King Irwin Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 Has anyone determined the likelihood of an event, and the likelihood of the event being positive vs. negative? I believe they are randomly generated at every tax collection, so I'm wondering what the consequence of collecting taxes more or less frequently are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
commander thrawn Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 (edited) They are random. I do not think your odds of having one correlate with how many times you collect. I went about 6 months without one. Then saved for a wonder and got the same one 3 times in 4 days. (TG it was a good one) I n any case, i wouldn't worry too much about events as they will not effect you too bad and you can always wait them out if you get a bad one. Edited March 14, 2008 by commander thrawn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sayton Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 They are random. I do not think your odds of having one correlate with how many times you collect. I went about 6 months without one. Then saved for a wonder and got the same one 3 times in 4 days. (TG it was a good one) I n any case, i wouldn't worry too much about events as they will not effect you too bad and you can always wait them out if you get a bad one. speak for yourself.. lol.. it sucks getting abad.. one... u get pushed back soo far :-d ps: if oyu lc swap.. it is LES LIKELY to get an event.. because u only collect taxes o so many times Ex: Day 1 collect= lets say 5% chance Day 2 collect= 5% chance Day 3 collect= 5% chance again.. so on soo forth... and u get that 5% chance ever day u collect.. without it adding up.. so lc swap.. day 1... nothing day 2 notihn.g.. . . . . . day 7 5% chance when collected.. less liely to have it if u dont collect.. ;-D but yea.. bad events KILL me.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForPointSix Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 All I have seen is bad ones!!!! Flooding and droughts at the same time!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emperor Badger Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 All I have seen is bad ones!!!! Flooding and droughts at the same time!!! Floods and droughts? :lol: I have heard that the chance of getting an event is 10% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForPointSix Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 10% my rear!!!! I just got out of a bad event the same day the drought one got me...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RossGarner Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 Yeah, its a 10% chance each time you collect, so if you collect one day out of 19 then you will have a that 10% chance to get an event during that timeframe, whereas if you collected everyday in the 19, the likelihood of getting an event is quite high during the time period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grenlif Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 If you get back to back events, do they add up the effects? For example in ForPointSix's case, his total income loss is $10 and land -15% or is it only -$5 (most recent event)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeJeezy Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 oh, they add up alright Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Decomposition Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 Yeah, its a 10% chance each time you collect, so if you collect one day out of 19 then you will have a that 10% chance to get an event during that timeframe, whereas if you collected everyday in the 19, the likelihood of getting an event is quite high during the time period. 10% is definitely wrong! We have had extensive statistical discussions on this a while back and our conclusion was that the chance of getting an event is closer to 1% for every tax collection although there is also evidence that they tend to "clump together" - that is, they tend to occur one after the other. Some nations also get more than others - and the difference is much bigger than what you would expect by chance. I went the first 200 odd days of my nation without an event - impossible to occur if the chance is 10%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sayton Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 10% is definitely wrong! We have had extensive statistical discussions on this a while back and our conclusion was that the chance of getting an event is closer to 1% for every tax collection although there is also evidence that they tend to "clump together" - that is, they tend to occur one after the other. Some nations also get more than others - and the difference is much bigger than what you would expect by chance.I went the first 200 odd days of my nation without an event - impossible to occur if the chance is 10%. i wouldnt jump to conclusions asap.. During the first 365 days of my nation.. i got about 15-18 something events... good and bad.. and crappy.. lol During the lassed 300 or so years of my nation now.. since i started lc swapping i think ive gotten maybe about 4-5 sooo yea.. i wouldnt jump to conclusion about less than 1% chance.. i beliee its more than that.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Decomposition Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 i wouldnt jump to conclusions asap..During the first 365 days of my nation.. i got about 15-18 something events... good and bad.. and crappy.. lol During the lassed 300 or so years of my nation now.. since i started lc swapping i think ive gotten maybe about 4-5 sooo yea.. i wouldnt jump to conclusion about less than 1% chance.. i beliee its more than that.. Lol - I (we) did not "jump to conclusions" but based it on some basic statistical analysis (binomial theory). The original thread is here: http://forums.cybernations.net/index.php?showtopic=13446 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingdom of Royalty Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 It is amazing some people think it is 10%, anyhow, whatever it is, it is also simply not a random chance upon tax collection/bill payment (whatever). There is something that causes clustered events too. Not that it is that important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForPointSix Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 I was only collecting every 2 days. I was saving for my 3K jump and was thinking may as well make the extra $10,000 for every other day. But talking with other people they do seem to clump up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Irwin Posted March 15, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Lol - I (we) did not "jump to conclusions" but based it on some basic statistical analysis (binomial theory). The original thread is here:http://forums.cybernations.net/index.php?showtopic=13446 The previous discussion was an interesting one, but it still leaves a couple questions in my mind. First, I don't think that anyone can really determine what the probability is, because the only people that post tend to be on a far end of the spectrum (either "My nation has been around since 1962, and I still don't have an event!", or "I just got 300 events, today!"...and yes, I'm obviously exaggerating). Don't get me wrong, I don't disagree with your premise that a true 10% probability is virtually proven to be incorrect. It just seems that no one will be able to get a great idea of what the probability really is, based on posters in these threads (especially since it may very well not be truly random, but rather weighted based on some unknown factors). Now, more importantly, it seems that no one has answered my original question...are more events good or bad? I don't care as much about how likely they are to occur, if I don't know if a high probability is a positive or negative thing for my nation. I'm guessing by the lack of an answer that no one has yet determined this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Decomposition Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 From my experience (with my previous nation) there are more good than bad events. It may also be that these are not distributed randomly i.e., that there are some nation factors that make it more or less likely that you get a good event (assuming you get them at all). No evidence regarding this hypothesis though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Witz Posted March 16, 2008 Report Share Posted March 16, 2008 (edited) are more events good or bad? I think there are more bad events than good events. Or at least, that's the way it seemed when my nation was new and I collected everyday. I think 5-10% chance of an event at collection is a reasonable assumption. Although the recent events I had were awesome. I had a +15% pop event and a +3 happiness event both at the same time Edited March 16, 2008 by Ivegottheskill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iMatt Posted March 16, 2008 Report Share Posted March 16, 2008 (edited) Now, more importantly, it seems that no one has answered my original question...are more events good or bad? I don't care as much about how likely they are to occur, if I don't know if a high probability is a positive or negative thing for my nation. I'm guessing by the lack of an answer that no one has yet determined this. I believe there is an even number of both "good" and "bad", but that's not the whole story. When you get a bad event you get a chance to pick the best option, and same with the Good event. So if we assume everyone picks the best option, then events on the whole are good. Edited March 16, 2008 by imatt15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Brendan Posted March 24, 2008 Report Share Posted March 24, 2008 All I have seen is bad ones!!!! Flooding and droughts at the same time!!! I find that highly amusing. As for Good events to Bad events, I've had one negative event (drought, several months ago) and three positive events (all currently in effect ). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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