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Moon Hotspot

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On 3/3/2017 at 3:06 AM, Chintan said:

lat=45&lon=-45 (9.0% likely to be the hotspot)

 

Confirmed 100%.  Thank you

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I guessed wrong, but got one of them close at least.    Suggested possibilities:

Moon Lat Moon Lon Probability
-11 -165 26.22060%
-6.99999999 -157 26.22060%
-6.99999999 -156 21.33819%
-11 -166 21.17333%
-11.99999999 -166 5.04728%

 

Values tried:

Lat Lon Effectiveness
28.99999998 -78 50%
-57 96 50%
-9 -161 96%

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I made several updates to the Moon & Mars hotspot finder:

  • Latitude -41 now corrects to -40.99999997 based on what we discovered from May 2017's Mars hotspot
  • 34 of the possibilities have been eliminated based on March 2017's hotspots.  There are now 1282 possibilities total instead of 1316.
  • Added all observed hotspots up to May 2017
  • Minor probability update

 

Get the latest version here:

Moon & Mars Hotspot Finder

 

You'll have to save a copy (File -> Make a copy...) to use it.  And you'll have to give it a few seconds to calculate after entering your test points.

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Moon location for July 2017:
&lat=-84.00000002&lon=38

 

Happy 150th birthday Canada !

Edited by Colin Myrhh
Canada 150

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15 hours ago, Rafay said:

Waiting for august

 

Try these:

&lat=74&lon=16
&lat=75&lon=17
&lat=75&lon=16

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14 hours ago, Rafay said:

Thanks a lot good sir.

 

&lat=74&lon=16   = 100% 

 

Thanks Rafay and Chintan. 100% is confirmed.

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Ever wondered how the moon & mars hotspots are found every month?  I created a Google sheet that lets you enter coordinates that have been tested, and uses them to narrow down the possibilities for the hotspot location, and even gives you probabilities so you know how likely each one is to be the actual hotspot.  People use it to find the hotspot every month.

 

Get the latest version here (updated based on everything up to October 2017):

Moon & Mars Hotspot Finder

 

You'll have to save a copy (File -> Make a copy...) to use it.  And you'll have to give it a few seconds to calculate after entering your test points.

 

The moon hotspot affects the mars hotspot a LOT, and vice versa.  In fact, if one hotspot is found, the number of possibilities for the other one is reduced to 4 maximum (often fewer), and because of the skewed probability distribution, you can usually find the hotspot in 1 try.  So definitely check out the other thread.  Most people don't realize that the other celestial body affects them.

 

I update the Google Sheet most months, so be sure to get the latest version periodically.  The most important change is that I enter the hotspots that have been observed in previous months, and previously observed hotspots have a MUCH higher probability.  Also, occasionally the floating point rounding error isn't correct, and I correct that.  Smaller changes are changes to the probability distribution based on newly observed hotspots, and occasional elimination of possibilities (usually these are VERY low probability points that are eliminated).

 

If you're curious how I came up with the data for the Google Sheet: The list of possible hotspot locations is based on the fact that all the possibilities fall on a line (in the 4 dimensional space of moon lat, moon lon, mars lat, mars lon) .  I have code to determine the possible range for the intercept of the line, and then figure out what points can lie on the line based on the possible intercepts.  The probabilities come from a Bayesian model, which assumes uniform prior for all intercepts, and assumes the hotspots are chosen by picking a point on the continuous line with uniform distribution, and then rounding all coordinates to the nearest integer to get the hotspot locations.  Let me know if you want to know more or have any questions.

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Try:

 

&lat=74&lon=16

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11 hours ago, Chintan said:

Try:

 

&lat=74&lon=16

 

10 hours ago, Mattmon666 said:

 

100%

 

Thanks guys!

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