Himynamistan Military Review

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[i]The General Staff of Republica Himynamistan Military Forces in session...[/i]

"The HAE will remain neutral. That's good."

"The local militias are able to hold down the fort in Morelos, now that we've gotten the perimeter defenses in place. That frees up troops for other theaters."

"What about AR? They support Tahoe. This could get messy."

"We're going to engage them diplomatically. If that fails, we have to face facts."

"Technologically and numerically, we have the edge. I'd just hate to see it come to that."

"AR wants Texas. It's a chance for them to redraw the borders if Tahoe prevails."

"Good point. The reality is that Texas isn't on the table. Not now, not ever. The same way the HAE isn't going to offer us Central America for a birthday present. It's a core province, and they'll fight hard to repel any threat to it."

"Diplomacy aside, what's the disposition of our forces?"

"22 active combat divisions, 6 reserve. Of those divisions, the reserve ones are 4 leg, 1 mech, 1 marine. Our 22 actives are 6 airmobile, 4 mech, 4 marine, 8 leg. All actives are combat-ready. Elements of 2 leg and 1 mech need refitting after Morelos, but shouldn't be too much. They're at 90% or better effectiveness. 1 leg deployed in the, uh, *former* Chiapas. They're mopping up the Stalinists, I'd say they're at 95% or above."

"Recently commissioned a new destroyer group in the navy. We have 8 mothballed battleship groups, but still in good fighting capability. It would take a short time to bring them back up to full operations. We've got the six carrier groups, of course. 2 on the Pacific side, 2 in Tampico, and 2 on Cozumel. If the HAE is neutral, the good news is we won't have to worry about them. The bad news is that we can ask to use the Panama Canal, but they can say no. Support vessels for the carrier groups are in good order: Each of the groups includes a squadron of submarines, destroyers, frigates, and cruisers for proper multi-role operations. We also have an independent ad hoc group made up of one each destroyer squadron, frigate squadron, and cruiser squadron stationed on the Pacific side for additional support. We have transport overcapacity for our marines and can have full force projection of that arm on either coast. Coast defense corvette groups are likewise active and in place. Just commissioned a new cutter yesterday."

"Air force is fully operational, and has been on high readiness in both the former Chiapas and along the Morelos border. Our fighters should have no problem with attaining air supremacy. We've got the technological edge over any combatant and are numerically compatible with or superior to any potential rival. Anyone that flies against us, we'll have no problems brushing them aside. The bombers will get through, and that'll be that for them."

"Air defense systems are go. Again, we've been on alert with the Morelos thing, so we'll just step readiness up a notch and be ready to respond. Our strategic forces are all ready for launch, should we need to respond. No first use, of course, but we are approved for massive second use. (laughter) Our SDI is as good as it'll be, but let's hope it doesn't come to that."

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"What are the possible scenarios we're looking at?"

"Several. The contingencies are as follows: HAE neutrality, AR activation, Louisiana refusal to allow transit over the former Chiapas, USA decision to not activate our treaty. 4 variables. 16 possibilities.

"8 of them are out because we're very sure the HAE will be neutral. If not, then the others won't matter, as we'll have our hands full with an all-out war in the HAE home provinces. So that makes things easy.

"Cut the rest in half because if the USA doesn't activate our treaty, we don't deal militarily. Chiapas would be for the discussion table, not conflict. That leaves a combination of 16 possibilities, which can be further reduced in that FRA or Atlantis activation against the USA would involve similar strategy and operational moves. They can be considered one and the same.

"We will overfly Chiapas simply because it is a direct corridor to the USA. If we were forced to not overfly Chiapas, the air corridor around Baja would not be insurmountable, provided the USA retained bases in Southern California. If we could not depend upon basing there, we feel HAE might permit overflight of Baja, given other concessions. If Louisiana refuses overflight, there's not much we can do diplomatically to change their minds. The facts on the ground are simple, though. We outnumber Louisiana in the region and can take control, if needed.

"If we have war with Louisiana, I recommend action against Cuba first, as our navy can blockade it and ensure supremacy for our forces there.

"This brings us to the Amerikanisches Reich. We have a treaty with them, as we do with Atlantis and FRA. I would prefer we not have to come to blows. Given our treaties, I see no way we can justify military entry into the AR, short of them attacking us. AR has declared to support Tahoe, and that would put them in conflict with the USA. We support the status quo: no conquest of AR - or Atlantis or FRA. Should their territory be threatened, we will move to defend them.

"I recommend we concentrate our ground forces on the northern borders, emphasizing the border with the former Chiapas. Retain four leg divisions on the HAE frontier and replace them with reserves as they are called up.

"I also recommend we negotiate with our neighbors. There's no reason current tensions have to be escalated."

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"We've called up the reserves and got the forward camps readied in areas of potential operations. Our forces will be at maximum effectiveness. Let's pray we don't have to go to war."