Overlord Shinnra Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 I'm going to start this by stating that my opinion while very opinionated is trying to be kept unbiased by it's owner. My alliances is pretty far off the fringes of the current war but I am very interested in it as a subject. With that being said let's delve in. ------------------ Global War One of the key things I see being said (admittedly even by me) is "wait til the war starts" for whatever purposes. What I think everyone is failing to realize is that this war has started and not only has the war started for obvious reasons (see: TPF being rolled) but also has gone global. There are many different definitions of war and most of them include the following; a. A state of open, armed, often prolonged conflict carried on between nations, states, or parties.b. The period of such conflict. Now some would argue that this current conflict hasn't become globally "armed" per say yet though we can all agree the arms race has already started. But this current war is quite different in that the main war being waged right now isn't against TPF. It's being waged in the background, behind closed doors. It's being waged for your loyalty via propaganda, pressuring via treaties and other non-military aspects of the game. While this can only be confirmed by the powers that be we can confirm enough from rumors and different actions from key players that this is indeed the case. Casus Belli It is actually a surprise to see that CB is still a big issue to some in today's world when it has been so blatantly disregarded by those in the current conflict. I don't mean to say that Athens, TPF don't care about the cb as they do vehemently try to out dumb log each other. I do mean to say that these current sides do not care what the war is fought over but more so that it is fought (when i say current sides I mean those lining up to fight). Why vehemently fight over the cb when these alliances really do not care? It is for those alliances that do. Look at announcements from FOK and Gramlins and you can see that there are still alliances that care about this honor in their own way but still acknowledge that the time of picking a super valid cb are all but obsolete. If this war were really about TPF's actions against Athens then Athens would fight this themselves. If this war were really about defending TPF against aggressive action then those alliances would have already declared in their defense instead of letting each day pass as TPF's former glory becomes a distant memory. In short the majority of planet bob has done away with caring for CB but the show put on by everyone trying to make it seem like they are in the right are vying for someones support and as long as the balance remains somewhere in the "I am at least 25% right range" then wars remain based on treaties and friendships and that alone. Tip of the hat to the TPF side for waiting this out Whether it was realizing that the CB doesn't matter that much or whether it was just waiting for the new year to pass you have to tip your hat to the TPF coalition for waiting this out. Although TPF is currently being rendered useless much in the way GATO was rendered useless in GW III before allys stood in it is easy to see that while GATO's allys were busy debating themselves on whether to enter or not TPF's allys have spent in increasing any advantages they might have. Though I don't pretend to know where individual alliances stand in the mess of things you would think that the Athen's side of war seemed to have the advantage in NS and sheer numbers (This from just looking at treaty chains). But in the short period of time this war has been fought two important things have happened. First and foremost those allies decided they wanted to fight the war just at the top ranks and peaced out all nations est. 60k and below. Now whether this strategy would have worked or not (I'm banking on the not) this forced the Athen's coalition to peace out their nations 60k and above which I will argue later is a very costly mistake. This forces the initiative from the Athen's coalitions hands by showing that they will react to any movement from the other side as opposed to them being the aggressors which they initially were. Secondly, and probably more importantly, certain treaties (See: NSO/IRON MDoAP) and certain announcements (See: FOK's virtual declaration of neutrality) were made that heavily favor TPF's coalition which make the numbers war more even then probably initially intended. So while TPF's pixels are being destroyed in the hundreds of thousands of ns the probability that they will win an eventual global war has gone up by millions of ns. Of course this could all be here say in the coming days and TPF could surrender rendering all this talk useless. The costly mistake of too much peace mode As stated earlier you can look at war screens of any TPF allys and company (See: IRON, TOOL, TOP) and they have peaced out all nations est. 60k ns and below. This prompted the Athen's allys and company (See: Ragnarok, MK, ODN) to peace out all nations est. 60k and above for whatever reason but probably because they thought they could fight fire with fire (rather peace for peace) and win in much the same way. Unfortunately the logic is not sound for again two reasons. Firstly, assuming that tactics are 50/50 and each side catches the same amount of nations that didn't get into peace mode in time the NS is larger in the upper ranks then it is in the lower ranks therefore giving the advantage to those that are decimating the upper ranks i.e. those that didn't peace their top nations. Secondly, this will leave a very distinct group of fighters to fight out the war namely those nations that might find their ns in the 70k - 50k range that will be able to attack one another. This again renders it's advantages to the aforementioned side in that their nations will be the larger (and likely more developed) nations fighting (60k - 70k) the smaller nations of the Athen's portion of the war (50k - 60k). There might be a trick up someone's sleeve yet as nations currently in peace mode can be very very dangerous down the road (See: Overlord Shinnra (B ). Where does this leave us? Unfortunately for all of us this leaves us with a big wall of words. The politics of this world are ever changing and everything can change in an instant. You might be winning one second and losing the next. The only advice I can give is watch your own back and treat everyone on this planet with the respect they are due and the fun we all deserve. At this point in time I'd still have to give the Athen's side of the coalition a slight advantage in NS and numbers but as you can see you can give the TPF side the advantage in the wars current set up and strategery (an invented word). I think we can all agree that the next few days, weeks and months will be interesting. Let's all work to keep it that way For your amusement Usually no one is brave enough to predict sides of war before they are committed in public. I will attempt my best here but as I stated before I have no insider knowledge into any of these alliances and thus it remains that ... a prediction. Everything listed in three categories; TPF and Allys, Athens and Allys and Neutral. Obviously there are some alliances still undecided but thats what makes predicting fun. For times sake I will only count alliances 3 Mill + or else this list could become very very long and convoluted. Tier 1 - 7.5 Mill+ Tier 2 - 5 Mill+ Tier 3 - 3 Mill + TPF and Allys Tier 1: TOP, IRON, TOOL Tier 2: Legion, Gramlins, UPN, MCXA Tier 3: NADC, MASH, Invicta, Umbrella, NSO, NEW, NATO, TSO, TFD, FEAR, Argent Athens and Allys Tier 1: NpO, Sparta, ODN, FARK, MK, VE, Tier 2: Ragnarok, GATO, Athens, CSN, RIA Tier 3: STA, NV, RnR, INT, GLOF, PC, TTK, GR, GOD, Vanguard, IAA, LoSS Neutral Tier 1: MHA, GPA, FOK, WTF, NPO Tier 2: TDO Tier 3: WAPA, FAN, NoR Notice how I left off my own alliance I hope you enjoy my long and wordy vantage point. tl;dr : Read the subtitles and you will know what things are about. PS. Goodbye frostbite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentFury Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 cant wait to do some pwning and way to go OS on adding TR hehe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sanders Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 I see some incorrect assumptions on both of your sides. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overlord Shinnra Posted January 2, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 I see some incorrect assumptions on both of your sides. how exciting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ponken Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 FOK shouldnt be Neutral, they should be in the "Crazy Dutchies"-category. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shilo Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Except what BS mentioned already, doesn't look wrong at all imho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdasda10 Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 It's cool, we don't exist in TORN anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Watson895 Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Neutrals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebbie Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 (edited) brilliant timing with this i was just thinking how much i would love to read another topic about the upcoming war Edited January 2, 2010 by Jebbie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlmightyGrub Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 The New Polar Order is not allied to Athens either directly or indirectly. Poor assumptions right there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mergerberger II Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 The New Polar Order is not allied to Athens either directly or indirectly. Poor assumptions right there This. Also to make plurals with words ending in 'y', you drop the 'y' and add 'ies'. So 'ally' would become 'allies', not 'allys'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaBuc Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 The New Polar Order is not allied to Athens either directly or indirectly. Poor assumptions right there Were your treaties with MK and GR canceled during my hiatus (during one of my check-ins I noticed some argument between y'all and MK, but I don't know whether anything came of it)? If not, you're indirectly tied to Athens. Even if those treaties are gone, you're still tied to CnG via STA via MK. -Bama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Louis the II Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Were your treaties with MK and GR canceled during my hiatus (during one of my check-ins I noticed some argument between y'all and MK, but I don't know whether anything came of it)? If not, you're indirectly tied to Athens. Even if those treaties are gone, you're still tied to CnG via STA via MK.-Bama I had the impression the NpO had a MDoP with RoK as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mergerberger II Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Were your treaties with MK and GR canceled during my hiatus (during one of my check-ins I noticed some argument between y'all and MK, but I don't know whether anything came of it)? If not, you're indirectly tied to Athens. Even if those treaties are gone, you're still tied to CnG via STA via MK.-Bama Our treaties are non-chaining. We are tied only to our allies and no one else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Brendan Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Our treaties are non-chaining. We are tied only to our allies and no one else. Your treaty with STA chained during the Karma War. Unless the recent upgrade was really a downgrade, I would assume you still interpret it in the same way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaBuc Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Our treaties are non-chaining. We are tied only to our allies and no one else. Thank you for clarifying that. -Bama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlmightyGrub Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Your treaty with STA chained during the Karma War. Unless the recent upgrade was really a downgrade, I would assume you still interpret it in the same way. No and we will read our treaties as we intended them to be read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fallen Fool Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Your treaty with STA chained during the Karma War. Unless the recent upgrade was really a downgrade, I would assume you still interpret it in the same way.Our chaining clauses ensure that our treaty reverts back to a ODP in the event of one of our allies becoming involved in a conflict through a treaty with a third party. We are then left with the option to either maintain neutrality, or intervene. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overlord Shinnra Posted January 2, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 The New Polar Order is not allied to Athens either directly or indirectly. Poor assumptions right there I don't think it is poor assumptions as much as just guessing wrong. Thank you though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BraveNewWorld Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Your treaty with STA chained during the Karma War. Unless the recent upgrade was really a downgrade, I would assume you still interpret it in the same way. No it did not chain. We were not required to enter the Karma war in any way. We entered on our own option to reaffirm our already declared stance that nobody screws with STA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltus Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Nice job, OS. This will be an interesting war, no doubt of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfEmpty Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Of course this could all be here say in the coming days and TPF could surrender rendering all this talk useless. Do not let this cloud your event horizon. TPF was carefully chosen by both sides for our task - and while we take our responsibilities to our allies seriously, we take our responsabilities to the body Bobia even more seriously. We will not falter, we will not fail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Un4Gvn1 Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Overlord Shinnra, your OP is interesting, well written and a pleasure to read. Your type of reasoned thinking 'out loud' - as it were - is a nice contribution to the world discussion. It is also good to see those with differing opinions stating their cases respectfully; that is what builds a thread that is good through and through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D34th Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Your treaty with STA chained during the Karma War. Unless the recent upgrade was really a downgrade, I would assume you still interpret it in the same way. 6. Polaris gives fair warning to all of CyberNations. Any attacks on the Siberian Tiger Alliance will be met with the full reprisals of the New Polar Order. Do not want us involved, don't mess with the Tygas. Our treaty does not fully cover the dedication we have to each other, be aware. Just to remember. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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