Tech Scarcity - Rough economic analysis

[Sabioviejo]

Planet Bob has a tech scarcity problem. There are too much nations in need of tech, not enough nations dealing tech and not enough increase in new nations to cover the needs.

Planet Bob needs a constant feeding of tech, the problem however is that nations grow, and when they cross the border of around 100-150 tech, techdeals become rather impossible, and the nations will start to buy tech instead of sell it. This problem also becomes visible when you notice the fast rising price of tech (and donations for that matter), from 3/150 to 3/100 an even 3/50 sometimes, in other words tech becomes scarce, the demand is rising and the supply is shrinking. Worse, every nation that crosses into the +150 zone means less supply and more demand.

With some simple and rough calculations I will show that we don't use our techcreating capacity at all. Bear with me because I broke my left arm and made these calculations and this post with one hand only .

Some rough assumptions made:

-After 150 tech you can't sell tech anymore

-Ideally a nation could sell 500 tech and receive 15 mil in 30 days. I will use this to calculate capacity.

-CN's total nations is not growing.

There are 31,401 nations in CN, of those 40% (12440 nations) have more then 150 tech and 60%(18961 nations) have less then 150 tech. This would seem to be enough to cover the need of tech of the +150 zone. Ideally they would be able to sell 9,480,500 tech each 30 days, this is an insane amount considering there is 9,723,733 total tech in 205 alliances. if we want to have a rough number of the actual capacity, without the inactives/lazy/warring etc nations, we have to estimate the actual capacity. This will end in very rough numbers, but getting them exact is nearly impossible. Lets assume a total of 20% (3792 nations) of the -150 zone can use their total capacity (we need to ignore nations who don't use their full capacity and process them into the ideal capacity otherwise the calculations will become quit complex) This looks like a conservative estimation. But this still means that each 30 days 1,896,100 tech will be sold and after less then 5 months the total tech will be doubled..... So we are gonna estimate even smaller numbers. Lets say 5% (948 nations), this means 474,025 tech every 30 days, and after 20 moths the total tech will be doubled. Since its nearly impossible to know how much tech is being sold every 30 days I'm gonna assume its not higher then 474,025 tech.

This shows us that we are using our capacity very inefficient, even when we add other factors in, like wars, laziness, inactivity we still use allot less then our actual capacity.

A few things are probably causing this:

-too much alliances hamper the efficient use of capacity.

-allot of new inexperienced alliances create an unstable market.

-the inefficiency in most of the techdeals decreases capacity.

-the lack in actual growth in total nations decreases the capacity over time due to the growth of existing nations into the +150 zone.

-the high wastage of nations in the -150 zone (I estimate that about 50-75% of every new nation doesn't get older then 20 days, on average 232 nations get deleted every day), this creates allot of instability and lack of experience.

I don't have any ready-made solutions or answers to these problems, but I wanted to at least point the problem out. There definitely is a lack of reliable, lasting, affordable tech these days.

[enderland]

The answer:

Tech raiding!!

[Sabioviejo]

The answer:

Tech raiding!!

try that above 40k NS.............

[enderland]

My Nation Strength: 48,983.582

[Vanadrin Failing]

Tech Raiding doesn't address the initial issue of NEW tech entering the 'economy'. It's just a redistribution of existing Tech.

[Gebiv]

Well, not everyone buys tech indefinitely. For instance, I'll only be buying to about 1000 tech. (max bill reduction)

Also, don't forget the law of supply.

[iMatt]

I haven't really noticed the shortage of tech sellers. All you have to do is recruit the little uns into your alliance and train em

[Sabioviejo]

Tech Raiding doesn't address the initial issue of NEW tech entering the 'economy'. It's just a redistribution of existing Tech.

Thats true .

Well, not everyone buys tech indefinitely. For instance, I'll only be buying to about 1000 tech. (max bill reduction)

Also, don't forget the law of supply.

if you grow bigger, you will need tech to be able to survive wars, to match your opponents , especially after the latest tech effect on battles.

Could you explain the law of supply?

I haven't really noticed the shortage of tech sellers. All you have to do is recruit the little uns into your alliance and train em

Its not so much the shortage of dealers, but the lack of organization. buying 50 tech is easy, having a reliable supplier for an extended period is becoming difficult imho.

Edited June 16, 2008 by Sitethief

[Goofy Goober]

I buy it myself. I have no shortage of money, but slots are to valuable to use on yourself

[Learz]

An interesting post.

I'd liek to point out that the Tech Deal Forums always have a shortage of small nations, and as the small nations get larger, they begin to buy tech (meaning not only do we lose a small nation, we gain a large nation as well).

Eventually, we will have an ever-increasing number of large nations, and an ever-decreasing amount of small nations.

[Sabioviejo]

I buy it myself. I have no shortage of money, but slots are to valuable to use on yourself

5 tech costs me 1,5 million

[Sabioviejo]

An interesting post.

I'd liek to point out that the Tech Deal Forums always have a shortage of small nations, and as the small nations get larger, they begin to buy tech (meaning not only do we lose a small nation, we gain a large nation as well).

Eventually, we will have an ever-increasing number of large nations, and an ever-decreasing amount of small nations.

You guys are a good example of how to techdeal the right way .

[Terra Extraneus]

Honestly, I think that the tech market should be shut down. Tech should have never been able to be sent in the first place. That would have solved a whole lot more of inflation than just diminishing the # of NS points one gets from getting tech. If the improvements/resources/wonders/government choice had a higher discount for tech purchasing I would see this being a lot better. Because honestly, if tech were a fair price, a whole lot more nations would purchase it from themselves. But of course, what I believe is different from the discussion going on. >___>

I personally have not felt the tech shortage. (Probably because I don't really seek it, if a deal comes up I'll take it.) But I know people who are having a hard time to find enough sellers for 3X3, 4X4, 5X5 deals.

[Gebiv]

The law of supply is some thing along the lines of "The higher the price of the product, the more the supplier will produce." Doesn't translate exactly like RL to here because you can only give out so much tech at one time, but it can be applied in the sense that with the high demand, sellers will stay sellers longer, especially if the price goes up.

[General Justin]

well i sell tech and I too have seen the demand increase allowing me to now ask for 3 mil/50 tech deals

i have 4 slots coming available for either 1-time or permanent tech deals...pm my nation if your interested

[LynnCreed]

The law of supply is some thing along the lines of "The higher the price of the product, the more the supplier will produce." Doesn't translate exactly like RL to here because you can only give out so much tech at one time, but it can be applied in the sense that with the high demand, sellers will stay sellers longer, especially if the price goes up.

This. Plus what you guys don't take into account is that some people get utterly crushed in wars and need to rebuild. good way to raise funds is sell tech. Just encourage the people in your alliances to sell tech when they need aid instead of letting them mooch off the alliance for free.

[TheyCallMeJeezy]

Well, not everyone buys tech indefinitely. For instance, I'll only be buying to about 1000 tech. (max bill reduction)

Also, don't forget the law of supply.

with the most recent major update tech is now more important than ever so there is not benefit of stopping at 1000. plus the economic bonus continues to 5000 tech with the appropriate wonders.

[ochocinco]

Shhh.... Don't even talk about $3m/50. You'll give them ideas.

[JoshuaR]

Shhh.... Don't even talk about $3m/50. You'll give them ideas.

There's a reason I tell everyone I buy donations for $3mil and 150 tech for $3mil.

[Choader]

Only the most foolish and gullible of nations would sell a donation for $3M. Twenty bucks is a lot of money for a piddling amount like that, I've been selling tech for $6M/150 and wouldn't even consider spending twenty of my dollars for a lousy $3M.

[Stylesjl]

I am already feeling the tech shortage at the tech deal forums. And I just bought a brand new Disaster Relief Agency

[LynnCreed]

I sell and will continue to sell tech for $3mil/150 tech for as long as the price of tech does not rise. i is not greedy. ^.^

[Syzygy]

you guys look into the issue from the complete *wrong* side.

What we have currently (the tech market) is a huge, gigantic organized workaround of the game mechanic that higher techlevels cost more cash. So, that there is a shortage of techsellers and nations now need to 'buy' their own tech is not a 'problem', its how it SHOULD HAVE BEEN at all times. That is why there are resources and improvements in the game that discount the price of technology.

The whole techmarket rendered the price of tech basically useless, since *anyone* could buy it for a fixed price of 100 for 3M, not matter his own techcount. That is the reason we see nations with 10k technology and more (levels which were NEVER intented to reach). Even worse, you will see nations with more tech than infra or land in the future, since there is NO reason to ever stop importing tech. It costs no upkeep but helps you in wars, brings you into the 5% range, brings you into senate range and even increases income up to 5k technology (currently).

What can be done:

- re-implement an 1/3rd rule or even 1/5th rule for aiding tech *immediately*. That means: to aid out 50tech, you need at least 150/250 own tech. Thats how it was a year or two ago and it is *by far* more realistic and stops the overinflated tech-flow from the small to the big nations. Tech price would immediately go up a lot when importing it [and that was intented by the admin *anyway*]. Higher needs for sending tech means: the techcost-lowering resources (gold, microchips) are strengthened immediately, since you now need to buy from 200-250 before being able to send the next 50tech out = that is by far more costly, so the bonus on techcosts equals a lot more savings.

- increase the techbonus effect for Gold from 5% to 10%

- increase the techbonus effect for Microchips from 8% to 20%

- increase the techbonus effect for Great University from 10% to 15%

- increase the techbonus effect for National Research Lab from 3% to 10%

- increase the techbonus effect for Space Program from 3% to 8%

Max Tech-Reduction Bonus now is: 1*0.95*0.92*0.9*0.97*0.97*0.8 = -40.79%

Max Tech-Reduction Bonus then would be: 1*0.9*0.8*0.85*0.9*0.92*0.8 = -59.46%

- implement a limit that a nation can only hold as much tech as it has infra. if your infracount is lower or equal to your techcount, you can neither import nor buy more technology. If your infracount is lower then your techcount, all your techboni (for income, battle effects and bill reduction) are only applied for tech up to your infralevel, whatever you have above counts for nothing.

[oinkoink12]

Agree, implement this please

[enderland]

Ignoring any tech bonus from the Universities, at 3200ish tech, my 4.5 mil/10 tech would still cost about 2.7 million for 10 tech.

I'm never going to buy that, ever. I'd imagine for larger nations where tech is even more expensive that they too would never choose to buy tech for those prices.

The only nations that would help are nations that are really high infra currently with very low amount of tech (relatively, like 1kish) and all those wonders.