A Statement from Doomhouse

[Sardonic]

Even if our enemies could hypothetically continue to war against us (they can't, our defensive wars are down in the 50 area, most of which is being done by NSO) they won't, because the governments of the enemy coalition and us are already in the diplomatic process, a diplomatic process I expect to find a conclusion one way or another. So all of you caterwauling about dragging the war on for months should save your breath.

[Wabooz]

heh people "saving their breath" in this thread? Surely you jest

[ChairmanHal]

[quote name='flak attack' timestamp='1300821196' post='2673264']
I really thought you were about to make a Ramirus joke posting that picture.[/quote]

Too easy...way too easy.

FYI: Scary but true, Gramlins is still around, as is Ramirus.

[ktarthan]

[quote name='Wabooz' timestamp='1300821353' post='2673268']
heh people "saving their breath" in this thread? Surely you jest
[/quote]
What this thread needs is a betting pool for how many pages it will be when peace is finally declared.

[ChairmanHal]

[quote name='Sardonic' timestamp='1300821284' post='2673267']
Even if our enemies could hypothetically continue to war against us (they can't, our defensive wars are down in the 50 area, most of which is being done by NSO) they won't, because the governments of the enemy coalition and us are already in the diplomatic process, a diplomatic process I expect to find a conclusion one way or another. So all of you caterwauling about dragging the war on for months should save your breath.[/quote]

Diplomatic processes can be dragged out depending upon the demands of those doing the talking...sometimes for years.

[quote name='ktarthan' timestamp='1300823072' post='2673274']
What this thread needs is a betting pool for how many pages it will be when peace is finally declared.[/quote]

Less than the infamous Gramlins thread, more than it should...but then again I'm wondering where I can get down with some action on the over/under.

Edited March 22, 2011 by ChairmanHal

[Lusitan]

[quote name='Schattenmann' timestamp='1300808009' post='2673156']
This "reply" ignores the underlying fact that NPO--by itself or even with allies like Legion, TPF, and Invicta--is physically unable to pose a threat to Umbrella or Doomhouse. The logic that you're being the magnanimous party in your unwarranted war of aggression by not asking for reps is eclipsed by your demand that they allow their entire alliance to be nuked into oblivion for a month, and that your erroneous and paranoid attitude that NPO's pre-war stats constituted a threat will mean that you will consider them a threat when they have rebuilt and will just roll them again.
[/quote]

The demand only goes as far as requesting that ~40 nations out of 550+ to be nuked to oblivion. Whether it is for a month or not, that is above my pay grade to discuss.

Contrarily to what your speech implies, they weren't rolled out of the blue. They were rolled because their entry in the opposite side of the conflict was imminent. Different stages of threat. Back then they were a threat to the coalition as a whole. Right now it's a liability to just let them walk away with their upper tier untouched. NPO is a threat in both cases, but in different ways and for different reasons.


[quote name='Schattenmann' timestamp='1300808480' post='2673158']
Additionally, cut the crap with this "white peace" lie. Demanding NPO take attacks for one month as a condition for peace is not white peace, and Doomhouse's demands for $3.3 billion in reps plus 60,000 tech for the crime of honoring treaties on NPO's side is laughable.
[/quote]

I am under the impression that the reparations are demanded not because they honored the treaties, but because they didn't fight and put most their upper tiers in peace mode. While I don't know for sure, and my word is worth for what it is, I think it's likely if the alliances come out of peace mode some of those rep figures will go away.

[quote name='Lord Brendan' timestamp='1300809672' post='2673164']
A month of full-blown nuclear warfare with some of the most impressive upper tiers on the planet will be more damaging to NPO than the reparations they paid after Karma, although less drawn-out.

The New Pacific Order is not a significant threat to the nations of Umbrella, and will never be so unless you suffer a catastrophic defeat.
[/quote]

Meh, a month at war with Umbrella won't do that. In a week or two 40 NPO nations would be reduced to the lower levels of infrastructure. Then it would be up to the warchests they kept to rebuild. Saying that NPO would be nuked by Umbrella for a month is hardly realistic.

[Beefspari]

[quote name='Lusitan' timestamp='1300824248' post='2673281']
Meh, a month at war with Umbrella won't do that. In a week or two 40 NPO nations would be reduced to the lower levels of infrastructure. Then it would be up to the warchests they kept to rebuild. Saying that NPO would be nuked by Umbrella for a month is hardly realistic.
[/quote]
DH obviously forced NPO to not have warchests and 30 days of war with us would [i][b]completely destroy[/b][/i] them.

[flak attack]

[quote name='ChairmanHal' timestamp='1300823203' post='2673275']
Diplomatic processes can be dragged out depending upon the demands of those doing the talking...sometimes for years.
[/quote]
We're looking at you, NADC.

[quote name='ChairmanHal' timestamp='1300823203' post='2673275']
Less than the infamous Gramlins thread, more than it should...but then again I'm wondering where I can get down with some action on the over/under.
[/quote]
If I were a betting man, I would say we've got less than 10 pages to go.

[Ardus]

[quote name='flak attack' timestamp='1300826067' post='2673296']
We're looking at you, NADC.[/quote]

It wasn't NADC's demands that keep them in the war (read: they made none, we offered white surrender), so much as their desire to continue financing my own wars against them.

[ChairmanHal]

[quote name='flak attack' timestamp='1300826067' post='2673296']
We're looking at you, NADC.[/quote]

[img]http://www.theforce.net/kids/coruscant/probe_droid/palpatine.jpg[/img]

Quite naturally I favor all the holdouts possible for as long as possible...

[quote]If I were a betting man, I would say we've got less than 10 pages to go.[/quote]

Nope...that thread was 258 pages.

[BamaBuc]

[quote name='Lusitan' timestamp='1300824248' post='2673281']
They were rolled because their entry in the opposite side of the conflict was imminent.
[/quote]
It's been two months. Got any evidence yet?

-Bama

[flak attack]

[quote name='ChairmanHal' timestamp='1300828412' post='2673308']
Nope...that thread was 258 pages.
[/quote]
I'm talking about for this one, not until we pass that one. There's not a chance in hell we'll beat it out.


[quote name='BamaBuc' timestamp='1300828590' post='2673309']
It's been two months. Got any evidence yet?

-Bama
[/quote]
They told Hydra they were committed to another ally already. Hydra was the only ally they had on the PB side. Done.

Edited March 22, 2011 by flak attack

[Learz]

Ehh, screw studying. This looks like it'll be more fun.

Ok, based on the posts I’ve been seeing, I’m going to have to simplify this down. Bear in mind that some details are going to get stepped on as a result, so if there are grey areas or some minor ambiguities, I can’t help it. Likewise, I suspect most of you have never really done any finance work. Chances are you simply showed up and said “I’d like a tech deal please” and everything was taken care of for you. So it will be a bit of an uphill battle for me to show you this, but here we go.

The first thing you have to understand is that finance operates in a world of numbers. Math. So the first step down the rabbit hole is to take all the information, all the ideas, all the knowledge you have, and toss it out the window. I’m talking your opinions, your propaganda, your feel-good attitude, your idea that your winning, all that. Throw it all out. We’re just dealing with numbers here. With me? Good. Now that we have numbers, we need to strip those to the essentials. I won’t get into the technical details behind CN economy for simplicities sake. So all you need to know is that warchests, tech, income, militaries, all that: throw it out. It doesn’t mean anything (well, at this point, but it will become clear later). Throw everything out.

We now have aid slots. This is a primary foundation. The aid slot system in CN is antique and outdated, but it’s what we have to work with. There have been a number of good suggestions over the years to improve it (including a novel idea by Seerow), but these have fallen by the wayside. In the end, we have an aid slot system that can transfer fixed amounts over a 10 day period. What does this means? It means *aid flows* are fixed on a per-nation basis. What’s an aid flow? It’s the “aid train” that’s been referred to. Basically, a stream of aid to a nation or group of nations. Ok?

Now, to create a streamlined example so you can see how aid works. Let’s assume we have Umbrella with 50 aid slots, and GOONS with 100 aid slots. This means Umbrella, at maximum efficiency, can only aid half of GOONS every 10 days. Assuming default aid slots, the Umbrella nations would only be able to send a full aid flow to half of GOON nations (that is, half would have inbound filled aid slots, and Umbrella would have filled outbound aid slots). And that’s only every 10 days.

Moving onto a more complex example, GOONS has approximately 390 nations in the killzone of NPO&Co. I’m going to round up to 400 so the numbers are easier to work with. Umbrella has 98 nations, I’m assuming all are aid flow ready (rounding up to 100 for ease of use). This means GOONS has (assuming default aid slots) 2000 aid slots that need filling. Umbrella (assuming all have the DRA) has a grand total of 600 aid slots. This means we have a 600/2000 ratio, or 0.3 efficiency (1 means perfect efficiency, 0 means no efficiency). So, Umbrella operating at maximum capability, is only able to supply a little under a third of GOONS with aid every 10 days. Two-thirds of GOONS would be left unaided *for the entire war* due to this. Which is why we can expect additional aid from MK, TOP, RIA, and whatever else is sending aid. I hope you can start to understand the magnitude of this problem. But we’re just getting started.

Before we deal with problems of alliances sending aid flows *out*, let’s look at the results of incoming aid flows.

Assume a standard nation. Actually, let’s take a look at [url="http://www.cybernations.net/nation_drill_display.asp?Nation_ID=147313"]this fine example of the MK war machine[/url]. This guy just received a full batch of aid, totaling 18 million, 50 tech, and 10000 soldiers. He has a grand total of… wait for it... $56,000. After collecting. This is because there is a fundamental flaw in aid flows. It comes from an obsolete CN worldview. In effect, permanent aid CANNOT support a nation at war. It’s that simple. Why? Let’s take a look at the numbers. 18mil over 10 days means 1.8 million a day (for teh majority of GOONS who do not have DRA's, this is reduced to 1.5 mil a day, but I will go with 1.8mil for ease of use). The quicker among you probably already see the problem, but I will break it down.

In effective nuclear combat range (1K infra), 1.8mil a day is pennies. Let’s take a look. You have to pay bills (about 400K). Buy a nuke (about 500K). Replace losses (about 1mil). Buy infra back up (about 750K). Rebuy spies (2-4mil). I could keep going, but you get the idea. And this does not take into account navies, or a WRC (which means more expensive units, and two nuke purchases daily). 1.8mil a day simply does not cut it. The best you can do is turtle, and heaven help you if you lose a GA. You’re screwed for the next 10 days at that point. So, with nonstop max aid flows, a nation could expect to simply sit there, and maybe get the occasional nuke off. Now, this is JUST on a 1v1 battle. If the defending nation is outnumbered, there is no hope.

Now that we have disabused the notion of aid flows saving the day, let’s take a look at the sending alliance. Back to the aid slots. Assuming Umbrella again with their 600 aid slots, you have to assume that they are willing to donate the entirety of their alliance for 6 months (conservative estimate) to flood aid to you. This means no free aid slots. No tech deals. Umbrella’s growth is effectively zeroed (yes, they can still buy infra, but that’s worthless in a war due to the prevalence of WRC’s). Technology is what matters. It’s why Umbrella isn’t being engaged this war, due to their tech advantage. But if they are willing to stop all tech increases for 6 months, they give up their advantage. While they are sitting there, sending aid flows to GOONS and watching the money get thrown onto the fire, the remaining 20K people on CN are increasing their tech. They gain 6 months on Umbrella. Umbrella is now 6 months weaker. They are 6 months closer to being a target. They simply can’t afford that: no alliance can. Given every aid slot they have to prop up a failing offensive is stupid – or a Pyrrhic victory, like I said.

Yes, you can argue that they don’t have to give all their aid slots to the offensive, but I’m sure you’ll agree that ANY decrease in tech efficiency is a terrible fate to fall upon any alliance, much less an alliance that is built upon tech. And if they are willing to give up even half their aid slots, this does not help the war. Remember, in our example GOONS is only get 600/2000 aid slots filled by Umbrella. If Umbrella cut back 50%, that’s only 300/2000, or a .15 efficiency. Who’s picking up the slack? For how long? It’s a flawed idea to think that aid can happen like this. Sigh.

If you’ve made it this far, hopefully you can now see that funding GOONS to fight a losing war is a recipe for failure. Granted, you might get a few months of mileage out of it, but it is physically impossible over the long term. And even if you could somehow convince your uppertier nations to forgo all tech deals and, ultimately, sacrifice their alliance’s security, it STILL won’t help you win the war.

Now to address some other points made:
Janax on activity rate: Activity rate has no effect on the math. Remember, I told you to throw all that out, because we’re assuming 100% efficiency for the calculations. And aid slot usage? Hah! TOP, MK, and Umbrella members would come to me because I was more efficient then their alliance aid system. Even a few Argent people IIRC. So please, don’t make me laugh.

Spider Jerusalem on my qualifications: Hopefully this post can remove some of the incorrect assumptions you seem to have about financial people. Regarding guerrilla warfare, again, like so many of my points, it has gone clear over your head. When I say ZI’ed, I’m not saying I just sat there. I fought every step of the way, gaining months of experience. Further, if you think NONE and Vox were inefficient in fighting, you’re clueless as to what went on. And “neglible damage”? The damage is not important. The survival aspect is. I dare you to empty your entire warchest, zero your cash on hand, then (by yourself) take on MHA. No aid, no help, no allies, nothing. You fighting MHA. Alone. Oh, and they get to activate their treaties and bring in their allies. Against you. That’s the equivalent of what I did for months at a time (except I had no wonders and almost no improvements). And I was not bill locked once. The point is that effective fighters can go for insanely long periods of time with no aid, and their hundreds (or in my case, thousands) of opponents got nonstop aid flows. It did not change the outcome! Aid flows do not dramatically change the outcome! It can weigh the scale, sure, but has a minimal overall effect. It’s clear you have no experience with this sort of thing.


I believe that’s everything. Hopefully this will put to rest a number of propaganda lines floating around. In nutshell, if you believe that DH can effectively sustain a long period of war, or that DH will succeed due to their aid flows to smaller nations, you are either delusional or being lied to. Or maybe both. Now, as a qualification, I’m not saying DH is going to lose. They certainly have an excellent shot at winning this war. But it’s not guaranteed, and it will cost more than they win in the end, if things continue on the current track.

Well, that’s 30 minutes I’d like to have back. I suddenly remember why I steer clear of the OWF.

Edits for minor errors. Also, to clarify, the 400K for bills is referencing a nuclear nation, which will most likely have a number of wonders and improvements. For smaller, less advanced nations, such as an average GOON nation, they will have slightly more cash to play with as a result. But the example holds.

Edited March 22, 2011 by Learz

[Vol Navy]

I think it's pretty hilarious that people are bragging they will keep getting aid for months and months. It's like Umbrella, MK, etc are paying reps to GOONs but instead of GOONs actually growing they are just stagnating too while barely keeping a pulse. And yes I know GOONs gained a bunch of new members during the war and has managed to up it's total ns by 100k or so since they bottomed out. Still, they aren't using all the money they are getting to do more than merely survive.

But as was pointed out by Learz and others, this sets back your entire side by months. As for us, we frankly don't care because we've been told that our friends and by extension us, have no right to exist or prosper on Bob.

[ktarthan]

[quote name='Learz' timestamp='1300829231' post='2673314']
-cut for length-
[/quote]
I see two major flaws in your write-up.

1) You make the assumption that all 400 of GOONS's nations require constant aid to continue fighting. We aren't even at a 1:1 nation to war ratio, and most of our wars are offensive. We're dictating the flow of the battle, and the battle is flowing just fine.
2) You vastly over-estimate the daily cost of an average Goon during wartime. Have a look at our Wonder and Improvement counts, and estimate how many of us actually need to spend half of that. No nukes, no spies, no navy. Also, a good 1k infra nuclear nation will have Labour Camps, which will bring daily bills down to about 200k.

Edited March 22, 2011 by ktarthan

[Timeline]

[quote name='Learz' timestamp='1300829231' post='2673314']
Ehh, screw studying. This looks like it'll be more fun.

[/quote]

I did not quote your whole post due to the size, but wanted to say thank you it was a very nice read.

[BamaBuc]

[quote name='flak attack' timestamp='1300828690' post='2673310']
They told Hydra they were committed to another ally already. Hydra was the only ally they had on the PB side. Done.
[/quote]
Interesting, this is the first I've heard of this. Screenshots? Logs?

What I find curious is that an imminent Pacifican entry was not cited in the declaration of war. Indeed, Archon's post claimed that Pacifica's allies were acting to protect them [i]from[/i] the war. If you attacked because you thought they were going to come in anyway, why not just say so?

-Bama

Edited March 22, 2011 by BamaBuc

[Vol Navy]

[quote name='BamaBuc' timestamp='1300830946' post='2673328']
Interesting, this is the first I've heard of this. Screenshots? Logs?

What I find curious is that an imminent Pacifican entry was not cited in the declaration of war. Indeed, Archon's post claimed that Pacifica's allies were acting to protect them [i]from[/i] the war. If you attacked because you thought they were going to come in anyway, why not just say so?

-Bama
[/quote]


They hadn't needed to change the story to that line of reasoning at that time. They figured everyone would just say "LOLZZZ NPO sucks!" and hail them as heroes again.

[+Zeke+]

[quote name='Beefspari' timestamp='1300820515' post='2673258']If you really think those 100k+ nations in Umbrella and MK are suffering from sending out $18m/10 days then you're a little bit loopy. I can assure you those losses are significantly less than what the Legion and NPO nations in peace mode are suffering.[/quote]

But you can't buy tech if you are aiding all you can. Funny thing though, it seems we can get tech in hippie mode. We can't pay for it, but then our troops don't buy it either. They raid the juicy targets and after spending what they want they send up the occasional tech freebee to us.

Got to love that cycle. In a long tortured way you guys are buying tech for our hippie nations.

Sweet.

[Lusitan]

[quote name='flak attack' timestamp='1300828690' post='2673310']
They told Hydra they were committed to another ally already. Hydra was the only ally they had on the PB side. Done.
[/quote]

We should make a signature out of this so people stop asking

[Feanor Noldorin]

[quote name='+Zeke+' timestamp='1300832495' post='2673355']
But you can't buy tech if you are aiding all you can.
[/quote]
Why does MK/Umbrella's upper tier (80k and above) need tech right now? I don't see anyone that is not already allied to them that is even close to matching the number of upper tier nations they posses. If they don't import any tech in the coming 2-3 months that isn't going to affect them at all.

Edited March 22, 2011 by Feanor Noldorin

[Ryan Greenberg]

I blame HoT 1/3 of the pages in the thread. Arguing the same things over again won't do anything...

[Monster]

[quote name='Vol Navy' timestamp='1300832371' post='2673350']
They hadn't needed to change the story to that line of reasoning at that time. They figured everyone would just say "LOLZZZ NPO sucks!" and hail them as heroes again.
[/quote]

It was never the line of reasoning, basically. It was protecting NPO in the sense of guarding them from entering too early in reference to the pezstar thing "NPO cannot come out now. They must be protected." Archon wasn't around to clarify and people kept assuming we said NPO wasn't going to enter. Pretty much everyone involved saw it as a preempt of NPO. Simple as that. I already detailed how Archon viewed the conflict multiple times, so I'm getting sick of "but the DoW said NPO wasn't going to enter," when it never said that in explicit terms and people jumped to their own conclusions.


Also, I'm getting tired of the radio show story being cited as some sort of authoritative account. I would have never supported a "boredom war" and MK knows this.

Edited March 22, 2011 by Antoine Roquentin

[Varianz]

[quote name='Lusitan' timestamp='1300833214' post='2673369']
We should make a signature out of this so people stop asking
[/quote]
So far, no proof has been provided. Also, no one is answering the obvious question: why would NPO tell Hydra that?

[Lusitan]

[quote name='+Zeke+' timestamp='1300832495' post='2673355']
But you can't buy tech if you are aiding all you can. Funny thing though, it seems we can get tech in hippie mode. We can't pay for it, but then our troops don't buy it either. They raid the juicy targets and after spending what they want they send up the occasional tech freebee to us.

Got to love that cycle. In a long tortured way you guys are buying tech for our hippie nations.

Sweet.
[/quote]



I'll save you a whole lot of trouble and a hectic conclusion in a few days: we're not having problems aiding people and buying tech. But thanks for your concern.