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Graphing the War (Because numbers suck)


Chad

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How does it feel to be proven wrong? I wouldn't know, I never have.

 

The SDI will make the amount of nukes dwindle quickly, which then it comes down to the nukes you buy during the war and regular war punches. 

 

Maybe eQ should win. It seems non-eQ has been hoarding too much of the intelligence on Bob for themselves.

 

 

Damn Ninety-nine percenters...

It's not that you've never been wrong. You're just not smart enough to know the difference.

 

I'm not getting into it because that argument has been made and killed many, many times. And if you factor out the different tiers and fronts and you look at the data as if the war were a level plane, you are wrong. Equilibrium is winning.

 

And when you say, "Well once you factor in the tiers and fronts, Competence is winning." Then I'll say, "Until someone actually does that, please shut your mouth."

Edited by Isotope
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I'm not getting into it because that argument has been made and killed many, many times. And if you factor out the different tiers and fronts and you look at the data as if the war were a level plane, you are wrong. Equilibrium is winning.

 

And when you say, "Well once you factor in the tiers and fronts, Competence is winning." Then I'll say, "Until someone actually does that, please shut your mouth."

 

Are you ignoring my questions?

 

Baghdad Bob I'd appreciate an answer to them.

Edited by crypticedge
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Are you ignoring my questions?

 

Baghdad Bob I'd appreciate an answer to them.

Yes. I am ignoring your questions because you feel it is important to debate me on the origins of the coalition names which everyone (with you being the single exception) couldn't really care less about.

 

And as for NPOs leader leaving? Meh. TOP is being throttled by AZTEC, Duckroll and Doomhouse are punching the crap out of each other, and the rest of Equilibrium is blowing chunks out of CnG. The war is a little close for my tastes but, as it stands, Equilibrium is winning (and no one can deny that). At the moment, Equilibrium is winning and will continue to win until the other side can get down into the lower tiers.

Edited by Isotope
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I really wasn't commenting on the tier game, my question was, who's losing it faster?  If eQ is losing more tech than Umbrella is, then the war is counter-productive of what they hoped to accomplish, when their sheer nation numbers advantage should have them catching up, assuming that they have solid economic programs and are capable of bringing in tech sellers. 

 

 If Competence is really only eating away infrastructure because that's all that was there to begin with, and eQ is chewing away more technology, then eQ is meeting their objectives, and thus, one could argue, winning the war.  After all, isn't winning all about your strategy working out?  However, if the supercharged nukes and higher success rates in the battles in the top-tier are pounding away significantly more technology than is getting pounded back, then what we see post-war is exactly the opposite of what eQuilibrium hoped to accomplish, a world in which Competence carries an even larger technology advantage, and economic programs and the numbers game takes a longer time to have an effect. 

 

So while you can project what "should" happen, and I think we're all seeing the expected is not what's playing out on the battlefield, my question remains unanswered.  Who's winning the tech war?

 

Depends on what the goals are of the leaders and what you class as winning, if its to drastically lower Umbrella's total tech alliance wide compared to the alliances which are fighting it then over the months it would become a success. Granted you would still end up with a certian amount of tech heavy nations, but that wouldn't mean much on the alliance wide scale since it would be a shell of its former self in regards to total tech.

 

Yes because you can declare on someone who has 10k+ tech with a 5k ns nation. My argument was entirely irrelevant.

 

It is an irrelevant argument because 5k ns nations aren't in "grinding zone"

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Yes. I am ignoring your questions because you feel it is important to debate me on the origins of the coalition names which everyone (with you being the single exception) couldn't really care less about.

 

And as for NPOs leader leaving? Meh. TOP is being throttled by AZTEC, Duckroll and Doomhouse are punching the crap out of each other, and the rest of Equilibrium is blowing chunks out of CnG. The war is a little close for my tastes but, as it stands, Equilibrium is winning (and no one can deny that). At the moment, Equilibrium is winning and will continue to win until the other side can get down into the lower tiers.

 

All you did was further proved Baghdad Bob was the correct name for you, because you still fail to answer the questions asked but spin a lie that is shown wrong within your own graphs. Surely you made it past statistics 101? Right? 

 

Also, NPO's leader is a telling thing, someone dragging a large group of people into a war and then cutting shows one of two things

1) he hates you all and was trying to destroy your coalition

2) you guys are losing so bad he was trying to distance himself from it without anyone realizing.

 

As for the name thing, the players in your coalition show your incompetence, I just want you to accept and admit what you know in your heart to be true.  

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All you did was further proved Baghdad Bob was the correct name for you, because you still fail to answer the questions asked but spin a lie that is shown wrong within your own graphs. Surely you made it past statistics 101? Right? 

 

Also, NPO's leader is a telling thing, someone dragging a large group of people into a war and then cutting shows one of two things

1) he hates you all and was trying to destroy your coalition

2) you guys are losing so bad he was trying to distance himself from it without anyone realizing.

 

As for the name thing, the players in your coalition show your incompetence, I just want you to accept and admit what you know in your heart to be true.  

I don't even know you, you've only been part of the game for like 20 days, and your conduct and level of intelligence leads me to believe you aren't on a reroll account. So please see yourself out. I'm not bothering to address your argument for several reasons:

 

1) You're sole purpose is to annoy me and to make immature comments. Make a valid argument and I may consider addressing it.

2) Your reasoning behind NPOs leader leaving is a very skewed and misjudged rationale. I'm glad your side's propaganda is working.

3) IDK what lies you are referring to. Just because the facts show you are losing, that doesn't mean they are lies. But time will eventually prove you wrong whether you realize it or not.

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Hm...

 

Some DH members are saying that they can always sell off infra and down-declare to hit EQ's mid tier...

 

And some EQ members are saying that they can buy infra and pull someone from DH's upper tier that was sitting too close to EQ's mid tier and into the shark tank...

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Hm...

 

Some DH members are saying that they can always sell off infra and down-declare to hit EQ's mid tier...

 

And some EQ members are saying that they can buy infra and pull someone from DH's upper tier that was sitting too close to EQ's mid tier and into the shark tank...


As with everything else, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. All this hot air and terrible posting is really just a massive waste of time, including mine for reading it all :S

 

e: Corrected the proverb, as Mr Glaucon rather kindly pointed out my error a couple of posts below.

Edited by Umar ibn Abd al-Aziz
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It's not that you've never been wrong. You're just not smart enough to know the difference.

 

I'm not getting into it because that argument has been made and killed many, many times. And if you factor out the different tiers and fronts and you look at the data as if the war were a level plane, you are wrong. Equilibrium is winning.

 

And when you say, "Well once you factor in the tiers and fronts, Competence is winning." Then I'll say, "Until someone actually does that, please shut your mouth."

 

How dare you impugn my intelligence, oh master of silly graphs of questionable data.

 

I'm just saying that your argument is flawed and that you cannot use improperly gathered data to convince an entire side of a war that they are winning when the fact is that it is too soon to tell. You just haven't been able to let go because you want your somewhat nicely drawn graphs to convince your proles that they have been following the orders of greater men, not lesser.

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Update for War Day 31

Feb18NS_zps5e8fcf58.png

Feb18Anarchy_zpsb8ed3c9f.png

Feb18PeaceMode_zpsdb73a7a2.pngFeb18Nukes_zps3d78afb0.pngFeb18Tech_zps72c86890.pngFeb18TechDistribution_zpseaec2f64.png

Tech Chart(s) Disclaimer: These charts and tech levels do not take into account the different tiers fighting in the war.

 

I'll try to get the other fronts' tech levels at the next update.

Edited by Isotope
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How dare you impugn my intelligence, oh master of silly graphs of questionable data.

 

I'm just saying that your argument is flawed and that you cannot use improperly gathered data to convince an entire side of a war that they are winning when the fact is that it is too soon to tell. You just haven't been able to let go because you want your somewhat nicely drawn graphs to convince your proles that they have been following the orders of greater men, not lesser.

I am not using graphs to convince anything. I have not produced these numbers nor have I done any investigation on my own. I literally used numbers given in other threads to create the graphs (including the top tier tracking threads and sanction race). I don't know why your side insists on this thread being a propaganda thread just because you think these graphs say you are losing.

 

Perhaps those on the Disequilibrium side who believe this thread is Equilibrium propaganda should follow the example of your smarter members (namely Namayan or Shinnra) who have seen the data, notice small discrepancies in the data (because no one has taken the time or effort to divide each front by tier and present the data that way), and still recognize that the charts are the best representation of the numbers so far.

 

The charts everyone seems to be arguing about (NS lost), by the way, have been sourced from numbers presented by Rotavele. His numbers have been recognized by both sides as skewed a bit but still usable for analysis.

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As with everything else, the proof will probably be in the pudding. All this hot air and terrible posting is really just a massive waste of time, including mine for reading it all :S

 

For all the idiocy in this thread, and there's an incredible amount of it, this is the one that really gets me.

 

It's "The proof of the pudding is in the eating", moron!

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This "grinder zone" of which you speak is collapsing more and more every week.  As DH is expanding its downward push across pretty much all 3 fronts, the upper end will soon move down past 110-120k into the lower reaches of the 85-90k plateau.  Meaning that at some point, despite the huge presence EQ claims to have at this level, there will be a pretty definitive edge on both sides of this alleged "kill zone".  It will never be squished completely, because the nations have to reside SOMEWHERE in the NS spectrum.  

 

But if EQ would like to amend the victory conditions YET again to "we can dominate your mid-tier at will", it would make the most sense as an achievable goal.  The rest is fading quickly.

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Feb18Tech-CnG_zps75065f09.png

Feb18TechDistribution-CnG_zpsca6480bf.pn

 

And starting tomorrow, I will be changing the bar graphs above to line models to show the tech changing overtime. It should give us a pretty good idea of what's going on in terms of the tech being lost in each front.

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Here's the Umbrella stats, from pre DoW 18th January to today. It includes anyone on the AA at DoW and counts their stats no matter what AA they are on presently, as well as noting said AA.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AuOBgJ-MOr7rdFJxVW9HZDA4V0ViczJUYkxIajEyLXc&output=html

 

AI's stats are similar, we have lost 300k Tech give or take, 6.5m NS or so, but then I am not, nor have tried to, spin that, facts are facts afterall, so enjoy some Umbrellan ones.

Edited by Nobody Expects
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Here's the Umbrella stats, from pre DoW 18th January to today. It includes anyone on the AA at DoW and counts their stats no matter what AA they are on presently, as well as noting said AA.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AuOBgJ-MOr7rdFJxVW9HZDA4V0ViczJUYkxIajEyLXc&output=html

 

AI's stats are similar, we have lost 300k Tech give or take, 6.5m NS or so, but then I am not, nor have tried to, spin that, facts are facts afterall, so enjoy some Umbrellan ones.

 

16 deleted so far

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Here's the Umbrella stats, from pre DoW 18th January to today. It includes anyone on the AA at DoW and counts their stats no matter what AA they are on presently, as well as noting said AA.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AuOBgJ-MOr7rdFJxVW9HZDA4V0ViczJUYkxIajEyLXc&output=html

 

AI's stats are similar, we have lost 300k Tech give or take, 6.5m NS or so, but then I am not, nor have tried to, spin that, facts are facts afterall, so enjoy some Umbrellan ones.

Is there anyway you can get the NS lost like this for all alliances? If you can, that would be really awesome and I would be in debt to you till the end of the war. It would also make the graphs a lot more accurate (instead of utilizing Rotavele's numbers which a lot of the Disequilibriumese are complaining about) and would stop all the BS commentary about me trying to skew information.

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From what I've gathered, Doomgreviances isn't trying to win this war, simply to ensure that it is dragged into a stalemate; something which those graphs seems to suggest, now that the difference between the Coalitinos has flatlined. Yes, in the end, Competence will lose at the current rate, but in order to ensure victory, Equilibrium would have to be willing to sacrifice just as much as their opponents are.

When you fight with a lot of smaller Alliances, you risk losing said smaller Allies during the course of the war, slowly depleting the resources you have at your disposal. Competence hasn't been able to take advantage of this fact, because most of said smaller Alliances are in the lower tiers, where it can't land any punches. Still, the inefficiencies inherent within Equilibrium's structure have allowed Competence to survive, and to drag itself into a position where it should be able to stave off defeat for several months. All in all, unless Equilibrium decides that they have already accomplished what they sought to do - or manages to break the morale of Competence, this war has a long way to go, and the longer the war goes, the higher the stakes for both sides.

This war is Equilibrium's to win - or lose. They have already failed to score a quick, clean victory - who knows how this war will play out.

 

I would love me some of whatever you are sniffing, this war is playing out just about exactly how most people thought it would, at least most that I talked to.  NG entering was always considered likely, but that was probably the worse thing to "go wrong" for us.

 

Some of your AA's are at 50% NS lost, you have an upper tier that can't contribute and someone on our AA has been tracking Umbrella tech losses (by nation name, not AA) and they are over 300K tech lost.  We might lose more NS than the other side by the end of this, it's a very strong possibility, but 6 months after the war ends we will have recovered far more than "competence" and if this war doesn't come to a satisfying ending, there will be a repeat, we all know this.

 

So yes, Competence can certainly cause us a lot of short-term pain, but pissing everyone in eQ off by being douches will keep us together until you are stomped into oblivion, either this war or next.

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you know what else depletes? NS, at a faster rate when it's infra. Your coalition can't keep up, accept fact.

 

That just means every point of damage we do to you now is much more painful than every point you do to us.

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Also, what do you have to say about the NPO leader brehon starting an inter-alliance war then going afk when he is so thoroughly beaten for such a period that his nation is deleted? Doesn't that say something about how this "war" of us thoroughly wrecking eQ is going?

Just checked this, and it's true, holy crap LOL.
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but 6 months after the war ends we will have recovered far more than "competence" and if this war doesn't come to a satisfying ending, there will be a repeat, we all know this.

Do you actually believe that with umbrella warchests and tech buying rates you will recover far more than them? As well as MK, TOP, and CnG?

And you also believe that with your coalition already splintering at the seams, it will reform some months down the line post-war, just to throw more gasoline upon itself for us to light?
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