[quote name='Callebaut' timestamp='1312321321' post='2770350']
Using exactly the numbers stated in the July update (the NG and TLR numbers are probably wrong, but I have no frame of reference), the sanction race had a net loss of 178 member nations. If you ignore NG and TLR, that jumps up to a net loss of 260 member nations.
[/quote]
To add some context, that's 3.5% of population of alliances in the sanction race deleting/changing AAs. Now if we assume all of these are deletions (because I failed to see many new alliances cropping up over the last month and who the hell moves to NONE anyways) and apply the 3.5% member loss to the 17,342 current active nations that means we lost approximately a net of 629 players last month.
Now for a bit of math. If you assume we will lose 3.5% of the population a month and use 17,971e^(-0.035x) you can chart the decline in population. After a one year period we will be under 12,000 members. And nearing 7,500 after two years. This does not assume there is a minimum number of players in the game cause some of those with a lot invested in will play till Kevin pulls the plug so there is likely some sort of decline flooring.
So yeah, you heard it here first. Math predicting the end of Cybernations.