Spying DEFCON level

[TheGlyde]

Not sure if this has been brought up previously.

From the CN Information Index:

Change DEFCON Level (New level randomly chosen) = $150,000 + (5 x enemy nation strength)

The new level chosen, to me, does not seem randomly chosen, in my current wars, I have either done this spy attack or had it done to me at least 10 times, and every time that it succeeded, the new level chosen was DEFCON 4.

[thedestro]

It is random, for you it just happened to be 4.

At least it's supposed to be random.

Edited June 6, 2008 by thedestro

[TheGlyde]

That is what I am saying, it is supposed to be random but it doesn't appear to be, more than ten times in the past 10 days I have done this spy op or had it done to me, and every single time, it has changed it to DEFCON 4.

If it is truly random, the odds of doing 10 DEFCON spy attacks and it coming out to DEFCON 4 ten consecutive times is terribly small, something like a 0.00001% chance.

[enderland]

I've spied someone into Defcon 1 before, but that was when they were in Defcon 4 previously.

Wooot for increasing their odds to at least 5% to attack them again

[TheGlyde]

Hmm, interesting, okay well I guess some extra clarification then, for each of the 10+ times I have Defcon spied, or been spied in the past fortnight, while in Defcon 1, it has been changed every time to Defcon 4.

Has anyone else had it go from Defcon 1 to anything other than Defcon 4?

[Gebiv]

Every spy report I've seen changed a defcon 1 to defcon 4.

[admin]

DEFCON spying isn't quite random. I figured if you spied on an enemy at DEFCON 1 and put them in a random DEFCON of 2 that would pretty much be a wasted spy mission so the change is randomly hard coded (if that makes any sense). A nation at DEFCON 1 will go to DEFCON 4 after a successful spy mission. I'm open to suggestions if you think this should be changed.

[Gebiv]

My suggestion is that either:

a) the information index be worded differently Perhaps "New level systematically chosen" or something to that effect.

B ) allow the player to chose what defcon his opponent changes to, however, this could cause great abuse as you ally could change your defcon to one whenever you needed him to.

I personally find the former a better solution.

Edited June 6, 2008 by Gebiv

[TheGlyde]

Perhaps something like...

If spy mission succesful then:

10% chance it goes to current DEFCON level +1

20% is goes to current DEFCON level +2

30% chance it goes to current DEFCON level +3

40% chance it goes to curent DEFCON level +4

If the new DEFCON value exceeds 5, then it just goes to DEFCON 5

So;

- If your enemy is in DEFCON 4, if you suceeded, there would be a 100% chance it goes to DEFCON 5

- If your enemy is in DEFCON 3 and you succeeded, there would be a 10% chance it goes to DEFCON 4, and 90% it goes to 5

- If your enemy is in DEFCON 2 and you succeeded, there would be a 10% chance it goes to DEFCON 3, 20% chance it goes to DEFCON 4 and and 70% it goes to 5

- If your enemy is in DEFCON 1 odds as per above.

[Gebiv]

I like your idea, however, make defcon 5 change to 4. If you're changing someone's defcon before a war, you're probably just making sure they can't get to peace mode.

[greenansatsu]

Perhaps something like...

If spy mission succesful then:

10% chance it goes to current DEFCON level +1

20% is goes to current DEFCON level +2

30% chance it goes to current DEFCON level +3

40% chance it goes to curent DEFCON level +4

If the new DEFCON value exceeds 5, then it just goes to DEFCON 5

So;

- If your enemy is in DEFCON 4, if you suceeded, there would be a 100% chance it goes to DEFCON 5

- If your enemy is in DEFCON 3 and you succeeded, there would be a 10% chance it goes to DEFCON 4, and 90% it goes to 5

- If your enemy is in DEFCON 2 and you succeeded, there would be a 10% chance it goes to DEFCON 3, 20% chance it goes to DEFCON 4 and and 70% it goes to 5

- If your enemy is in DEFCON 1 odds as per above.

Personally I think DEFCON could randomly go up as well. If your at DEFCON 3 then there is an equal chance that you can be changed to DEFCON 1 as DEFCON 5. adds a little more randomness into the equation, and besides there are occasions you might want your opponent to be at DEFCON 1.

[iMatt]

Personally I think DEFCON could randomly go up as well. If your at DEFCON 3 then there is an equal chance that you can be changed to DEFCON 1 as DEFCON 5. adds a little more randomness into the equation, and besides there are occasions you might want your opponent to be at DEFCON 1.

I can't think of any time where I wanted my enemy to be at DEF 1. I think an easy fix would be to have a chance of going to any defcon, but a higher DEFCON has a higher chance of occuring.

So if in DEF 1, spying does this:

10% chance it goes to DEF 2

20% is goes to current DEF 3

30% chance it goes to DEF 4

40% chance it goes to DEF 5

if in DEF 2, spying does this:

10% chance it goes to DEF 1

20% is goes to current DEF 3

30% chance it goes to DEF 4

40% chance it goes to DEF 5

and so on.

This keeps the weight on the higher defcons, but still puts some randomness in there. Percentages can be changed, depending on how hard you want to make it to get a good DEFCON for your enemy.

[choop]

Random attack should be random.

Failure should be dependent on the actual outcome as well as potential thwarting.

Current defcon should be included in random calculations, so a successful defcon switch operation could have (randomly) no effect whatsoever.

[TheGlyde]

Random attack should be random.

Failure should be dependent on the actual outcome as well as potential thwarting.

Current defcon should be included in random calculations, so a successful defcon switch operation could have (randomly) no effect whatsoever.

I don't agree, the information index says new level randomly chosen.

A successful outcome should always cause SOME change to DEFCON, a failed mission should cause no change.

[schurick]

DEFCON spying isn't quite random. I figured if you spied on an enemy at DEFCON 1 and put them in a random DEFCON of 2 that would pretty much be a wasted spy mission so the change is randomly hard coded (if that makes any sense). A nation at DEFCON 1 will go to DEFCON 4 after a successful spy mission. I'm open to suggestions if you think this should be changed.

Is that what happened in my last war

So, if I am at war, it is pointless for me to go to Defcon 1, since my opponent can use spies till he successfully changes my defcon to 4 before inflicting massive damage. As I did not have a whole lot of spies on hand and my opponent had max spies, it was a guaranteed defcon 4 every time. I kept wondering of the "randomness" factor but thought it was just my unlucky break.

IMHO that is a huge door for abuse, if it is a guaranteed defcon 4 on success from defcon 1. And since I always had to change my defcon from 4 from the prior day to 1 and then got spied on, which obviously results in me not being able to change my defcon again for the day.

So, defcon basically becomes useless once someone successfully spies and changes it for you

[choop]

victory in any single battle is never guaranteed. ever.

[schurick]

you are right, not guaranteed, but he had really really good odds.

[GreeDy]

DEFCON spying isn't quite random. I figured if you spied on an enemy at DEFCON 1 and put them in a random DEFCON of 2 that would pretty much be a wasted spy mission so the change is randomly hard coded (if that makes any sense). A nation at DEFCON 1 will go to DEFCON 4 after a successful spy mission. I'm open to suggestions if you think this should be changed.

well... a wasted spy mission would be a 'complete failure' mission.. changing the DEFCON randomly, be it 1 up or 1 down from where it was, would just be a chance. Just like it doing anything at all is a chance.

Also, as most people here I'd assume, I know nothing of coding but couldn't you just add a clause that would say something like if the new defcon is the same as the old, redo it, and if you don't want the defcon to go just by 1, set it so that it the new defcon is equal to the old defcon + or - 1 redo the function.

Edited June 14, 2008 by GreeDy

[Experimentum]

OBR determined back in February that all DEFCON changes due to Spy Attacks follow a standard pattern ending in one of three possible results. Go do the research according to standard scientific procedure and you'll nail it too.

[schurick]

defcon 4, defcon 1 or no change?