Decomposition Posted January 31, 2008 Report Share Posted January 31, 2008 I'm now 186 days old and have yet to experience an event. The odds of that happening if the odds really are 10% are 1 in 324,259,900. Yup - less than 1 in 300 million. And yes, I've collected taxes on almost every day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zikawe Posted January 31, 2008 Report Share Posted January 31, 2008 Yea, its got to be higher then 1/10. I always get them in bursts, if I get one I normally get another couple in the next few days but then I do not get any for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArgonV Posted January 31, 2008 Report Share Posted January 31, 2008 I think you aren't understanding him correctly. If it's higher than 10%, say 12%, then the chance of this not happening for 186 straight days is one in 21,194,490,460. So 1 in 21 billion. Unless I understand you incorrectly and it should be more like 1/20. But that's still a 1 in 14.000 chance... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
US of Europe Posted February 1, 2008 Report Share Posted February 1, 2008 ussualy 2~3 months nothing, than in one week 3 to 5 events. But it is possible you haven't got an event yet, not that surprizing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Decomposition Posted February 1, 2008 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2008 ussualy 2~3 months nothing, than in one week 3 to 5 events. But it is possible you haven't got an event yet, not that surprizing. Not that surprising???? Odds of less than 1 in 300 million! How often do you win the lottery or are hit by meteorites? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBFG Posted February 1, 2008 Report Share Posted February 1, 2008 The fact that you yourself haven't had an event isn't proof of anything, even if the chances of that happening are low. If you had numbers for a large amount of nations, then you could start to build a case. But even then, going on anecdotal evidence alone is not going to give you a representative sample, since people who ask about these things in public are usually the ones who haven't had many events, so just looking for those will give a skewed view of reality. Since to my knowledge nobody has a real representative sample of the amount of events hit by nations, we're not going to know the real answer to this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnsweaver Posted February 1, 2008 Report Share Posted February 1, 2008 I'm going to chime in to support TheBFG's theory. My nation is 222 days old and I just had my second event about 10 days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Decomposition Posted February 1, 2008 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2008 The fact that you yourself haven't had an event isn't proof of anything, even if the chances of that happening are low.If you had numbers for a large amount of nations, then you could start to build a case. But even then, going on anecdotal evidence alone is not going to give you a representative sample, since people who ask about these things in public are usually the ones who haven't had many events, so just looking for those will give a skewed view of reality. Since to my knowledge nobody has a real representative sample of the amount of events hit by nations, we're not going to know the real answer to this. Oh man.... OK time for stats lessons again. The claim is that the probability of an event occurring are 10% every time taxes are collected. Now we have my nation (and many other nations like me) that has never had an event occurring. According to binomial theory the odds of a 10% chance event not occurring for 186 days is less than 1 in 300 million. This is not just a "low probability" but definitive evidence that the 10% figure is wrong. There are other nations that have not had an event for well over 200 days (odds go into the billions to one). Even ignoring other nations my case is not anecdotal since I have a sample of 186 events. I have a PhD in statistics so please don't tell me that I am just "unlucky". The 10% figure is very very wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingdom of Royalty Posted February 1, 2008 Report Share Posted February 1, 2008 It is not rocket science to realise 10% is incorrect, if the chance was 1/10, then it would roughly be 1 event every 11 or so days. This is blatently not the case, and since admin has never disclosed the figure, or may have changed it since he did, it is not even worth debating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBFG Posted February 1, 2008 Report Share Posted February 1, 2008 It is not rocket science to realise 10% is incorrect, if the chance was 1/10, then it would roughly be 1 event every 11 or so days. This is blatently not the case, and since admin has never disclosed the figure, or may have changed it since he did, it is not even worth debating. No, it certainly wouldn't be roughly "1 in 11 days". You might expect the average to be one in every 10 (where did you pluck the 11 from?) collections (not days), but it's pretty easy (even expected) to go through a series of much longer non-events. Oh man.... OK time for stats lessons again. The claim is that the probability of an event occurring are 10% every time taxes are collected. Now we have my nation (and many other nations like me) that has never had an event occurring. According to binomial theory the odds of a 10% chance event not occurring for 186 days is less than 1 in 300 million. This is not just a "low probability" but definitive evidence that the 10% figure is wrong. There are other nations that have not had an event for well over 200 days (odds go into the billions to one).Even ignoring other nations my case is not anecdotal since I have a sample of 186 events. I have a PhD in statistics so please don't tell me that I am just "unlucky". The 10% figure is very very wrong. ok, compared to the previous guy this I'm willing to believe you indeed have that PhD in stats ;-), but I assure you it's not time for that lesson so don't try to show off when you don't know who you're talking to please, you're just making yourself look foolish this way. I do very much understand what you were trying to say, the only thing that I've said is that just because you have got a string of 186 non-events, doesn't mean anything. As small as that chance is, there is a chance of it happening - right? Also you're mixing things up. Either you have a confirmed sample size of "1" in the category "string of 186 misses". In which case your sample of 1 is obviously not relevant statistically, or you have a sample size of 186 individual events, but that is out of a population of 2 years worth of 30,000+ nations collecting, say on average about once every other day, ie about 10 million collections, meaning your sample is too small to make any judgement about the general population. Either way, based on just your numbers we just can't draw any conclusions - that is the only thing I tried to say. For the record I agree with you that it's looking pretty unlikely that the 10% figure is indeed true (for example I've had 6 in about 200 collections in 400 days), I've had suspicions about this for ages and I'm not the only one. However, as far as I know nobody has ever done a proper analysis of these figures, so basically there is no knowledge what the number is, and until then anybodies claim that it is x% is as good as anybody elses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjav0 Posted February 1, 2008 Report Share Posted February 1, 2008 Havent had a event in the past 9 months orso.. only had 3 total and my nation is nearly one yr old Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingdom of Royalty Posted February 1, 2008 Report Share Posted February 1, 2008 No, it certainly wouldn't be roughly "1 in 11 days". You might expect the average to be one in every 10 (where did you pluck the 11 from?) Depends how the code is setup, there would be reasons for the extra day there. Oh and btw there is reason to suggest it is based on days since last tax collection and not per tax collection, but the effect only takes place after you have collected taxes. (hence why if you wait 19 days and then collect taxes, more often than normal you seem to get an event). I could be wrong here, of course, as there is not sufficient information. In which case your sample of 1 is obviously not relevant statistically, or you have a sample size of 186 individual events, but that is out of a population of 2 years worth of 30,000+ nations collecting, say on average about once every other day, ie about 10 million collections, meaning your sample is too small to make any judgement about the general population. Infact it is, based on his numbers, we could come to a "reasonable" conclusion. I will try telling someone who has played bingo for 50 years that because she has not won anything in that time, it means nothing as to the probability of winning, and that it is still 1 in 10, and see what reaction I get. and until then anybodies claim that it is x% is as good as anybody elses. Not really.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallfrog Posted February 1, 2008 Report Share Posted February 1, 2008 I've had 6 events in 370 days Thats about 1/60 Given allot of people seem to have about the same number of events as me, I believe that is about right. However, events are not random, they group together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingdom of Royalty Posted February 1, 2008 Report Share Posted February 1, 2008 However, events are not random, they group together. It does seem to be the case doesen't it, though it could just be only people make posts when they get two events at once, but when they don't, nothing is ever said, I suppose.. There would be nothing stopping admin making the probability be on a per-week basis set per individual user, or any other bizzare method he may have put in, as it keeps the players guessing and gives them something to discuss. This would explain many of the "several events at once" reports.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cirrus Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 If you see something that's incorrect on the wiki, change it. That's why it's a wiki. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBFG Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 If you see something that's incorrect on the wiki, change it. That's why it's a wiki. This actually captures my point quite well. I have no idea where the 10% on the wiki comes from, I also have a "feeling" it probably is lower than that, but as far as I know there is no research (or admin statement) to say it is anything else, therefore it lives there as it is. Anybody who wanted to change it sure would make sure that they could back up their claims with some research. Just to say "no it isn't" (when in fact what was meant was "my experience is that it looks very unlikely that it is") doesn't really go anywhere towards that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myruler Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 Since when do people trust wikipedia? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syzygy Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 (edited) since Wikipedia has proven to be more correct, up-to-date and substantial then every other encyclopedia in the world? @topic: my nation is roughly a year old and I had maybe 5-6 events. I did collect quite often during this time. Edited February 2, 2008 by (DAC)Syzygy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbiased mod Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 people get less events also because of swaps, events occur on tax collection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodrow Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 Im 130 days old or so, and I've had 3 events. One bad close to when I first started. In the last week, Ive had two good events(both the exact same as a matter of fact). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magicman657 Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 There's a theory that desired government affects event rates and that makes sense since most people always use Monarchy. I just got a Great Monument so after a week or two hopefully I'll see some results. I haven't had an event in multiple months but I rarely collected with desired. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James I Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 I know someone who got his first events after 600 days or so..and they were bad ones too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HYPERiON Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 (edited) Oh man.... OK time for stats lessons again. The claim is that the probability of an event occurring are 10% every time taxes are collected. Now we have my nation (and many other nations like me) that has never had an event occurring. According to binomial theory the odds of a 10% chance event not occurring for 186 days is less than 1 in 300 million. This is not just a "low probability" but definitive evidence that the 10% figure is wrong. There are other nations that have not had an event for well over 200 days (odds go into the billions to one).Even ignoring other nations my case is not anecdotal since I have a sample of 186 events. I have a PhD in statistics so please don't tell me that I am just "unlucky". The 10% figure is very very wrong. So, doctor, what you're saying is that if I happen to flip a coin 50 times, and it turns up 50 heads, then a coin flip does not have a 50% probability? It is unlikely yes, but 50% is most definitely correct. Also, you have only done one test (you). You do not seem to have considered the possibility of there being a nation that gets a new event every week. Edited February 2, 2008 by HYPERiON Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingdom of Royalty Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 So, doctor, what you're saying is that if I happen to flip a coin 50 times, and it turns up 50 heads, then a coin flip does not have a 50% probability? It is unlikely yes, but 50% is most definitely correct.Also, you have only done one test (you). You do not seem to have considered the possibility of there being a nation that gets a new event every week. If you want to be technical, the chance is not exacly 50% as the sides have different markings on them.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDave Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 If you were to have 9 red balls and one blue ball in a bag, and were to draw 9 balls before refilling the bag. You 1 in insert large number probability figures would be accurate for the blue ball always being the last out the bag in 300 draws. The possibility of an event on day X is an unrelated contingency to whether an event occured on day Y. It is a 10% chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.