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Natan

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Posts posted by Natan

  1.  

    You're a moron. I am fighting people who all down declare on me and have been for a month and a half. They are just ill-prepared in the NPO tech slave program. I'm talking 2-4+ year old nations that are tech slaves to that upper tier.  If you are 1400 days old, still sitting on 100 tech and selling it, and declare on me, I have no mercy or cares. 

     

    And I'm calling Umbrella cowards because they have been their entire existence. I'm damn glad they are finally going to have to fight a few people larger than them so they can't just duck out after a round when they've 3 vs 1'd someone and hardly taken any damage.

     

    How is your alliance doing?

  2. I am shocked by all this owf posting, I was pretty sure you would still be in your bunker hiding from Bones ;)

     

    Wow, all you can do is threaten us with a single person who isn’t even under your control or influence. How powerless you must feel.

    We are not afraid of any single nation. If he, or any other, wants to attack us he knows where we are, no need for any baiting or trap setting.

  3.  

    If, by complain, you mean point out facts then I'm guilty as charged. I realise you don't particularly like facts when it comes to your latest war but they are facts just the same. If you prefer to dwell in a fact-free fantasy world then that is your choice, of course. By all means continue patting yourself on the back for your epic victory against the odds if that is what you need to do.

     

    Do not think I'm ignorant enough to believe you are pointing out facts without motivation. You are complaining our war was not "fair" enough. That my alliance didn't organize a war enough to your liking. That is what you mean by the jab in your last sentence after all. I don't live in a fact free world, I agree. It was very lopsided. It was a bit of a farce, that I concede.

     

    Unlike you however, I have planned wars. Some that we won and one that we lost (though ironically you declined to fight in that one). The reason I planned wars was because I had a particular vision for the game and for my alliance (much like yourself) and so the tools at my disposal (through leadership) I imparted my will on the game. You however, for some reason, decline to do that. You only complain. You heckle from the cheap seats. Despite being in a position of power (which for various reasons I am not anymore, to my dismay) you exert no effort to impart your will onto others. And so I wonder if the quote in your signature applies to yourself? Maybe it needs an update. Maybe the frequency of a player's whining is inversely proportional to the contribution they make to planet bob.

  4.  

    Not to mention illiterate as you cannot read the post two posts above your own.

     

    But whilst we are all being facetious I will help you out. It was an even battle between two evenly-matched sides in which pure military genius prevailed and forced the defeated side to surrender. You know, like pretty much every war in the history of the Cyberverse.

     

    Interesting. You seem very well informed and involved Mr. Tygaland. I am sure you will be instrumental in organizing the next war, which I trust will be evenly-matched and therefore a battle of the wits even greater than this.

  5. I suspect they care a great deal more than you think, though airing such opinions publicly isn't helpful. I have no horse in the race on the other hand.

     

    Well maybe if we keep STA in the war long enough we'll build up enough resentment to have some real opposition in the cyber verse

  6. I gotta disagree with you here mate.

    There's a big difference between going in overkill on an alliance, knowing with reasonable certainty that they have lots of allies and allies of allies ready to jump in that will make the odds more even, and going in when they don't have so many people ready to jump in on them.

     

    Everyone looked at the numbers and the chains before this war, so it's its disingenuous to just look at things right now in isolation.  And everyone knew it's be absurdly one sided.  I'm not saying all sides need to be equal, but I'd be very surprised if the ratio in this war ever gets less than 5:1.  Even even in Dave War, where MK concocted a ridiculous CB to attack people again that we had just beaten down the war before, the odds never were greater than 2:1.

    This isn't about MI6.  This is about how absurdly lame Oculus is.

    As an attempt to be the yearly global war, this war is a pathetic joke.  

     

    This is just a warm up. You're next.

  7. The problem people are seeing with Oculus so far is that it doesn't seem to attempt to establish an actual hegemony but operates more like an exclusive oligarchy that only acts in the interests of Oculus members.

    What fundamentally separates a hegemony from an oligarchy is that a hegemony takes into account the interests of everyone while an oligarchy does not. That doesn't necessarily mean a hegemony is beneficial to everyone, but hegemonic powers attempt to clearly communicate their position in such a manner as to avoid unnecessary confusion.

    What we have seen with Oculus thus far is a high level of unpredictability for non-Oculus members, reflected in actions like lack of notifying non-Oculus members or not clearly communicating a casus belli.

    There's nothing "wrong" with the approach Oculus takes, but it is destabilizing in nature and puts other powers ill at ease.

     

    What a time to be alive, welcome to the new politics. 

  8. Nuts to you, here come statistics!

    The probability of a successful nuke through an SDI on a single try is 40%. Not favorable, but not terrible. However, the probability of getting a nuke through in two tries jumps to 64%.

    1-(1/p(x))^n, where p(x) is the probability of a successful nuke and n is the number of attempts. So we get 1-0.6^n. I threw that into Excel to see the probability of a nuke landing in up to 10 shots.

    Rounded to the tenths as necessary...
    1 = 40%
    2 = 64%
    3 = 78.4%
    4 = 87.0%
    5 = 92.2%
    6 = 95.3%
    7 = 97.2%
    8 = 98.3%
    9 = 99.0%
    10 = 99.0%

    On the average, your nuke should probably get through by the second attempt. But the average isn't what we usually notice or get miffed about. We get frustrated with (or extremely grateful for) SDIs when they block nuke after nuke after nuke. So what's the chance of an SDI blocking n nukes in a row? It's just the inverse of above: 0.6^n

    Rounded to the tenths as necessary...
    1 = 60%
    2 = 36%
    3 = 21.6%
    4 = 13.0%
    5 = 7.8%
    6 = 4.7%
    7 = 2.8%
    8 = 1.7%
    9 = 1.0%
    10 = 0.1%

    A nearly 8% chance of blocking 5 nukes in a row is not negligible. In a month of war (1v1), it's all but guaranteed to happen to you at least once, probably when you're already low on nukes. But that's much preferable to 1v2s and 1v3s; in the last of those, if you're trying to nuke everybody everyday, you're going to run out of nukes. And the 5 block rock isn't alone; the chances of an SDI blocking 4 or 6 nukes in a row is similarly non-negligible and would require 1/5 or more of a full stockpile to land one damn nuke.

    This plays a huge influence in how each side fights the war and underpins macro-scale strategies.

     

    I can't wait for someone who really doesn't understand probability to reply to this
     

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