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[Pick a Number Game] Round 2 <$$Free Money Giveaway$$>


Sephiroth
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Rules the same as the last one. Pick a number 1-1000, guess which number I'm writing down now. You're disqualified if you edit your post or post more than once before the contest is over. The contest ends when someone gets it right. I'll send out the aid to 1st, 2nd and 3rd when my slots free up from sending it out for the previous round.

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root(-1)

Edit:
You realize how improbable it is that someone will get this?
Assuming that you have written three numbers down, it requires 203 people to guess before you have more than a 50% chance for them to guess one right.

Edited by Caladin
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root(-1)

Edit:
You realize how improbable it is that someone will get this?
Assuming that you have written three numbers down, it requires 203 people to guess before you have more than a 50% chance for them to guess one right.


Some numbers are chosen more often than others, though.
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root(-1)

Edit:
You realize how improbable it is that someone will get this?
Assuming that you have written three numbers down, it requires 203 people to guess before you have more than a 50% chance for them to guess one right.

There is also probably well over a 50% chance someone will guess it far before then, since with each wrong guess there is a higher chance the next person gets. When you accumulate all the chances people have had, it would probably be very unlikely for it to reach 100 guesses without someone guessing it. It didn't take hundreds to guess it last time, so I think there is a very high chance someone will guess it before my aid slots free up from the last game.

 

Either way this is just for fun and part of the fun is seeing who can guess it, as well as see how close people get and how long it takes.

Edited by Methrage
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There is also probably well over a 50% chance someone will guess it far before then, since with each wrong guess there is a higher chance the next person gets. When you accumulate all the chances people have had, it would probably be very unlikely for it to reach 100 guesses without someone guessing it. It didn't take hundreds to guess it last time, so I think there is a very high chance someone will guess it before my aid slots free up from the last game.
 
Either way this is just for fun and part of the fun is seeing who can guess it, as well as see how close people get and how long it takes.


You're assuming that nobody picks the same number twice, which isn't certain, as the available numbers aren't removed from circulation and I can't see many people checking the numbers to see if their number has been selected before.
Doesn't matter though, because I assumed the same thing, for simplicities sake, though I did make the mistake of assuming you had three numbers there, rather than just one, so the actual number who would need to guess, before the chance one of them was right reached 50% is 499
 

Some numbers are chosen more often than others, though.


Hereno has a good point here, though.

Edit:
I'd suggest letting people guess more than once; I doubt you'll get 100 people guessing, let alone the numbers probality says you need. Maybe let them guess once every 24 hours? Edited by Caladin
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