Kiss Goodbye
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Posts posted by Kiss Goodbye
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I would like to point put that this will be a 2 week conflict with TOP. After that they will have nicely organized our top tier nations into a nice tight pack with the rest of us middle tier fighters. I don't think this was really thought out all that well. I appreciate it though.
After that, they'll move on to the next set of targets in their range, and then the next. It seems pretty well thought out. Ratshole discussed it about five years ago.
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I'm coming back for one reason only: to remind those who were unaware what kind of person Steve Buscemi really is.
Many years ago, a certain alliance somehow found out about an internal discussion we were having. That discussion was not terribly aggressive but out of context it seemed so. As I was fixing it (by showing him the ENTIRE discussion), their leader admitted to me that a member of TOP showed him tailored screenshots of that discussion. I launched an investigation--all signs pointed to Steve Buscemi. He even appeared to be a part of them. But there was not proof, so I let it go.
At the eve of war, with TOP at the head of the Coincidence Coalition--Steve Buscemi entered peace mode against orders. No explanation was given. But he was a quiet member, so I let it go.
When we were caught unaware and trapped by our enemies during the BiPolar war, Steve lashed out at Crymson, and jumped ship, and joined the other side. I resolved not to let that go.Want to talk about grudges? Steve Buscemi was a traitor to us. But TOP did not hold a personal grudge against Steve for one reason: those who knew held our tongues. You were not worth the cost.
But we never forgot.
And now no one else will, either. Thanks for handing this opportunity to us.That is realpolitik.
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Those of you running your mouths and basically spitting on this document and any talks of "strategic victory" or any of that mess needs to be ashamed of themselves. Not a single one of you has room to talk about anything as you peanut gallery run your mouths.
RV: Stop being an idiot when you post. NPO doesn't care and hasn't cared about you, move along and cut out the crap.
I am now using the Emperor's retreat and I will see you all when my CN vacation is over. o/I imagine they're considering this very accurate analysis:
Long war is desired obviously. Who in their right mind would think a quick win is possible here? That would be completely delusional.
You can not do much in a short war, versus somebody like Umb, then just scratch the surface. In fights I had, I saw some big WCs, but also I saw a nice melt in them too. Time will do its thing. As well as the human wave effect.
What you bring out though, are political aspects of this thing, not statistical regarding upper tier combat. And I agree, political ones are the ones that matter. This is a political game. Managing to have a small island of upper tier nations, isn't crucial for this war. Politicking on both sides-- is. Realities on the battlefield are determined, smaller side doesn't have anything to hope for much here. It is/shall be defeated, but will produce cute banners. But post war world, is to yet be determined by in large and that now as the world we lived up to this point-- is dead.
I had expected this war to run significantly longer, honestly. That was well within Eq's power, and would've ground down the warchests of their opposition quite a lot more. I'll assume that the decision to end was based on spy reports suggesting otherwise though.
Separate note:
Given the many pages of hails from AZTEC, DT and Sengoku on the TOP front, I must assume my old friends have done their usual thing. TOP makes most of its friends by nuking them. Glad that hasn't changed.
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How could that possibly be?
Even if a certain number of high NS nations do manage to not only stay above the fray, but as well completely secure their position, they wouldn't be able to aid circa 95% plus of their comrades back to victory. That obviously cant work, due to odds here present. One side grossly outnumbers the other. Essentially, they become an island for themselves. In peace negotiations they can be a barging chip for the losing side to push for simple white peace, which even without that on DH fronts, is something that most likely is to occur anyway. The winning side will certainly be satisfied with pummeling what they managed to get their hands on, which is huge majority of the losing side.
I mean, I understand the fascination with high NS nations and their battles. Its a spectacle. Also, I understand the fixation with it, due to one side which is more forum active only having a fighting chance there. So we get to see some nifty propaganda pieces. But at the end of the day, what is here to happen other then what game mechanics didn't guaranteed for sure prior. No side managed to pull a miracle, why in the end this will go for the side that just has a bigger human wave.
Given the warchests present among the majority of the nations on the doomhouse side, a quick peace would be a huge error. You'd need to nuke away virtually all the tech on these nations to not see them just rebuy all the way back to where they were one day after the war. This would take many, many months.
Meanwhile, political realities would set in and the DH faction would likely be playing kingmaker between Duckroll and XX/SF in some future war.
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Last I checked TOP barely has people over 115k NS.
I would guess that they are making extensive use of other AAs. As they did in BiPolar. I wouldn't hold my breath to find out where so they could be counted though.
My curiosity is why anyone is on the main AA at all.
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If a hundred days bills is the standard, you are severely, severely underestimating a significant portion of CN (at least I hope). I know TOP isn't close to that standard at all, and I'm honestly disappointed if that is the standard across either side at this point in time.
By Dt's standard I'm over a billion short and I have 300 days bills (from my starting infra/money level, I had roughly 250).
I am probably underestimating the majority. I have no idea what other alliances' warchest standards are.
But it would be very interesting to see where everyone stacks up.
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Assuming immediate bill lock strikes me as awfully optimistic. It's pretty difficult to keep a nation in nuclear anarchy when the other side has the numbers and nukes advantages, and you yourself are in nuclear anarchy. Who's going to declare the next war? The "numbers game" is pretty simple, honestly. One side gets to collect out of nuclear anarchy, and it's not the side with the smaller numbers.
As for WC/aid, as has been previously pointed out, 60k is the same as 160k (or for that matter, 360k) so far as aid goes. If, as you propose, this war is going to be settled by aid, you'd think that would come down to simple numbers as well.
Not immediate. I'd guess most people have 100 days of bills or so (not really enough to fight a long war on even grounds). Some in certain alliances likely have much more; these will be the difference makers. Hopefully they are not ordered to waste their resources rebuying infrastructure in war.
The methodology is based heavily around not overdeclaring and instead running with 1 offensive war and 3 defensive wars, selecting targets to bring down one at a time (those with shortest warchests). Gramlins deployed this against IRON in Karma (calling it 'sniper' and the MK tactic of declaring on 3 nations at a time 'shotgun') and they were able to roll through the IRON upper tier in chunks, widening their attacks as more nations were put in bill lock (at which point they only needed to be sent 1 nuke per 5 days and the usual attacks which were unopposed). That may not be repeated here, if as stated some Doomhouse people are prioritizing rebuying all the way back to the top levels, rather than to the next level down on which they'd have a big advantage.
The only way to stop it is to keep people from being able to redeclare on their previous targets. After Doomhouse&Co secure their upper tier we may see some of them sell infra/land to declare down and widen the advantage as people exit peacemode, bit by bit. There is, of course, a lower limit on their capacity to do this.
At high NS levels, however, a net 1.5m/day isn't going to cover the bills.
But yes, as I noted previously the aid chains that matter most can be provided by nations well below this mark. That's where DH are critically misjudging: since aid hasn't progressed significantly, a 100k+ nation and a 60k nation are basically able to dish out the same amount of money.
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Equilibrium has over 50,000 nuclear weapons. Disequlibrium has around 15,000. That really is all that needs to be said here.
It really isn't, because you only need one nuclear weapon a week to keep a nation in nuclear anarchy and unable to benefit from collections. Once in bill lock, you and your nuclear weapons are dead weight, and DH nations are free to keep targeting you, expanding out of 'sniper' mode (3 defensive wars, 1 offensive war) to continue the bill lock. And nuclear weapons cost quite a bit to upkeep, as does infrastructure. Your folks can't sell their infra, either, because then they'd be out of range.
This is a warchest and aid chain battle, plain and simple. Nobody (on either side) seems terribly interested in posting their warchest spy results here, though. I see a lot of bluster in these threads from both sides without any of the important information backing it up.
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QFT....
I actually don't recall a war where changing flags was used as extensively as this one. I am still not sure whether it really makes any difference.
I do. 2010 BiPolar. It was the TOP signature strategy.
It's also why AI and IRON are so good at tracking it.
What many of us making arguments about 'the top tier' are missing is the purpose of a top tier. The purpose is to be able to drop 15m every ten days on smaller nations to turn them into large nations without any impact to the nation's growth. This is consistently achieved around the 60k mark. The game has gone on for so long without any substantial modification of the aid system that the difference in economic function of a 60k and a 160k nation is precisely zero. Hal is correct but didn't make his point as well as he could have.
No, what will make the difference in this war is how many nations on each side have the warchest required to maintain war at a high level of infrastructure with no effective tax collections due to nuclear anarchy for more than 180 days. And also how well nations on both sides are able to keep their peers from slipping in to peace mode to recover warchests and reload nuclear weapons. That does tend to be more common among top-tier nations, of course.
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its ok, they promised to come out of peace mode...eventually.
Shah, you were IRON gov when Liquid first introduced this plan to the 'convenience coalition' in 2010. You and many others should be fully aware of pretty much the entirety of the battle plan. -
You know, Timberland, I don't give one flying [REDACTED] about this war.
But it does make me sad to see you holding a grudge against our old friends.
Please think about letting go of whatever happened. -
I can think of no better topic to make a final post with my account on these forums. I kept it in existence entirely to say this one thing.
You make me proud, Yevgeni. I always knew you would lead us. -
Some of you know me. I've made some good friends before I departed this world and never got to say goodbye to you. I did so because I knew I could never leave if I tried to explain myself to you. Leaving hurt. My reasons are my own, they are selfish and more than a little motivated by my shame in my inability to stop the destruction of my alliance and my great failure to bring about the events that seem to have come around today regardless. That has taught me one thing. In the grand scheme of Planet Bob, [b]diplomacy is meaningless.[/b] What is right will always happen, eventually. Despite my failure to take advantage of the opportunities presented to me, what could have been now is. The fate of my own alliance is trivial in the grand scheme. I see that now and feel more at peace than I have at any point in the last year.
Some of you have only seen my name in a single TOP announcement that I was elected Grand Chancellor for a term. In that time I saw my fair share. I sought to make amends around the world for TOP. I think I had some success in this--at least, I hope I did. That was all blown away after I left, of course--I established a level of communication with both my own comrades and the leaders of my peers that dominated my life. It wasn't sustainable for me and it certainly wasn't something those who came after me could be expected to sustain. How then was I to respond when I kept getting queried: "It's not the same without you!" I realized I hadn't actually built a relationship between them and TOP, but one between them and myself. With me gone, so was that relationship. And when the consequences of that came crashing down? I left in shame.
Although I did always perceive the Mushroom Kingdom to be on the 'other' side, it wasn't because I thought TOP had some destiny to face them in battle. Yevgeni Luchenkov and I argued in favor of them at length and I do think we made some real strides forward on their boards. The leaders of TOP who taught and advised me during my tenure did much the same. I assumed we might fight, but as part of a conflict against Polaris...not directly against one another.
It was because they were allied to the New Polar Order. No other reason. How we were so foolish to lose sight of that fact and deemed them our great enemy and Polaris our savior is something many, MANY people have asked. How could TOP be so stupid? People were quick to blame Crymson. It's not his fault. It's mine. I got our membership so accustomed to regular updates of the entirety of CN politics, distilled for their understanding, that when I stepped down there was just a massive information vacuum left behind. I didn't even bother to share the information that I'd during my tenure on council.
Before I even was elected to run our foreign affairs, I was ruining wonderful opportunities for our allies. In the heyday of the Liquor Cabinet, the post-Sponge government almost started a war with FOK. I didn't even have to do anything--I could've idly sat by and watched the fireworks start. Yet I did. If any of the leaders of the time who remain in this world are reading this...I am sorry.
I think back most of all to the almost-war Kronos had with the Siberian Tiger Alliance in December 2009. I was at my worst that day. Our grandmaster and grand hospitaller were gone, and I handled the events of the day alone. It should have been war. It would have been a good war, much like today's war. I spoke to the leader of Kronos at that time beyond the mere confines of Planet Bob, and deep down I *knew* we should have stood and fought straight away. Maybe we would have lost? I don't know for sure. But it would have been a better war than the one we fought a few weeks later, alone, for sure. I was the one who capitulated. As quick as my friends were to apologize for the calling out my alliance received for my decision to pay the debts of an alliance who so wanted a real fight, I must admit: the criticism was true. I was a coward. We could have brought destruction down upon the world, maybe won, maybe lost, but instead I clung to my infra and let us fight another day. What a fool I was! To the leaders of the time, I am sorry. We could have been so much more.
Ultimately, my shame is that I had ample opportunity to set us on the right path--the path the whole world has embarked upon today. Instead my apathy--and cowardice--allowed our destruction. And I didn't even fight alongside my brothers for it. For that, most of all, I am sorry. I could have done so much more.
And yet it doesn't matter. I understand "Everything must die" is the new chant of the day? Perhaps my shameful legacy can be put to rest and I can have some peace at last. I almost didn't share this, but in the end, what are my thoughts but a howling in the wind?
Goodbye, friends. -
Syz you dissapoint me,
airing this in public does not help either you or us, especialy when you are so far from events
There is nothing dirty or wrong about this war, we were requested to assist our freinds in need and we responded to there call.
Given the last week or the last couple of months to re-do again I would make the same decisions for the same reasons, tho I'd probably take the Polar \m/ war more seriously over the weekend and have begun preparing then.
Honestly there was nothing else to do if Gre was to retain its independance of voice and action, any other path would have lead to us becoming a vassel or dissapearing completly
I don't think your friend is especially in need.
This is now basically a curbstomp. I'm not discussing the subject of whether it's deserved--that's a topic that has its own discussion elsewhere--but your entry is far from defending anyone in need, it's just assisting in that.
Had there not been a sudden peacing out everywhere else in this war I would entirely understand your actions. I recognize this decision was made before that fact, and I do hope you'll consider peace now.
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Did we do it right?
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Zessa, no matter what side someone is on, we can all agree that was incredible.
Bonus points for including Coursca, haha.
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Also, mpol, gun pr0n: where is it?
That was mostly what I was thinking after reading this thread.
This is my favorite of the collection my father passed on to me:
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I love you guys.
I know you will fight honorably. I salute you.
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Answer to your problem is clear: Never retire.
If only. I'm lucky to have time to be involved at all.
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Well crap.
Why is it that everyone I worked with stops loving eachother when I retire?
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Anyone who reads the OP as a Declaration Of Neutrality really ought to go and re-read it!
You know, you're right.
I just read a little bit more carefully and realized that they only said they wouldn't support Polar's side. They didn't comment on whether they'd back you folks.
Noted. Thanks for helping clarify that; I couldn't imagine NEW actually sitting out of a war.
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Counterpoint: Nothing about this war is fun.
Counter-counter point: For anyone who has allies on different sides, yeah. True.
NEW does not suffer from that problem as far as I can tell.
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What surprises me is that in the past, NEW leadership has repeatedly noted that they're playing for fun, not morality.
There is nothing less fun than being neutral in a major war where your allies all get involved and you don't.
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Lol, you have no idea what you're talking about. Who are you to be talking about TOP policy? You do realize you're talking to kriekfreak right? Stop babbling about things you have no knowledge of and leave it to the people who are actually informed like kriekfreak.
Tee-hee. I love you Epik.
Seriously though, Arrexes, he made it clear in his resignation post that he won't be applying to return anytime soon.
And we don't look kindly on members who leave to go fight a war elsewhere anyway.
Over 1/3 of TOP has not yet fought this war
in World Affairs (IC)
Posted
If there is one thing I do not miss it is the chanting of people on the opposing coalition to bring out enemy nations from peacemode during war, as if the alliance had not ordered them there for a strategic purpose thoroughly discussed within their coalition.
It's always been obvious that the nations were there for logical reasons--in top tier alliances like TOP the reason is usually that they have no money and would be bill locked immediately if they fought. In mixed or mass alliances the reason is usually that they are banks who are relied upon to relieve bill lock as needed. Sometimes it's both. The demands to come out typically ignore the strategic reality for an attempt at a PR hit. Has that ever worked?
What is bizarre now is that it is not coming from the winning side, but the losing side. At least those who were winning had leverage.