A Frank Opinion of the DH/NPO War

[Lusitan]

[quote name='HHAYD' timestamp='1305080520' post='2709918']
I wouldn't be surprised if a group of alliances weren't scared of curbstomping another side if they knew that they had the upper hand. However, would you still take on NPO if you knew that they had sufficient amount of firepower and allies' firepower to turn the war into a stalemate?
[/quote]

I am not exactly sure what you're getting at because you're mixing situations. Badly. Let's see. Would we take on NPO if we were required by treaty to do so? Of course, it's in our charter. Would we take on NPO if we weren't required to and it would turn into a stalemate? No, but that doesn't makes sense to start with. We pre-emptive stroke NPO because it was strategically advantageous, it would be idiotic to do so if we could not be assured of its advantage. The logic of pre-emptive strikes is to make it advantageous, if we can't have that advantage there's no point in doing it pre-emptively.

[Daimos]

[quote name='ChairmanHal' timestamp='1305063115' post='2709748']
It would depend entirely on timing and who hit who triggering defense treaties and preventing others from acting because of conflicting ones. Also any oA clauses and MADPs that got triggered.

But the worst case would have had DH entering into the fray and unable to target specific alliances in an effort to knock them out of the war early. The whole war bogs down quickly as the upper and middle tiers of many alliances get locked into nuke anarchy. From there a significant portion of the world's NS is locked into months of war and no side able to gain any sort of decisive victory and peace negotiations drag on. At some point the remaining major neutral alliances pile in on one side or the other and since this is the "worst case scenario" they pile in on DH and The Orders win a marginal victory with mostly white peace all around.

DH was never going to be decisively defeated. They could count on too much support from other alliances for that to happen.
[/quote]



Regardless of timing, if NPO entered the VE-NpO war DH would have the green light to lay the hammer down. The war would have ended as soon as VE and NpO came to terms. There would have been no DH-NPO theater.

DH over thought here. They were simply paranoid that NPO would somehow pull out a rabbit out of the hat and come out with a plan that would win us the war. The fact is, NPO does not have the political and military capacity to do so. DH placed much emphasis on the military aspect and not the political one which is more of a valuable commodity in this world.

The aggressive action of DH has force Planet Bob to look at MK in a differently light. It shined the brightest in the Armageddon war. It is no longer the case.

[Daimos]

[quote name='ChairmanHal' timestamp='1305063554' post='2709753']
If they did I would personally smack all of their leadership in the back of the head with my open hand...IRL.

No, the campaign was well executed by DH. The political capital that has been burned has been caused by the peace negotiation/terms for ending it, which at various points early on were laughably out of line with reality. As it stands now no one is probably going to remember that GOONS got money they didn't deserve, mostly because the amount wasn't particularly large by today's standards. What will get remembered is the "firing squad for NPO" or "war, part 2" that happened as a result of the "peace" treaty and that could be very problematic for DH in the future. We'll see.
[/quote]

A pre-emptive strike is mostly design to end the war quickly. Clearly that objective did not happen. Part of the reason this war has gone this long is because of the manner NPO was attacked.

A scenario where NPO and it’s allies were involve in the VE-NpO war. NPO would have been more likely to lay their arms down at the conclusion of that war.

[ChairmanHal]

[quote name='Daimos' timestamp='1305118030' post='2710087']
Regardless of timing, if NPO entered the VE-NpO war DH would have the green light to lay the hammer down. The war would have ended as soon as VE and NpO came to terms. There would have been no DH-NPO theater.[/quote]

Actually if it were played correctly on the NpO-NPO side, the fight would have devolved into one big hairball. Then it's up a question of who had the best, most coordinated logistics (ability to keep smaller nations in the fight through aid). It was in the best interest of The Orders to make it a long, grinding affair, since regardless of the propaganda, the longer it went, the better the terms got if they lost.

[quote]DH over thought here. They were simply paranoid that NPO would somehow pull out a rabbit out of the hat and come out with a plan that would win us the war. The fact is, NPO does not have the political and military capacity to do so. DH placed much emphasis on the military aspect and not the political one which is more of a valuable commodity in this world.[/quote]

Over thought? No. Clearly demonstrated that NPO isn't the monster it was made out to be? Absolutely. Also this: never underestimate MK's ability to marshal a crowd to a cause. Go look at the treaty web. The "ah shucks, we're not any sort of hegemony" routine is just that, a routine.

[quote]The aggressive action of DH has force Planet Bob to look at MK in a differently light. It shined the brightest in the Armageddon war. It is no longer the case.[/quote]

The Karma War was SF's, not MK's. If MK wants to take credit for it, you should be aware that people were plotting and planning long before Archon showed up for meetings. Where MK deserves much credit is its ability to exploit that victory and create new power blocs. To the extent that they have lost their "moral authority" (if such a thing could be had), they will be weaker for it. How much weaker depends upon when the crowds start to feel dirty and ignore the call to arms.

[quote name='Daimos' timestamp='1305118814' post='2710093']
A pre-emptive strike is mostly design to end the war quickly. Clearly that objective did not happen. Part of the reason this war has gone this long is because of the manner NPO was attacked.

A scenario where NPO and it’s allies were involve in the VE-NpO war. NPO would have been more likely to lay their arms down at the conclusion of that war.[/quote]

If it didn't happen it is because NPO and many of its allies stuffed much of their NS in bunkers away from the fight. In many ways this fight lasted as long as it did because of that, not because you were making DH exert itself beyond throwing billions at GOONS. The public perception was that DH showed up spoiling for a fight an you wouldn't give it.

Once again, the ideal scenario has the war rapidly becoming one big fight, not two separate fights, since two separate fights favored the enemies of The Orders. One big fight done the right way would lasted longer than the Polaris theater of operations did and would have favored an outcome where neither side could win a decisive victory.

Edited May 11, 2011 by ChairmanHal

[Daimos]

DH has stated the reason for preemption is to deny NPO and allies an ideal entry point to the VE-NpO war.

I counter, there is no such advantage. If NPO entered the war other than honoring a treaty, we would have been curbstomp not only by DH and it’s allies but the non-involve as well via militarily and/or publicly.

I would like to hear (from DH leadership preferably, no disrespect ChairmanHal) what kind of scenario that an "ideal entry" NPO would have entered that would have swung the war.

Edited May 11, 2011 by Daimos

[Monster]

Plenty of alliances could chained in ahead of NPO going in given that seemed the strategy at play. That would make it harder to concentrate damage on NPO who were the biggest target in the group of alliances. There was plenty military advantage in the end as we ended up having a free week at taking shots at everything in the upper tier we were able to get. Had the NPO been able to go in where it wanted, we would have seen more peace moding. In the lower tiers you always had an advantage.

ChairmanHal is on the ball in his last post entirely with one exception, especially with the Karma War part, not so much the "dirty" stuff, though. I've mentioned it before but it doesn't seem to stick. In addition, the peace moding is the reason the war has gone on this long, not the manner in which NPO was attacked.

Edited May 11, 2011 by Antoine Roquentin

[Daimos]

[quote name='Antoine Roquentin' timestamp='1305127577' post='2710135']
Plenty of alliances could chained in ahead of NPO going in given that seemed the strategy at play. That would make it harder to concentrate damage on NPO who were the biggest target in the group of alliances. There was plenty military advantage in the end as we ended up having a free week at taking shots at everything in the upper tier we were able to get. Had the NPO been able to go in where it wanted, we would have seen more peace moding. In the lower tiers you always had an advantage.

ChairmanHal is on the ball in his last post entirely with one exception, especially with the Karma War part, not so much the "dirty" stuff, though. I've mentioned it before but it doesn't seem to stick. In addition, the peace moding is the reason the war has gone on this long, not the manner in which NPO was attacked.
[/quote]

DH would still have the luxury to wait out on NPO to commit. VE’s coalition had the military might to withstand any other alliance that would have entered.

It is absurd that your main reason in prolonging the war is because NPO has not suffered enough when the main objective should have been to assist your treaty partners in the VE-NpO war. That is if you insist that this war is the result of that one.

[Monster]

[quote name='Daimos' timestamp='1305129214' post='2710144']
DH would still have the luxury to wait out on NPO to commit. VE’s coalition had the military might to withstand any other alliance that would have entered.

It is absurd that your main reason in prolonging the war is because NPO has not suffered enough when the main objective should have been to assist your treaty partners in the VE-NpO war. That is if you insist that this war is the result of that one.
[/quote]

It was never a 3:1 odds thing even if the numbers were in favor of VE. NPO coming in with the ability to just score victories in the middle-lower tier areas wouldn't have been very good for us.


Considering NPO and co. utilized the upper tier PM strategy to avoid taking damage there while swarming the lower tiers of opposition alliances, there is no reason for us to let you have your free shots and get away with a preseved upper tier, especially when taking into account NPO's conduct before we declared.

[KainIIIC]

[quote name='Antoine Roquentin' timestamp='1305129581' post='2710147']
It was never a 3:1 odds thing even if the numbers were in favor of VE. NPO coming in with the ability to just score victories in the middle-lower tier areas wouldn't have been very good for us.


Considering NPO and co. utilized the upper tier PM strategy to avoid taking damage there while swarming the lower tiers of opposition alliances, there is no reason for us to let you have your free shots and get away with a preseved upper tier, [b]especially when taking into account NPO's conduct before we declared.[/b]
[/quote]

rofl, you had me there til that last clunker of a statement, still must be afraid of the boogeyman under the bed at night.

[Daimos]

[quote name='Antoine Roquentin' timestamp='1305129581' post='2710147']
It was never a 3:1 odds thing even if the numbers were in favor of VE. NPO coming in with the ability to just score victories in the middle-lower tier areas wouldn't have been very good for us.


Considering NPO and co. utilized the upper tier PM strategy to avoid taking damage there while swarming the lower tiers of opposition alliances, there is no reason for us to let you have your free shots and get away with a preseved upper tier, especially when taking into account NPO's conduct before we declared.
[/quote]

Whatever the odds were, the fact is, if NPO commits DH counters, thus increasing your odds and neutralizing ours.

Our general population’s conduct might have been threatening to you but do you really think NPO leadership with it’s current military and political state of affairs would foolishly attack DH?

Your strategist seems to miss all the mark on this war. The preemption, prolonging the war and the terms. If you have simply did what was expected of you, you would have come out roses to the public eye.

Edited May 11, 2011 by Daimos

[Monster]

[quote name='Daimos' timestamp='1305134896' post='2710168']
Whatever the odds were, the fact is, if NPO commits DH counters, thus increasing your odds and neutralizing ours.

Our general population’s conduct might have been threatening to you but do you really think NPO leadership with it’s current military and political state of affairs would foolishly attack DH?

Your strategist seems to miss all the mark on this war. If you have simply gone with the flow of events, you would have come out roses to the public eye.
[/quote]

They don't if we can't target NPO effectively. Sometimes you have to be willing to take PR risks for the military victory.

NPO wouldn't attack DH head on simply because that wouldn't make sense and it's not something we've claimed ever. It was threatening, rather, to the coalition.


I disagree with that assessment anyway. The alliances that get the most flak over the war are ones people disliked before it. I've said it before, I don't believe the actual military action to have really shaped the opinions. PR isn't everything and military strategy aren't the same thing anyway.

[Daimos]

[quote name='Antoine Roquentin' timestamp='1305135442' post='2710171']
They don't if we can't target NPO effectively. Sometimes you have to be willing to take PR risks for the military victory.

NPO wouldn't attack DH head on simply because that wouldn't make sense and it's not something we've claimed ever. It was threatening, rather, to the coalition.


I disagree with that assessment anyway. The alliances that get the most flak over the war are ones people disliked before it. I've said it before, I don't believe the actual military action to have really shaped the opinions. PR isn't everything and military strategy aren't the same thing anyway.
[/quote]

It is not worth risking PR if a counter attack would have achieved the same result.

If we agree that attacking DH would be foolish than how are we a threat to a coalition with the combine forces of DH and VE and it’s allies?

Even if you discount the PR aspect of your action, the military aspect of it is flawed. VE and its allies might still be fighting at your side if you only waited for NPO to commit on their war. It would have been a truly curbstomp and would have shortened the war which was the intention of your preemption.

[Monster]

It wouldn't have. We likely would have to have used offensive slots on alliances coming in before NPO like maybe Legion for example mostly due to the fact that Polar still had the option of deploying them against VE, who'd have no allies except Umb/GOONS left to go in because they had successfully played NV by not countering VE initially, limiting the damage we could do to NPO. There are various scenarios I can bring up where it becomes problematic to counter NPO.

NPO would have also had the opportunity to peace mode its upper tier to a greater extent in preparation. The direct attack on NPO maximized the level of damage we could do to NPO. The dividends proved to be greater than anticipated with NPO letting us have a week to completely decimate the upper tier they hadn't been able to get peace mode with no counters. Then Legion sat in PM for almost 2 months and when they came out, they were easy pickings.

Attacking DH before DH goes in would be dumb. As this war has shown however NPO and its allies have an advantage in the lower to middle tiers, so they could have handled some alliances without really getting hit hard by DH as we would be limited in targeted selection or as I said be tied up with NPO allies.

How would it have been a curbstomp really? VE and the rest of our coalition was already tied up. What was VE going to do to NPO and allies lower tiers if they were still fighting NpO? Who else was going to come in against NPO? There was really a very limited group of alliances that were free to do it.

Edited May 11, 2011 by Antoine Roquentin

[youwish959]

ITT Roquentin is mad NPO/co didn't take the tastiest bait that PB had to throw at them.

[Daimos]

[quote name='Antoine Roquentin' timestamp='1305138438' post='2710188']
It wouldn't have. We likely would have to have used offensive slots on alliances coming in before NPO like maybe Legion for example mostly due to the fact that Polar still had the option of deploying them against VE, who'd have no allies except Umb/GOONS left to go in because they had successfully played NV by not countering VE initially, limiting the damage we could do to NPO. There are various scenarios I can bring up where it becomes problematic to counter NPO.

NPO would have also had the opportunity to peace mode its upper tier to a greater extent in preparation. The direct attack on NPO maximized the level of damage we could do to NPO. The dividends proved to be greater than anticipated with NPO letting us have a week to completely decimate the upper tier they hadn't been able to get peace mode with no counters. Then Legion sat in PM for almost 2 months and when they came out, they were easy pickings.

Attacking DH before DH goes in would be dumb. As this war has shown however NPO and its allies have an advantage in the lower to middle tiers, so they could have handled some alliances without really getting hit hard by DH as we would be limited in targeted selection or as I said be tied up with NPO allies.

How would it have been a curbstomp really? VE and the rest of our coalition was already tied up. What was VE going to do to NPO and allies lower tiers if they were still fighting NpO? Who else was going to come in against NPO? There was really a very limited group of alliances that were free to do it.
[/quote]

Your coalition has treaties and resources outside of DH to deal with Legion and NPO. MK for example could have asked TOP to assist with Legion and NPO’s upper tier. TOP could have activated their treaty with IRON to deal with the mid and lower tier. Regardless of the scenario of the way we would have come in, your coalition had more than enough resources and options to deal with it and launch an effective counter attack.

[Monster]

TOP on its own couldn't take care of Legion and all of the alliances they actually ended up fighting as well. It's not just Legion and NPO and that was far from the full gamut of NPO allies that came in. It'd have been a logistical mess if they were willing to chain everything in. By attacking NPO, we drew the heat on ourselves and away from other potential theaters those alliances might have gone to. Given how fast NPO was peace moding right before we declared, I think the amount of damage we would have done would have been severely limited otherwise.

You imply IRON coming as a given. Considering DR didn't want to go in on any front, it'd have been surprising to me. In addition, keep in mind, C&G wasn't fully free until alliances on the Polar side started dropping out.

If we did have DR committed along with the swing alliances like NV that went to Polar's side, then you might have a point, but we did not have an excess of NS to deploy.

Edited May 11, 2011 by Antoine Roquentin

[Sweeeeet Ronny D]

Sounds like our biggest crime was overestimating the fighting ability of NPO and Co.

Sorry next war we will consider you to be the incompetent fighting force you proved yourselves to be.

I will say I didnt expect NPO to be as top heavy as they are, 1 million NS lost over what 18 nations in the last 5-6 days?

[Williambonney]

[quote name='Sweeeeet Ronny D' timestamp='1305143534' post='2710213']
Sounds like our biggest crime was overestimating the fighting ability of NPO and Co.

Sorry next war we will consider you to be the incompetent fighting force you proved yourselves to be.

I will say I didnt expect NPO to be as top heavy as they are, 1 million NS lost over what 18 nations in the last 5-6 days?
[/quote]


[img]http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_KI9gcT8Agi4/TIWlAU0V5rI/AAAAAAAAAXk/hY2qE3Pm04M/s1600/sense+fail.jpg[/img]



The force is strong with this one.

[Max Power]

I agree that a TOP/IRON entry wouldn't have happened.

C&G wasn't exactly exhausted by MCXA though.

[Monster]

It would have still been difficult to maneuveur them onto a different front in a short amount of time. MCXA throwing in the towel facilitated an easy movement and there was the potential for MCXA to call in more alliances on their front.

Hitting NPO straight out had the biggest military payoff available, however and militarily it paid great dividends.

Edited May 12, 2011 by Antoine Roquentin

[Williambonney]

[quote name='Antoine Roquentin' timestamp='1305164180' post='2710379']
It would have still been difficult to maneuveur them onto a different front in a short amount of time. MCXA throwing in the towel facilitated an easy movement and there was the potential for MCXA to call in more alliances on their front.

Hitting NPO straight out had the biggest military payoff available, however and militarily it paid great dividends.
[/quote]
Indeed it does, watching our upper tier smash yours while you're being used as meat shields for mk is just so

Edited May 12, 2011 by William Bonney

[Monster]

I thought we used meatshields to avoid taking damage not that we were the meatshields. I'm so confused now.

[Epiphanus]

[quote name='William Bonney' timestamp='1305168999' post='2710426']
Indeed it does, watching our upper tier smash yours while you're being used as meat shields for mk is just so
[/quote]
Are you watching the same war I am?


nb4 "exactly, MK is watching, hurr hurr"

Edited May 12, 2011 by Epiphanus

[Azaghul]

[quote name='William Bonney' timestamp='1305168999' post='2710426']
Indeed it does, watching our upper tier smash yours while you're being used as meat shields for mk is just so
[/quote]
I think you have it mixed up on who is smashing who. Umbrella has lost about 250,000 NS since May 6th. You've lost over a million NS.

[Ninja Colt]

[quote name='William Bonney' timestamp='1305168999' post='2710426']
Indeed it does, watching our upper tier smash yours while you're being used as meat shields for mk is just so
[/quote]

oh wait what happened to that 1 million ns you just had a few days ago