Which alliances are the most likely to start the next big war?

[Axolotlia]

[quote name='Emperor Whimsical' date='10 July 2010 - 09:41 PM' timestamp='1278816082' post='2366490']
Who are the smaller players? Is GOD a big player? Are we first string? Are we second? We've been working on our free throws...
[/quote]

Too bad we're playing tennis

anyway... My ideal war would be over a legit reason, started by a really small alliance, and have the SF and CnG alliances split up.

A guy can dream right?


What i think will actually happen is people will be itching for a reason for a war and blow a raid by GOONS or Facepunch out of proportion and start another big thing...

[Zoomzoomzoom]

Poison Clan, GOONS, \m/, or iFok.

Those are my guesses.

[supercoolyellow]

[quote name='Xiphosis' date='10 July 2010 - 09:23 PM' timestamp='1278815002' post='2366477']
[img]http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y9/MAR-Peeves/vitter.jpg[/img]

Good to know.
[/quote]


[quote name='Emperor Whimsical' date='10 July 2010 - 09:41 PM' timestamp='1278816082' post='2366490']
Who are the smaller players? Is GOD a big player? Are we first string? Are we second? We've been working on our free throws...
[/quote]


[quote name='Xiphosis' date='10 July 2010 - 09:57 PM' timestamp='1278817037' post='2366502']
^ Yup. Lol warpstorm.
[/quote]

In all honesty I didn't have God in mind, and don't think of you as a smaller player, tbh I don't know enough about all of you to know either way though. However judging by your reaction, that kinda suprises me, [i]you[/i] must have a bit of an inferiority complex judging by [i]your [/i]reaction.

[Lord Brendan]

I think he was just confused by your use of vague terms. How are you defining large and small players? Is it by alliance strength purely, or political influence as well? Is The Legion a major player? What about Nueva Vida?

[KainIIIC]

[quote name='Xiphosis' date='10 July 2010 - 09:23 PM' timestamp='1278815002' post='2366477']
[img]http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y9/MAR-Peeves/vitter.jpg[/img]

Good to know.
[/quote]

lol @ the David Vitter. Needs moar diapers.


As for the next war? 1 of 3 scenarios: 1) Going into a chaining war on a relatively minor conflict among medium-sized alliances, morphing into a great war - could be the most unpredictable. 2) A techraid / aggression by the usual group (we're talking the PC/\m//GOONS/iFOK crowd) against someone willing to go to war for it. Also unpredictable. 3) A relatively planned out war with drawn up CBs and Sides, like what was tried for TPF.

[supercoolyellow]

[quote name='Lord Brendan' date='10 July 2010 - 11:42 PM' timestamp='1278823325' post='2366601']
I think he was just confused by your use of vague terms. How are you defining large and small players? Is it by alliance strength purely, or political influence as well? Is The Legion a major player? What about Nueva Vida?
[/quote]

Didn't you know, being vague is the best way to put yourself in "I told you so" situations. I guess I was trying to be more academic, and certainty there cannot be one way to measure a small or large player, NS, activity, reputation, treaties, would all have to be judged.

However, in this case, what we may actually need to look at is their view of CN. A bigger player will look at the big picture, and look to hold SC together. The smaller players have smaller goals, care less about the large scale politics and has more individual goals. Hence you have TIO wanting to roll OO even though it could potentially (Although I doubt this line of though) split SF and CnG.

[Emperor Whimsical]

[quote name='supercoolyellow' date='10 July 2010 - 10:02 PM' timestamp='1278824559' post='2366619']
I guess I was trying to be more academic, and certainty there cannot be one way to measure a small or large player, NS, activity, reputation, treaties, would all have to be judged.

However, in this case, what we may actually need to look at is their view of CN. A bigger player will look at the big picture, and look to hold SC together. The smaller players have smaller goals, care less about the large scale politics and has more individual goals. Hence you have TIO wanting to roll OO even though it could potentially (Although I doubt this line of though) split SF and CnG.
[/quote]

So there IS no way to define a smaller vs. larger players...except goals....which are mostly unknown. Thats what my (sarcastic)response was about. GOD is technically smaller.We've got like 91 nations. Legion has lots more nations than we do. Who is the bigger player here?

[Max Cristof]

[quote name='Haflinger' date='11 July 2010 - 12:06 AM' timestamp='1278821171' post='2366566']
Most likely, it isn't going to start anytime soon, as SuperComplaints appear to be disavowing curbstomps and nobody's dumb enough to attack them out of the blue.
[/quote]

What about last war?

On the other hand I'd say what some others are saying in this thread that it will probably some smaller alliance that doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things

[Omniscient1]

For a while I thought that if anything happened to split up CnG and SF it would come from Polar's sphere. Polar's allies had alot of connects to CnG and less connects to SF. However, the chance for that happening already went and gone last war so I don't know anymore. I'll be glad when people stop using some of the craziest CBs ever to try and roll someone every single night though. The smaller alliances are always wanting to go at it. The big boys in SG seem to have a paranoia that if they split Super-Grievances, NPO will magically rise up and destroy them all. I honestly don't buy that though. Just my thoughts.

[bigwoody]

It will probably be someone that no one sees coming now, but if I had to lay odds NPO would be the favorite. Still maybe 3 to 1 against, but more likely than any other alliance. MHA are followers, NpO expended most of their political capital already with the last war, Sparta are followers, VE will just get really annoyed and whiny and not do anything if they get angry at some alliance, Fark might start something maybe possibly but they don't have a history of it, Legion has no backing to do anything, Mushroom Kingdom would much rather pull a Dennis Rodman than start a war directly, ODN are followers, TOP is under terms and will almost certainly take a defensive posture in the future with as many alliances as they still have gunning for them, GATO is defensive, FOK are followers...from there its a crapshoot anyways.

If you had to pick one alliance, NPO. Still probably won't be them.

It is also sad to realize that most of the top alliances got where they are by being followers. Ugh.

[Max Cristof]

[quote name='Omniscient1' date='11 July 2010 - 01:49 AM' timestamp='1278827323' post='2366680']
For a while I thought that if anything happened to split up CnG and SF it would come from Polar's sphere. Polar's allies had alot of connects to CnG and less connects to SF. However, the chance for that happening already went and gone last war so I don't know anymore. I'll be glad when people stop using some of the craziest CBs ever to try and roll someone every single night though. The smaller alliances are always wanting to go at it. The big boys in SG seem to have a paranoia that if they split Super-Grievances, NPO will magically rise up and destroy them all. I honestly don't buy that though. Just my thoughts.
[/quote]

If that does happen it leaves a lot of alliances in a really tight spot. Like Sparta for example. It's either go neutral or pick a side. They're tied to most of the SF and CnG alliances.

[D34th]

As mythicknight said, war usually happens over an attack on somebody protectorate or over a alliance who isn't a big player but is used to start the things.

[Omniscient1]

[quote name='Max Cristof' date='11 July 2010 - 07:26 AM' timestamp='1278829567' post='2366723']
If that does happen it leaves a lot of alliances in a really tight spot. Like Sparta for example. It's either go neutral or pick a side. They're tied to most of the SF and CnG alliances.
[/quote]

Yep, there are alot of alliances like that. I wasn't saying I wish Super-Grievances would break up just stating I think if NPO ever comes back out of the gate again they're too polarizing of a force for people not to join together to hate on them.

[Olaf Styke]

If Super-Grievances breaks, it's not going to be any time soon. As for Sparta, we have no reason to stir the pot, we're exactly where we want to be, otherwise we'd be doing something about it.

[Max Cristof]

[quote name='Olaf Styke' date='11 July 2010 - 02:40 AM' timestamp='1278830391' post='2366735']
If Super-Grievances breaks, it's not going to be any time soon. As for Sparta, we have no reason to stir the pot, we're exactly where we want to be, otherwise we'd be doing something about it.
[/quote]

Right. I wasn't saying you would. Sorry if it sounded like it did.

[supercoolyellow]

[quote name='Omniscient1' date='11 July 2010 - 12:49 AM' timestamp='1278827323' post='2366680']
For a while I thought that if anything happened to split up CnG and SF it would come from Polar's sphere. Polar's allies had alot of connects to CnG and less connects to SF. However, the chance for that happening already went and gone last war so I don't know anymore. I'll be glad when people stop using some of the craziest CBs ever to try and roll someone every single night though. The smaller alliances are always wanting to go at it. The big boys in SG seem to have a paranoia that if they split Super-Grievances, NPO will magically rise up and destroy them all. I honestly don't buy that though. Just my thoughts.
[/quote]

I agree with what you say about the Polaris sphere AKA. Bleu 2.o and its also good to know I'm not the only one who has thought that. I think one reason that smaller alliances are willing to go at it, is that they have less to lose. On top of my first comment ITT, that they aren't looking at the big picture.

[Heft]

[quote name='Emperor Whimsical' date='11 July 2010 - 12:21 AM' timestamp='1278825688' post='2366641']
So there IS no way to define a smaller vs. larger players...except goals....which are mostly unknown. Thats what my (sarcastic)response was about. GOD is technically smaller.We've got like 91 nations. Legion has lots more nations than we do. Who is the bigger player here?
[/quote]
A more accurate description is "who has more to lose." Naturally those who stand to lose more (generally those at the top of the pyramid - currently those directly in the SF and I guess CnG maybe bloc(s)) will usually try and clamp down any conflict that doesn't fit their "plan" while those with less to lose will be more willing to take on unknown risk and not-so-sure bets. Naturally there are exceptions but this is the case most of the time.

Also the NPO is going to murder us all.

[wickedj]

[quote]will do everything in their power to avoid any war that might find SF and CnG on different sides[/quote]
no !@#$? Friends dont want to end up fighting each other.....

[Biazt]

[quote name='mythicknight' date='10 July 2010 - 10:50 PM' timestamp='1278816587' post='2366497']
Some small-medium alliance, largely irrelevant to the greater scheme of things, but a useful spark for a side/sides to seize on/around. Thats how these things always go.
[/quote]
This sounds about right.

[KingEd]

[quote name='Emperor Whimsical' date='11 July 2010 - 06:21 AM' timestamp='1278825688' post='2366641']
So there IS no way to define a smaller vs. larger players...except goals....which are mostly unknown. Thats what my (sarcastic)response was about. GOD is technically smaller.We've got like 91 nations. Legion has lots more nations than we do. Who is the bigger player here?
[/quote]

[i]I see what you did there... [/i]
LoL
[quote name='Omniscient1' date='11 July 2010 - 06:49 AM' timestamp='1278827323' post='2366680']
For a while I thought that if anything happened to split up CnG and SF it would come from Polar's sphere. Polar's allies had alot of connects to CnG and less connects to SF. However, the chance for that happening already went and gone last war so I don't know anymore. I'll be glad when people stop using some of the craziest CBs ever to try and roll someone every single night though. The smaller alliances are always wanting to go at it. The big boys in SG seem to have a paranoia that if they split Super-Grievances, NPO will magically rise up and destroy them all. I honestly don't buy that though. Just my thoughts.
[/quote]

C&G/SF splitting would take one hell of a CB...and obviously...there hasn't been one and I doubt there will be one in the near future. Any wars that start will be by mid-size alliances and the bigger players will follow suit. NPO wont start any wars unless it splits C&G/SF...

Want a war ? Spy on an alliance or something...

[D34th]

[quote name='KingEd' date='11 July 2010 - 05:34 AM' timestamp='1278833663' post='2366780']


Want a war ? Spy on an alliance or something...
[/quote]

I heard that ince Karma War spy isn't a CB anymore.

[Ryuzaki]

[quote name='D34th' date='11 July 2010 - 08:56 PM' timestamp='1278834963' post='2366788']
I heard that ince Karma War spy isn't a CB anymore.
[/quote]

People who think that are incredibly foolish.

[Vol Navy]

Most likely imo is that someone will try to cook something up to give NPO another rolling. All the ex-Heg alliances that didn't bail out to join Karma (Sparta, RoK, MHA etc) have been rolled and then rolled again. Plenty of people wanted to get at the PM nations from NPO too.

For all we know someone could be sitting on something from the Karma war itself to strike at Pacifica. It wouldn't be unprecedented.

Second, still a lot of hate towards purple and Legion and some other purples are constantly trolled by some CnG and SF members. So something on that front wouldn't surprise me either.

I can't imagine anyone not in the SF/CnG/NOIR/LEO/Polaris/VE sphere starting anything unless it was just an egregious violation and a clear cut, lock solid CB at this point. Otherwise you are going to run afoul of those alliances and after a month or two of a 3 vs 1 nuclear beatdown, be saddled with reps that remove you from play for 6 months to a year. Even with a clear CB it's still fairly likely that would happen as there is really nothing to stop them from doing it.

[Vol Navy]

[quote name='D34th' date='11 July 2010 - 08:56 AM' timestamp='1278834963' post='2366788']
I heard that ince Karma War spy isn't a CB anymore.
[/quote]


As it turned out it's just according to which side you are spying for...

[Homeboy]

The pixel hugging is whats continuing the prolonged status quo in this game. We might be looking to another winter classic at this rate. If any of you get a CB, do me a favor and use it