Winter War 2013, what next?

[King Wally]

[quote name='LeonidasRexII' timestamp='1358656518' post='3080675']


I have always been suspicious of the neutrals for just that reason. Maybe after saving money for 6 years they are finally ready to teach us all a lesson.

[/quote]

It would be more interesting if that was possible. But unfortunetly wars require more mental toughness then pixel toughness. Any neutral that went to war would leak their top teir to another neutral/POW AA etc very fast. A week of nukes even if they were winning would unsettle them to no end. They would probably coup their leader and boot them or splinter straight in half instantly. The neutrals may be large but they are not culturally prepared for modern grinding CN wars.

[Vasily Blyukher]

Initially the Doomhouse Front will opt to fight solely in the upper tier and strive to set it up so Non Grata chains in on their side, via a combination of diplomacy and controlling what treaties they activate (or cause to be activated via counters).

It is interesting in that right now there seem to be three outcomes. One is DH can win in the upper tier, but fail to have a strong enough midtier to fight at level, and you end up with an interesting stalemate. TOP and MK end up with their developing nations in peace mode, but they have complete control of the upper tier. Secondly DH can win the upper tier and chain enough people they also opt to fight in the mid tier. The third of course is DH losing the upper tier, at which point one assumes they lose the war,

I personally am rooting for the first one as that will lead to a somewhat indecisive conflict and an arms race post war as both sides set up for a rematch and another upper tier fight (MK, TOP, etc trying to bring their developing nations up to speed, while the other side rebuilds and expands).

[vandelsand]

[quote name='LeonidasRexII' timestamp='1358633675' post='3080265']
The first step is easy as I fully expect the rest of Doomhouse to immediately counter. There's also a strong possibility, I think, that they could be joined rather quickly by ODN and possibly the rest of C&G as well.

Round 2 could be verrrry interesting considering the treaty positions of some key players. One of the alliances I'm most interested in is Non Grata as they seem positioned squarely in the middle of the main antagonists. Another is TOP, and I'm leaning on an early entry from them considering their recent troubles with IRON.
[/quote]

Very astute observations, welcome back down to the ground floor. ODN is going to try to maneuver for the supreme orange alliance as IRON gets their hands full. Hopefully the rest if CN will jump in too, that's where I'm excited. Please expand the web and add treaty partners with dotted lines, that will give us an idea of what's to come.

[Unknown Smurf]

[quote name='Vasily Blyukher' timestamp='1358780329' post='3082254']
Initially the Doomhouse Front will opt to fight solely in the upper tier and strive to set it up so Non Grata chains in on their side, via a combination of diplomacy and controlling what treaties they activate (or cause to be activated via counters).

It is interesting in that right now there seem to be three outcomes. One is DH can win in the upper tier, but fail to have a strong enough midtier to fight at level, and you end up with an interesting stalemate. TOP and MK end up with their developing nations in peace mode, but they have complete control of the upper tier. Secondly DH can win the upper tier and chain enough people they also opt to fight in the mid tier. The third of course is DH losing the upper tier, at which point one assumes they lose the war,

I personally am rooting for the first one as that will lead to a somewhat indecisive conflict and an arms race post war as both sides set up for a rematch and another upper tier fight (MK, TOP, etc trying to bring their developing nations up to speed, while the other side rebuilds and expands).
[/quote]

It would be stupid for AIs side to let this war end in a stalemate. Even if Umb's sides upper tier proves to be too much; AIs side needs to continue the war by peacing their top tier and annihilating those selling tech to Umbrellas upper tier. That way they can have their upper tiers catch up by choking off Umbrellas "supply line"

[Aeros]

This war is not going to end in a Stalemate. One side is going to win. Time will tell which one it will be. Peace mode only has the potential to prolong a conflict beyond its natural time.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Aeros

[Iceknave]

[quote name='Unknown Smurf' timestamp='1358799568' post='3082523']
It would be stupid for AIs side to let this war end in a stalemate. Even if Umb's sides upper tier proves to be too much; AIs side needs to continue the war by peacing their top tier and annihilating those selling tech to Umbrellas upper tier. That way they can have their upper tiers catch up by choking off Umbrellas "supply line"
[/quote]
Annihiliating the lower tiers doesn't affect the supply line. Just adds complexity to how to keep the supply line open and still moving tech and in fact, increases potential supply by increasing the number of potential sellers.

[Unknown Smurf]

[quote name='Iceknave' timestamp='1358800361' post='3082538']
Annihiliating the lower tiers doesn't affect the supply line. Just adds complexity to how to keep the supply line open and still moving tech and in fact, increases potential supply by increasing the number of potential sellers.
[/quote]

Not if war is declared on alliances who sell tech to Umbrella as a deterrent... while peace isn't given to Umbrella. (The latter so that people who jump on the AA to sell are also hit).

[The Warrior]

[quote name='LeonidasRexII' timestamp='1358633675' post='3080265']
Now down to business, where will the war go from here? Tell me how you think the war will evolve and why. The first step is easy as I fully expect the rest of Doomhouse to immediately counter. There's also a strong possibility, I think, that they could be joined rather quickly by ODN and possibly the rest of C&G as well.

Round 2 could be verrrry interesting considering the treaty positions of some key players. One of the alliances I'm most interested in is Non Grata as they seem positioned squarely in the middle of the main antagonists. Another is TOP, and I'm leaning on an early entry from them considering their recent troubles with IRON. On the bloc level, Aftermath has some hard decisions to make when this war gets to their neck of the Treaty Web.
[/quote]

Well so far you have been pretty spot on sir. We'll see where we go from here.

[quote name='sir pwnage' timestamp='1358648248' post='3080506']
GPA/TDO/WTF wait three weeks then wreck what's left of everyone else's top tier.
[/quote]

I think I would actually laugh pretty hard at this if it were to happen.

[Zacharias]

[quote name='salsabeast1' timestamp='1358649796' post='3080529']
TTK is on an entirely different level then GOONS, you cowards. Get rolled by a micro?
[/quote]

Using a repeated phrase to insult an alliance that really doesn't care?

This is well thought out and unbiased, better than the majority of the garbage posted OWF, Great work

Edited January 21, 2013 by Zacharias

[LeonidasRexII]

Well Round 1 is complete -

[img]http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/521/4492872364.png[/img]
[size=2][url="http://forums.cybernations.net/index.php?app=blog&module=display&section=blog&blogid=784"]War web[/url] and pic courtesy of Roxas' blog.[/size]

[size=2][size=4]What is in store for Round 2 people? Give me your thoughts, opinions, first-born, or whatever else comes to mind.[/size][/size]

I actually have a request from vandelsand:
[quote name='vandelsand' timestamp='1358783750' post='3082322']
Please expand the web and add treaty partners with dotted lines, that will give us an idea of what's to come.[/quote]

I wish I could comply Mr. V., but I just don't have the time. I can give a quick run down of treatys that have been posted by the combatants, starting with Umbrella. Of course this is assuming that treaty records are accurate and up-to-date.

The countering alliances all have treaties with [color=#ff0000]Umbrella[/color], but there are several Umbrella treaty partners still outstanding:

[u]MDoAP[/u]
[color=#ff0000]Viridian Entente[/color]
[color=#ff0000]GOONs[/color]
[color=#ff0000]Deinos [/color]

MHA has an optional treaty with Umbrella, but it also has ties to IRON so they may be biding their time.

Now that the first counters have hit [color=#800080]Anarchy Inc[/color]. and [color=#0000cd]NATO[/color]; their allies (color coded for your convenience) have an easier way into the fray, which includes:

[u]MDoAP[/u]
[color=#800080]SNAFU[/color]
[color=#800080]The Dark Templar[/color]
[color=#800080]Argent[/color]
[color=#800080]TORN[/color]
[color=#800080]Molan Labe[/color]
[color=#0000cd]LSF[/color]
[color=#0000cd]R&R[/color]
[color=#0000cd]Ragnarok[/color]

[u]MDP[/u]
[color=#0000cd]North Atlantic Defense Coalition[/color]

[u]ODoAP[/u]
[color=#800080]The Phoenix Federation[/color]
[color=#800080]The Javahouse League[/color]

[u]ODP[/u]
[color=#800080]Fark[/color]
[color=#0000cd]CCC[/color]

Another aspect of this that should be mentioned is the C&G bloc. As a Mutual Agression bloc the other C&G members not currently involved (tLR, GATO) have a way in through ODN's attack on NATO.

I mentioned Non Grata in the OP as being "in the middle", and here's a run down of their treaties. They have ties to NPO and IRON on the Equilibrium side and Mushroom Kingdom on the Umbrella side. Just looking at their newer treaties and the fact that they withdrew from the now defunct Pandora's Box makes it seems like they could lean away from Umbrella. But, I don't have any first-hand knowledge of what Non Grata's feeling are to Doomhouse and friends.

[img]http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/521/1037478625.png[/img]

[Proest]

[quote name='Aeros' timestamp='1358800270' post='3082535']
This war is not going to end in a Stalemate. One side is going to win. Time will tell which one it will be. Peace mode only has the potential to prolong a conflict beyond its natural time.
[/quote]
You guys really bought too much stock in your bad portfolio here. There is no "natural time" for a war to exist, it can go on and on for as long as either side is willing to let it. With the top tier of our alliance still having plenty of money and the ability to buy back up out of range of those we knock down, I'd say things aren't as clear as some would like them to be.

[Chaoshawk]

It's okay Leonidas, you don't have to worry about the treaties anymore.

[LeonidasRexII]

[quote name='Chaoshawk' timestamp='1358896787' post='3084047']
It's okay Leonidas, you don't have to worry about the treaties anymore.
[/quote]

LOL, now you tell me!

Still it looks like everyone's trying to win Non Grata's hand even though their NS won't swing things much either way.

[Brehon]

What is next after this war is 100% up to how it ends. Once it does end, how parties react. Then follow any/all treaty moves and the arrowhead will point like it always does.

[Innerspeaker]

What is next after this war is 100% up to how it ends. Once it does end, how parties react. Then follow any/all treaty moves and the arrowhead will point like it always does.

 

Thanks John Madden

[Mogar]

LOL, now you tell me! :awesome:

Still it looks like everyone's trying to win Non Grata's hand even though their NS won't swing things much either way.

 

who said it had anything to do with their NS? it has far more to do with how its distributed and the warchests of their nations that didn't get wrecked last war.

[Goldie]

Thanks John Madden

 

Seriously one of my favorite posts ever.

[Johnny Apocalypse]

The winner of this war has already been decided, Equilibrium cedes any potential victory to Non Grata.

Edited January 26, 2013 by Johnny Apocalypse

[Buds The Man]

You guys really bought too much stock in your bad portfolio here. There is no "natural time" for a war to exist, it can go on and on for as long as either side is willing to let it. With the top tier of our alliance still having plenty of money and the ability to buy back up out of range of those we knock down, I'd say things aren't as clear as some would like them to be.

 

This kind of works both ways doesnt it.  You buy back out of range of everyone then you become nothing but a bystander and allow your oppenents to continually kill the middle tier. 

[Merrie Melodies]

This kind of works both ways doesnt it.  You buy back out of range of everyone then you become nothing but a bystander and allow your oppenents to continually kill the middle tier. 

 

This is one of the more interesting aspects of this war for me. Does Umbrella have beast enough war chests to buy themselves out of range and have enough left to aid drop their mid tiers? Or even more troublesome for AI, does Umbrella have the war chests to buy out of range, aid drop and then when strategically beneficial sell down and go on the offensive against whats left of their enemies upper nations preventing those nations from effectively aiding their mid tiers?

 

Such an exciting war to watch, so many potential endings. This may be one of CN's best times.

Edited January 26, 2013 by Merrie Melodies

[Litha Riddle]

I predict Riddle/Winner will continue to spout out idiocy and nonsense and continue to be well past the realm of 'funny' and into the 'pure annoyance and self-embarassment' zone.

 

I was Riddle first D:

 

He can be just Winner or Tom

[lamuella]

What is next after this war is 100% up to how it ends. Once it does end, how parties react. Then follow any/all treaty moves and the arrowhead will point like it always does.

 

The winning side will be the first side who wins.

[The Gareth]

The winning side will be the first side who wins.

 

No that makes no sense! With this war it might be the loser may get treaties and so treaties might be so important that it might be like winning. Winning might be losing and the winning of the lose of winner. Now that makes sense.   ;) 

Edited February 6, 2013 by The Gareth