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Event Statistics


King Irwin
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Has anyone determined the likelihood of an event, and the likelihood of the event being positive vs. negative?

I believe they are randomly generated at every tax collection, so I'm wondering what the consequence of collecting taxes more or less frequently are.

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They are random. I do not think your odds of having one correlate with how many times you collect. I went about 6 months without one. Then saved for a wonder and got the same one 3 times in 4 days. (TG it was a good one) I n any case, i wouldn't worry too much about events as they will not effect you too bad and you can always wait them out if you get a bad one.

Edited by commander thrawn
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They are random. I do not think your odds of having one correlate with how many times you collect. I went about 6 months without one. Then saved for a wonder and got the same one 3 times in 4 days. (TG it was a good one) I n any case, i wouldn't worry too much about events as they will not effect you too bad and you can always wait them out if you get a bad one.

speak for yourself.. lol.. it sucks getting abad.. one... u get pushed back soo far :-d

ps: if oyu lc swap.. it is LES LIKELY to get an event.. because u only collect taxes o so many times

Ex:

Day 1 collect= lets say 5% chance

Day 2 collect= 5% chance

Day 3 collect= 5% chance again..

so on soo forth... and u get that 5% chance ever day u collect.. without it adding up..

so lc swap..

day 1... nothing

day 2 notihn.g..

.

.

.

.

.

day 7 5% chance when collected..

less liely to have it if u dont collect.. ;-D

but yea.. bad events KILL me.. :(

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Yeah, its a 10% chance each time you collect, so if you collect one day out of 19 then you will have a that 10% chance to get an event during that timeframe, whereas if you collected everyday in the 19, the likelihood of getting an event is quite high during the time period.

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Yeah, its a 10% chance each time you collect, so if you collect one day out of 19 then you will have a that 10% chance to get an event during that timeframe, whereas if you collected everyday in the 19, the likelihood of getting an event is quite high during the time period.

10% is definitely wrong! We have had extensive statistical discussions on this a while back and our conclusion was that the chance of getting an event is closer to 1% for every tax collection although there is also evidence that they tend to "clump together" - that is, they tend to occur one after the other. Some nations also get more than others - and the difference is much bigger than what you would expect by chance.

I went the first 200 odd days of my nation without an event - impossible to occur if the chance is 10%.

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10% is definitely wrong! We have had extensive statistical discussions on this a while back and our conclusion was that the chance of getting an event is closer to 1% for every tax collection although there is also evidence that they tend to "clump together" - that is, they tend to occur one after the other. Some nations also get more than others - and the difference is much bigger than what you would expect by chance.

I went the first 200 odd days of my nation without an event - impossible to occur if the chance is 10%.

i wouldnt jump to conclusions asap..

During the first 365 days of my nation.. i got about 15-18 something events... good and bad.. and crappy.. lol

During the lassed 300 or so years of my nation now.. since i started lc swapping i think ive gotten maybe about 4-5 sooo yea.. i wouldnt jump to conclusion about less than 1% chance.. i beliee its more than that..

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i wouldnt jump to conclusions asap..

During the first 365 days of my nation.. i got about 15-18 something events... good and bad.. and crappy.. lol

During the lassed 300 or so years of my nation now.. since i started lc swapping i think ive gotten maybe about 4-5 sooo yea.. i wouldnt jump to conclusion about less than 1% chance.. i beliee its more than that..

Lol - I (we) did not "jump to conclusions" but based it on some basic statistical analysis (binomial theory). The original thread is here:

http://forums.cybernations.net/index.php?showtopic=13446

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Lol - I (we) did not "jump to conclusions" but based it on some basic statistical analysis (binomial theory). The original thread is here:

http://forums.cybernations.net/index.php?showtopic=13446

The previous discussion was an interesting one, but it still leaves a couple questions in my mind. First, I don't think that anyone can really determine what the probability is, because the only people that post tend to be on a far end of the spectrum (either "My nation has been around since 1962, and I still don't have an event!", or "I just got 300 events, today!"...and yes, I'm obviously exaggerating). Don't get me wrong, I don't disagree with your premise that a true 10% probability is virtually proven to be incorrect. It just seems that no one will be able to get a great idea of what the probability really is, based on posters in these threads (especially since it may very well not be truly random, but rather weighted based on some unknown factors).

Now, more importantly, it seems that no one has answered my original question...are more events good or bad? I don't care as much about how likely they are to occur, if I don't know if a high probability is a positive or negative thing for my nation. I'm guessing by the lack of an answer that no one has yet determined this.

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From my experience (with my previous nation) there are more good than bad events. It may also be that these are not distributed randomly i.e., that there are some nation factors that make it more or less likely that you get a good event (assuming you get them at all). No evidence regarding this hypothesis though.

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are more events good or bad?

I think there are more bad events than good events. Or at least, that's the way it seemed when my nation was new and I collected everyday. I think 5-10% chance of an event at collection is a reasonable assumption.

Although the recent events I had were awesome. I had a +15% pop event and a +3 happiness event both at the same time awesome.gif

Edited by Ivegottheskill
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Now, more importantly, it seems that no one has answered my original question...are more events good or bad? I don't care as much about how likely they are to occur, if I don't know if a high probability is a positive or negative thing for my nation. I'm guessing by the lack of an answer that no one has yet determined this.

I believe there is an even number of both "good" and "bad", but that's not the whole story. When you get a bad event you get a chance to pick the best option, and same with the Good event. So if we assume everyone picks the best option, then events on the whole are good.

Edited by imatt15
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