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Nation count within CN and trends

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We're probably going to drop below 4000 nations within the next 2 weeks, the count is currently at 4011 active nations. Its also that time again where every 2 years I look at the trend data and try to predict CNs future and end date.

 

Lets start with my previous predictions:

 

Quote

 

So what am I predicting now? We will fall below 5000 by mid 2017, I'd say the earliest the game could end is Dec 2017, and I'm placing a max shelf life of Jan 2021, at which point we will almost certainly be below 2000, likely even 1000.

 

We did indeed fall below 5000 players in that time range, but we trended worse than expected, which does not bode well for the game.

 

Let's take a look at the player count over time, the dataset I have is somewhat in complete, but it paints the picture we need.

 

 

2wnwk12.jpg

 

The current nation count is the lowest I have on record, lower than even my data points in 2006. What does this mean for CN? Lets look at the tail end, the last 6 or so years, and try to project when cn will end.

 

 

ok38lt.jpg

 

The colored ranges represent the zone of possibility for cn if trends continue. Absolute worst case cn could be finished as early as early as the end of 2018, best case 2024, where ending is dropping below 1000 nations. My guess is we will hit 1000 sometime between Aug of 2020 and Jan of 2021, assuming the game is allowed to run this long. If 1000 is the cutoff, the game will probably not last more than a few months past 2021. If however 2000 nations is the cutoff, we could see the end by late 2019.

 

 

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Well in truth how many of those 40k nations was mutis ?.

Even now i bet most of the what 580 nations that has signed up from 10th Dec to now are fake accounts or muti's bet none of them are new players at all.

Even the Admin has given up on cybernation i do not for see it lasting another year.

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here have some more data points

 

07/21/11 - 17,525 Nations
09/15/11 - 16,777 Nations
10/11/11 - 16,125 Nations
12/14/11 - 15,883 Nations
02/17/12 - 15,070 Nations
03/16/12 - 14,776 Nations
05/12/12 - 14,357 Nations
06/18/12 - 13,856 Nations
07/22/12 - 13,385 Nations
09/09/12 - 12,603 Nations
11/04/12 - 12,307 Nations
01/18/13 - 12,930 Nations
02/21/13 - 12,286 Nations
03/31/13 - 11,969 Nations
06/16/13 - 11,491 Nations
09/21/13 - 10,783 Nations
12/15/13 - 10,275 Nations
07/03/14 - 9,944 Nations
10/19/14 - 9,586 Nations
01/18/15 - 9,087 Nations
02/22/15 - 8,979 Nations
06/17/15 - 8,300 Nations
07/30/15 - 7,810 Nations
10/18/15 - 7,388 Nations
12/08/15 - 7,115 Nations
4/25/16 - 6,773 Nations
6/22/16 - 6,445 Nations

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22 hours ago, im317 said:

here have some more data points

 

07/21/11 - 17,525 Nations
09/15/11 - 16,777 Nations
10/11/11 - 16,125 Nations
12/14/11 - 15,883 Nations
02/17/12 - 15,070 Nations
03/16/12 - 14,776 Nations
05/12/12 - 14,357 Nations
06/18/12 - 13,856 Nations
07/22/12 - 13,385 Nations
09/09/12 - 12,603 Nations
11/04/12 - 12,307 Nations
01/18/13 - 12,930 Nations
02/21/13 - 12,286 Nations
03/31/13 - 11,969 Nations
06/16/13 - 11,491 Nations
09/21/13 - 10,783 Nations
12/15/13 - 10,275 Nations
07/03/14 - 9,944 Nations
10/19/14 - 9,586 Nations
01/18/15 - 9,087 Nations
02/22/15 - 8,979 Nations
06/17/15 - 8,300 Nations
07/30/15 - 7,810 Nations
10/18/15 - 7,388 Nations
12/08/15 - 7,115 Nations
4/25/16 - 6,773 Nations
6/22/16 - 6,445 Nations

Ohh nice, thanks for that. Just added it in and it fits right on the curves. So we're still trending for no later than Jan 2021 to drop below 1000.

Edited by kingly

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the game will be closed way sooner than that because some of the biggest donation contributors have stopped ummm...contributing.

 

no money no game.

 

( and I would bet even money there is less than 1000 actual people involved in the game right now ).

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1 hour ago, Lucius Optimus said:

Less than 4000 nations were active this week on P&W what's that tell ya? 

Um, you do realize that's a different statistic? The 4004 stat for CN refers to all nations currently in existence(e.g. haven't deleted or gone into inactivity mode) not active(logged in) in the last week. There are tons of nations in CN not logged into within a week or more. Don't really see how it's relevant anyway.  

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8 hours ago, eejack said:

the game will be closed way sooner than that because some of the biggest donation contributors have stopped ummm...contributing.

 

no money no game.

 

( and I would bet even money there is less than 1000 actual people involved in the game right now ).

Thats due to them being wiped out lol

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8 hours ago, kingly said:

Ohh nice, thanks for that. Just added it in and it fits right on the curves. So we're still trending for no later than Jan 2021 to drop below 1000.

Wonder how many of these are muti's that was given admins blessing to remain?

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Don't worry guys, the last time it was this low it shot up to 40,000 within a few months.

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On 24/01/2018 at 4:43 AM, JoshuaR said:

Don't worry guys, the last time it was this low it shot up to 40,000 within a few months.

What was the timeframe for when that happened?

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4 hours ago, Cataduanes said:

What was the timeframe for when that happened?

 

I hate having to explain a joke, but I think he's referring to a period between 2005 and 2006 when CN only had 4,000 nations.

 

I have been contributing to keeping accurate nation numbers in zoskia's thread precisely for purposes of statisticians. http://forums.cybernations.net/topic/129434-5838/?page=5&tab=comments#comment-3540971

 

What a waste this game has been. With serious involvement from gave development we could have kept a lot more players. The suggestion thread is full of great ideas, all of which have been ignored.

Edited by Ch33kY

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1 hour ago, Ch33kY said:

 

I hate having to explain a joke, but I think he's referring to a period between 2005 and 2006 when CN only had 4,000 nations.

 

I have been contributing to keeping accurate nation numbers in zoskia's thread precisely for purposes of statisticians. http://forums.cybernations.net/topic/129434-5838/?page=5&tab=comments#comment-3540971

 

What a waste this game has been. With serious involvement from gave development we could have kept a lot more players. The suggestion thread is full of great ideas, all of which have been ignored.

Sorry for that :D

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4 hours ago, Ch33kY said:

 

I hate having to explain a joke, but I think he's referring to a period between 2005 and 2006 when CN only had 4,000 nations.

 

I have been contributing to keeping accurate nation numbers in zoskia's thread precisely for purposes of statisticians. http://forums.cybernations.net/topic/129434-5838/?page=5&tab=comments#comment-3540971

 

What a waste this game has been. With serious involvement from gave development we could have kept a lot more players. The suggestion thread is full of great ideas, all of which have been ignored.


In truth tho nothing could have been done, With Alliances like NPO &Co. controlling the world, and no one to ad a balance nothing the from a development team would have changed a damn thing.

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7 hours ago, Ch33kY said:

 

I hate having to explain a joke, but I think he's referring to a period between 2005 and 2006 when CN only had 4,000 nations.

 

I have been contributing to keeping accurate nation numbers in zoskia's thread precisely for purposes of statisticians. http://forums.cybernations.net/topic/129434-5838/?page=5&tab=comments#comment-3540971

 

What a waste this game has been. With serious involvement from gave development we could have kept a lot more players. The suggestion thread is full of great ideas, all of which have been ignored.

 

 

the game is so devalued a group of players should purchase it on the cheap and implement stuff

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1 hour ago, Lord Windmark said:

No a games managment company needs to buy it otherwise their is great potential for players to ruin it.

 

 

ruin a dying game? I think some long-term players who understand the base mechanics and have programming chops could do a great job, if they were willing to give up their nations and loyalties.  Though I do think managing perceptions of bias would be tough..

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5 hours ago, Lucius Optimus said:

Class divide is a problem as well

 

Very much this. I know a lot of people that don’t want to get involved because they feel as though they have no chance of catching up to people that have been playing for years.

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That's why all the tech sellers should know their rights and never sell tech at a rate less than 9mil/100t to these huge nations. 

 

All nations that sell need to practice this. It has to be a grassroots movement. 

 

At least then they have a shot of being a mid tier nation within a year. 

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19 hours ago, MaineGOP said:

Though I do think managing perceptions of bias would be tough..

 

No kidding.

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10 hours ago, Jazzy95 said:

 

Very much this. I know a lot of people that don’t want to get involved because they feel as though they have no chance of catching up to people that have been playing for years.

 

 

Which is why if I owned it I would open a second server, I would maintain bob for those who want to conitnue teh legacy and large nations. The new server would be a fresh start..

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The game never recycled. A lot of the prominent leaders we have today are the same prominent gov members from 5 years ago.

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