Penkala Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 (edited) We all knew Karma was going to happen months and months before fighting broke out. And we knew it would be the most important war in the history of the game. What we didn't know was who would win. Months before the war -- 6 months in fact, I believe, shortly after the war against Polaris -- King Srqt and I compiled a list of alliances that we thought would be involved. At that time, Gremlins had left the Continuum, and we thought that they may be the spark that caused the next global war -- hence the file name of "Gremlins War". There were ultimately 6 versions of this document, though only a couple remain. I took what we had worked on initially, which included the alliance name and their NS, and expanded upon it. As the war neared, I added columns for nations, average NS, nukes, and "critical wonders" -- some of the more important military wonders that helped gauge an alliance's preparation for war. Our projections were pretty accurate, considering how far out we were projecting. -Version 3.0 (2/21/2009): https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AilG4K5xUD-fdGxiLXlWX3VQZjJhbUp6dWhPYVNNN3c&output=html -Version 4.0 (3/30/2009): https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AilG4K5xUD-fdG8taktUMk9PMTBDeklFUTFRMFRuaUE&output=html And this list is from the start of the war (maybe a few days before, I don't remember.) It's the breakdown of 5k+ infra alliances. https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AilG4K5xUD-fdFlXZFRzN1psRzZCdGo3ZnV0WWxnbFE&output=html Found these a while back and I figured I'd share them. Edited March 15, 2011 by Penkala Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Brendan Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 What was the cut-off for the 5k+ count of alliances? There are definitely more alliances than that that had high tier nations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penkala Posted March 15, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 [quote name='Lord Brendan' timestamp='1300221215' post='2665757'] What was the cut-off for the 5k+ count of alliances? There are definitely more alliances than that that had high tier nations. [/quote] I don't remember, to be honest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Fingolfin Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 Certainly brings back memories, fun times in that war. Forgot how small/large certain alliances were at the time as compared to their current standing. Thanks for the stats Penkala Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jens of the desert Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 Greenland Republic had 2189 nations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Greenberg Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 (edited) I love it how everyone is nostalgic for Karma. Man I am getting old.... Edited March 15, 2011 by Ryan Greenberg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zoomzoomzoom Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 I find it interesting that an alliance like TOOL was not included despite being sanctioned at the time of the war, but someone like Ubercon was. Were you guys attempting to make it seem like your side had the advantage even though it was supposedly largely questionable? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kzoppistan Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 That's pretty cool, Penkala. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flak attack Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 [quote name='Zoomzoomzoom' timestamp='1300226968' post='2665838'] I find it interesting that an alliance like TOOL was not included despite being sanctioned at the time of the war, but someone like Ubercon was. Were you guys attempting to make it seem like your side had the advantage even though it was supposedly largely questionable? [/quote] They may have been up in the air on TOOL or thought TOOL would be neutral. Presumably the same reason Polar and MCXA weren't included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fyfe XIV Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 (edited) About the same number of nations and twice the NS Edit: and those stats were BEFORE the war Edited March 15, 2011 by Fyfe XIV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogar Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 I remember the original documents for the "hegemony" side of our projected allies, they were not accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flak attack Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 [quote name='Mogar' timestamp='1300230349' post='2665887'] I remember the original documents for the "hegemony" side of our projected allies, they were not accurate. [/quote] Of course they weren't. It would have been suicide to attack if you had known what you were going to be up against. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doitzel Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 [quote name='Mogar' timestamp='1300230349' post='2665887'] I remember the original documents for the "hegemony" side of our projected allies, they were not accurate. [/quote] I remember lol'ing hard at those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haflinger Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 [quote name='flak attack' timestamp='1300230726' post='2665893'] Of course they weren't. It would have been suicide to attack if you had known what you were going to be up against. [/quote] Umm, those documents were not, ah, widely accepted. Shall we say. Or, in other words... the Hegemony side knew it was suicide to attack, and did it anyway, believing that as time went on things would get even worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willaim Kreiger Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 (edited) I am curious to know what was substituted for "Edit" above the enemy alliance columns Edited March 15, 2011 by Willaim Kreiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogar Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 (edited) [quote name='flak attack' timestamp='1300230726' post='2665893'] Of course they weren't. It would have been suicide to attack if you had known what you were going to be up against. [/quote] I dont think NPO realized how many people were already on the opposing side. [quote name='Doitzel' timestamp='1300231725' post='2665905'] I remember lol'ing hard at those. [/quote] I did too, even though it wasnt all that unny we were going to go up against almost double our NS. [quote name='Haflinger' timestamp='1300232823' post='2665924'] Umm, those documents were not, ah, widely accepted. Shall we say. Or, in other words... the Hegemony side knew it was suicide to attack, and did it anyway, believing that as time went on things would get even worse. [/quote] when i first got a copy of them, I listed almost every alliance that wasnt going to be on our side, though being right didnt win me any prizes. edit: also, I was really the only one with an SDI/MP in IRAN? I thought Batallion had an SDI at least. Edited March 15, 2011 by Mogar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Navy Posted March 16, 2011 Report Share Posted March 16, 2011 We in TPF knew it was going to be a long and drawn out curbstomp and not in our favor. We'd been on high alert to prepare for a long 1 vs 3 type war since the previous December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Brendan Posted March 16, 2011 Report Share Posted March 16, 2011 [quote name='flak attack' timestamp='1300229067' post='2665867'] They may have been up in the air on TOOL or thought TOOL would be neutral. Presumably the same reason Polar and MCXA weren't included. [/quote] I think TOOL was an easy prediction, and everyone outside of Gremlins knew where MCXA was going. Polar was definitely up in the air though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arcturus Jefferson Posted March 16, 2011 Report Share Posted March 16, 2011 NPO giving TOP an out was a huge break for the Karma side of things. It would've been [i]real[/i] tight had just TOP switched sides, but then again, TOP on the NPO's side would've messed up all sorts of things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KagetheSecond Posted March 16, 2011 Report Share Posted March 16, 2011 OMFG at the end of march: Nations: 20 NS: 841,299 AvgNS: 42,065 Nukes: 251 MPs: 12 WRC: 4 HNMS: 3 SDI: 8 OMFG now: Nations: 22 NS: 1,489,710 AvgNS: 67,714 Nukes: 402 MPs: 18 WRC: 10 HNMS: 11 SDIs: 17 My goodness. What a big change! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emperor Whimsical Posted March 16, 2011 Report Share Posted March 16, 2011 [quote name='Arcturus Jefferson' timestamp='1300236871' post='2665970'] NPO giving TOP an out was a huge break for the Karma side of things. It would've been [i]real[/i] tight had just TOP switched sides, but then again, TOP on the NPO's side would've messed up all sorts of things. [/quote] TOP attacked through an ODP or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penkala Posted March 16, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 16, 2011 (edited) [quote name='Zoomzoomzoom' timestamp='1300226968' post='2665838'] I find it interesting that an alliance like TOOL was not included despite being sanctioned at the time of the war, but someone like Ubercon was. Were you guys attempting to make it seem like your side had the advantage even though it was supposedly largely questionable? [/quote] There were over a hundred alliances in Karma, and obviously not all 100 of them are listed on our side. There are two main reasons alliances may not show up in these charts: 1) We didn't think of them 2) We didn't know which side they'd be on or believed they might be neutral [quote]I am curious to know what was substituted for "Edit" above the enemy alliance columns [/quote] Something which would probably get me into trouble around here. [quote]We in TPF knew it was going to be a long and drawn out curbstomp and not in our favor. We'd been on high alert to prepare for a long 1 vs 3 type war since the previous December. [/quote] Our first version of the projections was completed in late October 2008. Almost exactly 6 months before the war. Edited March 16, 2011 by Penkala Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arcturus Jefferson Posted March 16, 2011 Report Share Posted March 16, 2011 [quote name='Emperor Whimsical' timestamp='1300237472' post='2665977'] TOP attacked through an ODP or something. [/quote] Uh, ok? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delta1212 Posted March 16, 2011 Report Share Posted March 16, 2011 [quote name='Lord Brendan' timestamp='1300234973' post='2665953'] I think TOOL was an easy prediction, and everyone outside of Gremlins knew where MCXA was going. Polar was definitely up in the air though. [/quote] With retrospect. I think they were less of an easy call prior to Karma actually breaking out. I'm not saying it was a 50/50 split, but people seem to have a bit of a blindspot regarding Karma and post-Karma loyalties forgetting that some people who were entrenched on one side in the aftermath were somewhat split until the war actually broke out and forced a decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flak attack Posted March 16, 2011 Report Share Posted March 16, 2011 [quote name='Emperor Whimsical' timestamp='1300237472' post='2665977'] TOP attacked through an ODP or something. [/quote] Yes, but he's referring to NPO attacking in the middle of negotiations led by TOP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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