Upper End of the War

[Vasily Blyukher]

Despite all the peace mode jokes being made by the usual suspects, it is fairly clear that he Doomhouse/TOP/C&G/etc side of things is going to focus around a primarily upper tier response. Our of curiosity (or as a sign I need more of a life), I decided to look at some of the stats about what DH has committed to war.

[url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Page=1&Order=DESC&Field=Strength&Alliance=The%20Order%20Of%20The%20Paradox"][b]The Order of the Paradox[/b][/url]
Starting at Nation 40, the Nation of Jenko, is where we start seeing the doves appear in bulk. Above Jenko there are 8 nations in peace mode and 31 nations in war mode. You could also argue this cut actually starts with the DHaran Empire, as CrazyCanuck has failed to anything and if Canuck had peace moded, the doves would appear in bulk. While TOP does have others in war mode, I will assume most of these are people who couldn't be reached within 48 hours to head for peace mode. For example, [url="http://www.cybernations.net/nation_drill_display.asp?Nation_ID=65153"]Congo[/url], a 53k NS nation, failed to declare any offensive wars but has been DoWed by an AI nation at the time of writing this. Thus by the stats:

[u]Upper Tier Committed Nations: [/u]31
[u]NS Range[/u][b]: [/b]221k to 94k

[b][url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=MuShRoOm%20KiNgDoM"]The Mushroom Kingdom[/url][/b]
For MK the peace mode orders clearly began at #22 in NS Ranking, as from 22 to 40, one one nation is in war mode and he declared no wars. Out of the top 21, MK currently has 2 nations in peace mode, which gives them 19 active.

[u]Upper Tier Committed Nations:[/u] 19
[u]NS Range:[/u] 380k to 103k

[url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=The%20International"][b]The International[/b][/url]
At the time of writing this, Int has opted to forego extensive use of peace mode. One could argue if this is to open themselves for counters so as the advantageously fire treaty chains, or just personal preference. Int has 14 nations above the 100k mark, with 11 in war mode.

[u]Upper Tier Committed Nations:[/u] 11
[u]NS Range:[/u] 184k to 103k

[url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Page=1&Order=DESC&Field=Strength&Alliance=Orange%20Defense%20Network"][b]The Orange Defense Network[/b][/url]
ODN has also opted to forego extensive use of peace mode at this time. So looking solely at their 100k plus nations we have:

[u]Upper Tier Committed Nations:[/u] 19
[u]NS Range:[/u] 159k to 106k

[b]Umbrella[/b]
Umbrella was of course blitzed, so peace mode wasn't really on the table for them. After 48 hours of war they have 50 nations above 100k NS.

[u]Upper Tier Committed Nations:[/u] 50
[u]NS Range:[/u] 262k to 104

[b][i]Side Total:[/i][/b]
Nations: 130, 80 for offensive operations, 50 on defense

[b]The Aggressors[/b]
Based on the above data, namely where MK and TOP opted to send the mass peace mode orders, I've assuming the line for combat in the upper tier is roughly 100k NS. At least for this round. Thus looking at the aggressors in this conflict (NPO, AI, TIO, IRON, and NATO) we have:

[u]Nations Over 100k:[/u] 111
[url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=Anarchy%20Inc."][i]Anarchy Inc:[/i][/url] 35 Total, 18 war mode/17 peace mode
[url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=Independent%20Republic%20Of%20Orange%20Nations"][i]IRON:[/i][/url] 32 Total, 17 war mode/15 peace mode
[i][url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=NATO"]NATO:[/url][/i] 12 Total, 5 war mode/7 peace mode
[i][url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=New%20Pacific%20Order"]NPO:[/url][/i] 9 Total, 5 war mode/4 peace mode
[i][url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=The%20Imperial%20Order"]TIO:[/url][/i] 23 Total, 12 war mode/11 peace mode

Thus solely fighting in the 100k plus range, the advantage goes in favor of the defenders. Although the aggressive side does have a second wave in peace mode and ready to bring out. Of course one thing to keep in mind is you don't have to be 100k to attack a 100k nation. To hit a 120k nation takes 90.3k NS. A 110k nation requires 83k NS.


[u]Nations 90k to 100k:[/u] 47
[url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=Anarchy%20Inc."][i]Anarchy Inc:[/i][/url] 12
[url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=Independent%20Republic%20Of%20Orange%20Nations"][i]IRON:[/i][/url] 14
[i][url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=NATO"]NATO:[/url][/i] 7
[i][url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=New%20Pacific%20Order"]NPO:[/url][/i] 5
[i][url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=The%20Imperial%20Order"]TIO:[/url][/i] 9


[u]Nations 80k to 90k:[/u] 60
[url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=Anarchy%20Inc."][i]Anarchy Inc:[/i][/url] 13
[url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=Independent%20Republic%20Of%20Orange%20Nations"][i]IRON:[/i][/url] 19
[i][url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=NATO"]NATO:[/url][/i] 6
[i][url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=New%20Pacific%20Order"]NPO:[/url] [/i]13
[i][url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=The%20Imperial%20Order"]TIO:[/url][/i] 9

[u]Nations 75k to 80k:[/u] 35
[url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=Anarchy%20Inc."][i]Anarchy Inc:[/i][/url] 9
[url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=Independent%20Republic%20Of%20Orange%20Nations"][i]IRON:[/i][/url] 10
[i][url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=NATO"]NATO:[/url][/i] 3
[i][url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=New%20Pacific%20Order"]NPO:[/url][/i] 5
[i][url="http://www.cybernations.net/allNations_display_alliances.asp?Alliance=The%20Imperial%20Order"]TIO:[/url][/i] 8


Of course as the sub 100k NS nations come into the war, MK and TOP could also commit their own lower NS nations, which in turn allows for the aggressors to commit even weaker nations and so on and so forth. However if MK, TOP, and Umbrella manage to keep the majority of their nations above the 120k mark and everyone else in peace mode, they will enjoy numerical superiority. As their nations fall below this mark though, the door opens for more aggressor nations to jump in and contribute to the Nuke A Day grind.

As it stands though, despite the total weight of NS directed against DH, they actually enjoy numerical superiority in the upper range. They can further expand that by having members of C&G or other treaty partners selectively enter with just their upper tier nations against targets that won't run the risk of chaining in people like Non Grata on the aggressor's side.

I'll run these stats again at the end of the week and see who has what standing above the 100k and 120k NS marks.

[Aeros]

Its delusional for Doomhouse to think this war can be won solely in the upper tier. The true power of the coalition is in their massive depth of mid-tier nations. Unless DH's upper tier have ungodly warchests that allow them to keep buying out of the strong mid range, they are going to be following the Equilibrium upper tier down into the Pirhanna tank. Unless their own Mid tier is present to run interference its going to get ugly for them, since all that needs be done then is use place holder wars to keep the DH upper tier well nuked and unable to redeclare or escape into Peacemode while the the Equilibrium upper tier gets a collection in and returns to the fray.

[ToaSithe]

Sheer numbers > an Umbrella.

[CubaQuerida]

Entertaining read, and very thorough. I just hope it means something. One thing to consider is how fast infra numbers drop compared to tech, and the NS implications derived from that. Keep it up.

[Vasily Blyukher]

[quote name='CubaQuerida' timestamp='1358795837' post='3082477']
Entertaining read, and very thorough. I just hope it means something. One thing to consider is how fast infra numbers drop compared to tech, and the NS implications derived from that. Keep it up.
[/quote]

Thanks. Your point about infra drops as well taken. I've been assuming that really two options are on the table.

If the upper tier of DH+Friends can keep those 111 nations in anarchy, which isn't that hard with nukes, a lot of Umbrella nations can in a sense buy their way to safety, assuming they end the current war cycle with the cash on hand. Rebuy infra (or whatever is the most cost effective in terms of NS inflation) right before the stagger starts expiring and shoot for a NS where they are immune to redeclares since everyone on the other side is in anarchy. While that kind of infra purchase in a war would be a major drain, it would get you clear of the mid to upper mid tier grind. If you had enough infra, you should in theory be able to weather the third day and hit an end point where you are can enter peace mode or just hang out and collect. Of course that means the mid tier of Umbrella gets left behind and has to settle for enjoying the fact that they can fire three nukes (assuming all three defense slots are filled) a day versus taking one per day.

Or alternatively we'll see the lower boundary of TOP and MK members in war mode starts to drop as they call in their own midtier to support the nations that were ground down.

If I was more dedicated, I'd track the infra of individual nations to see if they were buying their way clear, but I assume the lower boundary of the MK and TOP war mode will serve as a proxy measure. That shows commitment to fighting in lower tiers as opposed to buy your way clear orders.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Vasily Blyukher

[WarriorConcept]

Enjoyable read, well done.

[Aeternos Astramora]

Pretty good. I'm curious as to what the stats will be when you include all likely alliances.

Is there some sort of semi-official stats Google document that someone/a group of people are keeping updated semi-regularly?

[Cataduanes]

I wish to echo others in praise of this effort, well done.

[Sigrun Vapneir]

[quote name='Vasily Blyukher' timestamp='1358784618' post='3082340']
[b]The Aggressors[/b][/quote]

Lol.

[quote]
As it stands though, despite the total weight of NS directed against DH, they actually enjoy numerical superiority in the upper range. They can further expand that by having members of C&G or other treaty partners selectively enter with just their upper tier nations against targets that won't run the risk of chaining in people like Non Grata on the aggressor's side.
[/quote]

They do enjoy the numerical superiority in the high end. I think you have very unrealistic expectations as to what that buys them, however.

Keeping everyone below 100k in PM is a marginally effective policy for the TOP-heavy alliances currently involved. They can watch their lower tiers get sick of huddling in PM like cowards and leave without being too concerned. Other alliances that might come in to help them dont have that luxury, and if they try to put most of their membership in PM and keep them there for the duration of the war they will disintegrate.

So the numerical superiority in the top tier was a good intimidator. It ensured no one could make this move without taking an awful lot of damage. It was a strong hand and some strong bets were made on it, but those bets have been called and you know what? It's a strong hand but it's not strong enough to win. The Equilibrium upper tiers arent bothered by the prospect of getting their faces smashed a few times to drag their opponents down to where "little" nations in the 75-100k range can pick them up and continue the job. Once that happens they are assured of a long slide down a very steep hill and no way to stop it but to surrender.

And having their own nations in that latter range go to peace mode at this time was not a genius move. If they had done it at least 3-4 days ago, it would have made sense. Now, I suspect it will do at least as much harm as good to their war effort.

[quote name='CubaQuerida' timestamp='1358795837' post='3082477']
Entertaining read, and very thorough. I just hope it means something. One thing to consider is how fast infra numbers drop compared to tech, and the NS implications derived from that. Keep it up.
[/quote]

Yes, you lose infra faster than tech. But for those of us sitting on a solid ratio to start with, there is no fear of a nation with lots of tech and little infra. It's even possible to pull more tech off one of those than their nukes eat, because they will have no nuke stockpile to spam with and multiple opponents by the time we see them.

[Daikos]

Interesting read, thanks for putting this together.

[Steve Buscemi]

Good stats and stuff. Thanks. I think the bigger question is finding coverage on 1k infra 15-20k tech nations. It's hard for most alliances to keep throwing nations at people like that. War weariness takes hold pretty fast against turtling nuke turrets.

Also lets not turn this into a defenders over aggressor's debate. Some of us just like pure strategy of this all, not the politics.

[tayloj7]

good read, thanks! will be interesting to see how this plays out

(also agree with the please don't bring politics into this, yay strategy thread)

[commander thrawn]

[quote name='Aeros' timestamp='1358785350' post='3082351']
Unless DH's upper tier have ungodly warchests...
[/quote]

Check and check.

[steodonn]

[quote][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Unless DH's upper tier have ungodly warchests that allow them to keep buying out of the strong mid range[/font][/color][/quote]

Alot of nations could if that was the plan

[Do Not Fear Jazz]

[quote name='commander thrawn' timestamp='1358824572' post='3082829']
Check and check.
[/quote]

Got to the end of the thread, you beat me to this post.

[MCRABT]

This was a good analysis, well done. I wouldn't simply presume however that DH nations are the only folks with solid warchests, especially in the upper tier.

[King Louis the II]

Good read it would be good to see the same numbers in a couple of days.

[Vasily Blyukher]

So I see we've picked up some new fronts in the war. A pair of large group DOWs, plus the arrival of the Indonesians and friends hitting The Int as well.

First on the TOP front, we see the arrival of a number of nations. As to their upper tier impact.

[b][u]TOP Front[/u][/b]
As mentioned above, TOP seems to be fighting mainly in the 100k range right now and keeping their other nations shield. Thus control for that top tier is still what really matters.

[b]The Phoenix Federation[/b]
[i]>100k:[/i] 8 war/8 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]7
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]7
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]4

[b]Sengoku[/b]
[i]>100k[/i]: 2 war/2 peace
[i]90k to 100k[/i]: 3
[i]80k to 90k[/i]: 1
[i]75k to 80k:[/i] 2

[b]TORN[/b]
[i]>100K: [/i]2 war/1 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]3
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]2
[i]75k to 80k[/i]: 1

[b]GLOF:[/b]
[i]>100k:[/i] 14 war/2 peace
[i]90k to 100k:[/i] 2
[i]80k to 90k:[/i] 7
[i]75k to 80k:[/i] 2

[b]AB:[/b]
[i]>100k:[/i] 6 war/1 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]1
[i]80k to 90k:[/i] 3
[i]75k to 80k:[/i] 0

[b]The Dark Templar:[/b]
[i]>100k:[/i] 15 war/2 peace
[i]90k to 100k:[/i] 6
[i]80k to 90k:[/i] 3
[i]75k to 90k:[/i] 3

[b]Nebula-X:[/b]
[i]>100k:[/i] 0
[i]90k to 100k:[/i] 0
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]1
[i]75k to 80k:[/i] 1

[b]Argent:[/b]
[i]>100k: [/i]10 war mode
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]1
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]3
[i]75k to 80k:[/i] 1

[b]Molon Labe:[/b]
Note: Alliance has 21 nations, 20 are in peace mode
[i]>100k:[/i] 5 peace mode
[i]90k to 100k:[/i] 0
[i]80k to 90k:[/i] 3
[i]75k to 80k:[/i] 0

[b]Total:[/b]
>100k: 57 war mode/21 peace mode
90k to 100k: 23
80k to 90k: 30
75k to 80k: 14

The first thing is, I'd imagine if you're one of the sub 100k NS TOP nations that missed peace mode orders, right about now you're resolving to check CN much more frequently. Most of the declaring strength from this group is hammering away in that range. That said currently TOP has 31 nations active, which means 93 defensive war slots. This DoW brings 78 nations, 234 war slots, to the above 100k NS range. That provides plenty of coverage of TOP's defensive slots. In fact if this coalition gets support in the form of additional Equilibrium nations, each nation would only need to declare one war on TOP. Although such a tactic does allow TOP to fire off 93 nukes while taking only 31 in this area. Likely a balance must be struck in terms of assuring the TOP nations get a nuke a day and staggers are kept, while trying to keep the nuclear exchange rate from vastly favoring TOP.

Just out of pure academic interest, TOP has historically helped itself avoid the upper tier dogpile via both domestic production of large nations and having a little bloc of high ANS alliances. As it stands TOP of course still treaty ties to TSO, OG and The Order of the Reaper (assuming the wiki is accurate), but historically they also tended to be close to Argent. So for the fun of it I broke out Argent from the above, at which point we have:


[b]Total, sans Argent:[/b]
>100k: 47 war mode/21 peace mode
90k to 100k: 22
80k to 90k: 27
75k to 80k: 13

While Argent doesn't offer much help in terms of avoiding the grinder once you start falling, a neutral Argent would chop out 11 nations capable of hitting at 120k NS or higher from the first wave, for 33 war slots taken out. In turn that might have forced this wave to come in with a smaller peace mode reserve or just lead to more alliances being deployed on TOP. If TOP and Argent remained allied that would of course have even more benefit. If any of TOP's partners counter this wave, just for fun I'll add Argent into the counter and see what does versus Argent being part of the OPFOR.


[u][b]The ODN/Int Front[/b][/u]
The ODN/Int front isn't as clean as this front has opted to engage in mid tier fighting, which is likely only getting worse as the rest of C&G rolls in. That said, what we have in the upper tier is:

[b]GOD[/b]
[i]>100k:[/i] 2 war
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]2
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]0
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]2

[b]LSF:[/b]
Not applicable, highest NS nation is 56k.

[b]RIA:[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 4 war
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]4
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]3
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]3

[b]RnR:[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 10 war/2 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]3
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]7
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]1

[b]ROK:[/b]
[i]>100k:[/i] 4 war
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]4
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]5
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]0

[b]Invicta:[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 1 war
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]1
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]2
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]1

[b]NADC:[/b]

[i]>100k: [/i]2 war/1 peace
[i]90k to 100k:[/i] 0
[i]80k to 90k:[/i] 9
[i]75k to 80k:[/i] 0

[b]MHA:[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 11 war/1 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]9
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]10
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]2

[b]NpO:[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 6 war/1 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]3
[i]80k to 90k:[/i] 9
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]6

[b]TTK:[/b]
[i]>100k:[/i] 7 war/1 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]1
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]1
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]0

[b]CCC:[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 6 war/1 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]2
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]2
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]1

[b]Sparta:[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 8 war/3 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]3
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]3
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]3

[b]Avalanche:[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 3 war/2 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]1
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]0
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]1

[b]MCXA:[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 2 war
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]4
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]6
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]5

[b]FARK:[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 1 war
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]1
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]5
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]5

[b]NPL:[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 1 war
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]0
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]3
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]2

[b]CRAP:[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 3 war/2 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]3
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]2
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]2

[b]Legion:[/b]
[i]>100k:[/i] 5 war
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]3
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]6
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]3

[b]NEW[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 15 war/1 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]4
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]6
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]3

[b]DBD[/b]

[i]>100k:[/i] 4 war/6 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]1
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]2
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]2

[b]Total:[/b]
[i]>100k:[/i] 95 war/21 peace
[i]90k to 100k: [/i]49
[i]80k to 90k: [/i]80
[i]75k to 80k: [/i]42



So for all those signatures and all those alliances I had to look up, still only 95 nations in the >100k range. Of course course that is 95 versus 30 ODN/Int nations. This gives the aggressors the ability to fill every war slot with 5 to spare and 21 nations in reserve currently. This is subject to change though based on C&G rolling in in, with GATO and TLR capable of contributing 40 >100k NS nations to the fight. It is interesting to note that if the upper tier INT/ODN nations can avoid falling down into the shark tank, they'd be fighting at 116 vs ~70 based on just C&G fighting on this front. So despite all the signatures and all that, C&G isn't even facing 2:1 odds at this point, pending of course other people chaining in.

[b][u]The Big Picture[/u][/b]
The big picture shows one where TOP and ODN/Int are well covered currently, but neither of these groups are facing terrible odds right now assuming they can keep the ANS of their fighters high and C&G honors its treaties. If the forces arrayed against TOP borrow nations from Equilibrium they'd have 3 to 1 coverage on TOP. However that just lets TOP maximize damage output and if they manage to keep all 91 of those nations in anarchy, they could still potential dip into peace mode given a NS high enough to avoid upward war declarations. ODN/Int has a huge upper tier disadvantage, but it isn't so bad for C&G as a whole. Another thing is that by not peace moding out its lower tiers, ODN/Int has assured that a lot of the smaller nations, those that could declare upward on falling nations, are in anarchy themselves. While the new DoWs bring in a massive force in this range, there is active fighting already going on in this range, reducing the number available to strike upwards as ODN and Ints big guys fall.

Related to the idea of the forces fighting TOP calling in Equilibrium aid, I will for the moment assume that MK and Umbrella are now the two high ANS forces left facing Equilibrium. That's 69 DH nations vs 111 Equilibrium nations. So not even 2:1 odds prior to Equilibrium forces potentially being detailed to other fronts due to coverage issues.

The take away seems to be that while we saw two major DoWs, nothing was really decisive. On the ODN/Int front I'm interesting to see if the SF/XX/whatever you want to call that group has shot its bolt or not. When the rest of C&G roles in, the upper tier fighting for C&G as a whole won't be terrible, in addition some of the alliances on this front suffered repeated beat downs which means some warchests might not be up to spec. Also potentially underteched aggressor (ex: Polar has one guy above 10k tech) nations would further swing the damage output in favor of the C&G side. Each underteched nation that launches a nuke means that not only is potentially SF/XX firing fewer nukes, they're firing less effective ones. This is of course all speculation just based on the recent past of some alliances, the stats will tell the truth soon enough.

So the aggressor force is facing a bit of a challenge. On one hand they want to go 3 to 1 with wars and ensure every TOP/ODN/Int nation takes a nuke, 6 air strikes, 6 CMs, and as many ground attacks as possible to grind down NS. The quicker they grind the big nations down into the range where 75k+ nations can swarm in, the sooner they get better odds. However if they commit their entire force to this and fail to grind their targets down, they run the risk of their larger nations being in anarchy in a week and the target nations slipping off to peace mode to rearm. Plus it gives TOP/ODN/Int a great chance to fire off lots of really powerful nukes at the start of the war while they still have most of their prewar tech and full silos. I'd speculate this is why there is a modest reserve in peace mode. The reserve can be deployed to occupy slots and fight 1 v 1 for a time while the main force gets itself out of nuclear anarchy and back into the fray.

At the end of all this, what I think will be interesting to watch is where the DH side counters and who shows up to counter. For one example The Order of the Reaper ties to both TOP and MK, so which front they get pulled on (if any) will be interesting. People could be pulled in to try for close to 1:1 odds on all the fronts, or one front could be stacked. The other interesting thing will be when DH calls the next wave in. They could bring them in quickly and try to even up the odds or keep them on the sidelines for a while before unleashing them as a rested reserve force against war torn nations. Non Grata continues to enjoy significant status as a wild card in that they could either equalize a front on their own for DH or heavily skew the odds in favor of Equilibrium on a front.

[Alterego]

[quote name='Vasily Blyukher' timestamp='1358784618' post='3082340']
[b]The Aggressors[/b]

[/quote]

cute but wrong

[Roadie]

This is the best analysis thread I've seen in any war. Great work.

[Sephiroth]

If they try to keep most of the war in really high NS, then that seems like it would be a huge drain on their war chests re-buying expensive infra and requiring them to allow a large portion of nations to get destroyed badly who can't afford to keep their NS up. I think with nations declaring upwards and nuking daily, these big NS nations can all eventually be brought down into range of more and more nations.

[Vasily Blyukher]

[quote name='MCRABT' timestamp='1358864849' post='3083661']
This was a good analysis, well done. I wouldn't simply presume however that DH nations are the only folks with solid warchests, especially in the upper tier.
[/quote]

Excellent point. I mostly framed it in the context of DH having the warchests as they'd be the ones who need to tap them to stay above a NS that keeps them free of the shark tank. Whereas on the other side, mass buys would only need to happen if they find themselves lacking nations to keep war slots filled. It was not intended as a slur against one side, so much as one side may need to tap their warchest to cover additional expenses.

[quote name='Steve Buscemi' timestamp='1358813447' post='3082678']
Good stats and stuff. Thanks. I think the bigger question is finding coverage on 1k infra 15-20k tech nations. It's hard for most alliances to keep throwing nations at people like that. War weariness takes hold pretty fast against turtling nuke turrets.

Also lets not turn this into a defenders over aggressor's debate. Some of us just like pure strategy of this all, not the politics.
[/quote]

My personal two cents would be we'll likely see the line between the TOP and C&G front blur in the coming weeks. There is now this giant mass of mid tier NS floating around that could be put on the nuke turrets and commanders will likely grab whoever reports in. It definitely would be interesting to see if any nations opt to be slow in terms of obeying orders or the like because they're sick of eating nukes fueled by 15k tech. I'd hope they wouldn't surrender given their superiority in that tier, but rather just be unable to make update or otherwise drag their heels. In the coming weeks I may have to start tracking what percentage of the lower NS groups are in peace more or have mysteriously failed to DoW on anyone.

As side note for readers, when one side of a front has incentives to declare offensive wars, I will refer to them as aggressors or the like due to the fact their intent is to be aggressive with their war declarations at the start of the next round. Each round is a tactical process as part of a strategic victory and each round will have an aggressor force.

[Proest]

Umbrella does have quite a chunk of money compared to many of the spy reports I've seen of nations from the opposite side. It'll be interesting to see who starts running out of the piles of money first.

[Holy Empire of Halin]

This is a very well thought out analysis and an enjoyable read (something that rarely happens). Good work, and please keep updating.

[Lusitan]

[quote name='MCRABT' timestamp='1358864849' post='3083661']
This was a good analysis, well done. I wouldn't simply presume however that DH nations are the only folks with solid warchests, especially in the upper tier.
[/quote]

There's also AI.