Jump to content

Mars Hotspot


Sande
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 867
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Ever wondered how the moon & mars hotspots are found every month?  I created a Google sheet that lets you enter coordinates that have been tested, and uses them to narrow down the possibilities for the hotspot location, and even gives you probabilities so you know how likely each one is to be the actual hotspot.  People use it to find the hotspot every month.

 

Get the latest version here (updated based on everything up to October 2017):

Moon & Mars Hotspot Finder

 

You'll have to save a copy (File -> Make a copy...) to use it.  And you'll have to give it a few seconds to calculate after entering your test points.

 

The moon hotspot affects the mars hotspot a LOT, and vice versa.  In fact, if one hotspot is found, the number of possibilities for the other one is reduced to 4 maximum (often fewer), and because of the skewed probability distribution, you can usually find the hotspot in 1 try.  So definitely check out the other thread.  Most people don't realize that the other celestial body affects them.

 

I update the Google Sheet most months, so be sure to get the latest version periodically.  The most important change is that I enter the hotspots that have been observed in previous months, and previously observed hotspots have a MUCH higher probability.  Also, occasionally the floating point rounding error isn't correct, and I correct that.  Smaller changes are changes to the probability distribution based on newly observed hotspots, and occasional elimination of possibilities (usually these are VERY low probability points that are eliminated).

 

If you're curious how I came up with the data for the Google Sheet: The list of possible hotspot locations is based on the fact that all the possibilities fall on a line (in the 4 dimensional space of moon lat, moon lon, mars lat, mars lon) .  I have code to determine the possible range for the intercept of the line, and then figure out what points can lie on the line based on the possible intercepts.  The probabilities come from a Bayesian model, which assumes uniform prior for all intercepts, and assumes the hotspots are chosen by picking a point on the continuous line with uniform distribution, and then rounding all coordinates to the nearest integer to get the hotspot locations.  Let me know if you want to know more or have any questions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...
  • 5 weeks later...
  • 5 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

Thanks, Galerion!  I was just getting ready to post to see if anyone had some attempt spots that needed testing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share


×
×
  • Create New...