Doc Taco Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 (edited) A rough estimate on tech destruction. Numbers are nothing more than educated guesses. I am looking for accuracies within one order of magnitude and make claims to nothing more. War Duration Thus Far: 15 Days Average #of wars/day: This is harder to estimate. Currently the number of wars active is about 11500, but that s down from a peak of over 13000 if I recall. But that is up from the number of wars in the first few days before the Coalition of the Cowardly entered the fray. So let us say the average # of wars/day is about the same as the current # of wars as of this writing, so 11500. Amount of CM attacks: 4 per war per day*11500 wars *15 days = 690,000 Amount of tech destroyed per CM: This number varies greatly. I destroy 2.73 tech per missile, but if you don't have a WRC that will be less. The large amount of high NS alliances in this war (Gre, Umbrella, etc.) probably offsets the large number of small nations (under 20K NS) whose CMs don't do much at all in the way of tech damage. So I will conservatively guess that, on average, the average tech destruction per CM is about .9 tech. So tech destroyed by CMs = 690000 CM attacks * .9 tech per CM = 621000 Tech Destroyed by CMs # of Nukes Launched: This is again very difficult to estimate. Without going through and counting the number of nukes launched (which would be very tedious), I will just estimate that 40% of all the wars have been nuclear wars. We cannot simply extrapolate the total number of wars times 40% to get the total number of nukes launched, however, because so many wars are overlapping, and nations can only be hit by one nuke a day. So let us make another assumption that of the 40% of all wars each day which are nuclear (40% * 11500 = 4600) that half of those (50%) 60% are on overlapping targets. This leaves us with an estimate of 1840 Nukes launched each day. Notice that I do not care about nukes destroyed by SDIs. 1840 Nukes * 15 days = 27,600 Successful nuke attacks. (I just realized that if someone knew the equation for the GRL they could estimate the # of nuke launches that way with more accuracy. I don't have that equation on hand, so oh well. But if somone wants to revise this estimate feel free.) Tech Destroyed per nuke: Again nations with a WRC will destroy more than nations without. I will again lowball and guess that 70 Tech destroyed is about average. So 27600 * 70 = 1,932,000 Tech Destroyed by Nukes Total Tech Destroyed: 1,932,000+621000=2,553,000 Tech Total cost of all Destroyed Tech: At the going rate of 3 Mill per 100 tech (sorry Guru Order) I get $76,590,000,000.00 worth of tech destroyed thus far in the war. This is a lot of money. Taking that much currency out of the game could have some serious macroeconomic consequences. Discuss either the methodology or the consequences of this. Edit: I made changes based on suggestions below from Lord Brendan and Bob Janova, changes the CM attacks/day to 4 and the percent of overlapping nuclear wars to 60% rather than 50% (this may still be an underestimate). This reduced the estimate of the value of tech destroyed by $5 Billion. Edited May 7, 2009 by Doc Taco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lackistan Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 Somewhere out there, a Grämlin is weeping. But yeah, probably not much of an impact, since it is a renewable resource. It will just re-generate. Prices might drop, though, since there will be more sellers available, potentially. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heracles the Great Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 (edited) Looking forward to paying $3m for 150 tech again EDIT: Great work on the estimates Edited May 7, 2009 by HeraclesTheGreat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haflinger Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 The equation for the GRL is based on the number of nuked nations, not on the number of nukes fired. A nation like mine that took 5 nukes counts as one nuked nation just the same as a nation that took 10 nukes or a nation that took 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azrael Alexander Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 A good estimate actually, is this what you have been doing in your spare time doc? There are threads here that are more worthy of your attention. That said the stat collector in me weeps :'( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gork Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 Not enough tech is being destroyed, there's all these people with 1k infra and 3k tech running around. )): As I see it, aid slots after the war will be occupied by reconstruction aid and reps, and thus the tech market will grow more slowly or even shrink. Some buyers might stop buying because of the infra loss, but unless their tech drops to 0, I don't see them turning to tech-selling. The pressure applied to prices would be similar to a rise in sellers, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Brendan Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 Amount of CM attacks:2 per war per day*11500 wars *15 days = 345,000 Assuming both combatants are active, there are 4 CMs fired per war per day, not just 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Janova Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 You can get an estimate of overlapping wars by looking at the wars per nation for the high end alliances. Most of our first wave was in 3 to 5 wars so that's much more than 50% overlapping. However, I'm sure that this is of the right order, at least. Hundreds of billions more has gone in infra. While smaller, the amount spent on military equipment destroyed in battle (which is a pure money sink) will have been noticable. I don't think it will have much of an effect though, other than to rewind the tape a few months. Top nations still produce a huge surplus and so the money taken from the system will be returned quite quickly. Somewhere out there, a Grämlin is weeping. That would be the ones who have individually lost billions worth of tech and infra Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Taco Posted May 7, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 I edited the OP based upon suggestions made by Bob Janova and Lord Brendan. These revisions lowered the value of tech destroyed by ~$5 Billion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electron Sponge Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 That would be the ones who have individually lost billions worth of tech and infra At least you guys had billions worth of tech and infra to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Il Principe Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 Total NS in this game has decreased from 475 mil NS to 405 mil NS. So less as 15% of the 'economy' is gone. I think it is rather strange that some things (like land) are decreasing way easier/faster as others (like tech). Do people think this is some kind of 'flaw' in the war system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Taco Posted May 7, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 Total NS in this game has decreased from 475 mil NS to 405 mil NS. So less as 15% of the 'economy' is gone.I think it is rather strange that some things (like land) are decreasing way easier/faster as others (like tech). Do people think this is some kind of 'flaw' in the war system? I think land is decreasing because people who lose their navies sell off their land quickly to negate the effect of being navy-less. But yes I think the whole navy system needs to be looked at again in light of this war, not least because of the effect it has on land issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Chill I Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 (edited) Somewhere out there, a Grämlin is weeping. LOL We have tech for a specific purpose. So in absolute terms, yea it hurts. In relative terms though we are throwing parties. Edited May 7, 2009 by King Chill I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gork Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 Do people think this is some kind of 'flaw' in the war system? I don't think there's a problem with land loss, since people deliberately sell land as someone mentioned earlier, but I believe tech loss is disproportionate to infra loss in war. Tech itself is hard to get, if you compare it to a point of infra, but I just finished fighting Vladimir, and his 2500+ tech/WRC combo is a tough match for what 20-30k NS nations can muster. There's a couple of potential solutions to this problem I might suggest later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haflinger Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 I think land is decreasing because people who lose their navies sell off their land quickly to negate the effect of being navy-less. But yes I think the whole navy system needs to be looked at again in light of this war, not least because of the effect it has on land issues. My land isn't much over the 1K line; if the war had continued on I was fully expecting to get nuked below 1K land before TOP managed to kill my navy. If I hadn't gotten nuked down, I was planning on selling down. Why give people the navy advantage? Would be a much bigger deal if I was one of those raiders with 5K+ land I suppose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayOvfEnnay Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 Considering I haven't any sattelites or WRC's, and I destroy around 2 tech per CM, you may want to about double that calculation of of .9 per missile. Otherwise this is an interesting statistic. I believe the equation for the GRL can be found on the wikipage of Global Radiation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammer Posted May 10, 2009 Report Share Posted May 10, 2009 Hopefully we'll see a lot more tech disappear too. *advocates a disarmament clause in certain alliances peace treaties of a cap of 500 tech per individual nation (not average, literally a personal cap). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wu Tang Clan Posted May 10, 2009 Report Share Posted May 10, 2009 Interesting. This really has my attention. Too bad CN isn't more like real life... where there will be fallout, government switches, firesales and wars over tech sellers (for trading purposes, or government influence). That would make this so much more interesting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unspeakable Evil Posted May 10, 2009 Report Share Posted May 10, 2009 (edited) Just my two cents: On April 22, there were 200 alliances with 20 or more members. They had a grand total of 19,440,117 tech. As of yesterday, there 209 alliances with 20 or more members. They had 17,578,795 tech left. As ballpark estimates go, seems ~2M tech is pretty good. Edited May 10, 2009 by Unspeakable Evil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravnica Posted May 10, 2009 Report Share Posted May 10, 2009 This isn't counting tech stolen from attacks, right? I mean, it's not being destroyed, it's just being stolen. >_> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahman Posted May 10, 2009 Report Share Posted May 10, 2009 it doesnt count defeat alerts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfloyd2002 Posted May 10, 2009 Report Share Posted May 10, 2009 Frankly, we need more losses than this to make CN play as it was intended. With the a prolonged period of peace, CN has become bloated to the point of altering the gameplay. (As two examples among many, given the size of nations, warchests and incomes, the amount of money taken in raids, and even the amount available to send in aid, is irrelevant.) And the numbers you calculate seem large at first blush, but not in comparison to the financial might of CN. What is amazing, as shown by the War of the Coalition and will likely be shown by NPO after this war, is how quickly these losses can be rebuilt. Despite all the losses to infra, tech, land, rebuilt military, it won't take long to put the money back in the system. Right now there are about 2000 nations over 50k NS, each of whom should be clearing over 5 million per day in profit, some much more. But roughly speaking just those 2000 nations are making $10 billion per day. And that ignores the other 28,000 nations in CN. Compared to the overall daily income levels, the losses of this war seem like nothing. Its going to take more than these losses to slow down the CN economic freight train. (Also, hi Doc! Great to see you!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omfghi2u2 Posted May 10, 2009 Report Share Posted May 10, 2009 (edited) Not to mention that some people dont even fight back or do not know how to fight. -omfg Edited May 10, 2009 by omfghi2u2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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