What will the next war look like?

[Augustus Autumn]

[quote name='zzzptm' timestamp='1279297695' post='2374586']
1. [b]Pacifican revenge.[/b] NPO gets its old gang back together and starts gunning for its enemies.
Short term outlook: Not likely. Numbers are not yet on Pacifica's side.
Long term outlook: Very likely. Once C&G/SF splits - or if a resurgent Pacifica makes itself useful in a war resulting from such a split - they have a strong chance at having a large enough bloc to re-establish themselves in an eminent position of world power. NPO would have to be careful to avoid being drawn out by a fake split designed to put it out in the open for another beat-down.[/quote]

It lacks subtlety, it lacks style and it doesn't really offer much of a benefit to Pacifica. They had the number one spot, got pounded down for it and are doing rather nicely keeping on as they are. Unless it is the aim of Pacifica to gear back up and attempt to reestablish Pax Pacifica I would be surprised if they didn't stay out of the big stuff for a long while.

[quote name='zzzptm' timestamp='1279297695' post='2374586']
2. [b]C&G/SF split.[/b] The Big One that makes everyone pick a side, for better or for worse.
Short term outlook: Not likely. They all have a sense of humor, so they tend to forgive each others' shortcomings more easily. Although they are a chaotic and informal bloc, they maintain a watchful eye on NPO and its old gang.
Long term outlook: Low likelihood. The split is eventual. All things come to an end. Just ask the signatories of WUT. But would a split necessarily lead immediately to an outbreak of war? I doubt it.[/quote]

More likely, but with the lack of real tension I doubt you'll see a move like this for a while. C&G/SF have things nicely locked down and can prosper happily without upsetting things. Until you see some nice paranoia get born and propogated you're not going to really see much production here. How long did it take for The Continuum to split apart?

[quote name='zzzptm' timestamp='1279297695' post='2374586']
3. [b]Tech raid gone wrong.[/b] A raider hits the wrong AA and his alliance deals with public nukes instead of private channels.
Short term outlook: Moderately likely. Public mood is becoming less tolerant of aggressive actions. Raiding alliances have been warned, but raiders always make mistakes. One of them will result in an alliance going for it and activating its treaties to deal with the raiding AA. The question is this: would the allies of the raiding AA come to its aid if they felt the other alliance was overreacting? If yes, we could see a large war result. There's enough chaining, it could result in eventually growing into one of the above scenarios.
Long term outlook: Even more likely. It's a matter of when, not if.[/quote]

Eh, yes and no? It's likely, but alliances also tend to want to get this stuff resolved quickly. Situations like Athens-KoN! aren't the norm by any means. Unless there's some real bone-headed arrogance in progress you're not going to see a tech raid explode massively. That is, unless both sides want to make something out of it. In that case, prepare for fun.

[quote name='zzzptm' timestamp='1279297695' post='2374586']
4. [b]Rolling a neutral AA.[/b] There was once an alliance of lambs that took a wombat into their midst. The wombat was on the run from a pack of werewolves, and...
Short term outlook: Not likely. No neutral AA is #1 and large-scale acts of aggression could trigger other AAs into paperless support of the target. Therefore, the neutrals aren't targets.
Long term outlook: Not likely. Unless several major blocs decide to eradicate the Neutral Menace, it ain't gonna happen.
Really long term outlook: Somewhat likely. If we don't have regular wars on Planeta Roberto, people start looking for targets.[/quote]

Hasn't happened, doubt it will.

[quote name='zzzptm' timestamp='1279297695' post='2374586']
5. [b]Micro AA war getting out of control.[/b] The 57th Overlanders nearly did it, too!
Short term outlook: Not likely. I say not likely simply because such wars are unpredictable. They're one-in-a-million chances, but they can still happen. When they do, alliances will find the weirdest treaties getting activated.
Long term outlook: Still not likely. Probably because we might actually see fewer small AAs as time goes on, given the general reduction and consolidation of nations on Planeta Roberto.[/quote]

Small alliances lead to small wars. Entertaining drama but it'll look more like going to the movies than blowing up into a massive conflict. Again, this is assuming there aren't larger alliances with an interest in escalating things.

[Horatio Longworth]

In my opinion, #3 is the only possibility in the short term. I think we may have to wait a while though.

[Crymson]

Unless the NPO messes up---and Cortath won't be doing that---I don't think anything will happen in this game for a long, long time. Those currently in power want to be protected on all fronts; that's their prerogative, but it means that there will be no significant wars; and, in my opinion, it also makes the game utterly pointless.

[LittleRena]

[quote name='King Ernie' timestamp='1279424849' post='2376641']
a Micro AA war turning into something big is unlikely, unless of course, their protectorates get involved, in which case, things could escalate fast. Micro AA's also tend to be quick with their trigger fingers, because of their small size they tend to defend themselves with as much brutality as possible (in my experiences anyway). One nation is a lot more important when it's in a Micro AA then when it's in a full AA. It's also harder for Micro AA's to be respected among the other AA's out there.

just my two cents
[/quote]

Not something I do with my alliance, growing but still small, when we have been faced with taking military action, it's always with the consultation and go ahead with our protectors.

Though I don't doubt that most micro alliances will jump the gun, that might just be because they want to be involved in a war.

[R3nowned]

Lets get a micro alliance war started here! Who wants to be first! lol

I think that's the most likely scenario to be honest. Some of these new alliances have leaders that don't know what they're doing (thankfully, we've seem a few of them disband recently). Jumping the gun and hitting the DoW button seems rather likely in that context.

[mdnss69]

[quote]1. [b]Pacifican revenge.[/b] NPO gets its old gang back together and starts gunning for its enemies.
Short term outlook: Not likely. Numbers are not yet on Pacifica's side.
Long term outlook: Very likely. Once C&G/SF splits - or if a resurgent Pacifica makes itself useful in a war resulting from such a split - they have a strong chance at having a large enough bloc to re-establish themselves in an eminent position of world power. NPO would have to be careful to avoid being drawn out by a fake split designed to put it out in the open for another beat-down.[/quote]
Not likely at all, Cortath is a smart man and knows how to keep Pacifica's head down. Pacifica is still a shell of its former self and any beat down would simply be out of pure spite rather than any political significance.

[quote]2. [b]C&G/SF split.[/b] The Big One that makes everyone pick a side, for better or for worse.
Short term outlook: Not likely. They all have a sense of humor, so they tend to forgive each others' shortcomings more easily. Although they are a chaotic and informal bloc, they maintain a watchful eye on NPO and its old gang.
Long term outlook: Low likelihood. The split is eventual. All things come to an end. Just ask the signatories of WUT. But would a split necessarily lead immediately to an outbreak of war? I doubt it.[/quote]
SG is held together by a mutual dislike of the ex-Hegemony, and once they get eventually reaches the cortex's of their brains what exactly the term "ex" means, then there will be an argument somewhere, somewhen, sometime. It is inevitable that they will split, heh, just look at the bestest pals in tC or WUT. [i]Stercus accidit[/i]...

[quote]3. [b]Tech raid gone wrong.[/b] A raider hits the wrong AA and his alliance deals with public nukes instead of private channels.
Short term outlook: Moderately likely. Public mood is becoming less tolerant of aggressive actions. Raiding alliances have been warned, but raiders always make mistakes. One of them will result in an alliance going for it and activating its treaties to deal with the raiding AA. The question is this: would the allies of the raiding AA come to its aid if they felt the other alliance was overreacting? If yes, we could see a large war result. There's enough chaining, it could result in eventually growing into one of the above scenarios.
Long term outlook: Even more likely. It's a matter of when, not if.[/quote]
Likely when \m/, GOONS, GOD and Athens all have rather liberal tech raiding/ alliance raiding policies. I can honestly see one of these four starting something off one day.

[quote]4. [b]Rolling a neutral AA.[/b] There was once an alliance of lambs that took a wombat into their midst. The wombat was on the run from a pack of werewolves, and...
Short term outlook: Not likely. No neutral AA is #1 and large-scale acts of aggression could trigger other AAs into paperless support of the target. Therefore, the neutrals aren't targets.
Long term outlook: Not likely. Unless several major blocs decide to eradicate the Neutral Menace, it ain't gonna happen.
Really long term outlook: Somewhat likely. If we don't have regular wars on Planeta Roberto, people start looking for targets.[/quote]
Not likely at all, I mean, who is stupid enough to attack the infra lords in them neutral alliances?

[quote]5. [b]Micro AA war getting out of control.[/b] The 57th Overlanders nearly did it, too!
Short term outlook: Not likely. I say not likely simply because such wars are unpredictable. They're one-in-a-million chances, but they can still happen. When they do, alliances will find the weirdest treaties getting activated.
Long term outlook: Still not likely. Probably because we might actually see fewer small AAs as time goes on, given the general reduction and consolidation of nations on Planeta Roberto. [/quote]
Most likely scenario, and if it doesn't happen naturally someone will fuel the fire by luring somebody else into a row through the means of a micro-alliance. Micro alliance leaders are inexperienced and often quite trigger happy. Once two people get going at each other hell will break loose.

[Lennox]

I say SF and CnG get into it.

[The Reccesion]

I say GPA could take a majority of these alliances. !@#$ even if it was like a 3 on 1. I bet their warchest are pretty high since they really don't do much with them anyways.

[Cobalt]

inside information tells me it will look like this:

[img]http://www.eecs.wsu.edu/~cs423/423spring04/Team2/Gallery/scribbles.png[/img]

[zzzptm]

Cobalt's analysis is spot on.

I've got to say that the tech raid gone wrong is most likely, but only if one of the sides (raided or raider) thinks its coalition is ready to start something. Otherwise, it'll get negotiated... or result in a curbstomp when angry allies resentful of being drawn into war don't back up the alliance going too far.

[Mussolandia]

It is my humble opinion that it will suffice for the New Polar Order (and assorted allies) to break away from its dysfunctional relationship with the people known as Supercomplaints for scenario 1 to become possible. I just don't think they're that strong. At least not in the position the Initiative was after GWIII or that Continuum was after the noCB war. Some of the largest alliances that supported them in the last wars (MHA, Sparta) are just big balls of cyberlard that will dislodge themselves if the opportunity comes.

[quote name='WalkerNinja' timestamp='1279298238' post='2374595']
If the last war is any indicator, the next war will look like a pack of chimpanzees trying to hump a football.
[/quote]

This was actually funny. Fancy that.

Edited August 3, 2010 by Mussolandia

[The Reccesion]

If someone actually co-ordinates a well war strategy, I bet some alliances wont get blown out so fast and actually put up a real fight.

[Solaris]

[quote name='The Reccesion' timestamp='1280780310' post='2398729']
I say GPA could take a majority of these alliances. !@#$ even if it was like a 3 on 1. I bet their warchest are pretty high since they really don't do much with them anyways.
[/quote]Many of them, I heard, don't accumulate warchests, because they are anti-war.

[ojiras ajeridas]

As long as SG is afraid of a revenge of ex-Heg, the only war I see happening is another curbstomp by SG on certain alliances of that side. Should SG realize that that ex-Heg actually doesn't really exist (many treaties have been cancelled, so that that group isn't really close any more), I see also a C&G/SF split as something likelier as it may appear now. As of now, I also see SF in a stronger position than C&G in an eventual war...

[The Reccesion]

[quote name='Solaris' timestamp='1280828964' post='2399324']
Many of them, I heard, don't accumulate warchests, because they are anti-war.
[/quote]
I suppose, but I mean they seem to be fairly active and well their avg ns strength is around 43k, so I'm pretty sure the majority of them know what they are doing and keep a warchest, especially the ones who have read this.

[Ryan Greenberg]

Once SG realizes that the almighty ex-Hegemony is not a real group, a war will eventually happen.

Edited August 3, 2010 by Ryan Greenberg

[flak attack]

[quote name='The Reccesion' timestamp='1280861742' post='2399747']
I suppose, but I mean they seem to be fairly active and well their avg ns strength is around 43k, so I'm pretty sure the majority of them know what they are doing and keep a warchest, especially the ones who have read this.
[/quote]
Most don't. You should be able to see that by looking at their infra levels.

Edited August 3, 2010 by flak attack

[SiCkO]

would other neutral alliances join in if one of them was hit?

that's what im interested in

[Monster]

I don't think they would, but I think non-neutrals might intervene.

[The Reccesion]

[quote name='flak attack' timestamp='1280864716' post='2399811']
Most don't. You should be able to see that by looking at their infra levels.
[/quote]
Well, I'm not sure what the infra has to do with it, they have some extra infra but it's not like they spent it ALL on infra. Most of them have been saving cash for over a year or two, while most of us have been burning it in wars.

[The Reccesion]

[quote name='Antoine Roquentin' timestamp='1280865568' post='2399830']
I don't think they would, but I think non-neutrals might intervene.
[/quote]
I think they would have to. Some of the alliances signed the DoN Pacts.

[savethecheerleader]

[quote name='The Reccesion' timestamp='1280865964' post='2399838']
Well, I'm not sure what the infra has to do with it, they have some extra infra but it's not like they spent it ALL on infra. Most of them have been saving cash for over a year or two, while most of us have been burning it in wars.
[/quote]
Saving cash or not (probably not), a war against a major neutral alliance would be an utter slaughter. Most of their nation leaders are inactive, inexperienced, and I predict a huge number of them would simply fail to fight back, waiting for their nations to disappear.

[The Reccesion]

[quote name='savethecheerleader' timestamp='1280867094' post='2399864']
Saving cash or not (probably not), a war against a major neutral alliance would be an utter slaughter. Most of their nation leaders are inactive, inexperienced, and I predict a huge number of them would simply fail to fight back, waiting for their nations to disappear.
[/quote]
You think they would win against The Legion?

[savethecheerleader]

[quote name='The Reccesion' timestamp='1280867678' post='2399881']
You think they would win against The Legion?
[/quote]
Probably not. I'm sure they could muster enough active nations to wipe OO of the face of Bob, though.

[The Reccesion]

[quote name='savethecheerleader' timestamp='1280867797' post='2399885']
Probably not. I'm sure they could muster enough active nations to wipe OO of the face of Bob, though.
[/quote]
I think I would live to fight another day.