Upper End of the War

[shirunei]

50% block chance, how in gods name this continues to be overlooked by even the so called elite AA's is beyond me

From the game itself

 

"

• Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) - $75,000,000 - Reduces odds of a successful nuclear attack against your nation by 60%. The SDI wonder also requires 3 satellites and 3 missile defenses and those satellites and missile defenses cannot be deleted once the wonder is developed."

Come again?

 

Edited January 30, 2013 by shirunei

[lazaraus45]

From the game itself

 

"

• Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) - $75,000,000 - Reduces odds of a successful nuclear attack against your nation by 60%. The SDI wonder also requires 3 satellites and 3 missile defenses and those satellites and missile defenses cannot be deleted once the wonder is developed."

Come again?

 

Also from the game: "Cyber Nations Tournament Edition is a more aggressive version of the popular
persistent browser-based nation simulation game
Cyber Nations with increased startup money
and decreased purchase costs for certain items. Cyber Nations Tournament Edition
also has peace mode disabled and with tournament round resets every
60 days."

 

TE has been at 90 day rounds for a while now

 

Check the actual nuke block:hit ratio instead of just reading the about section and you'll find it's 50% though, 2 years to learn how nukes work, could be worse i guess

[Corin]

Everyone on this thread should get a cookie for their hard work assembling all these fancy stats.

[Griff]

Also from the game: "Cyber Nations Tournament Edition is a more aggressive version of the popular
persistent browser-based nation simulation game
Cyber Nations with increased startup money
and decreased purchase costs for certain items. Cyber Nations Tournament Edition
also has peace mode disabled and with tournament round resets every
60 days."

 

TE has been at 90 day rounds for a while now

 

Check the actual nuke block:hit ratio instead of just reading the about section and you'll find it's 50% though, 2 years to learn how nukes work, could be worse i guess

 

...what?

 

It Is 60%. Sometimes people get lucky and land a nuke every day and others get the opposite, that's just how it works.

[shirunei]

Also from the game: "Cyber Nations Tournament Edition is a more aggressive version of the popular
persistent browser-based nation simulation game
Cyber Nations with increased startup money
and decreased purchase costs for certain items. Cyber Nations Tournament Edition
also has peace mode disabled and with tournament round resets every
60 days."

 

TE has been at 90 day rounds for a while now

 

Check the actual nuke block:hit ratio instead of just reading the about section and you'll find it's 50% though, 2 years to learn how nukes work, could be worse i guess

 

I too enjoy comparing apples and oranges. The NPL war musheen must be a wonder to behold with you on the job.  :smug:

[lazaraus45]

I too enjoy comparing apples and oranges. The NPL war musheen must be a wonder to behold with you on the job.  :smug:

 

you're cute, put your money where your mouth is rookie, 1K tech says it's 50% feel like taking the bet?

[shirunei]

you're cute, put your money where your mouth is rookie, 1K tech says it's 50% feel like taking the bet?

When you have a 1000 tech with which to wager then maybe, Rookie.

[lazaraus45]

When you have a 1000 tech with which to wager then maybe, Rookie.

Backpedal further, i can send you some guides to help you with anything else you lack knowledge of if you'd like?

 

[Vasily Blyukher]

In the beginning of the war, this is correct.

 

If we assume however, that the wars will continue on being 3 v 1 as you seem to believe, the numbers will be quite different. Since only 40 % of the nukes will hit, there will be an average of 0.8 hits a day. Some days you'll get lucky and hit with both, some days you won't hit with either. 

 

Over the course of 7 days of war (6 nukage days),you will be able to fire 14 nukes. In simplified math it's going to be 14*0.4= 5.6 nukes that are going to hit their targets. That's not even 2 nukes pr. person. 

 

The target that's been hit will however be hit by 6 nukes in the course of the war. 

 

In other words, in terms of total nuke damage, the results will be fairly even. When you count in GA's, CM's and AA's, the defending nation will lose however. Sure, he has the possibility to get as many of those attacks in as the aggressors. But he does not have the possibility to coordinate, ensuring easier attacks for the aggressor. 

 

 

It will be a costly battle for both sides. If the Equilibrium coalition manage to hang in there however, they will win in the end

 

The only issue I see with that is that EQ's reserves are falling off.  You're right about bringing more stockpiles to the table, however if you look at Doomhouse front to keep all 58 of the nations you face in anarchy you'd need your peace mode reserves to average 1.6 wars.  Or in more simple terms, 22 of your 36 reserve nations would need to declare two wars.  

 

This is of course a bit of an oversimplification in that it assumes every one of your nations currently in war mode will be in anarchy and unable to declare on a target.  It's an assumption, but not one I'd say is insane in that anarchy is widespread when the nukes fly.

 

That means you'll have 22 nations that enter the war with 25 nukes each, can buy 12 during the war, and need to fire 12.  So 25 of 37 can be sponged up by the SDI and you get your hit a day.  You can tolerate a 68% intercept rate on those.  So 22 of your 36 nations can tolerate a 68%.  The other 14 can tolerate a 84% intercept rate.

 

The issue is if your reserves continue to drop off you reach a point where your reserves need to average 2.3 wars or something like that your intercept rate tolerance drops too low and you can't launch a nuke a day.  Meanwhile rearming will take 13 days assuming the nation is WRC capable.  When a nation enters a war without a full stockpile instead of it being 25 out of 37 can miss or 31 out of 37 can miss.  Suddenly it say 16 out of 22 can miss (72% intercept rate), 10 out of 22 (45% intercept rate), etc.  

 

Of course you can also alter the odds by shorting the number of days a nation needs to fire nukes for.  Have a nation say fire for four days and then have a second nation declare and take over.  That just means that second nation comes into the war early and has less time to rebuild the stockpile.  

 

I see the looming issue for the EQ forces fighting on some fronts being the stockpile they bring into the table and the intercept rate they can tolerate.  Your reserves are dropping off while DH has achieved parity.  If we reach a point where say both sides are averaging being hit by two nukes per war cycle, it swings in favor of Umbrella.  They get to hit you twice with a nuke that has 12k tech behind it, you get to hit them twice by a nuke that only have 7k tech behind it.  I bet a lot of Umbrella nations will take that deal.  

 

Basically I'm not sure if you can keep doing 3 v 1 with all three of your guys having full nuclear stockpiles.  EQ can push the odds in the direction of 3 v 1 in the TOP front, but if they do so that means no nations sitting back and reloading the silo which spells trouble in a round or two depending on how many nations have to shoot themselves dry to crack the SDIs.  On the other fronts, I'm not seeing how you get 3 v 1 above 100k.  Of course below it, 3 v 1 is manageable in a number of tiers.  

 

Edit:

Oh and we almost made it page 5 before things started degenerating.  I guess that counts for something.  

Edited January 30, 2013 by Vasily Blyukher

[shelrich]

Backpedal further, i can send you some guides to help you with anything else you lack knowledge of if you'd like?

 

Please do. DT could learn much from the NPL. Nothing but noobs here.

 

Anyway great job with all the stats in the OP. I've been overlooking this until now. Very comprehensive and insightful. Thanks for posting and keeping this updated!

[Vespassianus]

I wonder that DH side are trying/will try to rebuild their former high tier nations who are nuked under 100k to avoid staggers? Making a big infra jump like that isn't crazy, but actually you could avoid a lot of damage if you have 1 stagger, not 3 guy who coordinate declare on you. Clearly a lot of nations on DH side could afford that, but i haven't really seen anyone using that so far.

[Umar ibn Abd al-Aziz]

Yeah, spending a billion on 3k infra when you're getting reamed by 4 big nations probably isn't a good idea, particularly when it represents a fifth of your warchest.

[dem61s]

Yeah, spending a billion on 3k infra when you're getting reamed by 4 big nations probably isn't a good idea, particularly when it represents a fifth of your warchest.

 

I agree. We may see more rebuilding going on once everyone is out of infra though.
 

[Caladin]

Check the actual nuke block:hit ratio instead of just reading the about section and you'll find it's 50% though, 2 years to learn how nukes work, could be worse i guess

 

 

I'm just some neutral, so I probably don't know anything, but I might be able to do some basic maths. So, here I go.

 

Lets use the statistics over the last month; the larger the data pool, the more accurate a result it will give.

Thwarted: 9,500

Direct hits: 7,786

 

 = (9500)/(9500+7786)

 = (9500)/(17285)

 = 0.549

∴ in the last month 54.9% nukes where destroyed by the SDI.

 

Given that some nations do not have SDI's, I would take that to mean that the destruction rate is as stated in the manual.

Edited January 30, 2013 by Caladin

[Baldr]

When you try to nuke and their SDI blocks it, normally you fire another nuke.

When you nuke successfully, you stop nuking.

I believe that will skew the numbers a bit to make SDI's look slightly less effective than they actually are.

Edited January 30, 2013 by Baldr

[dem61s]

When you try to nuke and their SDI blocks it, normally you fire another nuke.

When you nuke successfully, you stop nuking.

I believe that will skew the numbers a bit to make SDI's look slightly less effective than they actually are.

 

This man is correct.

[CubaQuerida]

When you try to nuke and their SDI blocks it, normally you fire another nuke.

When you nuke successfully, you stop nuking.

I do not ever stop nuking.  You have assumed incorrectly.

[Caladin]

When you try to nuke and their SDI blocks it, normally you fire another nuke.

When you nuke successfully, you stop nuking.

I believe that will skew the numbers a bit to make SDI's look slightly less effective than they actually are.

 

This will not skew it; each nuclear attack is an independent entity; the probability of success/failure is not dependent on the success or failure of the previous attack; the probably of being thwarted is still 60%, whether it is the fifth nuke you have fired or the first.

 

As I said above, what skews it is the players without SDI's.

[Baldr]

lol

[enderland]

When you try to nuke and their SDI blocks it, normally you fire another nuke.

When you nuke successfully, you stop nuking.

I believe that will skew the numbers a bit to make SDI's look slightly less effective than they actually are.

 

I believe know you are wrong.

 

Though, we're also assuming SDI's actually work correctly (ie there is actually a 60% chance to block a nuke consistently).  Who knows if that is actually true...

[lazaraus45]

 

 

I'm just some neutral, so I probably don't know anything, but I might be able to do some basic maths. So, here I go.

 

Lets use the statistics over the last month; the larger the data pool, the more accurate a result it will give.

Thwarted: 9,500

Direct hits: 7,786

 

 = (9500)/(9500+7786)

 = (9500)/(17285)

 = 0.549

∴ in the last month 54.9% nukes where destroyed by the SDI.

 

Given that some nations do not have SDI's, I would take that to mean that the destruction rate is as stated in the manual.

 

It would appear that way

 

http://forums.cybernations.net/index.php?/topic/98215-sdi-stats/page-2

 

that's the original thread where the SDI was found to be blocking at 50% instead of 60%, it's old but the stats were checked again during the Dave War and the same result was found so it looks like it's only been fixed very recently by admin

 

Edit: if only the DT noob had taken the bet :P

 

Edited January 30, 2013 by lazaraus45

[AntyCrist]

When you try to nuke and their SDI blocks it, normally you fire another nuke.

When you nuke successfully, you stop nuking.

I believe that will skew the numbers a bit to make SDI's look slightly less effective than they actually are.

 

As the Chinees found out with the second child policy, this dosen't effect the statistics of W/L.  SEE Binomial Distrabution Theory.

[dem61s]

As the Chinees found out with the second child policy, this dosen't effect the statistics of W/L.  SEE Binomial Distrabution Theory.

 

No clue what the Chinese found out, but the process he describes is a negative binomial distribution, or a geometric distribution. Not a binomial one. It still doesn't change that the mean number of trials to get the first successful hit is gonna be 1/p though.

[Longshadow]

I think we can all agree that SDI's have close to an effectiveness of between 50-60%. The main purpose of this thread however is to discuss the war strategy of the Equilibrium War, not the statistics related to SDIs. This is by far the best war analysis I have seen so props to the OP on that.

[Ardus]

I think we can all agree that SDI's have close to an effectiveness of between 50-60%. The main purpose of this thread however is to discuss the war strategy of the Equilibrium War, not the statistics related to SDIs. This is by far the best war analysis I have seen so props to the OP on that.

Nuts to you, here come statistics!

The probability of a successful nuke through an SDI on a single try is 40%. Not favorable, but not terrible. However, the probability of getting a nuke through in two tries jumps to 64%.

1-(1/p(x))^n, where p(x) is the probability of a successful nuke and n is the number of attempts. So we get 1-0.6^n. I threw that into Excel to see the probability of a nuke landing in up to 10 shots.

Rounded to the tenths as necessary...
1 = 40%
2 = 64%
3 = 78.4%
4 = 87.0%
5 = 92.2%
6 = 95.3%
7 = 97.2%
8 = 98.3%
9 = 99.0%
10 = 99.0%

On the average, your nuke should probably get through by the second attempt. But the average isn't what we usually notice or get miffed about. We get frustrated with (or extremely grateful for) SDIs when they block nuke after nuke after nuke. So what's the chance of an SDI blocking n nukes in a row? It's just the inverse of above: 0.6^n

Rounded to the tenths as necessary...
1 = 60%
2 = 36%
3 = 21.6%
4 = 13.0%
5 = 7.8%
6 = 4.7%
7 = 2.8%
8 = 1.7%
9 = 1.0%
10 = 0.1%

A nearly 8% chance of blocking 5 nukes in a row is not negligible. In a month of war (1v1), it's all but guaranteed to happen to you at least once, probably when you're already low on nukes. But that's much preferable to 1v2s and 1v3s; in the last of those, if you're trying to nuke everybody everyday, you're going to run out of nukes. And the 5 block rock isn't alone; the chances of an SDI blocking 4 or 6 nukes in a row is similarly non-negligible and would require 1/5 or more of a full stockpile to land one damn nuke.

This plays a huge influence in how each side fights the war and underpins macro-scale strategies. Edited January 31, 2013 by Ardus