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Nuclear Success Formula?


Polemos
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Does anyone know the formula for the success of nuclear weapons?
Today I failed 13 nukes in a row before finally hitting one. Not sure whether it's random chance, but it seems like when it rains it pours with respect to SDIs...

If you get the first few blocked, should you wait a bit before launching more?

Thanks,

-Polemos

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2 minutes ago, Polemos said:

Does anyone know the formula for the success of nuclear weapons?
Today I failed 13 nukes in a row before finally hitting one. Not sure whether it's random chance, but it seems like when it rains it pours with respect to SDIs...

If you get the first few blocked, should you wait a bit before launching more?

Thanks,

-Polemos

 

Cowboys drink.

 

Miss a nuke?  Have a drink.  Miss a 2nd?  Have a 2nd.  If you miss 13, you post like doornail.

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Each nuke has a 40% chance of hitting, whilst missing 13 nukes in a row is very unlikely: 0.6^13 chance, but given the number of wars taking place in the game it happens from time to time, you just got exceptionally unlucky.

 

(The most nukes in a row I've heard about being blocked before is 12, going up that high is obviously rare.)

 

I believe the system is RNG, you might get a different result if you wait, but it might have been that if you hadn't waited your next nuke would have hit, but after waiting your first nuke does not.

 

TL:DR, no, unless there is some mechanic that is completely hidden, there is no "strategy" for landing nukes.

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2 hours ago, Blackatron said:

(The most nukes in a row I've heard about being blocked before is 12, going up that high is obviously rare.)

I can't recall anyone missing every single one but I had heard of up to 20 or so.

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I think I've heard of 17 or 18 before, so I wouldn't be surprised with 20.  I think my personal best (worst?) is around the 12-13 range as well.

 

Honestly, if I miss the first two, I'll try someone else or click around a few screens for a bit (just in case there is some "reset" that happens).  If I don't get it within a couple of tries after that, I normally hand it off to someone else or just give up.

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Thanks, Blackotron. I constantly explain the concept of probability to people, but they still whine about misses. It's like lecturing slot-machine players.

 

 The only wrinkle is that many RNGs are based on your system clock, so they aren't truly random. That's why some people are recommending you wait. While I don't care to speculate concerning the specific routines of CN's coding, it doesn't hurt to wait a few minutes or nuke again later in the day.

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I've launched 16, and I believe Dream or Smurth once launched around 20... I've tried the waiting game, and it doesn't always work. I find as you said, when it rains it pours... I either first hit, or I'm tossing 6+ at a guy before one lands. 

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6 hours ago, hartfw said:

Not a big fan of shots in general.  Tends to always end up the same way:

 

upsljtf.png

 

Oh hey, it's Mr. Hands!

 

Also...I've never had the obscene streak of failure others have had. One or two. I'm not really qualified to say whether waiting will make a difference, but it can't hurt.

Edited by kingzog
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6 hours ago, Duderonomy said:

Thanks, Blackotron. I constantly explain the concept of probability to people, but they still whine about misses. It's like lecturing slot-machine players.

 

 The only wrinkle is that many RNGs are based on your system clock, so they aren't truly random. That's why some people are recommending you wait. While I don't care to speculate concerning the specific routines of CN's coding, it doesn't hurt to wait a few minutes or nuke again later in the day.

 

Well apart from radioactive decay and certain quantum interactions nothing is truly "random", everything is caused by something, I don't know that we are even capable of producing a computer the produces a "random" number, ultimately the choice of outcome must depend on preexisting factors.

 

 

It would be quite fantastic if 27 nukes from one person were blocked in a single day, though you'd think the attacker might as well give up by the time you're almost out.

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19 hours ago, hartfw said:

 

Cowboys drink.

 

Miss a nuke?  Have a drink.  Miss a 2nd?  Have a 2nd.  If you miss 13, you post like doornail.

I wholly support this message. Now, if you're too much of a wimp for shots... try beer. Almost any type of Summer Shandy is great this time of year. 

 

Oh and you may also want to pray to Planet Bob Jesus, it never hurts.

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I've had something like 22 of my last 25 blocked, including 9 in a row over multiple days. This hasn't been an uncommon theme over the course of the last 5 months or so I've been fighting.  I simply refuse to believe it's a straight 40/60 in all circumstances.

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