Which alliances are the most likely to start the next big war?

[Drai]

These are always hard to predict. I mean look at some of the past ones (OV, Hyperion, though I guess the most recent war could have been guessed).

[R3nowned]

I'll start the next war. Just watch me

:3

I doubt it'll be a sanctioned alliance that starts a war. I'm hoping it starts out between micro-alliances and builds up from there though, with the CB related to raiding and/or insults or !@#$-flinging. Far more excitement watching the treaty web unravel, especially since many micro-alliances have treaties in both spheres of power, or treaty amongst themselves but predominantly treaty one side, creating a mess of a web.

I doubt it though, since many of those alliance leaders wouldn't have the guts to take the alliance to war, especially with a lack of MDP+ treaties.

Also, I believe the CB used by NPO to declare on OV was rather valid. Probably the most valid we've had in the past 3 years. Certainly, the screenshot of the BC-OV treaty seemed rather convincing.

Edited July 11, 2010 by R3nowned

[Believland]

[quote name='IronsightSniper' date='11 July 2010 - 11:25 AM' timestamp='1278861936' post='2366958']
GOONS, \m/, Nordreich, or hell, maybe LUE will come back. Basically, past defunct alliances are here to start a bunches of oats.
[/quote]
LUE is back...

[IronsightSniper]

This is madness!

[lebubu]

[quote name='bigwoody' date='11 July 2010 - 08:08 AM' timestamp='1278828520' post='2366705']
Mushroom Kingdom would much rather pull a Dennis Rodman than start a war directly
[/quote]

Are you saying we want to cross-dress? [img]http://thecastlehall.com/boards/Smileys/kickass/huh.gif[/img]

[Omniscient1]

[quote name='Letum' date='11 July 2010 - 03:09 PM' timestamp='1278857356' post='2366917']
I don't really think that the political field for another great war exists right now. The whole MDP web is essentially a massive cohesive tripolar group, with a second and smaller but isolated grouping around the alliances that lost the last two wars. The latter still bear the scars of war (or in NPO's case, reps), and even in the best case scenario would be unlikely to muster more than a quarter of the strength that SG could field in a war, so you are unlikely to see any kind of jingoist policy there (as it would be political and military suicide to start something). On the other hand, whilst it would be so one sided it would hardly qualify as a "big war", SG could certainly exploit some "incident" with a small peripheral alliance, or magnify charges like the ones that led to the TPF war, but you have to take into account that SG itself is fairly multipolar and the current climate has been quite politically quiet. Both of these increase the requirements over how big any "incident" has to be (or the war could come at the cost of a massive split in the coalition that would likely leave the "winners" at the wrong side of the next great war).

Really, the main problem is, as I said, the political field. We are at a point where the "remnants" of the losers of the last two wars are still around, and the international web is still viewed in terms of two sides with said remnants on one of them, but their ability to provide a world-war level opposition no longer exists. So you need to wait and see how politics will shift over the next few months (and it is still too early after the last war to get any significant shake-up). You do get a rather interesting possibility of smaller coalitions (i.e, no side going above 30-40m-ish NS)being able to fight rather even wars, but it is still hard to keep those from escalating (though less hard than previous conflicts). The moment one side starts losing badly, you'd have their allies step in and either make it into a curbstomp (if one side is much less well-connected than the other) or a quickly negotiated light peace (if they are equally well connected or the war is unpopular).
[/quote]


I want to point out just because the ex-Heg says they aren't in a position to fight doesn't mean they won't be attacked.

Other than that I think this post and the many others describe what is going on right now. I think all the drama being kicked up on the Super-Grievance side is simply out of boredom. Once summer is over and everyone is back to actually doing stuff they will go back to holding hands and singing "Kumbaya" and "Death to Pacifica".

[KingEd]

Well since TPE is a "micro-alliance"...I'll see if I can stir the pot.

[i]Don't count on it, I value my Infra[/i]

[KingEd]

[quote name='Omniscient1' date='11 July 2010 - 06:21 PM' timestamp='1278868894' post='2367024']
I want to point out just because the ex-Heg says they aren't in a position to fight doesn't mean they won't be attacked.

Other than that I think this post and the many others describe what is going on right now. I think all the drama being kicked up on the Super-Grievance side is simply out of boredom. Once summer is over and everyone is back to actually doing stuff they will go back to holding hands and singing "Kumbaya" and "Death to Pacifica".
[/quote]

Lets be a little bit more radical...and pull a [s]Pacifica[/s][i]Continuum[/i] 2.0 and roll the Neutrals for their excessive threat and then deprive them of their Technology for a month or two.

Edited July 11, 2010 by KingEd

[Kevanovia]

SF and CnG will be at each others' throats and go to war, leaving room for Pacifica and friends to regain their place as the dominate force in CN and will re-create the Initiative to place the proper choke-hold on the rest of the CN community. Cue GWII 2.0, etc.

I also fully expect Legion to buckle under the peer pressure that CN is giving them and attempt to be liked by one of the more powerful blocs of alliances, whether that be CnG or SF. (which I believe will be the cause of the war) Until Pacfica takes back over, then Legion will return to them. However I also believe that someone will end up taking the helm and reforming The Legion and taking her back to her old roots, making her an awesome alliance once again.

Edited July 11, 2010 by Kevanovia

[R3nowned]

[quote name='KingEd' date='12 July 2010 - 04:25 AM' timestamp='1278869105' post='2367028']
Well since TPE is a "micro-alliance"...I'll see if I can stir the pot.

[i]Don't count on it, I value my Infra[/i]
[/quote]
Well, the definition of what a micro alliance is is arbitrary. I certainly don't consider TPE a micro.

[MercyFallout]

Imperial Assault Alliance. CB? Civil War.


You heard it right here folks.

[Facade]

[quote name='MercyFallout' date='11 July 2010 - 02:02 PM' timestamp='1278871311' post='2367061']
Imperial Assault Alliance. CB? Civil War.


You heard it right here folks.
[/quote]

The loris hungers comrade.

[R3nowned]

[quote name='MercyFallout' date='12 July 2010 - 05:02 AM' timestamp='1278871311' post='2367061']
Imperial Assault Alliance. CB? Civil War.


You heard it right here folks.
[/quote]
50 tech that Imperial Assault Alliances wins... and loses

[Omniscient1]

[quote name='Kevanovia' date='11 July 2010 - 06:44 PM' timestamp='1278870278' post='2367044']
SF and CnG will be at each others' throats and go to war, leaving room for Pacifica and friends to regain their place as the dominate force in CN and will re-create the Initiative to place the proper choke-hold on the rest of the CN community. Cue GWII 2.0, etc.

I also fully expect Legion to buckle under the peer pressure that CN is giving them and attempt to be liked by one of the more powerful blocs of alliances, whether that be CnG or SF. (which I believe will be the cause of the war) Until Pacfica takes back over, then Legion will return to them. However I also believe that someone will end up taking the helm and reforming The Legion and taking her back to her old roots, making her an awesome alliance once again.
[/quote]


This Legion insult brought to you once again by Kevanovia.

[Emperor Whimsical]

[quote]
I also fully expect Legion to buckle under the peer pressure that CN is giving them and attempt to be liked by one of the more powerful blocs of alliances, whether that be CnG or SF. (which I believe will be the cause of the war)[/quote]

CnG can Have Legion. We don't want them.

EDIT: misread.

Edited July 11, 2010 by Emperor Whimsical

[Rush Sykes]

[quote name='Emperor Whimsical' date='11 July 2010 - 02:46 PM' timestamp='1278873997' post='2367098']
CnG can Have Legion. We don't want them.

EDIT: misread.
[/quote]

Good sir, this is not a draft! Also, if we get Legion, I must insist that RyanGDI replace Hoo in RoK to make things fair.

[KingEd]

[quote name='R3nowned' date='11 July 2010 - 06:47 PM' timestamp='1278870458' post='2367049']
Well, the definition of what a micro alliance is is arbitrary. I certainly don't consider TPE a micro.
[/quote]

I'll take that as a complement, Thank You.

[quote name='Rush Sykes' date='11 July 2010 - 07:51 PM' timestamp='1278874255' post='2367103']
Good sir, this is not a draft! Also, if we get Legion, I must insist that RyanGDI replace Hoo in RoK to make things fair.
[/quote]

Your right, it's more of a BID for Legion...name your price Legion!

[Emperor Whimsical]

[quote name='Rush Sykes' date='11 July 2010 - 11:51 AM' timestamp='1278874255' post='2367103']
Good sir, this is not a draft! Also, if we get Legion, I must insist that RyanGDI replace Hoo in RoK to make things fair.
[/quote]

Actually about RyanGDI...

http://forums.cybernations.net/index.php?showtopic=58318

Couldn't do it if I tried. You can have legion. You guys are LUE after all . Its pretty much the same.

[Ogaden]

[quote name='Artigo' date='11 July 2010 - 01:52 AM' timestamp='1278838326' post='2366815']
With reps at the level they're at these days I don't see anyone starting a war without a solid CB.
[/quote]

Wasn't everyone complaining in the last war about all the white peace?

[D34th]

[quote name='James Dahl' date='11 July 2010 - 05:22 PM' timestamp='1278876157' post='2367133']
Wasn't everyone complaining in the last war about all the white peace?
[/quote]

Usually people just complain about white peace when they are in the losing side.

[Derantol]

The only thing I can predict at this point is that the next war will either be the beginning of a relatively quick demise of a bloc or the culmination of a long, slow, fiery death. In the event that CnG and SF end up on opposite sides, it's more than likely that one group will be on the verge of breaking.

Well, there is one more things I can predict... another iteration of this thread.

[jeff barr]

[quote name='James Dahl' date='11 July 2010 - 08:22 PM' timestamp='1278876157' post='2367133']
Wasn't everyone complaining in the last war about all the white peace?
[/quote]
NSO had to pay $1. I think part of NSO died that day.
[img]http://robotsinc.biz/lucite.gif[/img]

EDIT: Picture represents Moldavi's last moments as Emperor.....Covered in Lucite, in the famous Lorne Green Battlestar Galactica Death Pose. The best death ever of course.

Edited July 11, 2010 by jeff barr

[Timeline]

[quote name='Emperor Whimsical' date='11 July 2010 - 02:59 AM' timestamp='1278813568' post='2366458']
Us, ideally. The Declaring has always won, unless you want to get technical with it. like karma, etc. I'd be interesting to see a war that wasn't planned before it began.
[/quote]

A war that is not planned, come on you know most of the leaders of all the major alliances lack bravery, they will make sure they have the backing of everyone possible, in order to make sure they will win with out much harm to their infra.

I have yet to see a war where alliances just followed there treaties and no one planned to back stab or cancel on anyone.

[Sephiroth]

It doesn't really matter who starts the war other than having some big alliances ready to back them if they want to win, then the wars tend to grow with people jumping in on both sides for their own reasons without caring how it started initially.

[Delta1212]

[quote name='Timeline' date='11 July 2010 - 03:55 PM' timestamp='1278878088' post='2367163']
A war that is not planned, come on you know most of the leaders of all the major alliances lack bravery, they will make sure they have the backing of everyone possible, in order to make sure they will win with out much harm to their infra.

I have yet to see a war where alliances just followed there treaties and no one planned to back stab or cancel on anyone.
[/quote]
"I could win this war with some simple precautions but I won't bother with that because it will be more entertaining for other people if I just let myself lose."