NPO's Reps - An attempted unbiased View

[Rajistani]

tl;dr it will take NPO 1.8 years to pay reps if using 100% of slots.

Sorry need to start a new thread, because there is no doubt that AP thread is about to be locked in my mind.

Anyways I am attempting to make this as unbiased as possible.

Reps asked for: 300,000 tech and 7,000,000 CN money (to be paid in tech or money).

I will be covering the money first, and I will be assuming NPO can hit the 90% war mode mode within 1 day.

Currently: 63 nations above 5,000 infra in peace mode for the new pacific order.

We will give 33% of those nations a large war chest. At least a 500,000,000 dollar war chest, which is enough to last the 14 days of war doing nothing, and send out 15 million every 10 days indefinitely.

I was in the noCB war, defensively, with my previous, quite large, nation. This war was all out everything, i was in a 3 versus 1, a similar situation we can expect all of these "banks" to be in. I spent approximately 15 million everyday. (Why so much? when in a 3 v 1 you are usually at a tech disadvantage and are losing your planes and whatnot, and assuming these guys have massive warchests, they will continue to rebuy so they can do attacks). That includes losses from nukes, etc. The nations in peace mode have never been in war, according to NPO.

In that sense, the nations in peace mode will lose 15 million * 14 days = 210 million.

This leaves 21 nations who were in peace mode that can effectively be banks.

I will double this number to account for the nations that are still in war with exceptionally large warchests. They have been in war for 58 days, plus 14, which means I am giving 21 NPO nations warchests at the start of the war with over 1.73 billion war chests. That is 1.73 billion because of the war costs times 63 plus 65 million, the amount necessary to get back to a "banking level."

That leaves 42 NPO nations with the ability to send out 15 million every 10 days.

7000000000 dollars / 3000000 dollars per slot = 2334 slots (rounded up because round down would mean it wasn't fully paid).

( 2334 slots / (42 nations * 3 slots each) ) * 10 days per slot cycle = 18.518 = 19 cycles = 190 days = 6.333 monthes for the money payments.

Note: its 3 slots to allow 2-3 slots per nation for removing people from bill-lock and rebuilding.

Tech Payments

Tech losses:

80 from nukes.

16 from ground.

9.6 from CMs.

Per day it will be (80 nukes + (16 * 6 ground attacks) + (9.6 * 6 CMs)) = 233.6 tech

233.6 * 14 days = 3270.4 tech per nation.

Tech can only be paid by nations over 1,000 tech level

3270.4 + 1000 = Minimum current tech level needed by nations today in order to pay reps (if terms were accepted today instead of rejected)

NPO has 11 nations above that mark. NINE of which fall into the peace mode calculation above.

Assuming all 9 of these nations will be able to send out 3 mill + 50t for every slot, and Karma has nations that will accept this, rather than the 300k tech and money being paid separately we have:

Kingdom of Dark

11,109.68 - 4270 = 6839 tech

Citizen

6,915.83 - 4270 = 2645

Shada

6,620.93 - 4270 = 2350

SetiCrunchers

5,752.52 - 4270 = 1482

Itally

5,716.60 - 4270 = 1446

YTMND

5,341.04 - 4270 = 1071

Aryan Alliance

5,318.33 - 4270 = 1048

MrsBehney Nation

4,920.45 - 4270 = 650

Nova Roma

4,852.56 - 4270 = 582

The Borat Empire

4,827.87 - 4270 = 557

Klondike

4,298.45 - 4270 = 28

If we add all this together; we get 11 859 tech.

That is 288 141 short of Karma's reps if NPO sent ALL their tech. Furthermore it would take Kingdom of dark 27.4 (28) cycles to pay all his tech if he sent 250 every 10 days. That is 9.3333 monthes.

So hypothetically, these nations, and others that are just under the 1,000 mark, would have to buy technology, and then send it off. It would take 50 days for a cycle. (1,000 tech nation buys 100 tech at 3mill/50/50 - 30 days - then sends 50/50 to Karma - 20 days).

Now you may be saying, why doesn't that nation selling just have the tech sent to Karma directly? It would cut alot of days off. Karmas terms dictate that the tech must be sent by nations over 1,000 technology.

This remaining 288,141 tech would have to be paid 100 tech at a time in 50 days cycles. Assuming these nations have enough money to buy tech, 3 are ZIed on this list).

At that rate it would take 290 aid slots (288141tech / 100 tech). Assuming each nation can carry 5 forever, those 290 aid slots can be split by the 11 above nations, once they reach their 1,000 tech mark. It would take them 5.272727 50 day cycles. So 300 days to have it fully paid, but some will only go for 50 days.

This is in addition to the 9.333 months for the first 11.8k tech and in addition to the 6.333 monthes of cash (since in 50 day cycles, a nation cannot send 3mill +50tech every 10 days).

This brings us to a grand total of 1.8 years of this 700 man alliance paying reps (adjusted to account that 6 mill + 100 tech can be sent every 50 day cycle).

Note: That this does not account for nations rebuilding past the 1,000 tech level mark and then paying towards the reps. but it does not count for nations that will leave NPO rather than spending a year and a half paying reps, and it assumes that these nations will be provided slots by karma without "all slots in use" and that these nations will not be sending money to their own alliance in the TECH scenario.

Also it counts that these nations will have 100% efficiency, and that NPO will get into war mode in 14 days, which is most likely not the case.

Note: I apologize for any mistakes, I am sleepy.

Edited June 13, 2009 by Rajistani

[enderland]

Read the clarified terms.

[mhawk]

Don't forget GW1..

Thats all that matters right.

[AnCapistan]

Nice math

I just want a tl;dr

[Londo Mollari]

2) Reparations of up to 300,000 tech and $7,000,000,000 will be assessed upon the New Pacific Order. This shall be determined dependent on their ability to pay after the aforementioned period of war, in the judgement of the Karma signatories of this document. All reparations of the 300,000 technology must be paid by nations with greater than or equal to 1000.00 technology upon the signing of these terms. The $7,000,000,000 is freely convertable to technology at a rate of 100 technology per 3 million. In addition, technology that is converted from money may be sent by any nation.

181 nations eligible to send the reps. 3 slots per cycle x 3 cycles per month x 181 nations x 50 tech per slot = 81450 tech per month

Bear in mind that in the first month, a TON of ZIed nations with eco wonders could be rebuilt into banks. A lot more just on their own remaining warchest funds. Also protip: they can always turtle.

[magicninja]

Londo said all 181 nations currently over 100k tech can send reps. That changes your numbers quite a bit and I think NPO could probably pull it off in about 10 months. If they let them organize everyone in the alliance it would opnly take maybe 4-5 months. The limiting of the amount of nations to send reps is just Karma's way of being able to hold NPO down for longer and leaving them very little to rebuild with. I think it's stupid because by the end of the attacks and reps there really wouldn't be a need to hold NPO down. They probably be near 3 mil total strength if they were lucky with a measly avg NS. Couple that in with not having many freinds left that are actually a decent alliance (save maybe IRON) and all you have is an alliance in pretty bad shape. Which is why NPO rejected the terms. Karma almost has it. They just went a little bit too far.

[Rajistani]

All reparations of the 300,000 technology must be paid by nations with greater than or equal to 1000.00 technology upon the signing of these terms.

Apologies, just got linked to this: http://forums.cybernations.net/index.php?s...p;#entry1609825

[Londo Mollari]

Londo said all 181 nations currently over 100k tech can send reps. That changes your numbers quite a bit and I think NPO could probably pull it off in about 10 months. If they let them organize everyone in the alliance it would opnly take maybe 4-5 months. The limiting of the amount of nations to send reps is just Karma's way of being able to hold NPO down for longer and leaving them very little to rebuild with. I think it's stupid because by the end of the attacks and reps there really wouldn't be a need to hold NPO down. They probably be near 3 mil total strength if they were lucky with a measly avg NS. Couple that in with not having many freinds left that are actually a decent alliance (save maybe IRON) and all you have is an alliance in pretty bad shape. Which is why NPO rejected the terms. Karma almost has it. They just went a little bit too far.

Too far is debatable. I know I was willing to keep talking and try to get something that was palatable to everyone. But many felt we had made enough concessions. Perhaps they were right. The majority rules, in any case. And the NPO publicity stunt isn't real helpful for their cause.

[mhawk]

So londo, why not just accept the 8 billion 300k tech? Or drop the 90% rule and go for the reps + 2week war instead of having indefinite war as part of the terms?

[magicninja]

Too far is debatable. I know I was willing to keep talking and try to get something that was palatable to everyone. But many felt we had made enough concessions. Perhaps they were right. The majority rules, in any case. And the NPO publicity stunt isn't real helpful for their cause.

That's how NPO used to talk Londo.

Too far is debateable as we can clearly see from that thread. If the punishment really isn't about the reps and it's only about warring the nations that are in peacemode I think you should really consider at the very least widening the margin of NPO nations that can pay the reps. Don;t even use tech as the marker just say the top 250 nations in NS rank. Those extra 70 nations would probably be a deal maker. You guys will get what you want in the end. You can give a tiny bit of rope.

[Letum]

You people don't seem to realise we'd lose 150,000 tech with 2 weeks of war.

[Londo Mollari]

So londo, why not just accept the 8 billion 300k tech? Or drop the 90% rule and go for the reps + 2week war instead of having indefinite war as part of the terms?

I don't have the authority to do that at this time, as most of karma was vehemently against offering more concessions or changes. Believe it or not mhawk, like people were saying in the other thread, I'm the nice guy here. How's that for a revenge crazed maniac. :-p And I won't break with my comrades, just as they have not broken with me.

That's how NPO used to talk Londo.

Too far is debateable as we can clearly see from that thread. If the punishment really isn't about the reps and it's only about warring the nations that are in peacemode I think you should really consider at the very least widening the margin of NPO nations that can pay the reps. Don;t even use tech as the marker just say the top 250 nations in NS rank. Those extra 70 nations would probably be a deal maker. You guys will get what you want in the end. You can give a tiny bit of rope.

Ideas like this were suggested as terms finalizing deals. However I have no power to implement them by myself. One of 18 alliances, don't forget.

[mhawk]

I don't have the authority to do that at this time, as most of karma was vehemently against offering more concessions or changes. Believe it or not mhawk, like people were saying in the other thread, I'm the nice guy here. How's that for a revenge crazed maniac. :-p And I won't break with my comrades, just as they have not broken with me.

Perhaps not such heavy judgement should be leveled on us and our attempts to work out peace with alliances at war with NPO? However that same courtesy certainly was never considered. I'll be the bigger man and leave you to your work and see how you feel about this in the end. I've made my choice to stick with "a monster" to honor our treaties and get out. I guess you've made the same choice if you really do not fully support the terms as listed.

[Roadie]

The problem with the 18 alliances thingy is that now nobody is responsible. There's 18 fingers pointing 18 different directions. I know that's not of you're doing, but eventually someone or a select few are going to get the public rep of being responsible.

[magicninja]

I don't have the authority to do that at this time, as most of karma was vehemently against offering more concessions or changes. Believe it or not mhawk, like people were saying in the other thread, I'm the nice guy here. How's that for a revenge crazed maniac. :-p And I won't break with my comrades, just as they have not broken with me.

Ideas like this were suggested as terms finalizing deals. However I have no power to implement them by myself. One of 18 alliances, don't forget.

I understand Londo but someone needs to be the voice of reason there. I hope it's you and you are fighting for the doing the right thing. I've grew to like Athens a lot since the war with TPF. I know you aren't unreasonable. You just need to know when to say when to those who are unreasonable. The terms you have now are cutting it pretty close to being extremely difficult for NPO to handle if your estimates of warchest sizes and potential damage are wrong. You need to give a little leeway on those nation restrictions and then fight hard to make it as much of an economic burden as you can by the end without making it too overbearing. Be smart about this and don;t let those other guys give you any !@#$ for at least realizing the truth.

[Londo Mollari]

The problem with the 18 alliances thingy is that now nobody is responsible. There's 18 fingers pointing 18 different directions. I know that's not of you're doing, but eventually someone or a select few are going to get the public rep of being responsible.

We will all be responsible if we sign the terms. I am fine with that. We started this war, and we will finish it. Yes the terms will be harsh. But they will be survivable, and NPO will pull through them. I have pushed for that much.

I'll note something that no one seems to have realized yet. The 300k figure is a maximum, a highball. So is the money. The plan internally within karma was to lower them depending on how much tech damage was done. They are a highball because we have no way of predicting exactly how much damage weeks of war will do.

[Rajistani]

We will all be responsible if we sign the terms. I am fine with that. We started this war, and we will finish it. Yes the terms will be harsh. But they will be survivable, and NPO will pull through them. I have pushed for that much.

I'll note something that no one seems to have realized yet. The 300k figure is a maximum, a highball. So is the money. The plan internally within karma was to lower them depending on how much tech damage was done. They are a highball because we have no way of predicting exactly how much damage weeks of war will do.

I know its not on you, but shouldn't of Karma as a whole have said "Reps to not exceed 300k tech and 7 billion" then?

[Londo Mollari]

I know its not on you, but shouldn't of Karma as a whole have said "Reps to not exceed 300k tech and 7 billion" then?

That is in fact what the terms say. "Up to".

[magicninja]

We will all be responsible if we sign the terms. I am fine with that. We started this war, and we will finish it. Yes the terms will be harsh. But they will be survivable, and NPO will pull through them. I have pushed for that much.

I'll note something that no one seems to have realized yet. The 300k figure is a maximum, a highball. So is the money. The plan internally within karma was to lower them depending on how much tech damage was done. They are a highball because we have no way of predicting exactly how much damage weeks of war will do.

You have no way of predicting how long this might drag out. It could be months. Another question once 90% is reached does it have to stay at that amount? ie they reach 90% give you evidence so the two week counter starts clicking after the first wave NPO loses nations and/or more escape back into peace mode and the percentage goes to 78%, Does the whole thing start back up again? or is that allowed?

There are too many variables Londo. When you are dealing with that you need to play it as safe as you can to allow them to be sure they can do it. I thin they probably could pull it off under a year by your current terms but it is defendant on my relatively consetive estimate of the damge you'd inflict.

[Tojamn]

the problem isnt the 7 bil or the 300k tech.. heck, make it an even 9 bil and 400k tech.. thats not the issue..

the issue is

1) trying too get 90% out of pm

2) letting the 90% to get beat down for 14 days straight.

how many nations do think we will have over 1k tech? too be able too pay those reps? not many..

so lets use my nation as an example. and hypothetical situation.

I have 1,803.70 tech and 6,821.00 infra. now if you look at my wonders i dont have any war wonders. so i get no bonuses or nukes. Now lets say

1) i receive orders too exit PM and i do because i follow my orders.

2) I wait for the 14 day mandatory war counter too start, which takes 1 month too happen. by then im at 0 infra and under 1k tech so

3) I still have too go thru the 14 days of war per requirment. which sends me too still 0 infra and 0 tech or close too it.

Which means i am unable too pay the 300k tech and 7 bil cash reps when and if we get to the 90% into war mode ratio..

and remember the purpose of this war was too teach NPO a lesson and too dammage us severly, NPO was at 24 mil alliance str and had 924 members. we are now at just over 6 mill alliance str and only have a little over 700 members..

understand yet?

[Denial]

You people don't seem to realise we'd lose 150,000 tech with 2 weeks of war.

Only in the very first two weeks of war, when Pacifica's total technology was dispersed amongst over 900 nations did your alliance lose technology that quickly. Even if every single nation currently in peace mode comes out and fights, it is highly unlikely, at this stage of the conflict, 150,000 technology will be destroyed in just two weeks. All public calculations from Pacificans declaring how dramatic their losses would be from two weeks of fighting have each made the assumption that every single ground, air and missile attack will be successful. Anyone that has had the least bit of experience with the CN battle system would realise that even when you're fighting against the odds, there are plenty of times where you successfully defend yourself and greatly limit damage.

[Francesca]

And this is the world I fought for. These terms.... are just totally unreasonable.

Edited June 13, 2009 by Francesca

[mhawk]

And this is the world I fought for.

It's like the matrix ?

Edited June 13, 2009 by mhawk

[Londo Mollari]

the problem isnt the 7 bil or the 300k tech.. heck, make it an even 9 bil and 400k tech.. thats not the issue..

the issue is

1) trying too get 90% out of pm

2) letting the 90% to get beat down for 14 days straight.

how many nations do think we will have over 1k tech? too be able too pay those reps? not many..

so lets use my nation as an example. and hypothetical situation.

I have 1,803.70 tech and 6,821.00 infra. now if you look at my wonders i dont have any war wonders. so i get no bonuses or nukes. Now lets say

1) i receive orders too exit PM and i do because i follow my orders.

2) I wait for the 14 day mandatory war counter too start, which takes 1 month too happen. by then im at 0 infra and under 1k tech so

3) I still have too go thru the 14 days of war per requirment. which sends me too still 0 infra and 0 tech or close too it.

Which means i am unable too pay the 300k tech and 7 bil cash reps when and if we get to the 90% into war mode ratio..

and remember the purpose of this war was too teach NPO a lesson and too dammage us severly, NPO was at 24 mil alliance str and had 924 members. we are now at just over 6 mill alliance str and only have a little over 700 members..

understand yet?

Meh I don't really want to blow your nation up.

[Alterego]

I thought the reps had passed the $14 billion and 500k tech mark.