Crymson Posted February 18, 2011 Report Share Posted February 18, 2011 The SDI is broken. It rarely blocks 60% of nukes, and it sometimes blocks 10-15 in a row. The chances of blocking so many in a row is EXTREMELY low, yet it happens on a semi-frequent basis. In BPW, my SDI perhaps stopped one out of ten nukes. It has been functioning better in this war, however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baldr Posted February 18, 2011 Report Share Posted February 18, 2011 [quote name='Viluin' timestamp='1296928697' post='2620640'] That doesn't matter at all. If we look at 1000 random nuclear attacks involving an SDI, we can expect roughly 400 to be direct hits and roughly 600 to be thwarted. There is no need to look at each nation's individual percentage. In this case, the distribution seems to be around 50/50 instead of 60/40. [/quote] I'm not convinced that's correct. If I nuke someone and hit him on the first try, then obviously I stop, no more nukes. If I get blocked by the SDI, then I usually fire another nuke, and repeat until I get a hit. Once a nation gets nuked, the attempts always end for that day. And that would seem, to me, to skew the odds a bit, though I can't actually picture how. I see a lot of people who get quite a few blocks in a row and think "That shouldn't ever happen", and others who don't get any blocks for several days and think "That shouldn't ever happen". But it should. With thousands of nations being involved, there are going to be "runs" that take place. I also consider this to be fairly unimportant, since every nation is effected the same way. If it's 50% instead of 60%, it still has the same overall effect with no real advantage to either side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viluin Posted February 18, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2011 (edited) [quote name='Baldr' timestamp='1297999574' post='2637232'] Once a nation gets nuked, the attempts always end for that day. And that would seem, to me, to skew the odds a bit, though I can't actually picture how.[/quote] It doesn't. Some people get a direct hit in immediately. These people will lower the average blockrate. But at the same time another person blocks 3 nukes in a row. It all evens out in the end. [quote]I also consider this to be fairly unimportant, since every nation is effected the same way. If it's 50% instead of 60%, it still has the same overall effect with no real advantage to either side. [/quote] It makes a huge difference. A 60% blockrate will deplete nuclear stockpiles significantly faster than a 50% block rate. With a 50% block rate, an SDI and two spy attacks, a WRC equipped nation is only expected to lose one nuke a day if he is only nuking one opponent. With a 60% block rate, a WRC equipped nation is expected to lose 1.5 nukes a day. That's a 50% faster depletion of your nuclear stockpile vs 1 opponent. The percentage decreases for every new opponent you add, but it's still significant. If you look around, you will see tons of nations in this war that are still sitting on a bunch of nukes despite being at war for weeks. This is the result of the 50% block rate and it needs to be fixed imo. Edited February 18, 2011 by Viluin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myzebedeeistaken Posted February 20, 2011 Report Share Posted February 20, 2011 To me, the streaky nature of the results hints at problems with the RNG with everything else being symptom not cause. One seems to see this in other aspects of the game too (eg GAs and AAs follow similar streaky patterns although they receive a lot less public coverage and information is harder to collate). We're seeing 'outlier' events being documented exceptionally regularly and it does make one wonder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOMNOMNOM Posted February 20, 2011 Report Share Posted February 20, 2011 [quote name='Myzebedeeistaken' timestamp='1298228864' post='2639632'] To me, the streaky nature of the results hints at problems with the RNG with everything else being symptom not cause. One seems to see this in other aspects of the game too (eg GAs and AAs follow similar streaky patterns although they receive a lot less public coverage and information is harder to collate). We're seeing 'outlier' events being documented exceptionally regularly and it does make one wonder. [/quote] You may be correct. I've gotten 2 draws in a row on GAs (nothing happens), on 85% chance of victories. With Aircraft, I've missed 4 attacks in a row, despite my opponents not having planes at all. Blocking 10-15 nukes in a row just doesn't seem right-- it should happen in less than .5% of people with SDIs. So, what's wrong with the RNG? Is it a bad formula? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arch3004 Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 Perhaps it would be more accurate to just take the initial nuke attack on a given nation and not the subsequent attacks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viluin Posted February 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 [quote name='arch3004' timestamp='1298614551' post='2644517'] Perhaps it would be more accurate to just take the initial nuke attack on a given nation and not the subsequent attacks? [/quote] Doesn't make a difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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