is an IRON nation who had to buy up.  In this case Lokvear of IRON engaged Kill Joy (and Natan) on 11 Feb.  On 6 Feb Lokvear went from 43k NS to 78k NS.  His NS chart then rises slowly, which I assume is from military purchases, until he reaches 82k NS and engages Kill Joy and Lokvear today.  

 

Irons82

The number 10 Umbrella nation features no defensive wars.  He's fighting one IRON nation, a Dark Templar nation, and a TPF nation.  The Dark Templar war is notable in that Irons82 has a 5:1 damage ratio.  The other two damage ratios are hovering in the 1:1 area, slightly favoring Irons.  

 

Kwell

The number 11 Umbrella nation is under attack by one IRON nation.  That IRON nation, Falcon IV, has dropped from 99k to 67k over the course of the war.  Falcon IV is at war with another Umbrella nation as well.  Kwell has lost 6k NS.  

 

Rardie

Radie is 98k NS and has three nations engaging him.  Two Molon Labe and one NATO.  Sixgun, the first ML nation to engage, declared on 6 Feb.  On 5 Feb, Sixgun went from 82k NS to 88k NS.  Aggierebel96, the second ML nation, declared on 9 Feb.  On 3 Feb he went from 74k to 92k NS.  The NATO nation, gpn777 is a larger nation who has just been getting smaller as the war goes on.

 

threefingeredguy

Threefingeredguy is the 13th largest Umbrella nation and currently fighting two defensive wars.  His war with Souleater of RnR is a 1:1 damage exchange, but Onion of Argent has done 17k damage versus 4k damage done by threefingeredguy.  

 

I cut off my Umbrella monitoring here.  At this point smaller EQ nations can engage from the 60k to 70k NS range without needing to buy up.  However based on the above this is what I come up with for the top Umbrella nations:

 

12 War Mode/1 Peace Mode: 36 open defensive slots

Defensive Slots Filled: 14 

Defensive Slots By Nations That Had To Buy Up:  3 

 

Now this is a small sample size, but looking at this upper tier you see nations who have no defensive wars and can pick and chose their targets.  EQ only has 38.9% of the defensive slots filled here.  Out of those slots filled, 21.4% required a nation to buy up and engage, which is a warchest draining activity.  

 

Doombird Doomcave

Doombird Doomcave has 11 more nations over 100k NS, with 6 of them in war mode.  The largest, Methax, has no wars and is restocking nukes.  From the remaining five the highlights are:

 

lebubu

All offensive wars, two of them in his favor.  The third a 1:1 tie with acticllama (although they've each just lost ~600 NS).  

 

pudge1975

Two offensive wars, no defensive wars.  Both wars are in his favor by ~2:1.

 

TBRaiders

Three offensive wars, two in his favor, one in the favor of NEW.

 

WhatOnceWas

Three offensive wars, all in his favor.

 

Marcus Bellator

Two defensive wars.  Both wars are in Marcus Bellator's favor.  

 

So for the Doomcave we have:

 

18 Defensive Slots

2 Defensive Slots Taken (22%)

No buy ups to engage.  

 

Mushroom Kingdom

 

MK Top 10: 5 in war mode, 15 Total Defensive Slots

1 Defensive Slot Taken (7%)

No buy ups to engage

 

If you dig around enough, you can find buyups on the MK front as well.  Kryievla went from 55 to 76k and is Drai of MK's sole defensive war.  None in the top ten though.  

 

The Big Picture

When you sum up the sample I've taken here you see:

69 total defensive slots

17 defensive slots taken (25%)

3 buy ups to engage (17% of the wars declared)

 

So the good thing for EQ is they haven't had to order a lot of buy ups to engage the upper tier, of the course the bad thing is they're not really engaging the upper tier.  Umbrella now has a number of offensive wars against EQ forces that started out the war on the 'TOP Front'.  Other large Doomhouse nations have cycled into peace mode to rearm, get out of anarchy, and do whatever else they want.  Some of the largest DH nations feel so confident they won't be attacked they're sitting in war mode and rebuying their nukes.  

 

Now I picked the DH front to perform this sample, because this was the front where fighting began and EQ was able to array their pick of nations and I was curious to see how that was playing out.  IRON is the most active of the original five right now, while the NPO and AI are not major factors this high up.  DH seems to be focusing its offensive wars on TIO, NATO, and people from the TOP Front as opposed to down declaring.  

 

Even where DH is being attacked, its always the bottom of their top ten.  The big guys with massive tech stockpiles are just hanging out and conducting solely offensive operations.  It appears as if Doomhouse has reached a point where they have 25+ nations that are free to cycle in and out of peace mode to rearm and conduct offensive operations at will.  It is also important to keep in mind I didn't even look at VE or Mortal Wombat who are also engaged on this front.  

 

As to what those offensive operations are, some focus appears to be on TIO and NATO, mostly by MK nations.  Umbrella nations from this sample appear to be focusing on pulling some heat off TOP.  I likely sound a bit like a broken record, but when your strategic goal in this war was to end the Umbrella tech stockpile but the war plays out such that the largest Umbrella nations are conducting operations on their terms, that isn't a good sign.  

 

The other issue this brings up is the long term viability of the shark tank.  The biggest DH nations seem to be cruising around right now and clearing out any EQ nations that are hanging around in dark corners.  The moment you've cleared out everything big, you can order your nations in the shark tank to buy infra and jump clear.  Yevengi Luchenkov summed up that option very concisely.  EQ can of course also buy up, but with EQ having a lesser tech stockpile they'll need more infra to reach the same level.  

 

One of the angles with DMZ and tech dealing that I think has been overlooked is if DH might actually be able to clear a safe zone for their tech sellers.  In the sub 6k NS range, millions in aid and thousands of soldiers can be decisive.  So small GOONS and Deinos nations can take in 15 million and 10k in soldiers, go rampaging around and send tech back up to larger nations.  If FACs are purchased, even more money can move down.  As long as the small nations are careful not to grow into the range of EQ nations with military wonders who dropped in NS, they'll be fine.  EQ can of course counter with its own aid packets, but that point EQ is double dipping in terms of warchest drain since they need to purchase infra and fund the ground wars between the tech sellers.  It also opens the door to make it easier to jump out of the shark tank.  A DH nation can buy infra/land/whatever to gain NS and then cap it off by accepting 300 tech in foreign aid to jump clear and bump their damage modifier back up. 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 11, 2013 by Vasily Blyukher

[hapapants]

It should be pretty obvious what the game here is by this point. eQ is just going to harass the upper tier in Umbrella and Company to keep them from escaping while the lower and mid tier gets evicerated. Anyone seen Viridian Entente and International lately? Things are not happy outside the 50 or so "upper tier" nations at the top of DH's little pyramid scheme. Below that, its a blood bath.

 

Re: Bolded/Underlined...

 

It's easy to say this stuff in theory, but a quick look at DBDC's alliance page shows that it has failed in practice:

 

http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=Doombird%20Doomcave

 

A lot of the super-tier nations of DH/Friends have been going in-and-out of peace mode at leisure.  Forget "harassing," the EQ Coalition has been missing staggers left-and-right.  I don't know whether this is a failure in communication or a general reluctance to fight on the part of upper-tier EQ nations, but it's pretty clear that things on the high-tier are quickly taking a turn for the worse for EQ.  

[Aeros]

I am still finding it odd how there is this obsession with a small handful of twinked out nations who only got that way by not fighting. This entire idea is literally built on pillars of sand. One by one they are going to run out of money and tech. Its just a question of time, and time is something Equilibrium has, not DH. Especially considering how less then enthusiastic many of their allies are to burn for Umbrellas arrogance.

[Prodigal Moon]

It should be pretty obvious what the game here is by this point. eQ is just going to harass the upper tier in Umbrella and Company to keep them from escaping while the lower and mid tier gets evicerated. Anyone seen Viridian Entente and International lately? Things are not happy outside the 50 or so "upper tier" nations at the top of DH's little pyramid scheme. Below that, its a blood bath.

Assuming people honestly believe their positions here (not intentionally posting propaganda), it's really interesting how these two groups can have access to the same data and come to such completely different understandings of what's happening and what's going to happen with this war. My EQ bias must be showing because I look at those same AA's (plus Deinos) and think that they're probably not going to hang around and get beaten down that much further. For a smallish alliance to lose 33-50% of its NS is a traumatic thing. These aren't guys with $5 billion warchests who can laugh it off knowing that they'll just rebuy all their infra at the end. So while I'm pretty sure that the 100k+ NS range would/will eventually be overtaken by the DH side of things, that represents such a ridiculously small slice of the nations and overall NS engaged in this war that I don't really know what, if anything, it means for the bigger picture. What are the 5 "safe" upper tier guys going to say to the rest of their alliance that's getting ground down?

 

I love that there is even this kind of confusion and controversy though - this is by far the most interesting war I've seen in over 6 years. The idea that we could get locked into a stalemate with a DMZ is fascinating to me. I think it would be a really cool twist to the political environment moving forward, and seriously rejuvenate the game.

Edited February 11, 2013 by Prodigal Moon

[Instr]

Your problem is that your initial blitz pushed down and churned out tons of Umbrella and TOP nations through a killzone / grinder. Some of these nations will delete, simply due to inactivity, but others will end up in the lower tier with massive warchests and full wonders. This means that as time goes on, your opponents will obtain a lower-tier superiority simply because your side is not prepared to deal with tens of nations kitted out like Timberland. It's all fun and games until nations with WRC and multi-billion NS start attacking your 10k-20k range.

[sammykhalifa]

Assuming people honestly believe their positions here (not intentionally posting propaganda).

 

Somehow that seems unlikely to me.  I wish people could (just for this thread) stop all the macho chest-puffing to impartially discuss what's a pretty interesting war.

[lebubu]

I am still finding it odd how there is this obsession with a small handful of twinked out nations who only got that way by not fighting. This entire idea is literally built on pillars of sand. One by one they are going to run out of money and tech. Its just a question of time, and time is something Equilibrium has, not DH. Especially considering how less then enthusiastic many of their allies are to burn for Umbrellas arrogance.

 

It's easier to get a point across if you don't start with a fallacy in your first sentence. 

[Vasily Blyukher]

It's easier to get a point across if you don't start with a fallacy in your first sentence. 

 

Just for the sake of argument, say we assume there is some number of such nation.  If those nations clear out the upper tier, they've opened an escape hatch for others.  Lets say DH orders 5 nations in the shark tank to purchase infra and jump clear.  EQ either has to let them go or chase after them.   If the upper tier has been cleared, that means EQ needs to order 10+ nations to buy up and declare on those 5 DH nation.  The 'twinked up' (whatever that means) nations can hit those 10 EQ nations that bought up and take the pressure off their 5 comrades.  At the end of the war cycle those 5 DN nations might need to top off their NS, but those 10 EQ nations will have been gutted by nukes from people like Methax and Cuba.  That means more EQ nations need to jump up or they need to accept those 5 are gone.  Meanwhile DH can order more nations to jump clear and put more pressure on EQ.  

 

The issue I'm seeing on the EQ side is how exactly EQ is going to stop the DH nations from covering the retreat of other DH nations, with the retreat being back above 110k.   EQ can of course make it difficult to retreat and try to keep at least some in the shark tank, but give the way the upper tier seems to be playing out, there is going to be a safe zone.  DH forces are moving to help TOP finish off the upper tier over there, the C&G has favorable odds for C&G thanks to NG's entry (Int and ODN have managed to pull back their nations and rearm even) and my sample today shows 20+ DH nations operating without much fear of attack.  The safe zone is happening and while DH is finishing off its creation, EQ gets to swarm the nuke turrets, but it seems like DH can end the attacks on their nuke turrets in the near future if they so desire.  

Edited February 11, 2013 by Vasily Blyukher

[Instr]

The reason I prefer grinder / killzone over shark tank is because shark tanks go all the way to the bottom. Grinders, on the other hand, imply processing, as do killzones. What I am really expecting to see this war is that DH achieves a killzone, moving slowly downwards, from the 140k range on, with occasional EQ nations dropping out of peace mode for harassment / suicide. Below their killzone is EQ's killzone, anything that enters that killzone will get wrecked. And even further below that, you'll have yet another DH killzone, where the detritus from EQ's killzone reorganizes and stomps EQ nations in that range.

[sammykhalifa]

never mind.  that wasn't really fair.

Edited February 11, 2013 by sammykhalifa

[Jake Liebenow]

I just hope the Doom House side doesn't start surrendering to early, as I think this ending to soon would be a disappointment for all. We don't get wars of this scale often. After all the wars a lot of these alliances fighting Doom House have had to fought where there really was no hope of winning, I think the Equillibrium side will have plenty of moral to fight as long as needed now that Doom House doesn't have the majority of the NS stacked on their side. Most of the alliances on the Equilibrium side are no strangers to fighting uphill wars, which is why Doom House had somewhat of an advantage in the really high NS in the beginning.

 

You, uh... do understand that the longer this war goes on, except in the TOP front, the harder it will be for EQ to win, correct?  A stronger upper-tier always lends itself to a more adept war of attrition.  Ultimately, it would be in the best interest of EQ, with this in mind, to sue for peace early with multiple alliances, be it now or within the next couple weeks.  If what I've been hearing is any indication, EQ does understand that.  However, make no mistake - the DH side understands it too.

[Link Gaetz]

Your problem is that your initial blitz pushed down and churned out tons of Umbrella and TOP nations through a killzone / grinder. Some of these nations will delete, simply due to inactivity, but others will end up in the lower tier with massive warchests and full wonders. This means that as time goes on, your opponents will obtain a lower-tier superiority simply because your side is not prepared to deal with tens of nations kitted out like Timberland. It's all fun and games until nations with WRC and multi-billion NS start attacking your 10k-20k range.

Of course the other side will also have upper tier, relatively tech heavy nations that have been knocked down into those lower tiers to help with the Umbrella/TOP nations that are down there and can deal out a good deal of damage.