The Amazing Sanction Race

[Geoffron X]

Your estimate for FOK appears to be outside your range.

[Gopherbashi]

Your estimate for FOK appears to be outside your range.

Fixed.

Also, it appears that I messed up the formula, but I don't feel like going back and correcting everything. Mean projections are still good.

[Raider]

Come GATO! It's time to rally and surge past Rok! I got tech riding on this.

[Chalaskan]

What's up with UPN?

[Locke]

What's up with UPN?

This happened.

[wickedj]

If CSN is still ahead of us in a month I'll be so depressed, I'll eat a whole tub of icecream while watching an Oprah marathon.

get used to it, Jackie

[Great Lord Moth]

Random Insanity Alliance : 18.06 --> 19.33 (+1.27) (19.25 - 19.40)

The Grämlins : 19.99 --> 19.06 (-0.93) (18.72 - 19.40)

Whoa. @_@

[DogeWilliam]

With the way NpO can gain I don't see how you calculated that for them. I would expect them to be in the number 2 spot by the end of November.

[Dr. Dan]

With the way NpO can gain I don't see how you calculated that for them. I would expect them to be in the number 2 spot by the end of November.

He did calculate it on the way NpO has gained.  The same goes for all the alliances up there.

[Gopherbashi]

With the way NpO can gain I don't see how you calculated that for them. I would expect them to be in the number 2 spot by the end of November.

We all know how well the NpO can gain, but as of late, they haven't been doing so. NpO gained less than two points over the past month, while Sparta and MHA have both gained nearly 2.50. The predictions aren't perfect, as all we have to base it on are past results, but at the same time - it's one of the few things that can give a general indication of how things might progress.

[DaJoW]

Yeah, our growth has been pretty horrible as of late

[Goldie]

well we had an old friend rejoin yesterday in xana, but teddyyo is going to a friend's alliance so that took a lot of our gain away from yesterday. regardless its been a great month for viridia, and we grew by a healthy amount in spite of 3 major deletions totalling 200k ns.

[New Frontier]

The shadow approaches.

[LegendoftheSkies]

The predictions aren't perfect, as all we have to base it on are past results, but at the same time - it's one of the few things that can give a general indication of how things might progress.

It also doesn't take into account alliances which might enter the race in the next month. I wouldn't be surprised if FAN got in there and it looks like NEW might be able to get their foot in the door soon

Edited November 1, 2009 by Legend of the Skies

[Sylar]

were back! http://www.cybernations.net/stats_alliance...%20Sith%20Order

[Poobah]

I've also done a little bit of number-crunching and come up with the way things might look a month from now. Values are based on mean movement over the past month, and the range at the end of each line is based on how things should theoretically turn out 95% of the time (as long as there's no giant war, and as long as I did the math right for those, which I may not have).

Predictions for November 2009

1 The Order Of The Paradox : 57.51 --> 61.01 (+3.50) (60.57 - 61.46)

2 Mostly Harmless Alliance : 52.83 --> 55.15 (+2.32) (54.88 - 55.42)

3 Sparta : 52.94 --> 55.08 (+2.14) (54.67 - 55.48)

4 New Polar Order : 50.86 --> 52.59 (+1.73) (52.27 - 52.91)

5 Independent Republic Of Orange Nations : 45.49 --> 48.50 (+3.01) (38.77 - 39.11)

6 Orange Defense Network : 37.41 --> 38.94 (+1.53) (38.77 - 39.11)

7 Fark : 35.23 --> 37.22 (+1.99) (37.12 - 37.33)

8 New Pacific Order : 33.06 --> 35.06 (+2.00) (34.85 - 35.28)

9 Green Protection Agency : 33.28 --> 34.90 (+1.62) (34.75 - 35.04)

Mushroom Kingdom : 28.79 --> 32.04 (+3.25) (31.57 - 32.51)

10 FOK : 29.83 --> 31.18 (+1.35) (31.10 - 31.25)

11 The Order Of Light : 28.21 --> 29.63 (+1.42) (29.45 - 29.82)

12 World Task Force : 28.57 --> 29.02 (+0.45) (28.82 - 29.21)

---------------

13 Viridian Entente : 27.07 --> 28.79 (+1.72) (28.60 - 28.99)

14 The Democratic Order : 27.85 --> 27.28 (-0.57) (27.06 - 27.49)

15 The Legion : 24.67 --> 25.85 (+1.18) (25.67 - 26.03)

Ragnarok : 23.13 --> 25.61 (+2.48) (25.30 - 25.92)

---------- Tier Barrier 1 : 23.21 --> 24.02 (+0.81)

Global Alliance And Treaty Organization : 22.76 --> 23.65 (+0.89) (23.54 - 23.76)

Commonwealth Of Sovereign Nations : 20.54 --> 22.21 (+1.67) (22.04 - 22.38)

Athens : 20.30 --> 21.62 (+1.32) (21.54 - 21.69)

Multicolored Cross-X Alliance : 19.44 --> 20.13 (+0.69) (20.02 - 20.24)

Random Insanity Alliance : 18.06 --> 19.33 (+1.27) (19.25 - 19.40)

The Grämlins : 19.99 --> 19.06 (-0.93) (18.72 - 19.40)

---------- Tier Barrier 2 : 18.21 --> 19.02 (+0.81)

Siberian Tiger Alliance : 17.44 --> 17.59 (+0.15) (17.45 - 17.74)

United Purple Nations : 18.52 --> 17.40 (-1.12) (17.00 - 17.79)

North Atlantic Defense Coalition : 15.83 --> 16.46 (+0.63) (16.33 - 16.59)

RnR : 15.69 --> 16.19 (+0.50) (16.06 - 16.32)

M*A*S*H : 15.63 --> 16.16 (+0.53) (16.09 - 16.23)

Invicta : 16.84 --> 15.63 (-1.21) (15.33 - 15.93)

We Are Perth Army : 15.05 --> 15.52 (+0.47) (15.47 - 15.58)

Nueva Vida : 14.86 --> 15.26 (+0.40) (15.08 - 15.43)

---------- Add Line : 14.11 --> 14.51 (+0.40)

---------- Drop Line : 13.81 --> 14.21 (+0.40)

Umbrella : 14.00 --> 13.49 (-0.51) (13.26 - 13.71)

Monos Archein : 14.16 --> 10.52 (-3.64) (10.02 - 11.03)

Can you re-do this with the median values instead? It would probably prove to be much more accurate.

[Gopherbashi]

It also doesn't take into account alliances which might enter the race in the next month. I wouldn't be surprised if FAN got in there and it looks like NEW might be able to get their foot in the door soon

NSO and NEW I would completely expect in the next month (if not today) - LoSS has potential, and FAN has an outside shot.

Can you re-do this with the median values instead? It would probably prove to be much more accurate.

No. Too much work, don't feel like re-writing it.

[Brenann]

were back! http://www.cybernations.net/stats_alliance...%20Sith%20Order

When they Sith come back... well they really go all out... 14.66 score? You must have good steroid suppliers.

[Locke]

When they Sith come back... well they really go all out... 14.66 score? You must have good steroid suppliers.

They grabbed Syn off from from Invicta. Big chunk of score there.

[Haflinger]

They grabbed Syn off from from Invicta. Big chunk of score there.

Two other large nations as well, for over 250K in new NS.

[willirica]

Two other large nations as well, for over 250K in new NS.

Our membership count has risen from 145 to 200 over the month of October as well.

[shahman]

Our membership count has risen from 145 to 200 over the month of October as well.

Smallest sanctionable alliance?

[Lord Brendan]

Smallest sanctionable alliance?

That would be the Guru Order. 239 members, 8.32 score.

[Gopherbashi]

November 1, 2009

1 [226] (-6) The Order Of The Paradox : 57.51 --> 57.02 (-0.49)

2 [644] (+5) Mostly Harmless Alliance : 52.83 --> 53.02 (+0.19)

3 [574] (+0) Sparta : 52.94 --> 52.79 (-0.15)

4 [422] (-1) New Polar Order : 50.86 --> 51.00 (+0.14)

5 [527] (+1) Independent Republic Of Orange Nations : 45.49 --> 45.81 (+0.32)

6 [366] (+2) Orange Defense Network : 37.41 --> 37.51 (+0.10)

7 [304] (+0) Fark : 35.23 --> 35.23 (+0.00)

8 [272] (-2) Green Protection Agency : 33.28 --> 33.32 (+0.04)

9 [640] (+4) New Pacific Order : 33.06 --> 33.18 (+0.12)

10 [239] (+0) FOK : 29.83 --> 29.87 (+0.04)

{174} (-1) Mushroom Kingdom : 28.79 --> 28.69 (-0.10)

11 [238] (+2) World Task Force : 28.57 --> 28.63 (+0.06)

12 [244] (-1) The Order Of Light : 28.21 --> 28.22 (+0.01)

---------------

13 [453] (-1) The Democratic Order : 27.85 --> 27.85 (+0.00)

14 [299] (-2) Viridian Entente : 27.07 --> 26.95 (-0.12)

15 [404] (+1) The Legion : 24.67 --> 24.73 (+0.06)

[310] (+4) Ragnarok : 23.13 --> 23.23 (+0.10)

---------- Tier Barrier 1 : 23.21 --> 23.22 (+0.01)

[337] (+0) Global Alliance And Treaty Organization : 22.76 --> 22.64 (-0.12)

[200] (+1) Commonwealth Of Sovereign Nations : 20.54 --> 20.60 (+0.06)

{180} (+1) Athens : 20.30 --> 20.41 (+0.11)

{75} (+0) The Grämlins : 19.99 --> 20.11 (+0.12)

[232] (+0) Multicolored Cross-X Alliance : 19.44 --> 19.45 (+0.01)

[228] (+0) United Purple Nations : 18.52 --> 18.54 (+0.02)

---------- Tier Barrier 2 : 18.21 --> 18.22 (+0.01)

[236] (+1) Random Insanity Alliance : 18.06 --> 18.09 (+0.03)

{185} (+1) Siberian Tiger Alliance : 17.44 --> 17.52 (+0.08)

{188} (-1) Invicta : 16.84 --> 16.83 (-0.01)

{157} (-2) North Atlantic Defense Coalition : 15.83 --> 15.80 (-0.03)

[221] (+1) RnR : 15.69 --> 15.75 (+0.06)

{124} (+0) M*A*S*H : 15.63 --> 15.65 (+0.02)

{143} (+1) We Are Perth Army : 15.05 --> 15.12 (+0.07)

{121} (+0) Nueva Vida : 14.86 --> 14.89 (+0.03)

[200] (N/A) New Sith Order : N/A --> 14.68 (N/A)

{179} (+1) Monos Archein : 14.16 --> 14.19 (+0.03)

---------- Add Line : 14.11 --> 14.11 (+0.00)

{67} (+0) Umbrella : 14.00 --> 14.03 (+0.03)

---------- Drop Line : 13.80 --> 13.81 (+0.01)

Statistics

Sanction Race Daily Growth: 895.84 --> 896.67 (0.09%)

Sanctioned Alliances Daily Growth: 485.22 --> 485.60 (0.08%)

Biggest Gainer

Independent Republic Of Orange Nations (+0.32)

Biggest Loser

The Order Of The Paradox (-0.49)

Passes of the Day

Mostly Harmless Alliance passes Sparta

Ragnarok passes Tier Barrier 1[/color]

New Sith Order passes Add Line

New Sith Order passes Monos Archein

Commentary

Keeping this one quick today.

The Order Of The Paradox continues its wild cycle of unpredictableness, dropping six members and half a point, but gaining a Biggest Loser prize. Also falling into stereotype is Sparta and the Mostly Harmless Alliance, who switch places again today, with the latter ending up on top. The New Polar Order, the Independent Republic Of Orange Nations, and the New Pacific Order all return to their winning ways, while the Mushroom Kingdom drops a tenth of a point and comes dangerously close to going down on the World Task Force.

In Tier One, the Viridian Entente drops an eighth of a point with an uncharacteristic loss, while The Legion has its glory stolen as Ragnarok crashes into Tier One with a tenth-of-a-point gain. Tier Two sees a harsh drop from the Global Alliance And Treaty Organization, along with corresponding gains from Athens and The Grämlins. Tier Three sees large gains from the Siberian Tiger Alliance, RnR, and the We Are Perth Army, as well as the New Sith Order coming back in with a large thrust back inwards after their previous withdrawal.

Also, thoughts on this shade for Aqua?

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Related Links:

Stats By Unspeakable Evil

Tournament Edition Sanction Race

How To Update the Amazing Sanction Race

Sanction Race Update Creator spreadsheet: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pFd...rmXWQ&hl=en

[/update]

[Jack Diorno]

[200] (+1) Commonwealth Of Sovereign Nations : 20.54 --> 20.60 (+0.06)

{180} (+1) Athens : 20.30 --> 20.41 (+0.11)

Are you worried yet CSN? B)

while the Mushroom Kingdom drops a tenth of a point and comes dangerously close to going down on the World Task Force.

MK, what the hell seriously? going down on another alliance?