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Nuke Streakness


Rhizoctonia

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I know there was a topic about this earlier, and this isn't about a situation where 20+ got shot down in a row....but I'd at least like to ask if there's still possibly something going on.  This has been going on since the war broke out.  Most my opponents I'd say 60-75% of the time hit on their first time, I just did some quick adding up of my nuking and I'm at 40/120 being successful (40 hits, 80 thawarts).  This likely would be much higher if I had more nukes, but since my rate is so low I've run out of nukes on most occasions without one hitting so my percentage would probably be much worse.  I don't even think I've had a spied nuke in any of my wars to make my amount of nukes lower.  

 

Maybe I've had one of the worst luck in this game while my last opponents have had all the luck.  But just seems odd so wanted to ask.  If there's nothing going on, so be it, but everyday it's the same thing.  

 

Case in point, i've gone 2 for the last 12 nukes with hits....again likely would be worse had I not run out everytime

Edited by Rhizoctonia
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35 minutes ago, Rhizoctonia said:

I know there was a topic about this earlier, and this isn't about a situation where 20+ got shot down in a row....but I'd at least like to ask if there's still possibly something going on.  This has been going on since the war broke out.  Most my opponents I'd say 60-75% of the time hit on their first time, I just did some quick adding up of my nuking and I'm at 40/120 being successful (40 hits, 80 thawarts).  This likely would be much higher if I had more nukes, but since my rate is so low I've run out of nukes on most occasions without one hitting so my percentage would probably be much worse.  I don't even think I've had a spied nuke in any of my wars to make my amount of nukes lower.  

 

Maybe I've had one of the worst luck in this game while my last opponents have had all the luck.  But just seems odd so wanted to ask.  If there's nothing going on, so be it, but everyday it's the same thing.  

 

Case in point, i've gone 2 for the last 12 nukes with hits....again likely would be worse had I not run out everytime

Of 120 nukes against SDI equipped targets you should expect around 48 hits and 72 misses, 40-80 isn't very far off that.

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I'm experiencing similar odds disparity against opponents.

In my last 3 wars there have been 0-5 intercepts before a hit.  Successful attacks against opponents were 14/37

Successful attacks against me were 

6/7

 

In my current war, my opponent has had 4/10 successful attempt.

I have had 4/20?, and possibly more except I ran out of nukes today.  The ? assumes my next attempt would have been successful.  I had 3 in a row intercepted before running out.

Edited by New Reverie
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I wonder if the answer here is to switch from 40/60 hits/misses to 50/50 or even 55/45.

 

It would reduce the chances of long streaks of misses, which I think is the biggest criticism. The luck of the draw can cause you to use all your nukes in a couple days while your opponent nukes you every day. 

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  • 4 weeks later...
1 hour ago, Bionic redhead said:

I did the maths on this and since the 5th of August my SDI has stopped a meagre 57% (45 out of 79) of nukes thrown at me. However the myriad SDIs of my victims opponents have stopped an even more underwhelming 50% (58 out of 116).

 

So much for two-thirds.

As I mentioned earlier the sdi has 60% odds.  Whether the odds are in your favour or your opponents is basically a roll of the dice in that regard. 

 

This is a game after all, and most games are based on luck.  Games like chess, checkers etc..  are purely skill based.  

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