Vhalen Posted February 8, 2013 Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 (edited) BTW, maybe at this moment NPO/DR are taking more casualties (I don't know, from Gopher's statics I'd say AI is taking the bigest hit in the Equilibrium's side), but when (if) the war reaches the point in which the high-tier bar has been lowered under 100k NS, then probably SF/XX will be the ones taking the blunt of the fight. Getting back to the subject of the threat a little: When (if) the war reaches the point where the high-tier bar has been lowered under 100k NS, Umbrella's top end will have essentially been removed from the fight, no? (Yes, I know "aid," but as has been pointed out somewhere I'm too lazy to find to quote, that extra NS is irrelevant for aid purposes.) I haven't studied all this in detail or anything, so feel free to correct me if I'm way off base, but if the "mid-tier" numbers are as they've been represented, it seems like it'd turn into a pretty one-sided beatdown at that point. Edited February 8, 2013 by Vhalen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmmehhh Posted February 8, 2013 Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 (edited) 100k nations will get declared by our 133k nations. Your 75k nations will be declared upon by our 100k nations etcetera. Our nations will be selling of infra, decomming planes, tanks, cm's and be at 20% troops while the defending EQ nation is inflating his NS with max militairy. So there will be some brutal downdeclares. With a proper downdeclare, you will win all spy attacks, most of the navy attacks, you will win most GA, and most AC. Also the top 250 bar keeps getting lower. It's 135k now and I expect it to drop down to 125k at least. The topnations will be ghosting and hitting any EQ nation in range and will shed NS that way which keeps them in range of other targets. Personally I am willing to sell a lot of stuff to get in range of some targets :). Edited February 8, 2013 by Timmehhh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CubaQuerida Posted February 8, 2013 Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 100k nations will get declared by our 133k nations. Your 75k nations will be declared upon by our 100k nations etcetera. Our nations will be selling of infra, decomming planes, tanks, cm's and be at 20% troops while the defending EQ nation is inflating his NS with max militairy. So there will be some brutal downdeclares. With a proper downdeclare, you will win all spy attacks, most of the navy attacks, you will win most GA, and most AC. Also the top 250 bar keeps getting lower. It's 135k now and I expect it to drop down to 125k at least. The topnations will be ghosting and hitting any EQ nation in range and will shed NS that way which keeps them in range of other targets. Personally I am willing to sell a lot of stuff to get in range of some targets :). He's on my side, and yet I still find myself frightened by this... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vasily Blyukher Posted February 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 First off my apologies for the delay and if I've managed to miss any DoWs. Other things have had my attention, so I'm playing catch up here. That said, at least now some time as passed so we can see how things are going. Secondly, I see we've had some crossover on various fronts, namely the C&G and DH fronts kind of bleeding together. I'm still going to track using three fronts as on the not-EQ side each of those fronts has specific implications for treaty chains. Of course these treaty chains have pretty much all fired off at this point, but they remain relevant in terms of any potential peace deals. As an example, not to imply I have any knowledge of this happening, I would imagine if VE left the war, Mortal Wombat would leave with them. So the fronts may matter for specific peace deals. Finally, these stats are not complete in that various alliances have strength off AA for whatever reason. Now onward. The Doomhouse Front Umbrella 100k+ NS Nations: 13 war/1 peace 90k-100k: 3 war/0 peace 80k-90k: 11 war/0 peace 70k-80k: 6 war/0 peace 60k-70k: 6 war/0 peace The first though here, is wow. Last time I tracked Umbrella, on 29 Jan, they had 31 nations in war mode above 100k and 2 in peace. Now they have a total of 14. That means 19 nations dropped out. As you look further into the stats though, on 29 Jan, Umbrella had 49 nations total between 60k and 100k. Today they have a total of 30. As I look around a little I see some nations on Doombird Doomcave with less than 7 days of AA seniority, there is a nation on Genmay with 4 days seniority, etc. In addition, I only see one nation on Umbrella that is over 100k and under 15k tech (15k tech is 75k NS). When you add in some infrastructure, nuclear weapons, and a military, such a nation should still be over 80k easily, even if at ZI. Thus I must admit to being somewhat skeptical that so many Umbrella nations over 100k were blown under 15k tech in such a short period of time, as opposed to the nations simply vacationing elsewhere. Mushroom Kingdom 100k+ NS Nations: 3 war/10 peace 90k-100k: 0 war/1 peace 80k-90k: 1 war/0 peace 70k-80k: 2 war/3 peace 60k-70k: 6 war/0 peace MK has gone from 18 total nations above 100k to 13. They've also pulled a number of those nations into peace mode. This is not that great for EQ. MK has been able to peace mode between 6 and 10 new nations (4 were in peace mode on 29 Jan). That reflects somewhat badly on EQ in that their reserve force was unable to pin these nations in war mode and keep them on pace to be dragged down into the shark tank. GOONS Umar is vacationing over on Doombird Doomcave. The GOONS retain one nation above 60k and he is in peace mode. No tracking here. VE 100k+ NS Nations: 6 war/0 peace 90k-100k: 1 war/0 peace 80k-90k: 2 war/1 peace 70k-80k: 3 war/0 peace 60k-70k: 5 war/0 peace VE has gone from 14 above 100k to 6. This is expected in that VE was never as tech heavy as some of the other Doomhouse parties on this front. Specifically they field a total of 4 nations above 15k tech, while Umbrella still fields at least 13 nations above 15k, despite having been at war longer. Mortal Wombat My person least favorite entry to this war as their entry cost me a tech buyer (my slot was empty for 36 hours until I found a new buyer in WTF, you monsters!), Mortal Wombat fields: 100k+ NS Nations: 1 war/1 peace 90k-100k: 0 war/3 peace 80k-90k: 2 war/0 peace 70k-80k: 1 war/0 peace 60k-70k: 4 war/1 peace Deinos 100k+ NS Nations: 1 war/2 peace 90k-100k: 0 war/2 peace 80k-90k: 1 war/1 peace 70k-80k: 0 war/2 peace 60k-70k: 2 war/2 peace DH Front Total 100k+ NS Nations: 24 war/14 peace 90k-100k: 4 war/7 peace 80k-90k: 17 war/2 peace 70k-80k: 12 war/5 peace 60k-70k: 23 war/4 peace Doomhouse has lost 28 nations above 100k+ since the last update. More precisely they've lost 32 nations from people in combat on 29 Jan and gained 5 nations via the MW and Deinos entries. Anarchy Inc 100k+ NS Nations: 0 war/4 peace 90k-100k: 0 war/0 peace 80k-90k: 2 war/4 peace 70k-80k: 5 war/4 peace 60k-70k: 8 war/6 peace Anarchy Inc fields one nation above 15k tech. They have a total of 13 nations above 10k tech. I've gone from needing to look at three pages of AI nations to run stats on them to not even needing to scroll to the bottom of the first page. This has been absolutely bloody. I'd say the most surprising thing here is that on 29 Jan, AI had 23 nations in the 60k to 70k band. Now they have 14. That should be an area where they can win wars, but instead they're losing people from that band, despite having larger nations dropping down to help up its population. New Pacific Order 100k+ NS Nations: 1 war/3 peace 90k-100k: 1 war/4 peace 80k-90k: 10 war/0 peace 70k-80k: 10 war/4 peace 60k-70k: 14 war/7 peace The NPO has lost nations out of the 100k range, but gained in the lower rangers that I track. This is closer to what I'd expect to see on this front. The NPO has two natins above 10k tech. One at 15k and one at 12k. IRON 100k+ NS Nations: 6 war/1 peace 90k-100k: 3 war/3 peace 80k-90k: 11 war/1 peace 70k-80k: 16 war/2 peace 60k-70k: 23 war/4 peace IRON is holding up well enough. They're better off in the above 100k range than anyone else and seeing a lot of their nations concentrate in the 60k to 70k range. That said, 70k only lets you attack a 93.1k NS nation which isn't going to get the job done in terms of dragging people under 100k. Everyone Else NATO, TIO, LoSS, GO, FAN, TENE, Outlaws, PPO 100k+ NS Nations: 12 war/11 peace 90k-100k: 9 war/8 peace 80k-90k: 14 war/11 peace 70k-80k: 15 war/15 peace 60k-70k: 38 war/7 peace EQ Total 100k+ NS Nations: 19 war/19 peace 90k-100k: 13 war/15 peace 80k-90k: 37 war/16 peace 70k-80k: 46 war/25 peace 60k-70k: 83 war/25 peace EQ has lost 21 nations since the last update compared to Doomhouse losing no more than 32 nations. At the end of the day, we have a tie above 100k Keep in mind this is with the DH not getting credit for its forces that have AA swapped. EQ though continued to hold the advantage in the other tiers, most importantly EQ has 28 nations in the 90k to 100k range versus 11 for Doomhouse. In addition, EQ has brought more forces into this front by pulling in alliances that were previously fighting on the C&G front. Of course the issue is every 100k nation pulled away from that front just makes things that much easier for C&G + Non Grata. The C&G Front C&G: 100k+ NS Nations: 10 war/32 peace 90k-100k: 6 war/7 peace 80k-90k: 10 war/17 peace 70k-80k: 7 war/16 peace 60k-70k: 3 war/20 peace C&G has been able to cycle an impressive number of large nations into peace mode to rebuy nukes and bring out in whatever manner they desire. Non Grata: 100k+ NS Nations: 19 war/3 peace 90k-100k: 2 war/1 peace 80k-90k: 8 war/2 peace 70k-80k: 3 war/2 peace 60k-70k: 1 war/3 peace Non Grata has seen a large drop in nations over 100k+. Of course there is also an entire thread dedicated to listing all the places that NG nations have gone, so determining their exact drop is difficult. Front Total for C&G, NG, and NoR: 100k+ NS Nations: 34 war/37 peace 90k-100k: 11 war/8 peace 80k-90k: 21 war/25 peace 70k-80k: 12 war/24 peace 60k-70k: 5 war/26 peace Front Total for EQ Forces: 100k+ NS Nations: 35 war/19 peace 90k-100k: 37 war/11 peace 80k-90k: 45 war/23 peace 70k-80k: 47 war/21 peace 60k-70k: 73 war/34 peace Your attitude on how this front is playing out likely depends on whether or not you think Non Grata has more strength off AA than the EQ side does. Leaving that argument aside that we see here is that C&G has managed to peace cycle a large number of its large nations, especially those in Int and ODN who have been fighting the longest. That isn't really a good sign for in the upper tier. On the plus side for EQ, they have a lot of nations who have managed to avoid falling below 90k, which means they'll still be able to declare upwards on larger nations. The big take away here is that EQ forces on this front doesn't have much they can loan the Doomhouse front. Pulling NADC and RnR over to the Doomhouse front only supplies any extra 4 nations over 100k and costs EQ nations on a front where they are outnumbered. For the next wave, if you are C&G + friends, you want to grind that 90k to 100k tier to dust and reduce the number of people who can declare up on you. If you're EQ, you want to declare up and drag as many people down with you. TOP Front TOP, TSO, Reaper, and Alchemy 100k+ NS Nations: 7 war/4 peace 90k-100k: 3 war/4 peace 80k-90k: 8 war/2 peace 70k-80k: 4 war/4 peace 60k-70k: 18 war/7 peace EQ Forces 100k+ NS Nations: 18 war/13 peace 90k-100k: 16 war/6 peace 80k-90k: 33 war/9 peace 70k-80k: 30 war/9 peace 60k-70k: 50 war/10 peace When I first summed up the TOP and friends side, I thought I'd be posted how this side was looking good for EQ. It still is with a 31 to 11 advantage above 100k, basically 3:1, for EQ forces. Of course TPF is also now fighting on the DH front, which might mean 6 of those 31 nations over 100k might be pulled off the TOP front. What is impressive is that between 29 Jan and 8 Feb, TOP + Friends lost 19 nations (30 to 11). Doing so cost EQ 34 nations (65 to 31). The story here is that while TOP is getting ground down, it is taking one heck of a millstone to do the grinding and that millstone is requiring frequent replacement. On a side note, if Argent was on the TOP side, the upper tier would be TOP: 12/4, EQ: 13/13. Actually this front would likely favor TOP since they've been expending some effort to grind down Argent, as Argent was one of the main alliances attacking them with high ANS members. Had that effort been spent elsewhere on this front (and Argent been helping), this front would likely heavily favor TOP. The Big Picture Again, your view on a couple of fronts likely depends on what all you think is hiding off AA. That said I see some of the EQ actions as evidence they're not having the greatest time in the upper tier. Namely calling in more forces onto the Doomhouse front when they don't even have a decisive advantage on the C&G front and the TOP front is currently costing them 1.7 nations for each hostile they destroy. For EQ the main issue I see is that DH likely outnumbers EQ on the Doomhouse front, giving their off AA strength. On the C&G front, EQ is outnumbered above 100k. On the TOP front, even if TOP and company surrender today (as opposed to playing turtling nuke turret), TOP has done so much damage that EQ wouldn't free up a decisive number of nations by closing down this front. What EQ really seems to need at this time is the ability to dump more nations onto the Doomhouse front and help with the task of grinding all that tech off Umbrella. The issue is finding those nations. You can borrow some from the TOP front, but if TOP keeps up its damage output it will cost EQ 19 out of its 31 nations on that front just to knock TOP + Friends under 100k. On the C&G front the numbers favor C&G unless those 90k to 100k nations do an amazing job at pulling larger nations down. On the long term level it also seems like DH is benefiting in a number of ways. The strategic issue EQ had with Doomhouse was the tech stockpiles of Umbrella. Yet as it stands EQ has managed to grind down TOP, who while a high ANS alliance was not stocked up on tech to the same degree Umbrella was, and now EQ finds itself needing to grind down Non Grata to free up forces for hitting Umbrella. Non Grata of course holds military treaties with both sides and still is a potential ally for the EQ side postwar. While EQ has managed a lot of destruction in this war, I'm not sure how much of that destruction achieves the primary goal versus is the consolation prize of "Well at least we did damage to TOP" or the booby prize of "We weakened NG and now they aren't quite to well prepared to help us go after Umbrella in a future war" (pending of course NG fighting on the other side next war). For EQ success is going to be defined as finding a way to grind tech off those 48 Umbrella nations currently above 100k (and the 15 MK nations I suppose) versus expending their efforts on other fronts. I think one of the early lessons learned from this war is that EQ needed to keep Non Grata on the sidelines for a longer period of time. I realize a lot of people feel that NG was going to enter on the DH side sooner or later, but that everyday that the NPO and AI managed to keep NG neutral via their ties, was a day that EQ could borrow forces from the C&G front to go hit Umbrella and grind that tech down. The fact that for whatever reason TLR was countered, led to this current state of affairs on the C&G front. In terms of accomplishing the goal of removing Umbrella's tech stockpile, the alliances attacked by TLR would have been better off accepting that TLR was able to punch them in the face for free to allow other alliances to go hit Umbrella. Had NG's entry been delayed until more of Umbrella was in the shark tank, EQ would be better position to accomplish their goals. Of course if NG had entered on EQ's side, that would have been even better for EQ. 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Mr Magorium Posted February 8, 2013 Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 He's on my side, and yet I still find myself frightened by this... Then you get frightened to easy :D If he chooses to do as he say then he will come down and never get up again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vasily Blyukher Posted February 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 (edited) Getting back to the subject of the threat a little: When (if) the war reaches the point where the high-tier bar has been lowered under 100k NS, Umbrella's top end will have essentially been removed from the fight, no? (Yes, I know "aid," but as has been pointed out somewhere I'm too lazy to find to quote, that extra NS is irrelevant for aid purposes.) I haven't studied all this in detail or anything, so feel free to correct me if I'm way off base, but if the "mid-tier" numbers are as they've been represented, it seems like it'd turn into a pretty one-sided beatdown at that point. The Umbrella nation is likely going to have favorable damage modifiers over the midtier nations they face (more tech and the WRC military wonder) than some, if not all, of their targets. That means over one round of war, the Umbrella nations would fire much more powerful nukes (and they can hit 3 people with a nuke for every nuke they take), do more damage on air strikes, etc. Basically the first three midtier nations sent in to attack an Umbrella nation would suffer greatly. The next three would suffer less since the Umbrella nation would have less tech in the second round, etc. The issue is how many rounds it takes to get rid of that tech advantage Umbrella has and how gutted your mid tier is in the process. Plus of course the issue of politically will. There is also the question of political will since whichever nations are tasked with orders to be in the first wave have to be nations who will let months of work be blown away just to do moderate damage to some giant tech stockpile. In on example, you have a large nation with ~10k tech but you've clearly lost a sizable amount of NS due to having infra blown away. So if you're sent in on an Umbrella nation you can be joined by two 'natural' 70k nations. That is nations who started the war at 70k as opposed to bigger nations who were ground down. Take corey faith of your alliance as a potential example of a natural 70k. He only has 2.2k tech. You'll likely do comparable damage to the Umbrella nation (and be the person firing nukes at the Umbrella nation due your tech), but corey is likely going to fair badly in terms of the air force, nuclear, and cruise missile exchange. Even worse if you run short on nukes and corey has to take over nukes, you're hitting the Umbrella nation with a nuke backed by 2k tech and he's handing out nukes with 10k tech worth of damage modifiers. Edited February 8, 2013 by Vasily Blyukher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feanor Noldorin Posted February 8, 2013 Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's not quite BiPolar but we seem to be handling ourselves quite well against such large numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zoomzoomzoom Posted February 8, 2013 Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 I really enjoyed the last bit of analysis Bravo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longshadow Posted February 8, 2013 Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think one of the early lessons learned from this war is that EQ needed to keep Non Grata on the sidelines for a longer period of time. I realize a lot of people feel that NG was going to enter on the DH side sooner or later, but that everyday that the NPO and AI managed to keep NG neutral via their ties, was a day that EQ could borrow forces from the C&G front to go hit Umbrella and grind that tech down. The fact that for whatever reason TLR was countered, led to this current state of affairs on the C&G front. In terms of accomplishing the goal of removing Umbrella's tech stockpile, the alliances attacked by TLR would have been better off accepting that TLR was able to punch them in the face for free to allow other alliances to go hit Umbrella. Had NG's entry been delayed until more of Umbrella was in the shark tank, EQ would be better position to accomplish their goals. Of course if NG had entered on EQ's side, that would have been even better for EQ. QFT. Good analysis and this I think will seal the deal on eQ's ability to continue fighting this war with a chance of success (which is now lost because of this). Good job to NADC, Polar, Legion and others for screwing your coalition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scytale Posted February 8, 2013 Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 One analysis I don't think I saw was what happens in a really prolonged war where the NS levels are split so that each side has an absolute advantage on a tier and we run into a gruelling "luke warm" war (was about to say cold war) in which tech deals can begin while wars are still fought in the middle between the upper mid tier and the lower high tier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indian Bob Posted February 8, 2013 Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 One analysis I don't think I saw was what happens in a really prolonged war where the NS levels are split so that each side has an absolute advantage on a tier and we run into a gruelling "luke warm" war (was about to say cold war) in which tech deals can begin while wars are still fought in the middle between the upper mid tier and the lower high tier. I've seen it suggested that a DMZ be established. If that happens, EQ nations can not only cycle out for collections and nuke resupply they can back collect and infra jump (helping to even out the warchest discrepancy). It all depends on our/their ability to retain the will to prosecute this war. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griff Posted February 8, 2013 Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think one of the early lessons learned from this war is that EQ needed to keep Non Grata on the sidelines for a longer period of time. I realize a lot of people feel that NG was going to enter on the DH side sooner or later, but that everyday that the NPO and AI managed to keep NG neutral via their ties, was a day that EQ could borrow forces from the C&G front to go hit Umbrella and grind that tech down. The fact that for whatever reason TLR was countered, led to this current state of affairs on the C&G front. In terms of accomplishing the goal of removing Umbrella's tech stockpile, the alliances attacked by TLR would have been better off accepting that TLR was able to punch them in the face for free to allow other alliances to go hit Umbrella. Had NG's entry been delayed until more of Umbrella was in the shark tank, EQ would be better position to accomplish their goals. Of course if NG had entered on EQ's side, that would have been even better for EQ. This should be required reading for Polar and Legion. You only made it harder on yourselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vasily Blyukher Posted February 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2013 (edited) I've seen it suggested that a DMZ be established. If that happens, EQ nations can not only cycle out for collections and nuke resupply they can back collect and infra jump (helping to even out the warchest discrepancy). It all depends on our/their ability to retain the will to prosecute this war. The only issue I see with that, is it also seems likely that any DH forces who remain about 120k or so will ne enjoying an easy go of it. They can purchase tech as Scytale mentions and continue to expand the tech gap. At the same time those pulled down will be nuke turrets that gut EQ's mid tier and make it harder for EQ nations to grow. At that point EQ would have to make decisions regarding their own long term growth options. Edited February 9, 2013 by Vasily Blyukher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noob Cake Posted February 9, 2013 Report Share Posted February 9, 2013 What did I just read? Tech rules all you say? Did I hear that correctly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indian Bob Posted February 9, 2013 Report Share Posted February 9, 2013 The only issue I see with that, is it also seems likely that any DH forces who remain about 120k or so will ne enjoying an easy go of it. They can purchase tech as Scytale mentions and continue to expand the tech gap. At the same time those pulled down will be nuke turrets that gut EQ's mid tier and make it harder for EQ nations to grow. At that point EQ would have to make decisions regarding their own long term growth options. They can certainly purchase tech, but if every seller they have gets hit they'll find they're buying from the game more and more often. Not to mention the fact that nuke turrets are only damaging 3-6 nations at a time. Unless some of these monster nations start selling off tech, there'll only be a couple at a time that are pulled down. A large alliance like NPO, IRON or Ai could rotate enough people through to keep a fresh set of staggers on every 3 weeks if it was only 1 or 2 pulled down at a time. Imagine there's 100 "monster nations" that are buffered from the rest of EQ by the neutrals. All EQ has to do is build 3 people up to just the top 250, not very high at all and those 3 pick off one target. They essentially ignore all of the counters and concentrate on bringing one nation down with them. Those 3 nations will be out of commission for awhile, but once that one guy is brought down to reachable level it would only take 12 mid tier nations to constantly grind him down with a full back collect in between for each nation. That guy will be down to buying back and firing 2 nukes a day (maybe hitting with both, but most likely not) and while it'll be painful there won't be any reason that couldn't be kept up for months at a time with 2-3 of their nations. Again, it's not whether it can be done, it's whether there's the will to do so. Over the course of two months, just spy ops and defeat alerts can wear away $1.5billion, which is not even counting the cost of bills and continuously buying back to get nukes. How many people are going to want to live through that grind on the losing end? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devilyn Caster Posted February 9, 2013 Report Share Posted February 9, 2013 Wow this is a really good thread. Well done mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vhalen Posted February 9, 2013 Report Share Posted February 9, 2013 (edited) 100k nations will get declared by our 133k nations. Your 75k nations will be declared upon by our 100k nations etcetera. Our nations will be selling of infra, decomming planes, tanks, cm's and be at 20% troops while the defending EQ nation is inflating his NS with max militairy. So there will be some brutal downdeclares. With a proper downdeclare, you will win all spy attacks, most of the navy attacks, you will win most GA, and most AC. Also the top 250 bar keeps getting lower. It's 135k now and I expect it to drop down to 125k at least. The topnations will be ghosting and hitting any EQ nation in range and will shed NS that way which keeps them in range of other targets. Personally I am willing to sell a lot of stuff to get in range of some targets :). You make it sound like you'll be declaring on 60k nations next week. ;) Look, I'm not arguing that it's impossible for high end nations to downdeclare, just that it's going to be harder to find targets where they won't end up wasting a lot of resources and climbing down into the grinder. (I grant you, I'm not sure how heavy the middle-high imbalance is, but it seemed to be about 4-5 to 1.) In your particular case, I suspect the top 250 bar will find itself clogged by neutrals and noncombatants pretty soon. Barring an unprovoked war on GPA/etc, you'll have to sell off more than tanks and planes. If you dump navy to declare, you basically concede the seas to your opposition, and battle support does a lot to counter the other guys' tech disadvantage. If you dump a bunch of infra, don't expect to win too many GAs. I guess you could buy it back after you declare, but frankly, the amount of WC you'd tear through for a significant sell/buyback, one could argue that the other side won that fight before it began. IMO, you're also painting a rather rosy picture of downdeclares. The "top end" nations ideally want to pick and choose their opponents, rather than dipping down and getting caught in a constant numbers grind. And keep in mind that infra comes back a lot easier/faster than tech. A prolonged "siege" of the top end threatens to end how all sieges do. The guys in the castle starve. The Umbrella nation is likely going to have favorable damage modifiers over the midtier nations they face (more tech and the WRC military wonder) than some, if not all, of their targets. That means over one round of war, the Umbrella nations would fire much more powerful nukes (and they can hit 3 people with a nuke for every nuke they take), do more damage on air strikes, etc. Basically the first three midtier nations sent in to attack an Umbrella nation would suffer greatly. The next three would suffer less since the Umbrella nation would have less tech in the second round, etc. The issue is how many rounds it takes to get rid of that tech advantage Umbrella has and how gutted your mid tier is in the process. Plus of course the issue of politically will. There is also the question of political will since whichever nations are tasked with orders to be in the first wave have to be nations who will let months of work be blown away just to do moderate damage to some giant tech stockpile. In on example, you have a large nation with ~10k tech but you've clearly lost a sizable amount of NS due to having infra blown away. So if you're sent in on an Umbrella nation you can be joined by two 'natural' 70k nations. That is nations who started the war at 70k as opposed to bigger nations who were ground down. Take corey faith of your alliance as a potential example of a natural 70k. He only has 2.2k tech. You'll likely do comparable damage to the Umbrella nation (and be the person firing nukes at the Umbrella nation due your tech), but corey is likely going to fair badly in terms of the air force, nuclear, and cruise missile exchange. Even worse if you run short on nukes and corey has to take over nukes, you're hitting the Umbrella nation with a nuke backed by 2k tech and he's handing out nukes with 10k tech worth of damage modifiers. "Over one round of war" is the key phrase here. That's the short term, and obviously what DH would prefer. Given how CN wars tend to go, however, it's rather foolish to draw conclusions based on the short term. Over three or four rounds of war, constantly outnumbered, the Umbrella nation will be lucky to manage to nuke one opponent a day on average (I think it's 0.8 hits if you buy two and fire both?), whereas he's guaranteed to eat one daily, and his attackers would stand to climb in total nuke count by war round's end. The Umbrella guy either has to distribute damage and affect his targets much less overall than he hoped, or concentrate it and affect most of them not at all. And unless he burns billions rebuying infra to retain a size advantage, he doesn't stand to win many ground battles after the first couple of days. Even then, any coordination at all will have him taking regular GA hits, and the later-round attackers would be able to pick and choose who fights. Basic numbers game. Edit: Indian Bob summed up a lot of what I'd written, but I didn't feel like rewriting it, so there ya go. ;) Also, I don't mean to make it sound like a "sunshine and rainbows" proposition for either side. It's a matter of who's more willing to get thrashed, I think. IMO, it's in Umbrella's best interests to conclude hostilities as quickly as possible, retaining the massive up-front damage they put in, while avoiding the grind. Edit2: Furthermore, at least this war's providing an interesting and different situation from most past ones, huh? I think we can all agree on that. Edited February 9, 2013 by Vhalen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoADarthCyfe6 Posted February 9, 2013 Report Share Posted February 9, 2013 (edited) Man, this is literally the best thread I have ever read over my CN career. The one thing I have been looking forward too for at least two years now was the great war to be launched against the DH giant. Being able to break down the stats of the biggest front of the war right now is really giving me a lot of enjoyment. Truly spectacular and well done, sir. Edited February 9, 2013 by SoADarthCyfe6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Namayan Posted February 9, 2013 Report Share Posted February 9, 2013 I think one of the early lessons learned from this war is that EQ needed to keep Non Grata on the sidelines for a longer period of time. I realize a lot of people feel that NG was going to enter on the DH side sooner or later, but that everyday that the NPO and AI managed to keep NG neutral via their ties, was a day that EQ could borrow forces from the C&G front to go hit Umbrella and grind that tech down. The fact that for whatever reason TLR was countered, led to this current state of affairs on the C&G front. In terms of accomplishing the goal of removing Umbrella's tech stockpile, the alliances attacked by TLR would have been better off accepting that TLR was able to punch them in the face for free to allow other alliances to go hit Umbrella. Had NG's entry been delayed until more of Umbrella was in the shark tank, EQ would be better position to accomplish their goals. Of course if NG had entered on EQ's side, that would have been even better for EQ. I think this sums it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiggah Posted February 9, 2013 Report Share Posted February 9, 2013 They can certainly purchase tech, but if every seller they have gets hit they'll find they're buying from the game more and more often. Not to mention the fact that nuke turrets are only damaging 3-6 nations at a time. Unless some of these monster nations start selling off tech, there'll only be a couple at a time that are pulled down. A large alliance like NPO, IRON or Ai could rotate enough people through to keep a fresh set of staggers on every 3 weeks if it was only 1 or 2 pulled down at a time. Imagine there's 100 "monster nations" that are buffered from the rest of EQ by the neutrals. All EQ has to do is build 3 people up to just the top 250, not very high at all and those 3 pick off one target. They essentially ignore all of the counters and concentrate on bringing one nation down with them. Those 3 nations will be out of commission for awhile, but once that one guy is brought down to reachable level it would only take 12 mid tier nations to constantly grind him down with a full back collect in between for each nation. That guy will be down to buying back and firing 2 nukes a day (maybe hitting with both, but most likely not) and while it'll be painful there won't be any reason that couldn't be kept up for months at a time with 2-3 of their nations. Again, it's not whether it can be done, it's whether there's the will to do so. Over the course of two months, just spy ops and defeat alerts can wear away $1.5billion, which is not even counting the cost of bills and continuously buying back to get nukes. How many people are going to want to live through that grind on the losing end? You assume EQ is winning on the ground floor. We have plenty of former mid-tier nations capable of switching to tech-giving mode and willing to take payment in the rebuild process afterward. I haven't required a single aid slot for receiving and continue to send up tech and its getting easier with time, not harder. Even if that wasn't the case, it's not that hard to coordinate tech deals under fire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HHAYD Posted February 9, 2013 Report Share Posted February 9, 2013 (edited) 100k nations will get declared by our 133k nations. Your 75k nations will be declared upon by our 100k nations etcetera. Our nations will be selling of infra, decomming planes, tanks, cm's and be at 20% troops while the defending EQ nation is inflating his NS with max militairy. So there will be some brutal downdeclares. With a proper downdeclare, you will win all spy attacks, most of the navy attacks, you will win most GA, and most AC. Also the top 250 bar keeps getting lower. It's 135k now and I expect it to drop down to 125k at least. The topnations will be ghosting and hitting any EQ nation in range and will shed NS that way which keeps them in range of other targets. Personally I am willing to sell a lot of stuff to get in range of some targets :). Your 1K nations will be triple piled. Your 10K nations will be triple ganged. Your 20K nations will also be triple piled. Your 30K nations will also be triple ganged. It all comes down to who's willing to keep fighting longer and eat the losses. If the Equalibrium side had endless morale, it could deprive DH and its allies of any new recruits and slowly dunk some of the upper members into the piranna tank one by one. If the Doomhouse side had endless morale, EQ would lose much of its upper tier fighters that are in war mode. Edited February 9, 2013 by HHAYD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longshadow Posted February 9, 2013 Report Share Posted February 9, 2013 All I hear right now from the eQ side of things specifically the SF groups mostly is what we keep hearing from Kaskus >.< that just makes me want to bang my head on my keyboard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banned Posted February 9, 2013 Report Share Posted February 9, 2013 Wow, all 12 pages read through, and very, very interesting stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshuaR Posted February 9, 2013 Report Share Posted February 9, 2013 3) One can't pretend to have been following a consistent doctrine of teaming with bloc A to stomp bloc B, then teaming with bloc B to stomp bloc A, then repeat... and now pretend to convince bloc A and/or bloc B that they should keep teaming with you against each other instead of joining forces to take on your bloc. I can understand why Brehon dislikes Umbrella and wants revenge for Roquentin wanting his own personal revenge (which caused the NPO/DH war), but I do find it funny that he (and it seems his entire coalition) hates Umbrella most of all specifically, over anyone else, and holds the above quoted views. Roq and Co. organized an unnecessary beat down of an already defeated Pacifica, and that does indeed fit the quote. But beyond that, the following wars were in very large part propagated by DR/NPO allies (Non Grata) wanting to beat down SF/XX, and in TOP seeking justifiable revenge for their own defeat in BiPolar by hitting Polar. The real truth is political scheming, that Brehon recognizes the only way to get his NPO/DH revenge against Umbrella is to convince others (since Pacifica can't touch Umbrella with zero upper tier) that Umbrella is the evil central superpower, and so he is biding his time against his other enemies in an effort to split the enemy coalition into pieces with this propaganda (which has been partly successful), and because he has some irrational fear and hatred of Umbrella's current elected president. I must give props, however, because as evidenced by the above quoted post, this line of thinking, and specifically focusing on DH or Umbrella as the central player in the previous beat downs, has done a swell job of convincing third parties of this agenda. (Of course we are still culpable for any such attacks, as we all participated, even if his allies may have led the charge, not to pretend everyone is an innocent. Of course, specifically among Umbrellans, none of these wars were interesting because we had nothing to do. Only now do we get to enjoy the game and destroy more than we could ever have hoped to destroy by our own means). Anyway, great thread, keep up the good work. Still very interesting, though when incorporating DOOMBIRD DOOMCAVE and such, it is clear that the upper tier is won, but it is a matter of how long until the other side is tired of their strength being erased versus our side becoming tired of the lower tier tired of the grinder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yevgeni Luchenkov Posted February 9, 2013 Report Share Posted February 9, 2013 (edited) Small correction for the TOP front. Above 100k NS, we're 8 war, 4 peace, not 7/4. To better understand our front, you also have to take into account some of the side wars and the presence of Methax and friends. As far as our enemies go, above 100k NS: Sengoku: 0/2 DT: 5/2 TORN: 0/1 Argent: 5/0 (Biggest is 105k NS) SNAFU: 0/1 ML: 0/0 CA: 0/0 UE: 0/0 AB: 1/3 GLOF: 1/2 TPF: 4/3 (Biggest out of PM is 107k NS) Neb-X: 0/0 Total: 30 nations: 16 in war, 14 in peace. Unless I'm missing someone. At war, it gives us a 2:1 scenario. But if you factor in the people we have out of the AA (TOP has five) and some of our allies in Doombird Doomcave who have helped us from time to time, the reality on the ground is that we are very close to parity in the 100k+ NS, at least outside PM. And since we hold a definitive upper hand in warchests (save for maybe DT who are well prepared for a prolonged fight, /tiphat), it is easy to see what will happen in the next month or so. Edited February 9, 2013 by Yevgeni Luchenkov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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