Icewolf Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 This is a debate that is taking place on the IRON forums. Namely the SDI odds seem weird. Globally, the SDI odds are about right-generally 60% of nuclear strikes are blocked. (slightly under-but some nukes are fired at non-SDI states) Individually, the odds don't match. We have one nation on a 20 nuke streak. Odds of 1 in 10 000 or thereabouts. Various other nations have very good streaks whilst others seem to get no luck at all. It all seems strange. Streaks are something you would expect to happen with the number of nukes launched. But they seem to happen too often for it to be purely chance. So my question is, is it always a flat 60% chance of a block with an SDI? I guess if it is not so Admin won't tell us how as he clearly wants it to be a secret, but it would be nice to know if there is a variable so stat nerds can start trying to work it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centurius Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 You are dealing with war where enormous amounts of nukes are exchanged, people brag about winning streaks and complain about losing streaks. However you don't hear those with average luck. This is just a matter of people on the extremes being more represented on forums than those in between the extremes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopherbashi Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 This is a debate that is taking place on the IRON forums. Namely the SDI odds seem weird. Globally, the SDI odds are about right-generally 60% of nuclear strikes are blocked. (slightly under-but some nukes are fired at non-SDI states) Individually, the odds don't match. We have one nation on a 20 nuke streak. Odds of 1 in 10 000 or thereabouts. Various other nations have very good streaks whilst others seem to get no luck at all. It all seems strange. Streaks are something you would expect to happen with the number of nukes launched. But they seem to happen too often for it to be purely chance. So my question is, is it always a flat 60% chance of a block with an SDI? I guess if it is not so Admin won't tell us how as he clearly wants it to be a secret, but it would be nice to know if there is a variable so stat nerds can start trying to work it out. Those 1 in 10 000 odds may not be entirely unrealistic - considering that there's been 30k nuke hits over the past month, and the war's been going on longer than that, we could expect that to have happened 3-4 times by now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icewolf Posted February 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Whilst 30 thousand may have been launched, that is only 1500 sets of 20. So I agree it is far from extreme to see it happening, it is not a high likelyhood either. I know that there are not likely to be many streaks of one or two discussed. its just that even a 10 streak is a 1 in 200. So with 3000 sets of ten we would expect to see only 15 over the course of the month and there have been more than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horo the Wise Wolf Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Whilst 30 thousand may have been launched, that is only 1500 sets of 20. So I agree it is far from extreme to see it happening, it is not a high likelyhood either. I know that there are not likely to be many streaks of one or two discussed. its just that even a 10 streak is a 1 in 200. So with 3000 sets of ten we would expect to see only 15 over the course of the month and there have been more than that.That's probability in a nutshell. Apart from your numbers being rather confusing, I highly doubt that there is a hidden factor (I mean, why?) changing things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centurius Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 (edited) Whilst 30 thousand may have been launched, that is only 1500 sets of 20. So I agree it is far from extreme to see it happening, it is not a high likelyhood either. I know that there are not likely to be many streaks of one or two discussed. its just that even a 10 streak is a 1 in 200. So with 3000 sets of ten we would expect to see only 15 over the course of the month and there have been more than that.That's a gambler's fallacy. Edited February 26, 2013 by Centurius Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyt2k Posted February 28, 2013 Report Share Posted February 28, 2013 I refer you to a previous post of mine "60% odds doesn't mean you'll hit 6 in 10 attempts Ever flipped a coin with 50/50 odds and got Heads like 20 times in a row?" I've been blocked like 6 times in a row and given up, then been hit by 3 in a row I've also hit 3 in a row and blocked like 8/9 thrown at me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krispy Posted February 28, 2013 Report Share Posted February 28, 2013 That's a gambler's fallacy. THIS /End Thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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