Wiki Entry on Events in Incorrect

[Reformentia]

I concur with the Sir above me, the odds have clearly been altered since the 10% figure was stated. Yes, just because the odds are 10% that doesn't mean that it isn't possible for a few nations to go 30 or 50 or 200 tax collections without ever getting one. In fact, in a sample size of 30,000+ nations it would hardly be unexpected. But the average nation should be receiving at least close to one event every ten collections, and while there probably are some who actually manage that figure I don't know a single one who even comes close. I've had 2, perhaps 3, events in the last year... I just recently received what I am fairly certain was my first in 6 months or so, and I don't usually tend to go long stretched without a collection. And that is not at all an uncommon figure among the people I've spoken to about this subject. It should be a possible but rare thing if the odds were really 10%, but it's closer to being the norm. I would judge the odds closer to 2 or 3 percent. Maybe 4.

Edited February 5, 2008 by Reformentia

[Decomposition]

I concur with the Sir above me, the odds have clearly been altered since the 10% figure was stated. Yes, just because the odds are 10% that doesn't mean that it isn't possible for a few nations to go 30 or 50 or 200 tax collections without ever getting one. In fact, in a sample size of 30,000+ nations it would hardly be unexpected. But the average nation should be receiving at least close to one event every ten collections, and while there probably are some who actually manage that figure I don't know a single one who even comes close. I've had 2, perhaps 3, events in the last year... I just recently received what I am fairly certain was my first in 6 months or so, and I don't usually tend to go long stretched without a collection. And that is not at all an uncommon figure among the people I've spoken to about this subject. It should be a possible but rare thing if the odds were really 10%, but it's closer to being the norm. I would judge the odds closer to 2 or 3 percent. Maybe 4.

Well if the odds of not receiving a single event in 190 days are less than one in 300 million for a single nation like myself then the odds of this happening even only once across 30,000 nations is around 1 in 100,000 - still staggeringly unlikely. But obviously there are many many nations who have experienced no events across even longer time frames.

Even a probability of 3% per tax collection makes the odds of not receiving a single event over 190 days less than 1 in 326. Still small but perhaps a more reasonable estimate.

[scibrad]

Is there any way we could possibly get admin response on this issue? Or at least some insight?

[ArgonV]

All I know is that I've had two events up till now: One because my nation was a week old and another one because my nation was two weeks old, so those both seem scripted to me.

[TheDave]

I have an event running now, I had an event expire 11 days ago.

When this photo was taken I had another two events running at the same time

Events do happen...

[Magicman657]

I have an event running now, I had an event expire 11 days ago.

When this photo was taken I had another two events running at the same time

Events do happen...

Just out of curiosity, was your government set as desired when these happened?

[Statalyzer]

The example with this coin is a poor example. If I grab a coin out of my wallet, I already know beforehand what the odds of heads are: 50% (or at least, very close to 50%, maybe it's 50.0031&, but who cares). With CN, we don't know beforehand what the odds of an event are. But we do know how many days have gone by without an event.

If the odds are really 10% of getting an event, that means that events as improbable as winning the lottery are consistently happening in this game.

[scibrad]

If the chances were 1% of an event occuring randomly on each draw then it is somewhat probable to get at most 1 event in 186 times collecting taxes.

The total prob of an even happening is 1%. N is 186. So the probability of getting at most 1 event is the sum of the probability of getting none and of getting one.

That is (0.99)^186 + 186*(0.01)^1 * (0.99)^185 = 0.44.

I could see 1% accidently getting propagated as 10% via a simple typo.

[JoshuaR]

Is there any way we could possibly get admin response on this issue? Or at least some insight?

It's more fun to figure it out ourselves. And then, depending on who we are, share it or keep the info private for our own members.

[Smallfrog]

Events do happen. I just got another 1.

-3 happiness

[joe87]

Would you complain if you were getting events every 10 days or so?

Yeah if they were bad.

I've only had one event, and that was 15 days into my nation's creation. 250 days without any events, cool sauce?

Show me these players who consistently get high amounts of events.

I'm more inclinded to believe that the event chance is a 1%

[Kingdom of Royalty]

As JoshuaR said the reason this whole thread is in discussion is because admin doesen't want to tell us, if he did, the game would be boring and lifeless, so I doubt you will get any clarification (other than guesswork by players)

[Decomposition]

I think that there are three things that we can probably all agree on:

1. The 10% figure is wrong

2. Event occurrences are not independent of each other - having had one increases the likelihood of another occurring in the next few days

3. Some nations have events far more frequently than others

Together this means that it makes little sense to talk about a single probability for events since so many other factors appear to play a role.

[SportsMaster]

I know, it's strange.

For the first 50 days of my nation: nothing.

The last four days: 3 events.

Go figure.

[Smallfrog]

If the general agreement is that it isn't 10%, should we remove it from the wiki?

[Guido]

This whole argument is moot. It's clearly not 10% because events last for 30 days, which means that the AVERAGE nation would have 3 events active at the same time ALWAYS if this were true...which it clearly is not since most people don't ever have an active event.

[Decomposition]

I agree that the 10% issue is moot since it is clearly not 10% but it would be nice to get some idea from the mods on when events occur since they are very clearly not random. Even very low levels of probability would not account for the clustering of events and the unequal distribution of events that are observed.

[Smallfrog]

Ok, as this has been discussed to death, and no evidence of the 10% put forward, I removed it from the wiki.

/thread

[JoshuaR]

I'm not so sure everyone gets clustered events. I know I haven't. Perhaps most do.

[Kingdom of Royalty]

My events have been clustered, but this has to suggest it isnt just a simple per-bill=payment probability system.