Mars Hotspot

[Wilcroft]

(27,87) is the correct one - thanks Jerdge! (Note that's positive 87, not negative!)

 

January 2020 URL segment: &lat=27&lon=87

[jerdge]

4 hours ago, Wilcroft said:

(27,87) is the correct one - thanks Jerdge! (Note that's positive 87, not negative!)

 

January 2020 URL segment: &lat=27&lon=87

Thank you for having remedied my silly mistake, positive indeed. Thumbs up!

[Rakul]

Good catch. Thanks you two.

[Oloros]

Thanks, folks!

[Rakul]

Welp.... I've tested:

Lat	Lon	Effectiveness
2.99999999	37	99%
4.00000001	37	99%

 

So, theoretically it should be:

&lat=2.99999999&lon=36

 

 

[Wilcroft]

Confirming Rakul's coordinates.

[Lysistrata]

Perfect! Thank you!

[Oloros]

Thanks!

[SirDog]

Thanks to the dedicated people that work this out every month.

[starschwar]

Last month's moon coordinates give a lot of results with <2% chance of success.  Let's pool our efforts!

 

Moon Locations Tested:
Lat	Lon	Effectiveness
33	-72	50%

[Wilcroft]

Mars Coordinates March 2020:

 

Mars Lat	Mars Lon
-48.00000001	-72

 

URL Segment: &lat=-48.00000001&lon=-72

[starschwar]

Thank you for your help. Will confirm moon data in other thread.

Edited March 1, 2020 by starschwar
Wrong thread.

[Lysistrata]

Thanks once again!

[Rakul]

Danke!

[Wilcroft]

Mars Coordinates April 2020 (for serious!):

Mars Lat	Mars Lon	Probability
2.99999999	36	100.00000%

 

 

URL segment: &lat=2.99999999&lon=36

 

[Rakul]

That's it, Wilcroft.  Thanks!

[Lysistrata]

Perfect! Thanks again, and you guys stay healthy.

[Wilcroft]

May (!?!?) 2020 Hotspot

 

Mars Lat	Mars Lon	Probability
69	176	100.00000%

 

URL segment: &lat=69&lon=176

 

[im317]

confirmed. thanks

[Rakul]

Thanks!

[Luna]

A 50% point strategy:

 

TL;DR:

If you only have 50% points, try these:

-45,  39

 45,  20

 

This is ONLY for the case where no points have been found with >50% effectiveness.  Otherwise just use the moon & mars hotspot finder google sheet.  As always, check the moon thread cause they may have found a >50% point on their end which also eliminates the need to use this strategy.

 

Here are 2 good points to try if only 50% effectiveness points have been found:

 

-45,  39 (mars southern hemisphere test point)

 45,  20  (mars northern hemisphere test point)

 

Do NOT use these points on the Moon.

 

If you try both of these points, it's guaranteed that at least one of them will be >50%, no matter where the hotspot is or what month it is.  Even if you're starting with literally zero information, 2 guesses is all it takes to get a point that's >50% and then things go fast from there.

 

If you already have a 50% point, try the test point in the opposite hemisphere first.  If you already have 50% points in both hemispheres, try entering them into the google sheet, eyeball which hemisphere has more possible hotspots, and try the test point in that hemisphere.  Or just pick the southern hemisphere point if that's too much work.

It's not the most optimal strategy, but it only takes 2 guesses max and doesn't require any extra math cause it's always the exact same 2 points every single month.

 

Note: Neither of these points are possible hotspots.  They won't come up 100%.  But if you only have 50% points, the chance of getting lucky and getting 100% is very small anyway, so it's better to maximize your chance of finding a >50% point instead which allows you to find the hotspot with fewer guesses.

 

More details if you're curious:

 

The northern hemisphere test point is the point in the northern hemisphere with the lowest chance of coming up 50% if you're starting with no information (42.97% chance of coming up 50%). It's actually tied with 9 other northern hemisphere points with the same chance of 50%, which are (48, 13), (47, 15), (47, 16), (46, 18), (46, 19), (45, 21), (44, 23), (43, 25), (42, 27).  Just pick one of the 10 northern hemisphere points.  There's no need to try them all.

 

If the northern hemisphere point does come up 50%, it actually eliminates ALL the possible hotspots in the northern hemisphere plus some of the ones in the southern hemisphere near the equator, leaving only 485 possible hotspots, all of which are in the southern hemisphere.

 

For the southern hemisphere I did something a bit different.  I picked a point with the lowest number of possible hotspots remaining if it comes up 50% (479 points remaining).  That's because the point with the lowest chance of coming up 50% (-45, 40 with a 34.98% chance of coming up 50%) actually doesn't eliminate all the possible hotspots in the southern hemisphere, so it doesn't complement the northern hemisphere point to form a pair of points that are guaranteed to produce a >50% point.  The point I picked is tied for second lowest chance of coming up 50% though, at 35.74% chance, so it's pretty close.  There are 11 other points that also have 479 points remaining if they come up 50%, and those 11 points also tied for second lowest chance of coming up 50%, along with 3 other points that are also tied for second lowest chance of coming up 50% but have >479 points remaining if they come up 50%.

 

If the southern hemisphere point does come up 50%, it eliminates the possible hotspots in the southern hemisphere plus some of the northern hemisphere points near the equator, leaving only 479 possible hotspots, all of which are in the northern hemisphere.

 

Both of the points won't come up 50%, cause that would eliminate all the possible hotspots.

 

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by Luna

[Luna]

Update for May 2020:

Moon & Mars Hotspot Finder

 

I'm trying something new with this update.  Through the power of protected ranges, the cells for entering test points (i.e. the ones in the two boxes surrounded by borders) are now editable by everyone.  Hopefully that helps with collaboration, since everyone can be using the same google sheet.

 

There's always the option of making a private copy (File -> Make a copy) just like before if you prefer that instead.

 

After you've entered your tests points (or someone else entered test points) give it a few seconds to calculate.  It may give strange results while it's calculating, but everything should be fine once it's done.

 

Let me know if you find any problems with the spreadsheet, or have any questions or comments.

 

The moon hotspot affects the mars hotspot a LOT, and vice versa.  In fact if one hotspot is found, the number of possibilities for the other one is reduced to 4 maximum (often fewer), and because of the skewed probability distribution, you can usually find the hotspot in 1 try.  So definitely check out the other thread.  Most people don't realize that the other celestial body affects them.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Luna

[Wilcroft]

June 2020 Hotspot:

Mars Lat	Mars Lon
59	154

 

URL segment: &lat=59&lon=154

 

[Lysistrata]

90% after the change, I was reluctant to spend the cash on the move.

I chose to go ahead with the move and I'm glad I did. Spot on once again.

Thank you so much.

[starschwar]

Here's some data from the moon - lots of ~1% results, but combining our efforts should help narrow things down.

 

Moon Locations Tested:
Lat	Lon	Effectiveness
-81	45	50%
-81	44	50%