Imperial Decree from the New Pacific Order

[Matthew Conrad]

Again stop crying.

Does the Pacifican Academy provide courses in irony and posting?

[Shadow Slayer]

At least they're not forcing you to disband. Look at it that way

[Ragashingo]

Stumpy, a wonderful summary, loled, its so true. except for one part

I think both sides are saying that, we each just have different definitions of "work it out." Karmas "work it out" is, were huge and winning, do exactly as we demand. NPO's "work it out" is were losing, but we cant do one of the clauses. Please make it possible and we'll accept and give you an extra billion.

Technically even a single one day old nation can pay 7 billion in reps. It would just take a long long time. Your alliance in an absolute worse case scenario would have hundreds of nations "one day old nations" but with improvements and wonders all of which will be able to contribute to the rebuilding and rep paying.

What they are asking of you might not be pleasant, but it is not impossible.

[Gryphon]

Nobody from Karma has yet responded to this post in which Cortath actually spells out the numbers he worked out.

It is unrealistic to assume that Karma will be able to inflict the maximum damage that is theoretically possible in those 2 weeks. However, I'd say that the conclusion is still valid.

[Cripple]

Stumpy, a wonderful summary, loled, its so true. except for one part

I think both sides are saying that, we each just have different definitions of "work it out." Karmas "work it out" is, were huge and winning, do exactly as we demand. NPO's "work it out" is were losing, but we cant do one of the clauses. Please make it possible and we'll accept and give you an extra billion.

Fair point. It may not look much like it from this topic, but we are discussing whether the terms should be altered. I have to warn you though, there's a lot of people in Karma who won't budge very far. If it truly is impossible, then it won't be asked.

However, I need an answer; it seems to me that given the massive warchests (which I mentioned last page) that many NPO nations STILL FIGHTING have (we're talking 250 million, typically) I'm not sure I can accept the argument that you can't pay straight away. Even after fourteen days of fighting, there should be enough spare cash to pay the reps (not sure about asking that the tech come from larger nations though. That seems like a kick in the teeth to me, one I'm not sure we should be delivering).

[Lord of the Port]

Others, on your side, have claimed that NPO members are disregarding orders to exit peace mode and fight the war. Take it up with them.

As far as I know, these claims are false. NPO nations follow orders, especially such orders.

[Valashi]

The above is a little image thrown in for my NPO economics folk. You should get it.

Many people have thrown out numbers in this thread about what we "can" pay. Here is my analysis.

Background

The economics is this:

300K tech from the nations who have 1K+. That's about 180.

7B or 233.33K tech from anyone.

At least 25K/month from the 300K must be given every month. And something like 580M from the money. That means about 34K tech, if you convert it to tech.

Firstly, what should be recognized is that you're creating two alliances, essentially. An alliance of 181 people that have to pay 300K tech, and the whole alliance that can pay the 7B/233.3K tech.

Getting to War

Before we get those lovely 2 weeks of peace mode, we have to get 90% of our nations above 4K infra out of PM, and 90% of our total alliance out of PM.

That means we can get 7 nations in PM above 4K infra, and about 70 nations alliance-wide still in PM.

This is mid-June. The New Pacific Order presently has orders for nations to be cycling in and out of peace mode as needed to lose nuclear anarchy. Many nations aren't following those Orders. Why? [OOC]Probably RL. Sometimes those of us who are able to up late at night posting on these forums forget that a lot of people are not able to engage in a war the way we want them to. It's June, people. Most schools are ending. Most colleges are ended/ending. Kids are starting summer jobs. Let's face it, most of the CN user base is in school or young and working.[/ooc] Achieving a 90% war mode rate is ridiculous. Karma's demand that we expel loyal members, some of whom have been around for years, who might be a little busy right now, is ridiculous.

But that's what we have to do to get to 2 weeks of war.

A significant point to consider also, is the number of ghosts in our alliance. While normally we are very good at removing ghosts, they're obviously not a top military priority. Ghosts frequently stay in the NPO, because most alliances are/were afraid to attack an NPO nation, even if it does appear to be a ghost. With an alliance as ridden with ghosts as we are, and that's not even beginning to consider any foul play that may be afoot, we have a lot of PM nations as well.

However long it takes, some things are certain: more nations will lose money, infra, tech, and land. More warchests will be depleted. Those nations in PM will continue to lose money due to the PM happiness modifier.

Two Weeks of War

Then comes two weeks of war for PM nations. Except it won't be just two weeks of war. Many of our nations will be in war much longer because as they get out of peace mode, there will be a lag from the time they get out, to when the "magic numbers" of 90% are hit.

Karma isn't fools. They prepared these terms, and I assume they're prepared for war.

We expect no less than 3v1 on our banking nations. Karma is 18 alliances on our front, and they can pick the choicest, elite fighters from their alliances to carefully plan and orchestrate an attack on a much smaller foe.

Assuming a single attacker at a high NS, with all the improvements and wonders such a nation should have, etc., etc., these are the damage estimates for such a war:

Nukes: 240 infra/day

Ground: 64 infra/day

CM: 32 infra/day

Aircraft 64 infra/day.

Multiple all but nukes by three and then 14. Multiple nukes by 13. Add it all together.

You lose 9,840 infra.

Tech:

80 from nukes.

16 from ground.

9.6 from CMs.

Do the same calculations, and your nation loses 2115.2 tech.

Land:

240 from nukes.

64 from ground.

Do the same calculations and your nation 5808 land.

So, let sum up war here. A nation at war will lose 9,840 infra, 2115.5 tech, and 5808 land. All nations but 25 will be ZIed. We will have two nations above 5K infra. Certainly, as one gets lower, the damage will lessen, but once you're that low, it doesn't matter much, from a rebuilding perspective. It's buying higher infra that is impossible.

Analysis of the Effect of War on the Ability to Pay Reparations

Alrighty. So an alliance of 700 odd nations now have 300K tech to pay from 181 nations, all of whom are ZI except 25, none of whom are banker level except two. We also have to pay 7B, or 233.3K tech, if you convert that to tech, but that can be from everyone.

Now, some people are going to claim "massive war chests." It ain't there people. 7 weeks of nuclear war, plus stints in PM, or for our banks, 7 weeks in PM, hurts those warchests a lot, even billion dollar warchests. Yes, some nations might have billion dollar warchests at the end of the war, but the catch has never been the size of the warchest, but how much you can send out. 18M/cycle just doesn't even take out a chunk of these types of reparations.

Generally speaking, when one has had to give out reparations or produce tech, that tech can be funded somehow, or subsidized. No can-do here, because the banks are gone. Smaller nations are also not allowed to sell tech outside the NPO due to these terms.

Now, again, generally speaking, people point to 180 nations, and say, oh look, you can just multiply all the slots by the nations over time and pay it off easy!

Here's the problem with that kind of thinking:

1. It assumes all 180 nations are active. Really, with programs like these, you can't expect much better than 50-60% activity. You know how I know? I asked the MK guys during negotiations how many nations paid off their tech reps, and it was far less than that percentage as a percentage of their alliance.

2. It assumes that every single slot will always be used, always. That's just ridiculous. There are very few nations on the Planet that manage that have all 4/5/6 slots filled every day, and we're no different. You lose efficiency from that.

3. It assumes that all these nations will have money with which to purchase and send tech, or just plain good ol' money lying around to send to Karma. Right now, we literally have 47 nations at ZI. I don't mean people with 100 infra, I mean people with 0.00 infrastructure. We have 402 members under 200 infrastructure, 511 under 500. You can look up the stats for yourselves, but we don't have nations who can either produce money or tech to send as reparations, particularly not when the Bank, which possibly could be used to fund a rebuilding/reparations effort, will have been destroyed by war.

4. Most Karma estimates I've seen presented only looked at paying off the 300K, or the 7B, but but not both at once. It would be a monumental task to do either one of them, but it's entirely a different story to do both, particularly given that they both come from different sources due to the 1K+ tech restriction on where the 300K tech has to come from.

Conclusion

The New Pacific Order seriously considered these terms. We went to the negotiation table about a month ago asking Karma alliances for terms to surrender. We went to them in good faith that they would present something that would be possible for us to pay. What was presented was not possible in anything less than a year at the best, most likely a year and a half. There's a range because there are ranges of slot efficiencies that you can make estimates for, a range of participation levels from your members you can make estimates for, and a range of damage you can make estimates for based on the 14 days of wars.

Karma did not give us terms we could possibly take. We presented them a counter-offer. It was more money and more tech than any alliance or group of alliances have ever received in any war, ever. It was more than the amount that they had asked for initially. Why they did not take that counter-offer, I could not tell you.

Look at that, math! Logic!

Quoted since it was done at 2 am...

[muffasamini]

As far as I know, these claims are false. NPO nations follow orders, especially such orders.

Actually, that is incorrect. Many of our upper nations have been requested to cycle out of peace mode, and have failed to do so. Is a major reason we cant accept these terms

[Ragashingo]

As far as I know, these claims are false. NPO nations follow orders, especially such orders.

Thats good to hear. I'd hate for you guys to suffer a leadership problem.

Now, given that all your member nations must check in once every so often, what's stopping you from issuing an order to get into war mode sometime within the next 20 days? After all, NPO nations follow such orders.

[Uncle Stalin]

As far as I know, these claims are false. NPO nations follow orders, especially such orders.

Oh really? What about the hundreds of nations that have deserted your alliance since the war began?

[shahenshah]

It is unrealistic to assume that Karma will be able to inflict the maximum damage that is theoretically possible in those 2 weeks. However, I'd say that the conclusion is still valid.

Corth's numbers are wrong because he is assuming only 2 weeks of conflict, there will be an unknown amount of delay before the 2 week timer kicks off, there can be 15 days of conflict or 25 days of conflict..or more. So his estimates are on a conservative side.

NPO isnt even kinda really rejecting the terms, they simply cant pay with those conditions attached :/ They're even paying more if they are allowed to pay, how often does that happen? Karma brings forth another change o\

Edited June 13, 2009 by shahenshah

[Haflinger]

As far as I know, these claims are false. NPO nations follow orders, especially such orders.

This is mid-June. The New Pacific Order presently has orders for nations to be cycling in and out of peace mode as needed to lose nuclear anarchy. Many nations aren't following those Orders. Why? [OOC]Probably RL. Sometimes those of us who are able to up late at night posting on these forums forget that a lot of people are not able to engage in a war the way we want them to. It's June, people. Most schools are ending. Most colleges are ended/ending. Kids are starting summer jobs. Let's face it, most of the CN user base is in school or young and working.[/ooc] Achieving a 90% war mode rate is ridiculous.

Read your IO, it's a terrific post actually.

[Twizzler]

Moo: Yo guys I got these terms from !@#$@#$ Karma and they are totally jank. I !@#$@#$ hate those dudes all they do is lie.

Moo: Oh !@#$, also Id like to give a shout out to my boyz in GATO... no hard feelings right? lol

Mhawk: I say good sir, those Karma blokes are very rude indeed.

Karma: OH COME ON

Pacifica: *Drool* o/ o/ o/ NO WAY JOSE

Karma: come on guiz cant we work this out

Everyone: BAAAAAAW QQQQ

Stumpy: I hate that Pacifica man they stole my house sons of !@#$%*es.

Everyone: ^ lol QFT

Karma: QQQQQ

Pacfica: No u

Karma: No u

Londo: I respectfully disagree, for I fear it is in fact no u.

Stumpy: *Getting crazy* MY !@#$@#$ HOUSE

Pacifica: YOU ARE AS BAD AS US... wait...

Karma: lol told you so

ODN: OH HAI GUIZ

Pacifica: No u

Karma: no u

NSO: I dont really know who Im rooting for but no u.

Karma: oh hai

Pacifica: ^ lol monster

Karma: SHUT UP YOU DICK

Pacifica: I may be a dick but who am I?

Karma: That doesnt make any sense.

Alterego: MONSTER MONSTER MONSTER

Karma: Not you again.

Stumpy: *Wild Gibberish* I WANT MY HOUSE BACK BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD.

Everyone: Stumpy you ok?

Stumpy: *bashes head on monitor*

Everyone: uhhhh k.

Corthath: LOOK AT MEH NUMBERS.

Azaghul: NO LOOK AT MEH NUMBERS.

Everyone: ITS A MATH OFF. ITS A MATH OFF.

Karma: Man your numbers suck.

Pacifica: No u

Karma: nou

GGA: no me.. wait Ill leave.

mhawk: Man you suck stumpy.

Stumpy: At least I dont suck

mhawk: Learn 2 math.

Stumpy: Learn 2 history.

/insert Stumpy and mhawk beating each other senseless.

Everyone: Lol look at all the pages.

James Dahl: PRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOF.

AirMe: lol k hur u go

James Dahl: PROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOF

AirMe: o________O

Stumpy: *Foaming at the mouth* I HATE YOU ALL DONT CALL ME A LIAR NEVER FORGET BAAAAAAAAAW

Pacifica: Wtf is wrong with him?

Everyone: We dont really know.

Alterego: Man I hate that TDSM8, those guys suck.

Mhawk: YEAH!

Karma: You dont know !@#$.

Pacifica/Mhawk/Alterego: no u

Karma: no u

James Dahl: PROOOOOOOOOOF

Everyone: SHUT UP

mhawk: no u?

Everyone: Oh God why are we still wasting our time in this !@#$%* thread?

Stumpy: I dont really know.

At least mine wasn't biased.

Although, I agree with the final two points of that.

[Stumpy Jung Il]

At least mine wasn't biased.

Although, I agree with the final two points of that.

lol Stumpy unbiased lol

[Nada2486]

Thats good to hear. I'd hate for you guys to suffer a leadership problem.

Now, given that all your member nations must check in once every so often, what's stopping you from issuing an order to get into war mode sometime within the next 20 days? After all, NPO nations follow such orders.

But what about the second problem? How will NPO ability to pay the reps and such suffer after probably 14 or more days of kick $@!?

[Cripple]

Thanks Valashi, that's helpful - I'll take it back to GR.

However, while I see your point about not being able to send out the cash from the warchests quickly, think about it this way; you can have every nation with over 3,000,000 send out as many offers of 3,000,000 as they can. Over time, this can be replaced by cash from those large warchests. In effect, it's still coming out of the chests, but indirectly, and much more rapidly.

Also, it would be unfair, given the magnitude of the reps, to demand that they be paid within a short time frame, so I feel confident that unavoidable tardiness will be tolerated to some extent.

Edited June 13, 2009 by Cripple

[Jens of the desert]

Perfect analogy stumpy, well composed and humourous.

[Ragashingo]

Read your IO, it's a terrific post actually.

Well thats amusing. I can respect that sometimes a national leader is called away from his country on business, but if the NPO has so many of its nations leaderless how can it ever hope to be an effective alliance?

[Valashi]

Thanks Valashi, that's helpful - I'll take it back to GR.

However, while I see your point about not being able to send out the cash from the warchests quickly, think about it this way; you can have every nation with over 3,000,000 send out as many offers of 3,000,000 as they can. Over time, this can be replaced by cash from those large warchests. In effect, it's still coming out of the chests, but indirectly, and much more rapidly.

Also, it would be unfair, given the magnitude of the reps, to demand that they be paid within a short time frame, so I feel confident that unavoidable tardiness will be tolerated to some extent.

I didn't do anything, I followed a link to that post and it was very insightful, since it was done at 2:30 am many many pages back I thought it prudent to bring it back.

[Nada2486]

Thanks Valashi, that's helpful - I'll take it back to GR.

However, while I see your point about not being able to send out the cash from the warchests quickly, think about it this way; you can have every nation with over 3,000,000 send out as many offers of 3,000,000 as they can. Over time, this can be replaced by cash from those large warchests. In effect, it's still coming out of the chests, but indirectly, and much more rapidly.

Also, it would be unfair, given the magnitude of the reps, to demand that they be paid within a short time frame, so I feel confident that unavoidable tardiness will be tolerated to some extent.

They've asked for 14 more days of war on NPO, think tardiness could result in more punishment

[dejarue]

Corth's numbers are wrong because he is assuming only 2 weeks of conflict, there will be an unknown amount of delay before the 2 week timer kicks off, there can be 15 days of conflict or 25 days of conflict..or more. So his estimates are on a conservative side.

NPO isnt even kinda really rejecting the terms, they simply cant pay with those conditions attached :/ They're even paying more if they are allowed to pay, how often does that happen? Karma brings forth another change o\

Assuming that nations in war mode will definitively take the maximum theoretical damage amount possible is conservative? Really?

[Ragashingo]

But what about the second problem? How will NPO ability to pay the reps and such suffer after probably 14 or more days of kick $@!?

I think they'll collect taxes. Pay bills. Then when they've (eventually) generated the appropriate amount of money and or tech they'll package it up and send it to whomever it is owed and repeat until their debt is paid off. Basically: The usual way.

Edited June 13, 2009 by Ragashingo

[Haflinger]

Well thats amusing. I can respect that sometimes a national leader is called away from his country on business, but if the NPO has so many of its nations leaderless how can it ever hope to be an effective alliance?

Note that a 15% out of town rate would be too high for these terms. "So many" usually doesn't mean "1 in 6."

[Cripple]

Oh, okay, but thanks anyway - it was a good idea. It should now get proper coverage.

[TypoNinja]

But what about the second problem? How will NPO ability to pay the reps and such suffer after probably 14 or more days of kick $@!?

Is a non issue because the terms include the concession that if NPO takes too much damage to pay the amounts can be lowered.

the NPO is balking because they are trying to figure out a way to get their banks out of the line of fire.

The point of the term is to prevent the NPO from quickly rebuilding. If they find themselves unable to pay (unlikely) then their lack of ability to pay was the goal in the first place and exacting large amounts of reps becomes unnecessary.

B2) Reparations of up to 300,000 tech and $7,000,000,000 will be assessed upon the New Pacific Order. This shall be determined dependent on their ability to pay after the aforementioned period of war, in the judgment of the Karma signatories of this document.

This is the bit the whiners keep glossing over, if two weeks of nuclear war does indeed reduce them all to nothing then they will have to pay nothing. Those numbers represent a possible maximum payment.