Upper Tier Tracking Thread

[Farnsworth]

VE are stat huggers now?

The keyword that you're neglecting is "IF"... He said "if" and I, in attempting to explain in layman's terms, also said "if". The extent to which they like their stats and one may then arguably call them a stat hugger (despite any dearth of infra or stats to hug), he suggests, may be determined by their willingness to be ground down to a shell of their former selves, and therein resemble GOONS.

 

It's cute, though, that people keep trying to misunderstand what he meant and also now my explanation of it.

[rsoxbronco1]

The keyword that you're neglecting is "IF"... He said "if" and I, in attempting to explain in layman's terms, also said "if". The extent to which they like their stats and one may then arguably call them a stat hugger (despite any dearth of infra or stats to hug), he suggests, may be determined by their willingness to be ground down to a shell of their former selves, and therein resemble GOONS.

 

It's cute, though, that people keep trying to misunderstand what he meant and also now my explanation of it.

"IF" we have to keep trying to figure out exactly what he said, he should have either worded it differently or not at all.

 

Ideas that cannot be communicated with clarity and succinctity should usually be kept to oneself.

Edited February 18, 2013 by rsoxbronco1

[Saladjoe]

I think some alliances that we could see leaving on both sides are as follows:

 

Equilibrium

AZTEC alliances

The Dark Templar

NEW

 

Competence

TSO

TOP

-----------------------------

The difference between the quitters for Equilibrium is that the coalition doesn't really "need" them. If TOP leaves, it would mean dishonoring the Reaver Accords with Umbrella, The Unholy Alliance with MK, and the Concordia Compact with TSO. If TOP leaves, TSO leaves. And the question to "Who wins the war?" is really "Which side is more patient?"

 

Equilibrium needs to hold fast to its guns and slowly scrape away at Competence, while the latter needs to somehow justify the destruction of vast amounts of tech in the defense of Umbrella (or in defense of the Hegemony...or why ever it is everyone is fighting).

Surely you jest.

 

Also I love how someone else has to literally explain step by step what the heck Antycrist is trying to say.

[Farnsworth]

I'm doing it to help Bob's large population of nincompoops. They have difficultly connecting the dots. 

Edited February 18, 2013 by Farnsworth

[Chad]

You obviously know nothing of TOP if you expect them to be one of the first ones out.

If someone is going to leave the Competence Coalition, it's going to be them. If anyone is going to leave in Equilibrium, it'll be AZTEC. If TOP leaves, it'll be a major blow to Competence and will pave the road for TSO and a couple others to jump ship as well. If AZTEC leaves...well...Equilibrium loses AZTEC and that's about it.

 

And IDK if you noticed, but TOP is being throttled hard. And unless TOP is going to stay with CnG until DH is done with whatever it is they are trying to accomplish, they will continue to be smashed and DH could really care less. It would be in TOPs interest to leave just to save themselves (or what's left).

Edited February 18, 2013 by Isotope

[Auctor]

If someone is going to leave the Competence Coalition, it's going to be them. If anyone is going to leave in Equilibrium, it'll be AZTEC. If TOP leaves, it'll be a major blow to Competence and will pave the road for TSO and a couple others to jump ship as well. If AZTEC leaves...well...Equilibrium loses AZTEC and that's about it.

 

hrm, let's test this theory.

 

For science gentlemen! FOR SCIENCE!

[WorldConqueror]

If someone is going to leave the Competence Coalition, it's going to be them. If anyone is going to leave in Equilibrium, it'll be AZTEC. If TOP leaves, it'll be a major blow to Competence and will pave the road for TSO and a couple others to jump ship as well. If AZTEC leaves...well...Equilibrium loses AZTEC and that's about it.
 
And IDK if you noticed, but TOP is being throttled hard. And unless TOP is going to stay with CnG until DH is done with whatever it is they are trying to accomplish, they will continue to be smashed and DH could really care less. It would be in TOPs interest to leave just to save themselves (or what's left).

And I don't know if you noticed, but TOP is no stranger to tough wars. The shitpile of alliances you've thrown at them simply isn't going to break them any time soon.

[magicninja]

So 104  100k+(currently) nuke turrets can easily cover their 80k and up nations as long as we destroy these pesky 19 that remain above 100k (in war mode).....Sweet. This top down thing can work out after all. I'm in it at this point to see how far we can push down the collective ceiling of the other side. Looking at this and the coverage we could do (optimum of course). I don't think 50-60k  is too far out of the question depending on how effective nuke turrets can be. Looks like 2 targets a piece for a week......alongside the 50 or so of our own 80 k guys......Then we'd move to the real mid tier. See what they have around 60-70k layer that we can declare down on and cover with in range nuke turrets. By this time a lot of the larger nuke turrets will be out of range of most unless of course they get brought down in that week of fighting. SHould be an interesting conclusion when we come to it. Still got 19 nations to dispatch it seems..

[Zoomzoomzoom]

Damn TOP, what'd you guys do to suddenly become sort of cowardly AA in the eyes of so many

[Saladjoe]

Damn TOP, what'd you guys do to suddenly become sort of cowardly AA in the eyes of so many

We've got guys from CRAP and TPF doubting our resolve. The irony is delicious. 

[AntyCrist]

Do people really not understand this? I think it's perfectly clear. I mean, feel free to disagree with him, but there's no need to act like you don't understand it. For those that lack the reading comprehension or language ability to get it: he's suggesting that an alliances of infra-huggers or stat-lovers may call it quits and thereby hasten their sides eventual defeat. For instance, alliances like VE and NSO (NSO is a bit of a different story in that they're on a different front) have seen their ANS plummet and are taking a harder hit (I'm not actually sure how hard NSO is being hit, tbh, but I'm not sharing my opinion, but rather explaining someone else's) than some alliances. It's possible some of these alliances don't want to be the "new GOONS", as he says. I take this to mean a very low ANS alliance. Then he goes through a rather incomplete list of alliances (roughly in order of ANS) that may need to decide if they're willing to "go for broke" and join GOONS at the bottom. Again, this is his prediction, not mine. 

 

He's saying that if any of these large, presumably important/significant alliances say, "Hey, you know what, I don't want to ruin my alliance (destroy all our pixels) for this silly war" and thus drop out, it will lessen the chances of eventual victory (perhaps he would even allow a Soviet over German type victory). 

 

Do people really not understand this? I think it's perfectly clear. I mean, feel free to disagree with him, but there's no need to act like you don't understand it. For those that lack the reading comprehension or language ability to get it: he's suggesting that an alliances of infra-huggers or stat-lovers may call it quits and thereby hasten their sides eventual defeat. For instance, alliances like VE and NSO (NSO is a bit of a different story in that they're on a different front) have seen their ANS plummet and are taking a harder hit (I'm not actually sure how hard NSO is being hit, tbh, but I'm not sharing my opinion, but rather explaining someone else's) than some alliances. It's possible some of these alliances don't want to be the "new GOONS", as he says. I take this to mean a very low ANS alliance. Then he goes through a rather incomplete list of alliances (roughly in order of ANS) that may need to decide if they're willing to "go for broke" and join GOONS at the bottom. Again, this is his prediction, not mine. 

 

He's saying that if any of these large, presumably important/significant alliances say, "Hey, you know what, I don't want to ruin my alliance (destroy all our pixels) for this silly war" and thus drop out, it will lessen the chances of eventual victory (perhaps he would even allow a Soviet over German type victory). 

Almost perfect, 2 corections.

1)  the order is in witch the key alliances come to there (figurative) 'All in bet.'

2) this is so close the first to blink will be desisive

 

The short summery is this is a giant game of chicken.

[Chad]

2) this is so close the first to blink will be decisive

 

The short summery is this is a giant game of chicken.

 

This is basically what I am trying to say. And it isn't a matter of resolve nor am I calling TOP a coward. It wouldn't be cowardly in my eyes to leave after taking a beating like you folks have been taking. It would actually be a relatively smart move to get out before the house of cards collapses. What does TOP have to gain as oppose to what it has to lose? At this point, DH/CnG are only in it to save their pride. Is DH/CnG pride worth 75% of your NS? If I were a TOP member I sure wouldn't. And I think a few of your members are beginning to see it. Same with TSO.

[shahenshah]

So 104  100k+(currently) nuke turrets can easily cover their 80k and up nations as long as we destroy these pesky 19 that remain above 100k (in war mode).....Sweet. This top down thing can work out after all. I'm in it at this point to see how far we can push down the collective ceiling of the other side. Looking at this and the coverage we could do (optimum of course). I don't think 50-60k  is too far out of the question depending on how effective nuke turrets can be. Looks like 2 targets a piece for a week......alongside the 50 or so of our own 80 k guys......Then we'd move to the real mid tier. See what they have around 60-70k layer that we can declare down on and cover with in range nuke turrets. By this time a lot of the larger nuke turrets will be out of range of most unless of course they get brought down in that week of fighting. SHould be an interesting conclusion when we come to it. Still got 19 nations to dispatch it seems..

You cant be a nuke turret if you dont have nukes. Taking one nuke every 3 days is absolutely no problem. Also, all those big nations you pushed down would be waiting, all re-stocked and all. I dont mind if you are willing to shred 600-1000 of your tech in order to land 5-6 nukes spread out over 3 nations per cycle. That's v. much acceptable. 

[Feanor Noldorin]

This is basically what I am trying to say. And it isn't a matter of resolve nor am I calling TOP a coward. It wouldn't be cowardly in my eyes to leave after taking a beating like you folks have been taking. It would actually be a relatively smart move to get out before the house of cards collapses. What does TOP have to gain as oppose to what it has to lose? At this point, DH/CnG are only in it to save their pride. Is DH/CnG pride worth 75% of your NS? If I were a TOP member I sure wouldn't. And I think a few of your members are beginning to see it. Same with TSO.

I think this is the first time I've ever seen someone say we weren't a prideful bunch. Interesting.

[Krashnaia]

The more this war goes on, the more the concept of "nuke turrent" sounds like "maginot line" or "wunderwaffen".

Edited February 18, 2013 by Krashnaia

[Micheal Malone]

Very good analysis! My take on it is that the first coalition to lose an alliance to surrender has a very good chance of losing the war. Once one alliance drops out, we could see a whole bunch on one side leaving. Also, Non Grata will be forced out of peace mode in a few days and it'll be hunt or be hunted between Aftermath and NG.
 
...

 

This part right here is quite cute.

[Namayan]

Alliance, Bloc or Coalition Name
120k+ - Number of Nations in Tier from last update (Number in War Mode) --> Number of Nations in Tier Now (Number in War Mode)
100k - " "
80k - " "

Any new stat updates on this?

[Chad]

Any new stat updates on this?

I'm slowly putting out the graphs for those. Going to take a bit of time though.

 

http://forums.cybernations.net/index.php?/topic/115467-graphing-the-war-because-numbers-suck/?p=3098493

Edited February 18, 2013 by Isotope

[OverlordShinnra]

Another two days have passed and the war wages on...

 

 

Totals for Original Front

 

 

DR and co.

  120k+ - 10 (0) --> 10 (1)

  100k - 17 (7) --> 16 (7)

  80k -  87 (56) --> 84 (53)

 

DH and co.

  120k+ -  24 (19) --> 24 (17)

  100k -  13 (9) --> 10 (6)

  80k -  16 (13) --> 16 (13)

 

 

Commentary

A big shout out to Scifos of the Guru Order for being the only nation in the equilibrium coalition above 120k NS that is in war mode. I say this considering he/she wasn't in war mode two days ago and it takes some cahones to be in the only nation within range of an array of super nations. In other news, while the Competence forces remain strong above 100k, you will notice that in the 100k-120k NS range they took a beating over the last two days. This apparent not only on the original front but  on front 2 as well. I believe that the Competence coalition will have to do a lot more with their 120k+ NS nations if they want to save their 100k nations in order to smash down the next tier down. If everything stayed as is right now as far as peace mode is concerned then some of the huge nations from DBDC and MK are going to be out of this war quite soon. The corollary to this is the 120k+ peace moders from Equilibrium will be as well and they will have given up building above a certain threshold. 

 

 

 

 

Totals for Front 1 

 

 

Aztec and co.

  120k+ -  8 (0) --> 8 (0)

  100k -  11 (3) --> 9 (2)

  80k -  32 (24) --> 31 (18)

 

TOP and co.

  120k+ -  3 (2) --> 3 (2)

  100k -  4 (4) --> 4 (4)

  80k -  9 (4) --> 10 (6)

 

 

Commentary

Again commenting on the extensive use of peace mode. Equilibrium forces have been letting out their peace mode warriors very slowly. And by very slowly I mean not quick enough to replenish their forces at certain thresholds. If that continues to be the case then this front will have the potential to be the first front to get the 100k-120k range cleared out. We've come to expect no war mode nations above 120k NS but we have not seen that at the 100k-120k range. It will be strange because TOP and co. is completely outnumbered. This of course doesn't tell the story of why these nations are in peace mode. There is a lot of speculation as to why and the prevailing theory seems to be that obviously this war has a lot of crossover between fronts and it isn't clear cut and dry. Anyone who looks at war screens  for any allotment of time would agree. Therefore, these nations would be in range of other fronts where the super nations could lay waste to anyone in war mode above a certain NS. I also believe that I might be a little off (and due to the small numbers way off) on the snapshot of this front on the TOP and Co. side. I think TOP like its coalition mates in Umbrella, NG and MK is using AA switching as a tool. In this update I saw a 100k-120k ns nation drop to the 80k range only to be replaced by a nation who switched. I can attempt to find these AA's but only time will tell how this front pans out. 

 

 

 

 

Totals for Front 2 

 

 

SF/XX/Aftermath and co.

  120k+ -  13 (3) --> 12 (0)

  100k - 23 (6) --> 24 (7)

  80k -  102 (56) --> 97 (47)

 

CnG and Co.

  120k+ -  38 (24) --> 39 (26)

  100k+ -  18 (8) --> 15 (5)

  80k -  57 (29) --> 62 (21)

 

 

Commentary

This is and continues to remain the front with the most destruction in the top tiers. This should come as no surprise since this is also where a majority of AA's are fighting. But things are not as rosy as they appear in today's update for CnG and Co. They benefited from a lot of AA's being added as NG AA's which is why we see a 120k+ nation being added and a plethora of 80k+ nations being added. That being said, like in the original front CnG and Co. bled out some 100k-120k NS nations and some 80k-100k nations. While that might not effect the current war effort it certainly diminishes future aspirations of being able to make inroads on the massive 80k-100k tier. The old saying goes you need 200k nations to attack 150k nations, 150k to attack 120k, 120k to attack 100k and forever. ASTERISK* This isn't and has never been a saying. In conclusion the war effort tilted a bit in the Equilibrium favor over the past two days even though they continue to peace out huge swaths of NS leaving others open for attack. 

 

 

 

Totals for the Entire War

 

Equilibrium

  120k+ -  31 (3) --> 30 (1)

  100k -  51 (16) --> 49 (16)

  80k -  220 (135) --> 212 (118)

 

Competence

  120k+ -  65 (45) --> 66 (45)

  100k -  39 (21) --> 29 (15)

  80k -  82 (46) --> 88 (40)

 

 

Special Notes

-United Equestria was moved from the Original Front to Front 1 because most of their wars are with TOP. This constituted 1 - 80k Tier Nation

-Added NG satellite AA's including FOK, Team Rocket, Hydra and SLCB to Front 2. This turned out to be 1-120k+ nation and a lot of 80k Tier nations

-Added The Apparatus to the Front 2

-Deleted FARK from Front 2 - They have been (Drumroll) CLEARED OUT of any nations above 80k

 

 

 

A Postscript from the author

After only two days of this I realize that picking 80k, 100k and 120k as thresholds, while flashy, is completely arbitrary and should be taken as such. In the future I might widen the thresholds and divide them further in order to better capture the war. It seems ridiculous to have just a 120k+ Range when many of those nations can attack the 100k NS Range and many cannot. So in the future it might look a little different. But for the next couple updates expect this to remain the same.

[Secret]

For Front 1:

 

 

TOP has 4 nations off AA. ~380k NS

 

[url=http://www.cybernations.net/nation_drill_display.asp?Nation_ID=153389]Genland[/url] - 163,492.442

[url=http://www.cybernations.net/nation_drill_display.asp?Nation_ID=102065]75235[/url] - 86,428.302

[url=http://www.cybernations.net/nation_drill_display.asp?Nation_ID=89795]United Owns[/url] - 82,272.092

[url=http://www.cybernations.net/nation_drill_display.asp?Nation_ID=201315]Believland[/url] - 57,133.169

 

 

As you can see, there aren't many of them. Let alone enough to cause any meaningful difference. 

 

Edited February 18, 2013 by Secret

[WhitEarendur]

I like your analysis Overlord Shinnra.  Seems pretty balanced and fair.  Looking forward to future updates. 

[OverlordShinnra]

I like your analysis Overlord Shinnra.  Seems pretty balanced and fair.  Looking forward to future updates. 

 

Thank you very much :)

[General Somoza]

I think some alliances that we could see leaving on both sides are as follows:

 

Equilibrium

AZTEC alliances

The Dark Templar

NEW

 

Competence

TSO

TOP

-----------------------------

The difference between the quitters for Equilibrium is that the coalition doesn't really "need" them. If TOP leaves, it would mean dishonoring the Reaver Accords with Umbrella, The Unholy Alliance with MK, and the Concordia Compact with TSO. If TOP leaves, TSO leaves. And the question to "Who wins the war?" is really "Which side is more patient?"

 

Equilibrium needs to hold fast to its guns and slowly scrape away at Competence, while the latter needs to somehow justify the destruction of vast amounts of tech in the defense of Umbrella (or in defense of the Hegemony...or why ever it is everyone is fighting).

Dude, have you ever even talked to someone in AZTEC? Serious question, because I've been around a long time and I've never seen you on our forum or IRC channels. Funny that you point to GLOF, AB, and DT as being people that may leave, yet they're among the very few alliances that have proven they actually know how to conduct a war. If we were to jump out you can rest assured that TSO and TOP wouldn't have to leave- there wouldn't be anyone left to stagger them or do anything to cause them any problems at all.

 

And since we're fighting the two alliances from "the other side" that you think may bail... TOP isn't going anywhere any time soon. They were ready for the fight and have been more than willing to fight during this conflict. I'm guessing you've never talked to any of them either.

 

I do thank you for the comment though. I now know that I never need to pay attention to anything you ever post again.

[Farnsworth]

Yeah, seems fairly fair and balanced, and not in the manner of Fox News. Interesting data. I'm enjoying seeing all the varying sets of data that people provide; it all adds up to a more complete and accurate understanding of what's going on. 

 

Kudos and thanks for putting this together!

[Saladjoe]

Dude, have you ever even talked to someone in AZTEC? Serious question, because I've been around a long time and I've never seen you on our forum or IRC channels. Funny that you point to GLOF, AB, and DT as being people that may leave, yet they're among the very few alliances that have proven they actually know how to conduct a war. If we were to jump out you can rest assured that TSO and TOP wouldn't have to leave- there wouldn't be anyone left to stagger them or do anything to cause them any problems at all.

 

And since we're fighting the two alliances from "the other side" that you think may bail... TOP isn't going anywhere any time soon. They were ready for the fight and have been more than willing to fight during this conflict. I'm guessing you've never talked to any of them either.

 

I do thank you for the comment though. I now know that I never need to pay attention to anything you ever post again.

Well said, coming from the other trench too.