I think Avernite's account of this issue most matches what I would post up to the period shortly following GW3. It was my impression, given what I experienced, that had NPO not approached TOP for an MDP (and later the WUT treaty) that it would have taken much, much longer for TOP to become an influential alliance. Sure, by the time WUT was formed TOP was a powerful alliance in terms of NS, but it was relatively quiet diplomatically.
I would also add that much of TOP's increasing respect and fame was from a significant propaganda effort by WUT alliances in the aftermath of GW2 and during GW3 when FAN and TOP destroyed Legion.