What will the next war look like?

[zzzptm]

I can see several scenarios for the next major war. I thought I'd start a discussion with other interested nation leaders. Some will try their hand and propagandizing, others will participate in the spirit of enlightened discourse.

Here are the scenarios I can see leading to war. Feel free to offer correction or supplementation as your experience sees proper.

1. [b]Pacifican revenge.[/b] NPO gets its old gang back together and starts gunning for its enemies.
Short term outlook: Not likely. Numbers are not yet on Pacifica's side.
Long term outlook: Very likely. Once C&G/SF splits - or if a resurgent Pacifica makes itself useful in a war resulting from such a split - they have a strong chance at having a large enough bloc to re-establish themselves in an eminent position of world power. NPO would have to be careful to avoid being drawn out by a fake split designed to put it out in the open for another beat-down.

2. [b]C&G/SF split.[/b] The Big One that makes everyone pick a side, for better or for worse.
Short term outlook: Not likely. They all have a sense of humor, so they tend to forgive each others' shortcomings more easily. Although they are a chaotic and informal bloc, they maintain a watchful eye on NPO and its old gang.
Long term outlook: Low likelihood. The split is eventual. All things come to an end. Just ask the signatories of WUT. But would a split necessarily lead immediately to an outbreak of war? I doubt it.

3. [b]Tech raid gone wrong.[/b] A raider hits the wrong AA and his alliance deals with public nukes instead of private channels.
Short term outlook: Moderately likely. Public mood is becoming less tolerant of aggressive actions. Raiding alliances have been warned, but raiders always make mistakes. One of them will result in an alliance going for it and activating its treaties to deal with the raiding AA. The question is this: would the allies of the raiding AA come to its aid if they felt the other alliance was overreacting? If yes, we could see a large war result. There's enough chaining, it could result in eventually growing into one of the above scenarios.
Long term outlook: Even more likely. It's a matter of when, not if.

4. [b]Rolling a neutral AA.[/b] There was once an alliance of lambs that took a wombat into their midst. The wombat was on the run from a pack of werewolves, and...
Short term outlook: Not likely. No neutral AA is #1 and large-scale acts of aggression could trigger other AAs into paperless support of the target. Therefore, the neutrals aren't targets.
Long term outlook: Not likely. Unless several major blocs decide to eradicate the Neutral Menace, it ain't gonna happen.
Really long term outlook: Somewhat likely. If we don't have regular wars on Planeta Roberto, people start looking for targets.

5. [b]Micro AA war getting out of control.[/b] The 57th Overlanders nearly did it, too!
Short term outlook: Not likely. I say not likely simply because such wars are unpredictable. They're one-in-a-million chances, but they can still happen. When they do, alliances will find the weirdest treaties getting activated.
Long term outlook: Still not likely. Probably because we might actually see fewer small AAs as time goes on, given the general reduction and consolidation of nations on Planeta Roberto.

What do you think?

[WalkerNinja]

If the last war is any indicator, the next war will look like a pack of chimpanzees trying to hump a football.

[supercoolyellow]

I would say #5 is far more likely in the near term. Its almost happened how many times the past few week?

[quote name='WalkerNinja' date='16 July 2010 - 11:37 AM' timestamp='1279298238' post='2374595']
If the last war is any indicator, the next war will look like a pack of chimpanzees trying to hump a football.
[/quote]

+10 internets for that.

Edited July 16, 2010 by supercoolyellow

[Sardonic]

[quote name='zzzptm' date='16 July 2010 - 11:28 AM' timestamp='1279297695' post='2374586']
The question is this: would the allies of the raiding AA come to its aid if they felt the other alliance was overreacting?
[/quote]
You better believe it! I seriously doubt anything like that will happen though, unless both aggrieved parties want it to blow up intentionally.
Beyond that though I don't think we can really say what the next war will be, but we all know who the losers are going to be.

[Alterego]

You forgot SG & allies beat down whoever is not connected to then for some crap reason. Number one isnt that likely.

Edited July 16, 2010 by Alterego

[Qazzian]

Short term, I don't think any of those are likely. Long term, that changes (but I have no idea which one would be more likely). I think that a neutralist alliance brawl is more likely in the next couple of months than any of the presented options.

And WalkerNinja: Thank you for the almost perfect metaphor for the last war

[D34th]

What saddens me is there isn't a real possibility of war in a short term outlook.

[Branimir]

Well, seems war isn't very likely anytime soon.

Some remarks that come to my mind.
[quote name='zzzptm' date='16 July 2010 - 06:28 PM' timestamp='1279297695' post='2374586']NPO gets its old gang back together and starts gunning for its enemies.[/quote]
That is working from a premise how NPO wants to get the old gang back together, or how they would want that too.

That is certainly quite naive premise, mostly a result of not giving it a second thought, or enough thought. I dont think there is any desire for such from any direction in case of majority of the "gang", like Sparta, MHA, FOK, or to go to even "older" gang; NpO, VE, etc.
I quite doubt the "gang" is coming back together.

In the second scenario, I think you are too lightly discounting a possible war between the two current major blocks. I honestly think it is just a matter of time. But a lot of time. They "share" a sense of humor? lol So what? Of course its always possible that one block crumbles on its own.

We already covered the 3th and I think thats all she wrote about that for any conceivable time.

So yeah. I dunno. Some curbstomp will be the next war.

War! huh-yeah
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing
Uh-huh

War! huh-yeah
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing
Say it again y'all

[Chief Savage Man]

The next war will be like the last one. Totally off the wall and unexpected.

[zzzptm]

[quote name='Sardonic' date='16 July 2010 - 11:50 AM' timestamp='1279298988' post='2374613']
You better believe it! I seriously doubt anything like that will happen though, unless both aggrieved parties want it to blow up intentionally.
Beyond that though I don't think we can really say what the next war will be, but we all know who the losers are going to be.
[/quote]

I agree. While most raids gone wrong are resolved diplomatically - and to the satisfaction of the aggrieved parties - all it takes is one faction to dig in its heels and then the war follows. Had Polaris and \m/ not gotten peace just before IRON and TOP went in, January would have been a much different month.

Most alliances are of a diplomatic mindset these days. It's not at all like the walking on eggshells most people did in between the UJW and Karma War.

[Daimos]

It is going to be a combination of all the above except scenario 4.

Micro AA war getting out of control resulting to a Tech raid gone wrong, resulting to C&G/SF dispute with NPO choosing a side fueled by Pacifican revenge

[Chief Savage Man]

Also I don't see TOP in any of these situations. They're not going to sit around after they finish terms you know.

[zzzptm]

[quote name='Chief Savage Man' date='16 July 2010 - 11:59 AM' timestamp='1279299567' post='2374635']
Also I don't see TOP in any of these situations. They're not going to sit around after they finish terms you know.
[/quote]

NPO-TOP-IRON leading a bloc, then?

[Buds The Man]

You forgot one other possibility it seems people are looking to pull pranks and all it will take is one miss reaction to something to set it off again. Considering the mixed reaction across bob to said jokes it may take the treaty web and shred it. Its a little far fetched but still possible.

[Dochartaigh]

You still forgot SG/friends mopping up style wars.

[angryraccoon]

The next war will be me and you ... zzzptm.

Forget the bubblegum we are going for Jaw Breakers.

[Facade]

[quote name='zzzptm' date='16 July 2010 - 12:28 PM' timestamp='1279297695' post='2374586']
4. [b]Rolling a neutral AA.[/b] There was once an alliance of lambs that took a wombat into their midst. The wombat was on the run from a pack of werewolves, and...
Short term outlook: Not likely. No neutral AA is #1 and large-scale acts of aggression could trigger other AAs into paperless support of the target. Therefore, the neutrals aren't targets.
Long term outlook: Not likely. Unless several major blocs decide to eradicate the Neutral Menace, it ain't gonna happen.
Really long term outlook: Somewhat likely. If we don't have regular wars on Planeta Roberto, people start looking for targets.

What do you think?
[/quote]

I think this scenario should be the most likely. It just will take CN to realize that working together to get rid of some of the boredom is a good thing when you're eliminating alliances that don't do anything. Down with the neutral menace.

[Ashoka the Great]

[quote name='Buds The Man' date='16 July 2010 - 01:10 PM' timestamp='1279300220' post='2374656']
You forgot one other possibility it seems people are looking to pull pranks and all it will take is one miss reaction to something to set it off again. Considering the mixed reaction across bob to said jokes it may take the treaty web and shred it. Its a little far fetched but still possible.
[/quote]

If the world should 'evolve' into nothing more than a place where practical jokes are made, I'll take my leave long before any war begins.

[Feanor Noldorin]

[quote name='Chief Savage Man' date='16 July 2010 - 11:59 AM' timestamp='1279299567' post='2374635']
Also I don't see TOP in any of these situations. They're not going to sit around after they finish terms you know.
[/quote]
Be afraid.

[img]http://ordoparadox.com/top/public/style_emoticons/default/mr_burns.gif[/img]

Edited July 16, 2010 by Feanor Noldorin

[Moridin]

The only way a [i]balanced[/i] war could occur at this point is a SF/C&G split, or at least a split within one of those blocs. Anyone who thinks that TOP/IRON/NPO together could somehow overcome SF and C&G is living off pre-Karma paranoia. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of there being an imbalanced war on the horizon though, in which case #4 is a possibility. I highly doubt the NPO is dumb enough for #1 to even be a remote possibility without SF and/or C&G fracturing first.

[Sande]

I don't know which scenario will occur but I know 100% that it will begin with a 200-page topic where people whine over the CB.

[cookavich]

[quote name='Chief Savage Man' date='16 July 2010 - 12:57 PM' timestamp='1279299419' post='2374626']
The next war will be like the last one. Totally off the wall and unexpected.
[/quote]Just the way I like it.

[savethecheerleader]

I say we all just agree to roll TDO. Their flag is ugly, their pip is an eyesore, and just look at all that tech. Sitting there. Useless in the hands of the meek.

[Mirreille]

Number 1 is ridiculous, and I can't understand why so many otherwise intelligent people keep talking about it like it could happen. Maybe in the magical happy fairy land of red ballons it could, but not here. If the NPO does end up in a position of power again, it won't be because they got the old gang together and rode everyone else down. Way too many people who simply won't let that happen, for one. The relationships that NPO had that gave them that power aren't there anymore for another. This is a joke, used by SG propogansda people to try and keep their own rank & file hiding under their beds at night. It's not working.

Number 2 I could actually see happening. It's not highly probable, no. But I base my view on the fact that it IS such a good, close relationship; When those fall apart, the divorce can become bitter since both sides feel hurt and betrayed by people they trusted so much. THAT happens all the time. How they handle any split will be critical.

3 & 5 are entirely possible. You never know when one of those little flareups could balloon into something bigger, and they are happening all the time, these potential little sparks.

Number 4..... I don't know. Doesn't seem likely at all, and I suspect people are going to be busy with other things, but it happened before, so I guess it is possible. Just very, very unlikely.

You are missing some scenarios I think. Like a rival/grudge fight, that drags in allies on either side. Alliance A and Alliance B don't like each other, so they either go looking for a CB, or one wobbly one shows up and they take advantage of it even if it is thin because it's on that group they despise. Depending on how allies chain in, it could get pretty messy. These types probably pop up all the time, but mostly get solved diplomtically. All it takes is one mishandling though, and it could happen. There is probably a lot of pressure though to stop any unplanned wars from the diplomats.

[Shakira]

[quote name='WalkerNinja' date='16 July 2010 - 11:37 AM' timestamp='1279298238' post='2374595']
If the last war is any indicator, the next war will look like a pack of chimpanzees trying to hump a football.
[/quote]
Bravo, my good man, bravo.