What will the next war look like?

[Bob Janova]

The GPA take defence a bit more seriously after they got stomped into the ground for very little by the old hegemony, so I think they'd make things painful if the new one tried to stomp them too. And there's really nothing to be gained from doing so; any material reps they could extort wouldn't pay for the damage done (to be honest I'm not even sure if the 70k tech last time did), and the PR damage would be enormous. And I wouldn't bet on them getting no backup either. I believe TDO have friends too.

[quote]Some of the largest alliances that supported them in the last wars (MHA, Sparta) are just big balls of cyberlard that will dislodge themselves if the opportunity comes.[/quote]
Judging by the comments of several MKers in the thread about the dissolution of Harmlins, I'd say that MHA are already out of the club.

[Mussolandia]

The thing is I don't thing they can afford to push too many alliances off, considering the core of their group is not particularly strong. They need a number of large alliances to bandwagon on their side more than NPO did at its height. I just don't think they have a strong a grip on this world as most people assume.

[Charles Stuart]

[quote]1. Pacifican revenge. NPO gets its old gang back together and starts gunning for its enemies.
Short term outlook: Not likely. Numbers are not yet on Pacifica's side.
Long term outlook: Very likely. Once C&G/SF splits - or if a resurgent Pacifica makes itself useful in a war resulting from such a split - they have a strong chance at having a large enough bloc to re-establish themselves in an eminent position of world power. NPO would have to be careful to avoid being drawn out by a fake split designed to put it out in the open for another beat-down.[/quote]

How did we become number one? We must be the pacifican bogey men or something.

[savethecheerleader]

[quote name='Mussolandia' timestamp='1280899195' post='2400445']
The thing is I don't thing they can afford to push too many alliances off, considering the core of their group is not particularly strong. They need a number of large alliances to bandwagon on their side more than NPO did at its height. I just don't think they have a strong a grip on this world as most people assume.
[/quote]
But the fact that many do assume that they're solid dominating forces means that they'll likely be able to retain big dumb chunks of NS like Sparta with more success than their actual strength might suggest.

[Olaf Styke]

I'd say you're pretty spot on.

[Kalasin]

The notion that ex-Hegemony don't exist makes me laugh. Sure they exist, they are just fractured. There's Duckroll, Iron Curtain, NPO (which has apparently failed to get a treaty with IRON or TOP), purple... they're all enemies as far as I'm concerned. And if a war were to occur, they would probably roll together.

[flak attack]

There will be lots of nukes. Of that we can be certain.

Edited August 4, 2010 by flak attack

[ojiras ajeridas]

[quote name='Kalasin' timestamp='1280928755' post='2400668']
The notion that ex-Hegemony don't exist makes me laugh. Sure they exist, they are just fractured. There's Duckroll, Iron Curtain, NPO (which has apparently failed to get a treaty with IRON or TOP), purple... they're all enemies as far as I'm concerned. And if a war were to occur, they would probably roll together.
[/quote]
Yeah, there's also SF you could be afraid of...

Of course the alliances exist, but the fact that they are fractured makes ex-Hegemony unexisting. There is a difference between some loose alliance and a group. ex-Hegemony does exist as long as you guys believe in it.

[Maelstrom Vortex]

Personally, I'm enjoying my vacation from warfare.. after reparations, it's nice to be able to build a little. Thus, I don't seen #1 happening any time soon. The NPO has no motive really. We can get to #1 just by flexing our domestic muscle. We don't need a war to achieve it.

[uaciaut]

[quote name='Mussolandia' timestamp='1280810875' post='2399150']
It is my humble opinion that it will suffice for the New Polar Order (and assorted allies) to break away from its dysfunctional relationship with the people known as Supercomplaints for scenario 1 to become possible. I just don't think they're that strong. At least not in the position the Initiative was after GWIII or that Continuum was after the noCB war. Some of the largest alliances that supported them in the last wars (MHA, Sparta) are just big balls of cyberlard that will dislodge themselves if the opportunity comes.
[/quote]

Pretty much this, though i doubt to see any movement in that regard for quite a while.

Whoever says 1 isn't ever possible is delusional to say the least. I've seen a !@#$load of unlikely events taking place in my CN history, and i'm not even that old of a player. Sure, short-term it's extremely unlikely for it to happen, but on a long term scenario if treaty/influence maps change it's really not unlikely. Old grudges have always been and will always be the main fuel supply for keeping the political world dynamic in peace time. New conflicts are hardly ever built without precedents backing them up.

Edited August 4, 2010 by uaciaut

[Yevgeni Luchenkov]

[quote name='uaciaut' timestamp='1280943669' post='2400829']
Pretty much this, though i doubt to see any movement in that regard for quite a while.

Whoever says 1 isn't ever possible is delusional to say the least. I've seen a !@#$load of unlikely events taking place in my CN history, and i'm not even that old of a player. Sure, short-term it's extremely unlikely for it to happen, but on a long term scenario if treaty/influence maps change it's really not unlikely. Old grudges have always been and will always be the main fuel supply for keeping the political world dynamic in peace time. New conflicts are hardly ever built without precedents backing them up.
[/quote]
Pretty much anything can happen [i]if treaty/influence maps change[/i]. If we're looking at present-day politics or at a future where treaties are still the same, however, number 1 makes absolutely no sense.

[quote]The notion that ex-Hegemony don't exist makes me laugh. Sure they exist, they are just fractured. There's Duckroll, Iron Curtain, NPO (which has apparently failed to get a treaty with IRON or TOP), purple... they're all enemies as far as I'm concerned. And if a war were to occur, they would probably roll together.[/quote]
You're an enemy of Purple? UPN sure will appreciate.

Sure, these micro-blocs do exist. Sure, they do have some relations together. If you insist on saying we're an ex-Hegem bloc and will act cohesively because of it, then you need to throw in some other alliances as well. R&R is as close to the NPO as TOP is, for example. Actually, we're closer to a C&G alliance than we are to the NPO, on treaty lines alone, etc.

But what people are pointing at is that, even if those ex-Hegem alliances were to act as a single entity, they would get crushed easily by the SC bloc (if you count these ex-Hegem alliances as a cohesive unit, then surely SC is one too given the past two major wars). It would be closer to a 7 or 8 vs 1.

At this point, either you leave the "they're all my god damn enemies" mentality and try to redefine a bit your relations with some of them or you brace yourself for a year of complete boredom.

[Some-Guy]

[quote name='Chief Savage Man' timestamp='1279299567' post='2374635']
Also I don't see TOP in any of these situations. They're not going to sit around after they finish terms you know.
[/quote]

TOP's just waiting for someone to show an interest in us. It surprises me that no one tried to bring us on side yet.

[quote name='Kalasin' timestamp='1280928755' post='2400668']
NPO (which has apparently failed to get a treaty with IRON or TOP).
[/quote]

[Mixoux]

[quote name='Ojiras Ajeridas' timestamp='1280932090' post='2400704']
Of course the alliances exist, but the fact that they are fractured makes ex-Hegemony unexisting. There is a difference between some loose alliance and a group. ex-Hegemony does exist as long as you guys believe in it.
[/quote]

The thing is, if you were to attack alliance x who is commonly labeled 'ex hegemony', which alliances would eventually chain in through treaties? Probably much of the same ones that you saw last war, TPF war; hell, even Karma.

Few people still believe that there's a cohesive group that works and speaks to each other, like what you're probably thinking.

Edited August 5, 2010 by Mixoux

[KagetheSecond]

[quote name='Mixoux' timestamp='1281046627' post='2402056']
The thing is, if you were to attack alliance x who is commonly labeled 'ex hegemony', which alliances would eventually chain in through treaties? Probably much of the same ones that you saw last war, TPF war; hell, even Karma.

Few people still believe that there's a cohesive group that works and speaks to each other, like what you're probably thinking.
[/quote]
Sad, but true. The next war would probably be an even bigger beatdown considering how much animosity there is between ex-Heg alliances.

[Feanor Noldorin]

[quote name='Some-Guy' timestamp='1281041285' post='2401977']
TOP's just waiting for someone to show an interest in us. It surprises me that no one tried to bring us on side yet.
[/quote]
Our services can be hired. For the right price in tech.

[Il Impero Romano]

[quote name='Antoine Roquentin' timestamp='1280865568' post='2399830']
I don't think they would, but I think non-neutrals might intervene.
[/quote]

Depends on the neutral that got hit. A few, certainly. Almost positively.

Edited August 6, 2010 by Il Impero Romano

[Kalasin]

[quote name='Ojiras Ajeridas' timestamp='1280932090' post='2400704']
Yeah, there's also SF you could be afraid of...
[/quote]

We like SF a hell of a lot more than we like you.

[quote name='Yevgeni Luchenkov' timestamp='1281028959' post='2401778']
You're an enemy of Purple? UPN sure will appreciate.
[/quote]

I'm actually taking nukes for UPN at the moment. I meant the majority of purple, as well you know.

[Haflinger]

[quote name='Kalasin' timestamp='1281092143' post='2402598']
I'm actually taking nukes for UPN at the moment. I meant the majority of purple, as well you know.
[/quote]
Purple team has 1,628 nations and 32,745,429 nation strength. UPN has 250 nations (of which 205 are purple) and 5,313,909 nation strength. They're the second largest alliance on Purple.

What you just said is akin to saying "I hate Aqua. Oh except Fark, they're awesome."

Although actually UPN is a bigger part of Purple than Fark is of Aqua.

[The Syndic]

[quote name='Feanor Noldorin' timestamp='1281077985' post='2402519']
Our services can be hired. For the right price in tech.
[/quote]

So like GOONS, but far more dangerous?

Edited August 6, 2010 by The Syndic

[Mussolandia]

[quote name='savethecheerleader' timestamp='1280900521' post='2400471']
But the fact that many do assume that they're solid dominating forces means that they'll likely be able to retain big dumb chunks of NS like Sparta with more success than their actual strength might suggest.
[/quote]

Perceptions change, it only takes time. They're already pissing off people with a few blunders here and there and they'll have a hard time restraining the more intemperate elements of their coalition. I have to say they're doing a good job for the most part, but they've reached their peak and can only go downhill from here. I just don't see how large alliances like NpO can be content in living in a world where they do not achieve their material and ideological objectives. Tech raiding will become an issue again and it's bound to alter the composition of the "sides".

[Mirreille]

[quote name='Some-Guy' timestamp='1281041285' post='2401977']
TOP's just waiting for someone to show an interest in us. It surprises me that no one tried to bring us on side yet.[/quote]

Considering the last war, I'm surprised you haven't preempted everyone and picked one yourself already.

[SonOfHoward]

Here are my thoughts on points 3 and 5 which would provide war in the short term.

3. Generally people don't care enough about tech raiders to do anything. The unfortunate thing is that for the most part the people who do care are nothing more than invertebrates crying on the big boards. Point 3 COULD be the start of a war in the short term if some people grew a pair.

5. A larger alliance acting through a protectorate is a possibility. Once the facade is revealed then expect all hell breaks loose. I think that would be the best scenario because we could see some crazy poop like what happened in the 2nd Unjust War/TOP-CnG.

Edited August 6, 2010 by SonOfHoward

[Aurion]

[quote name='Haflinger' timestamp='1281095908' post='2402621']
Purple team has 1,628 nations and 32,745,429 nation strength. UPN has 250 nations (of which 205 are purple) and 5,313,909 nation strength. They're the second largest alliance on Purple.[/quote]

And yet, they aren't the majority of Purple...
[quote]
What you just said is akin to saying "I hate Aqua. Oh except Fark, they're awesome."[/quote]

I think people saying things like that is a good deal more common than you're making it sound.

On-topic: I'd say 3 is most likely, even if the sequel is never as good as the original. Just because it's the hot button recently with all the posing about raiding.

[Xiphosis]

[quote name='Mirreille' timestamp='1281123965' post='2402969']
[quote name='Some-Guy' timestamp='1281041285' post='2401977']
TOP's just waiting for someone to show an interest in us. It surprises me that no one tried to bring us on side yet.
[/quote]
Considering the last war, I'm surprised you haven't preempted everyone and picked one yourself already.
[/quote]

Oh SNAP, haha. Sick burn.

Edited August 6, 2010 by Xiphosis

[Delta1212]

[quote name='Feanor Noldorin' timestamp='1281077985' post='2402519']
Our services can be hired. For the right price in tech.
[/quote]
I'll start the bidding at three tech.