At Long Last, the End of the Karma War

[bigwoody]

I've seen otherwise.

How do you mean?

[Jackalope Despot]

Congrats on peace, now on to a better (or at least more interesting) tomorrow!

[potato]

This is a really, really good question.

Vol Navy has pretty much given the answer. The argument put forth for starting the war was that if we didn't, things were only going to get worse; more people would defect to the other side.

I did not buy it then, and I still don't think it was right. If Continuum had collapsed on its own (which seems likely in retrospect), a whole lot of people would have been too happy about the end of Q to bother chasing down very large alliances on trumped-up CBs to right past wrongs.

If Continuum hadn't collapsed, if it had shifted into becoming basically a purely defensive treaty (as it was pretty much designed to be in the start), people still would not have been looking to create CBs on NPO, TPF, IRON and the others in order to right past wrongs, with guns like TOP and MHA still around to defend them.

Really? Taking a beating now was the only way out? What about a diplomatic solution? One of the reasons so many defected your side is that your side started the war. Once everything was set in motion, everyone with a basic understanding of politics could have told you that the side going on the offensive was going to lose a large chunk of its on the fence supporters.

[Aurion]

This is a really, really good question.

Vol Navy has pretty much given the answer. The argument put forth for starting the war was that if we didn't, things were only going to get worse; more people would defect to the other side.

I did not buy it then, and I still don't think it was right. If Continuum had collapsed on its own (which seems likely in retrospect), a whole lot of people would have been too happy about the end of Q to bother chasing down very large alliances on trumped-up CBs to right past wrongs.

If Continuum hadn't collapsed, if it had shifted into becoming basically a purely defensive treaty (as it was pretty much designed to be in the start), people still would not have been looking to create CBs on NPO, TPF, IRON and the others in order to right past wrongs, with guns like TOP and MHA still around to defend them.

I do believe that's what they call a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Essenia]

Ordo Verde was a poor choice for starting the war IMO. One of very few alliances (possibly the only one?) that draws in SuperFriends AND C&G. In a purely practical sense, you should have picked someone like CRAP that would have drawn in a fair amount of people but not enough to make it a fair fight. SuperFriends would have been crushed eventually and then in a few months you could have dealt with Frostbite or Citadel.

I doubt CnG would have stood by as SF was being crushed; the implications of that in the future would be obvious. As for Citadel, Umbrella and Gromlins would have gotten in regardless as we are both MDPed to Fark.

[deth2munkies]

This is a really, really good question.

Vol Navy has pretty much given the answer. The argument put forth for starting the war was that if we didn't, things were only going to get worse; more people would defect to the other side.

I did not buy it then, and I still don't think it was right. If Continuum had collapsed on its own (which seems likely in retrospect), a whole lot of people would have been too happy about the end of Q to bother chasing down very large alliances on trumped-up CBs to right past wrongs.

If Continuum hadn't collapsed, if it had shifted into becoming basically a purely defensive treaty (as it was pretty much designed to be in the start), people still would not have been looking to create CBs on NPO, TPF, IRON and the others in order to right past wrongs, with guns like TOP and MHA still around to defend them.

Again, your side displays a profound lack of understanding both political and public relations.

The first huge mistake was the NPO enacting a press blackout and letting Vox have a field day without a solid counterpoint.

The second huge mistake was declaring war during peace negotiations in which both allies and potential enemies were involved. That alienated those that would have supported your side had you declared any war legitimately.

The third mistake was not taking measures to create a public image nor make concessions (until war was inevitable) that would increase your standing with the public as a whole. If large amounts of people like you, odds are more alliances would be willing to negotiate with you and perhaps even form a relationship or treaty with you. Instead, the NPO surrounded itself with its close "friends" whose main goal was to hide under the umbrella of Pacifican might and completely ignored or alienated everyone else. Had they started working on their image when peace terms from the last war expired, perhaps we would have experienced a different chain of events. Instead they went into blackout and isolation, only emerging just a handful of weeks before the Karma war attempting to hastily improve their image by releasing FAN and GATO and opening more constructive dialogue with MK and other historically opposing alliances.

[Haflinger]

Really? Taking a beating now was the only way out? What about a diplomatic solution? One of the reasons so many defected your side is that your side started the war. Once everything was set in motion, everyone with a basic understanding of politics could have told you that the side going on the offensive was going to lose a large chunk of its on the fence supporters.

You are singing the song I was singing for like a week or so before the war.

[Londo Mollari]

This is a really, really good question.

Vol Navy has pretty much given the answer. The argument put forth for starting the war was that if we didn't, things were only going to get worse; more people would defect to the other side.

I did not buy it then, and I still don't think it was right. If Continuum had collapsed on its own (which seems likely in retrospect), a whole lot of people would have been too happy about the end of Q to bother chasing down very large alliances on trumped-up CBs to right past wrongs.

If Continuum hadn't collapsed, if it had shifted into becoming basically a purely defensive treaty (as it was pretty much designed to be in the start), people still would not have been looking to create CBs on NPO, TPF, IRON and the others in order to right past wrongs, with guns like TOP and MHA still around to defend them.

You are completely correct from where I stand. Neither I, nor my allies to my knowledge, had any sort of plan to orchestrate a grand offensive war. We expected war to come every day, yes - but a war of aggression designed to ensnare and destroy us. That was what we sometimes discussed, and that was all. An offensive war against Hegemony would never have gained the support of the Citadel alliances, for instance, who were key elements in securing victory in the Karma War. The world would most likely have remained peacefully bipolar for quite some time (with Pacifican/Hegemony influence gradually waning). My best guess for why the war was fought, at the time it was, in the way it was, and by the alliances that it was, was that it was a last ditch effort to retain and recapture full Pacifican dominance of the world. It didn't work, but despite what happened, the war could have gone either way. As Steelrat alluded to #collective was incredibly chaotic and there were times where it looked like we were going to lose. Ironically, NPO's move against OV (especially as it happened during talks) was what sealed the outcome of the war, because it absolutely galvanized everyone in #collective to work together as one. Had NPO handled its execution of the war differently in the very beginning stages, or had OUT alliances hit OV instead, it is quite possible the war would have had a very different outcome.

Edited August 6, 2009 by Londo Mollari

[Rafael Nadal]

You are completely correct from where I stand. Neither I, nor my allies to my knowledge, had any sort of plan to orchestrate a grand offensive war. We expected war to come every day, yes - but a war of aggression designed to ensnare and destroy us. That was what we sometimes discussed, and that was all. An offensive war against Hegemony would never have gained the support of the Citadel alliances, for instance, who were key elements in securing victory in the Karma War. The world would most likely have remained peacefully bipolar for quite some time (with Pacifican/Hegemony influence gradually waning). My best guess for why the war was fought, at the time it was, in the way it was, and by the alliances that it was, was that it was a last ditch effort to retain and recapture full Pacifican dominance of the world. It didn't work, but despite what happened, the war could have gone either way. As Steelrat alluded to #collective was incredibly chaotic and there were times where it looked like we were going to lose. Ironically, NPO's move against OV (especially as it happened during talks) was what sealed the outcome of the war, because it absolutely galvanized everyone in #collective to work together as one. Had NPO handled its execution of the war differently in the very beginning stages, or had OUT alliances hit OV instead, it is quite possible the war would have had a very different outcome.

OUT is an ODP, and I'd be damned before some afterthought ODP nullified an MDP commitment. ODP is not binding, MDP is. MDP>ODP. Thus, commitment to Ordo Verde>Adhering to OUT ODP.

[Heft]

Again, your side displays a profound lack of understanding both political and public relations.

The first huge mistake was the NPO enacting a press blackout and letting Vox have a field day without a solid counterpoint.

The second huge mistake was declaring war during peace negotiations in which both allies and potential enemies were involved. That alienated those that would have supported your side had you declared any war legitimately.

The third mistake was not taking measures to create a public image nor make concessions (until war was inevitable) that would increase your standing with the public as a whole. If large amounts of people like you, odds are more alliances would be willing to negotiate with you and perhaps even form a relationship or treaty with you. Instead, the NPO surrounded itself with its close "friends" whose main goal was to hide under the umbrella of Pacifican might and completely ignored or alienated everyone else. Had they started working on their image when peace terms from the last war expired, perhaps we would have experienced a different chain of events. Instead they went into blackout and isolation, only emerging just a handful of weeks before the Karma war attempting to hastily improve their image by releasing FAN and GATO and opening more constructive dialogue with MK and other historically opposing alliances.

You missed a number of mistakes in between 1 and 2.

Sparta should have been kicked from the Continuum months prior, and SF should have been attacked probably even before that. The mistakes the NPO made in these months were not being assertive or dominant enough and basically not doing all the stuff they were accused of doing. Even this war seems to have started the way it did largely because NPO leadership went along too much with what a few allies wanted.

[Essenia]

You missed a number of mistakes in between 1 and 2.

Sparta should have been kicked from the Continuum months prior, and SF should have been attacked probably even before that. The mistakes the NPO made in these months were not being assertive or dominant enough and basically not doing all the stuff they were accused of doing. Even this war seems to have started the way it did largely because NPO leadership went along too much with what a few allies wanted.

I'm not really sure what difference this would have made. SF and CnG would still be standing firm against NPO, 3/5 of Citadel alliances would be against NPO, with TOP being neutral and only OG on NPO's side (even if TOP were still in Q I seriously doubt they would have supported an offensive war like the one you're proposing, unless the CB was airtight).

[Delta1212]

You missed a number of mistakes in between 1 and 2.

Sparta should have been kicked from the Continuum months prior, and SF should have been attacked probably even before that. The mistakes the NPO made in these months were not being assertive or dominant enough and basically not doing all the stuff they were accused of doing. Even this war seems to have started the way it did largely because NPO leadership went along too much with what a few allies wanted.

Honestly, we never expected to make it past January without a war starting, until January rolled around and nothing happened, anyway. Personally, I think that was the tipping point. A lot of vulnerable spots started disappearing around February, and a lot of cracks started really cropping up in Continuum.

I think Vox's biggest victory, more than any information they actually managed to obtain, was making certain parts of the Continuum side of the web so fiercely paranoid and indecisive that they didn't know which end was up and ultimately defeated themselves. Quite frankly, I was always just a bit stupefied at the reaction many people had to Vox in the back channels. It was odder than the public reaction in a lot of ways. And, for the most part, that started showing up after January.

[Essenia]

Honestly, we never expected to make it past January without a war starting, until January rolled around and nothing happened, anyway. Personally, I think that was the tipping point. A lot of vulnerable spots started disappearing around February, and a lot of cracks started really cropping up in Continuum.

I think Vox's biggest victory, more than any information they actually managed to obtain, was making certain parts of the Continuum side of the web so fiercely paranoid and indecisive that they didn't know which end was up and ultimately defeated themselves. Quite frankly, I was always just a bit stupefied at the reaction many people had to Vox in the back channels. It was odder than the public reaction in a lot of ways. And, for the most part, that started showing up after January.

And then is the fact that several of Continuum alliances were highly incompetent and didn't know which way was up without NPO telling them things. That was a big one as well, though Vox contributed to that as well.

[Heft]

I'm not really sure what difference this would have made. SF and CnG would still be standing firm against NPO, 3/5 of Citadel alliances would be against NPO, with TOP being neutral and only OG on NPO's side (even if TOP were still in Q I seriously doubt they would have supported an offensive war like the one you're proposing, unless the CB was airtight).

Honestly, we never expected to make it past January without a war starting, until January rolled around and nothing happened, anyway. Personally, I think that was the tipping point. A lot of vulnerable spots started disappearing around February, and a lot of cracks started really cropping up in Continuum.

I think Vox's biggest victory, more than any information they actually managed to obtain, was making certain parts of the Continuum side of the web so fiercely paranoid and indecisive that they didn't know which end was up and ultimately defeated themselves. Quite frankly, I was always just a bit stupefied at the reaction many people had to Vox in the back channels. It was odder than the public reaction in a lot of ways. And, for the most part, that started showing up after January.

After January it was probably too late to do it cleanly, but before then there were a number of times it could have been pulled off. Too much confusion and mistrust and resentment within the ranks to make it happen, and too little leadership to pull anyone together.

[Neo Anglia]

You fought one hell of a fight guys.

o7 TPF

o/ PEACE!

[Penkala]

So much for white peace.

Probably beaten, but who the hell said they'd get white peace? Oh yeah, NPO members said they support it. Tip: that's not the same as Karma saying they'll do it.

[King Srqt]

After January it was probably too late to do it cleanly, but before then there were a number of times it could have been pulled off. Too much confusion and mistrust and resentment within the ranks to make it happen, and too little leadership to pull anyone together.

o/ Vox Populi!

That really is what it came down too, Q didn't know who or what they could trust which made it impossible to pull a front together that could dominate. It really is amazing what a few loud EZIers and their friends in other alliances could do.

[Delta1212]

o/ Vox Populi!

That really is what it came down too, Q didn't know who or what they could trust which made it impossible to pull a front together that could dominate. It really is amazing what a few loud EZIers and their friends in other alliances could do.

Vox EZI'd the Continuum and forced it to delete. Dirty EZIers.

[Londo Mollari]

OUT is an ODP, and I'd be damned before some afterthought ODP nullified an MDP commitment. ODP is not binding, MDP is. MDP>ODP. Thus, commitment to Ordo Verde>Adhering to OUT ODP.

I'm not claiming that the war wouldn't have happened, only that the outcome might have been quite different. For instance, had Vanguard disregarded OUT after a TORN attack on OV, TOP (who entered the Karma War via OUT anyway) might well have attacked Vanguard and C&G would have ended up fighting TOP instead of NPO. (actually my recollection is that just GOD/VE were going to hit TORN if TORN hit OV alone, but I could be a bit fuzzy, it's been months ) The point is that from a strategic standpoint an OUT attack on OV would probably have worked out better for hegemony than NPO hitting them in the middle of talks. In fact almost anything would have worked out better than hitting OV in the middle of talks. XD

[Penkala]

o/ Vox Populi!

That really is what it came down too, Q didn't know who or what they could trust which made it impossible to pull a front together that could dominate. It really is amazing what a few loud EZIers and their friends in other alliances could do.

Pretty much. The way this whole war came together was pretty damn amazing.

[Haflinger]

The last time an Orange alliance attacked another, it was GLOF, and we all know what happened there. It wasn't good for GLOF.

[Rafael Nadal]

I'm not claiming that the war wouldn't have happened, only that the outcome might have been quite different. For instance, had Vanguard disregarded OUT after a TORN attack on OV, TOP (who entered the Karma War via OUT anyway) might well have attacked Vanguard and C&G would have ended up fighting TOP instead of NPO. (actually my recollection is that just GOD/VE were going to hit TORN if TORN hit OV alone, but I could be a bit fuzzy, it's been months ) The point is that from a strategic standpoint an OUT attack on OV would probably have worked out better for hegemony than NPO hitting them in the middle of talks. In fact almost anything would have worked out better than hitting OV in the middle of talks. XD

The main idea was that we would not allow the war to develop in a way in which we would end up fighting on behalf of NPO and friends. Fighting on the same side as OV/Q was just plain not going to happen.

The last time an Orange alliance attacked another, it was GLOF, and we all know what happened there. It wasn't good for GLOF.

I have my own thoughts and opinions about that issue, and they don't culminate with Orange protecting Orange. I hate the OUT ODP, in case I haven't made that known enough.

[Essenia]

I'm not claiming that the war wouldn't have happened, only that the outcome might have been quite different. For instance, had Vanguard disregarded OUT after a TORN attack on OV, TOP (who entered the Karma War via OUT anyway) might well have attacked Vanguard and C&G would have ended up fighting TOP instead of NPO. (actually my recollection is that just GOD/VE were going to hit TORN if TORN hit OV alone, but I could be a bit fuzzy, it's been months ) The point is that from a strategic standpoint an OUT attack on OV would probably have worked out better for hegemony than NPO hitting them in the middle of talks. In fact almost anything would have worked out better than hitting OV in the middle of talks. XD

TOP also entered via MDPs with Umbrella, which was firmly on the side of Karma, so it's not like the options would have been cut off. Regardless, I suspect neutrality would have been the course of action had NPO started the war in a not idiotic way. TOP didn't withdraw from Q for no reason after all.

[Londo Mollari]

The main idea was that we would not allow the war to develop in a way in which we would end up fighting on behalf of NPO and friends. Fighting on the same side as OV/Q was just plain not going to happen.

I have my own thoughts and opinions about that issue, and they don't culminate with Orange protecting Orange. I hate the OUT ODP, in case I haven't made that known enough.

Yeah I remember that, I was there. Also rafa join aqua. Or black. Or something.

(I love it how we are talking about this here rather than in back channels. So much more entertaining.)

[Heft]

o/ Vox Populi!

That really is what it came down too, Q didn't know who or what they could trust which made it impossible to pull a front together that could dominate. It really is amazing what a few loud EZIers and their friends in other alliances could do.

To be fair plenty of those divisions would have cropped up anyway, and it was more the mishandling of the Vox situation which led to things spinning out of control than Vox itself, but, yes, Vox did exacerbate all the theretofore subdued divisions and murk up the waters quite a bit.