Upper End of the War

[Namayan]

I'm going to reference my last post.  The longer that we stay at war, the harder it is for you guys to win.  Deinos has fully accepted itself as an auxiliary unit in this war, and Umbrella is the workhorse.  
 
Come at us bro.  I would love the taste of some more NPO nations but for some reason they didn't stagger me (???341:67 nation ratio???) and they're kindly letting me restock nukes in PM.

jake, it is like that coalition wide. Shows how "organized" the whole eQuilbirium coalition is even with total numerical superiority.

I expected it from our front for them to be disorganized, but I expected more from the NPO/DR front to be more efficiently organized than the rest of the coalition.

[Instr]

I think if you're talking about overlapping KZs, the issue is that EQ's KZ is below DH's KZ. When DH nations enter EQ's KZ, by the time they get out, they'll be in the lower tier. On the other hand, when EQ nations get grinded through DH's KZ or otherwise get mowed down by a falling KZ, they'll end up in the mid-tier.

That's why DH is liable to form a second KZ below EQ's mid-tier KZ.

[jerdge]

At this point the speculation on who's going to stomach the fight longer is just that: speculation. Isn't it a bit early to "decide" who's going to do what?

Let's remember that the people posting on the OWF are a minority: what any of us (of you, actually) claims or swears isn't automatically a good indication of what the "silent masses" will do.

 

Back to the point of this thread: DH&co seem to be scoring a definite victory in the top layer. This isn't an entirely unexpected event (more tech and more money help in that) but it wasn't a given either (AI&co could have had the reasonable expectation that many would have just taken the path of an early surrender or deletion).

The key factor that will decide of the military situation is how large a "super layer" (nations bigger that those of everyone else) DH&co will be able to have post war.

 

 

 

During the war

 

The larger number of nations DH can position over the DMZ / the larger range they can occupy in terms of NS (it's basically the same thing), the harder it will be for EQ to try an IRON-style siege later on. More DH people over the DMZ will also mean that their other nations will receive less support from "nuke turrets".

 

"Nuke turrets" aren't well defined (that I know of), by the way. I guess we can label in that way every wonder-heavy nuclear nation with a big treasury.

Tech-heavy nuke turrets have a lot of tech-NS and they are thus in range of many other nuclear-capable nations. If EQ can manage to keep staggered and in anarchy the DH&co's tech-heavy nuke turrets, these last won't be able to do much in terms of disturbing EQ mid-tier nations in collection mode. Keeping them staggered and in anarchy won't be easy, if the nuke turrets are numerous enough, of course.

Unless DH&co end up with really many and active tech-heavy nuke turrets, and/or unless EQ alliances prove to be quite disorganized, EQ is probably going to conquer the mid tier, i.e. to get meaningful collections and enough breath to keep their combatants supplied, entertained and mostly free from war-weariness.
The most dedicated and prepared DH&co combatants (which might also be the totality of their nations, for what I know) will probably continue to fight without losing their combat effectiveness, thanks to their treasury and sturdiness. They should (relatively) slowly lose their tech advantage, eventually dropping into the class of low-NS nuke turrets. The not-so-much-prepared/dedicated nations will instead eventually "lose" (either by hitting bill-lock, or by surrendering) and exit the fight.

Low NS "nuke turrets" can't have that much tech and non-nuclear nations can effectively fight them without suffering much long-tern damage (nations with very small NS are really easily rebuilt). I don't see low NS nuke turrets do anything decisive in this war, although DH&co will probably be able to be quite annoying in that field later on. (I doubt that EQ
will have that many low NS nuke turrets, as their mid-high and formerly-top nations probably won't be completely demolished by the outnumbered DH&co mid tier.)

 

The longer the war, the most complete will be the "reset" of DH&co low-mid NS nations, which should basically lose "all" of their tech.

 

If EQ will be capable to stomach the fight for really a long time they will eventually be able to destroy and/or force to surrender basically every DH&co nation below the DMZ. I'd expect a few alliances to keep fighting, and a few dozens of their most active players to remain irreducible, but I doubt that the mass of their alliances/members will go VietFAN, if EQ offers them a way out. If and when this will happen, I honestly don't know (and nobody can know it at this point, probably).

EQ will then be able to start "attacking" the DMZ, placing some dozens of nations at the lower end of it. Such a move would give the ability to attack and drag down the few opponents immediately over the DMZ, while the other nations over the DMZ would be unable to help without 1) selling high-cost infra and 2) exposing themselves to the same tactic. Removing several nations from the tail of one of yours isn't easy, considering that a week of nuclear war is going to cost a lot, in terms of what infra one has to buy back to then climb again over the DMZ. Even a 15 billions treasury is going to last for just a few times, especially if the ceiling of the DMZ is high (if it isn't that high, on the other hand, EQ will find it easier to move many nations at the lower end of it). It's a catch 22.

Simply put, the infra cost at high infra levels means that dropping below the DMZ is easy and climbing over it is costly. Nobody, not even DH&co can indefinitely defend such a DMZ with smaller numbers: the advantage/disadvantage is in the game mechanics.

 

 

After the war

 

Assuming that DH&co will be able to retain a super-layer at the end of a very long war, and not considering the issue of reparations (I have no idea of what may happen and I would just entertain some idle speculations on that), EQ will have a much bigger mid layer with a lot more money than DH&co's mid and low layers.

Having many more nations that can (immediately and "without" effort) send out many thousands of aid packages will obviously be an advantage. Assuming organization, EQ should be able to quickly build to economic self-sufficiency most of their battered-down nations, then moving on to tech deals as usual. DH&co will instead have to struggle with their smaller number of slots, and their smaller number of already self-sufficient nations, having to decide between rebuilding their low layer quickly or quickly resuming their tech acquisition.

Assuming organization, EQ alliances should be able to regain some terrain on the top-tech nations for some time after the war. I don't think that at this point anyone has the data to say how much terrain they may regain.

Note that, even if we assume disorganization on EQ part (why should we, anyway?), the numbers situation will still be more favourable to them: they'd just be able to lose less terrain (as opposed to the ability of gaining it, as argued above).

 

 

IMHO, the shorter the war, the better for DH&co, and vice-versa.

 

 

(sorry if this is confused but it't too long and it's too late here for me to attempt to fix it further...)

[magicninja]

A 100k Cieling for EQ is very unrealistic. With their high infra low tech nations 80k may be difficult. Look at GOD, Invicta, and now Legion. Legion will be hard pressed to have a nation over 70k in war mode after this.

[Aeros]

So it'll be a long grinding stalemate. Numbers will win out in the end though, they always do. Just ask the Soviet Union. Everybody knows this is a siege, but its a siege DH simply cannot break. Eventually people are going to have to ask if the siege is worth the cost. No doubt Umbrella and MK are invested in taking it to the bitter conclusion. But what about everyone else tied to them? This is an open question from where I sit. Its absurd to think though that this war will end with DH dominating any tier level. So long as they hold the heights I doubt Equilibrium will sue for peace. And since DH simply cannot land the killing blow to any of the Equilibrium alliances the war will slowly grind on as the tech advantages slowly disintegrate. 

Edited February 12, 2013 by Aeros

[commander thrawn]

I am probably underestimating the majority. I have no idea what other alliances' warchest standards are. 

 

But it would be very interesting to see where everyone stacks up.

 

I was at 8000 infra and 8500 tech with 5.2 billion to start things off. I now have just under 5 billion and am in peace mode to restock cause EQ couldn't stagger me at ZI.

[Xavii]

i dont think we need the super tiers to win, i think we need to completely dominate your nations that 15/18mil to will mean very little, which we are quite apt to do.

 

our goal is to remove your ability to dominate anything but the top tier, i would gather our goal post war is to ensure we're in a position where this is your only war you get that advantage.

 

So if an alliance fights a war, looses badly but completely owns the 1-10k NS tier, have they won? I mean the only war advantage the other guy have is 10k and beyond. Everything below that is their territory. Catch my drift? This game revolves around growing nations, grow being the key word here. If you and your friends can't grow past a certain point whats the point? 

 

So nice every alliance that is not Umbrella has accepted their fate to die for your stats. I assume this memo has been passed along to VE and Deinos who are almost entirely among the masses that have accepted this? 

I only speak for the general sentiment in Umbrella, and I have complete trust in our allies. As for dying for our stats, Umbrella is fighting with almost every nation we have, whilst using almost every slot to send aid to our allies. You might also have noticed that our top tier have started clearing out top tier nations on all fronts.

 

Your members who've "accepted their fate" may be the exception but most alliance members are not going to throw themselves on the proverbial sword as readily as you seem to indicate.  It is an interesting perspective though...

 

 

You mention most alliance members not wanting to throw themselves on the proverbial sword, yet you claim you can keep sending nations to suicide into our top tier, how long do you think you can keep that up?

[magicninja]

I don;t think the tech advantages will disintegrate. Not as quick as you guys need it to. Remember your guys (on average) are losing tech faster. All we have to do is effectively eliminate everything at the very top and then just graze from the top down where we can still hold an advantage in numbers. Think 4-5 nations at the top of whatever is left an alliance. That's maybe 100 nations at a time. Those nations won't fall just a few k NS, they'll lose 10's of thousands down to the 30-50k range and they won't be able to drag us down. Once they're done we graze of the next few nations off the top and so on. Eventually, yes there will be far too many nations to graze on but not before Some alliances over there are 60k and under. Then maybe we'll have a knockout drag out to the finish. Now if we got the nuke turrets ie 8-15k tech nations with no infra or land at 40-75k able to declare down on three and you put two on to stagger so they can't rebuy after the round. 5 nations each for about 100 nations. 500 of your mid tier will be wiped out that first week...without us even having to bring out our 50-70k in full force. See how it could get ugly? Of course that is optimum and we won't get that but we'll try and it will still get ugly for you.

[Prodigal Moon]

This thread has gotten kinda ridiculous but at least everyone's predictions (read: 110% CERTAIN PROPHECIES) are saved here for posterity.

[Instr]

I'll admit there are a few advantages for EQ as the war drags on, but they're not the ones you're thinking of, Jerdge. DH-CnG should, if they're smart and competent, work towards neutralizing these advantages, but that's not a given.

Assuming an IRON-style siege would work is seriously trying to clone the last war and history repeats itself only as farce.

[OverlordShinnra]

There are a couple of fallacies going around in this thread on the EQ side of things. 

 

#1 - Once the 100k hurdle is cleared DH and co. won't be able to touch the rest of us. 

 

Why of course they can. Once the 120k hurdle is cleared, then it will be 100k, then 90k, then it will be 80k and so forth. Then I hear the reply but those super nations won't be able to hit a 90k nation. While debatable it won't matter because they won't need them to. Now they will have free 100k nations to attack 90k nations and 90k to attack 80k, etc. etc. The point of this whole exercise is that DH can continue to down declare over and over and over again, as long as it takes. There is no stopping when a nation hits a threshold. It just takes time. 

 

 

#2 - If we pull DH nations down the shark tank its free of charge. 

 

Pulling down a nation with a lot of tech down the shark tank is very painful for the one doing the pulling. Its a grind. You get hit by massive tech nukes and the damage being done by those nukes is huge and often does more damage to the  3 naturally nsed nations doing the attacking. So the rhetoric that 1500 DH nations will be suffering in agony while EQ nations are roaming free in ponyland just doesn't hold. 

 

 

#3 - The sharktank is a free fall. 

 

Not only has their been numerous reports of nations from a bunch of DH and co. AA's slipping into peace mode because of screwed up staggers and what not. I believe (its a hunch) that its also false that nations that are properly staggered will be in freefall forever. Eventually if enough WRC nations get dropped below 25k ns (where virtually no EQ nations have them) the DH and co. side will reach a critical mass of these superior nations and will pretty much obliterate any nation that tries to stagger them. Obviously this critical mass hasn't happened yet but when and if it does it means there will be a floor. A floor on which these nations can land and just start teeing off EQ's lower tier. If this logic holds then EQ will be being chopped off at the top and the bottom with a whole bunch of midtier nations not being able to help except to facilitate the "shark tank".

[Vol Navy]

Nebula-X is on TOP/friends. They were part of the first nine to DoW on us. They just never declared wars ingame, after the first week.

Vol Navy, we don't dispute some of our members will go down in the meatgrinder. TOP lacked that extra 3k tech per nation (thanks BiPolar, we still haven't rebuilt to those levels haha) that Umbrella possesses and that makes a world of difference. We also more heavily engaged some of our 75k nations knowing they'd go down. Vlad started at 70k NS.

 

The thing you might not be seeing is this: the people we sent, with very few exceptions, are active. They're competent. And they got huge warchests. If Vlad wants to, tomorrow, he's back to 75k. Heck, if he wants to, tomorrow, he buys 15k infra and he's up to 90k NS. Might even add 3.8k tech to go up to 110k NS or so. And the worst is, that's not even half of his warchest spent in one massive purchase, the kind most nations around here do once. If he wants, he can re-buy 10k infra a dozen times over.

 

We brought some 70-80k nations out to help fight in the 90-100k NS tier to establish supremacy there since our front is the closest up there. We knew they'd go down. We also know they can rebuy once we're in a better position up. Or we can keep them as nuke turrets down there for little to no cost.

 

I would greatly enjoy seeing Vlad do that, Because in two rounds all he re-bought would be gone and he'd have trouble dishing out damage because he's only going to get 2 nukes a day provided we don't lose his stagger at some point. So far we're doing well keeping TOP there. You had 50 in pm and 50 in Anarchy out of 101 nations last I looked.

 

As for most of the rest of the commentary, this should be called the 5% war, because 5% of DH and company are in a good spot and the other 95% are vastly outnumbered and either getting pounded or in PM. But the 5% are happy and claim to be winning. 

 

Personally, I've had a giant nation before. I was in the top 250 for quite a while. These days I'm happy at 60-90k. Lots and lots of targets when these wars break out. Easy to save money too. So I generally keep buying tech but am happy to top out around 7500-8000 infra.

[HHAYD]

EDIT: To OverlordShin (b/c the quoting system is borked)

 

Your logic does make sense, if...

 

...Had it not been for the fact that only two nukes can be purchased per day, and against an SDI opponent, you'll sometimes need more than one nuke to do the job.

 

In short, that ultra tech only works if you have the nukes. If you get staggered constantly, you'll be only hitting at best two and at worst none, while your opponents nuke then mass GA you.

 

I've came close to steamrolling a tech heavy fighter who had higher NS but barely any infra compared to mine due to the sheer ground army size I could build, but he simply rebought around 3k of infra to resolve that issue.

 

Not sure if every DH/CnG/etc fighters can do that repeatedly though.

Edited February 12, 2013 by HHAYD

[Vol Navy]

There are a couple of fallacies going around in this thread on the EQ side of things. 

 

 

 

#3 - The sharktank is a free fall. 

 

Not only has their been numerous reports of nations from a bunch of DH and co. AA's slipping into peace mode because of screwed up staggers and what not. I believe (its a hunch) that its also false that nations that are properly staggered will be in freefall forever. Eventually if enough WRC nations get dropped below 25k ns (where virtually no EQ nations have them) the DH and co. side will reach a critical mass of these superior nations and will pretty much obliterate any nation that tries to stagger them. Obviously this critical mass hasn't happened yet but when and if it does it means there will be a floor. A floor on which these nations can land and just start teeing off EQ's lower tier. If this logic holds then EQ will be being chopped off at the top and the bottom with a whole bunch of midtier nations not being able to help except to facilitate the "shark tank".

 

Actually we have quite a few well equipped nations down  in that range due to the previous wars and people choosing to stay in the lower NS ranges. There's only so far down you can go with much tech, even at ZI. If you're tech gets low enough to be down there, it doesn't matter much, because you're just destroying some easily rebuilt infra based NS while losing what tech you have left.

[OverlordShinnra]

Actually we have quite a few well equipped nations down  in that range due to the previous wars and people choosing to stay in the lower NS ranges. There's only so far down you can go with much tech, even at ZI. If you're tech gets low enough to be down there, it doesn't matter much, because you're just destroying some easily rebuilt infra based NS while losing what tech you have left.

 

 

I don't doubt it but eventually there will be more knocked down WRC nations then "prepared" nations. At that point the whole tower falls down and now EQ's huge military advantage only applies between 20k - 80k with a critical mass of WRC's biting at your ankles and a swatch of top nations hammering at the top. Obviously the question is whether a DH and co. alliance or few alliances surrender before such a scenario occurs but if it does reach such a scenario I find it difficult to see how EQ could win. 

[Vol Navy]

Because we have 3 to 4 times the number of nations in that range. We can get clean collections, restock nukes, etc while you guys have to collect in nuke anarchy cycle after cycle as well as only shoot 2 nukes a day. I've fought outnumbered in this range enough over the years to know how it works, it's almost all I've done for the last 3,5 years worth of wars. You can get lucky and have uninterested opponents (MK in DH/MK) and wreck nations who aren't even trying and you can hit ill prepared nations, that guy with 8000 infra and 900 tech. But he's rebuildable. 

I don't doubt it but eventually there will be more knocked down WRC nations then "prepared" nations. At that point the whole tower falls down and now EQ's huge military advantage only applies between 20k - 80k with a critical mass of WRC's biting at your ankles and a swatch of top nations hammering at the top. Obviously the question is whether a DH and co. alliance or few alliances surrender before such a scenario occurs but if it does reach such a scenario I find it difficult to see how EQ could win. 

[Sardonic]

This thread has gotten kinda ridiculous but at least everyone's predictions (read: 110% CERTAIN PROPHECIES) are saved here for posterity.

May as well throw my hat into the ring.

 

"White peace will be reached eventually, and people will be arguing about who won for the next year, even though it will be patently obvious who won if EQ fails to equalize Umbrella in any meaningful way."

[AlmightyGrub]

I like this thread. Perhaps if more people actually fought wars in-game rather than on paper we wouldn't have the endless dribble wrapped up in wishful political bias. This war has a number of possible outcomes, statistics will, in the end, mean very little. There are limitations on what can and can not be done from a properly staggered nation held in nuclear anarchy. There is an awful lot that can be done rolling in and out fresh as a daisy. Eventually someone will get bored of their role though and lose focus. Then we will see what it all means. There is an awful lot that can be done if you break the stagger and restock nukes and launch back where you are most effective. Cash is king.

[OverlordShinnra]

Because we have 3 to 4 times the number of nations in that range. We can get clean collections, restock nukes, etc while you guys have to collect in nuke anarchy cycle after cycle as well as only shoot 2 nukes a day. I've fought outnumbered in this range enough over the years to know how it works, it's almost all I've done for the last 3,5 years worth of wars. You can get lucky and have uninterested opponents (MK in DH/MK) and wreck nations who aren't even trying and you can hit ill prepared nations, that guy with 8000 infra and 900 tech. But he's rebuildable. 

 

The problem I'm posing though is that those nations will have no targets without building up or falling down. It won't matter how many 15k - 100k nations you have massed once a sufficient number of nations have been passed down to the bottom. You will have nations at the bottom starting to dominate the lower tier because they have full wonder sets and superior war chests and they will start hammering 15k up to 20k and then up to 25k as they continue to pull nations down. At the same time the nations at the top are going to hammer down 100k to 90k and then to 80k and so forth. Eventually the gap is going to become ridiculous and EQ nation will only be able to save up and collect in a very small window.

[Yevgeni Luchenkov]

I would greatly enjoy seeing Vlad do that, Because in two rounds all he re-bought would be gone and he'd have trouble dishing out damage because he's only going to get 2 nukes a day provided we don't lose his stagger at some point. So far we're doing well keeping TOP there. You had 50 in pm and 50 in Anarchy out of 101 nations last I looked.

 

As for most of the rest of the commentary, this should be called the 5% war, because 5% of DH and company are in a good spot and the other 95% are vastly outnumbered and either getting pounded or in PM. But the 5% are happy and claim to be winning. 

 

Personally, I've had a giant nation before. I was in the top 250 for quite a while. These days I'm happy at 60-90k. Lots and lots of targets when these wars break out. Easy to save money too. So I generally keep buying tech but am happy to top out around 7500-8000 infra.

Just to be exact, if he did what I said (buy 15k infra and 4k tech), he'd spend roughly 4.5bn to 5bn. I'd of course also recommend that he buys an extra 5k to 7k land (to be sure) and add a last 300 tech for good measure from friendly nations.

 

If he did that, he'd be above where you guys can declare, short of one of your big PM'ed nations exiting. If that nation exits, he fights Vlad 1v1. On an even footing. And your big nation then gets countered by some of our "30 strong super tier". And he goes down to 65k NS.

 

It works. After a while, we'll start seeing a sort of no man's land in the 80 to 90k range imo.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Yevgeni Luchenkov

[Dajobo]

Why do you all want to read the last page of the book first? I'll read it in order and enjoy watching it unfold!

[Instr]

Dajobo: It's called critical reading; flipping to the end and reading the conclusion is part of the pre-reading process.

[Commander shepard]

I think if you're talking about overlapping KZs, the issue is that EQ's KZ is below DH's KZ. When DH nations enter EQ's KZ, by the time they get out, they'll be in the lower tier. On the other hand, when EQ nations get grinded through DH's KZ or otherwise get mowed down by a falling KZ, they'll end up in the mid-tier.

That's why DH is liable to form a second KZ below EQ's mid-tier KZ.

 

By the time they end up in the lower tier they will be in ruins because they have more tech than infra, so the tech will be keeping them in middle tier.

Unless we destroy all their tech, but we will also lose tech lowering many of our nations too.

 

And given that most of their nations are said to have a good tech number and a good number of EQ have low tech, then a good amount of EQ heavy wonder nations will be with them.

Do not forget EQ already has a good pile of wonder heavy nations at those low levels and they will be the first to fall down to outhumber DH(as they already do). 

[Icewolf]

The "low level domination" thing is something that happens in every one sided war. DH and Co are just having a short confidence boost because their mid teir got knocked down so quickly by round 2 they were fighting nations with less wonders than them. The fact is though, numbers still win. You watch nations that get knocked down to that level. They fight hard for a round or two then they fall off a cliff and die. Saw it in past wars and I am watching VE do it right now. Furthermore, you assume that your vastly powerful nations will keep fighting down there. Why? DH has already lost hundreds of thousands of NS to deletions this war. You really think your nations will want to fight in the lower ranks? Especially when they cannot fight ground attacks due to infa/tech imbalance. Deletions and despondancy would become rife within your ranks (they already seem to have within the so called "elite" alliances.

[Parandiac]

Have you ever fought a lopsided war?

 

i find this hilarious since khyber was a member of the echelon triumvirate during karma.

 

 

really good read, mostly, aside from the threadsh*tting of a few people.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Parandiac