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Spy operation odds


r00tn00b
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when looking at spy odds with an AA mate of mine, we both have 50% odds on a nation we wish to spy.

this is a bit odd as I have no CIA and only 550 spy's and I was at low threat level.

My AA mate has a CIA max spy's and was at severe.

I can provide nation links to those involved if that is necessary. am I missing something with spy formulas? I would think the odds would be completely different for each of our nations given the disparity in spy numbers and settings.

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[quote name='Comrade Tiki' timestamp='1316676254' post='2805807']
I don't think the Operation Odds will show you less than 50% success.

The idea is, if it's less than 50%, then their spies are good enough to keep you from knowing exactly how secure they are.


So, it's likely that the target matches your larger friend.
[/quote]

I know I have see odds lower than 50%, this can not be the case.

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[quote]Attacking spies chances of success are determined by (number of spies) + (technology level / 20)
The defending nation's counter intelligence systems are determined by (number of spies) + (technology level / 20) + (land total / 70). Threat level modifiers are also taken into account for the defender.[/quote]
http://www.cybernations.net/about_topics.asp#Spies
Try running this for both your nations, then run for their nation (obviously you'll need to guess on a couple points until you gather intel). Keep in mind that 50% is an approximation, it could be up to 69% or as low as 31%. I have a feeling you're on opposite ends of that span.


[quote name='Comrade Tiki' timestamp='1316676254' post='2805807']
I don't think the Operation Odds will show you less than 50% success.

The idea is, if it's less than 50%, then their spies are good enough to keep you from knowing exactly how secure they are.


So, it's likely that the target matches your larger friend.
[/quote]
Pretty sure it's 10/30/50/70/90.

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I have 800 spies and CIA with more tech and on communist

He has 545 spies no CIA less tech and was in Monarchy when I spied.

I got 50% odds on him, surely that is wrong?


He doesnt have a 10% spy bonus from government
He doesnt have any kind of tech advantage over me
He only has 545 spies v my 800.

I remember getting 70% odds on people with no CIA and even on the same severe level as myself. What changed?

Fyi, I have spied him 2 days and both times 50% odds.

Edited by Hiro Nakara
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[quote name='Haflinger' timestamp='1316691771' post='2805845']
I have noticed some strange spy odds over the past year or so; not often enough to make a bug report but enough times to make me wonder.

However - does he have a lot of land? Land improves defense against spies.
[/quote]


He has 2,515.239

I have 1,137.429

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[quote name='Hiro Nakara' timestamp='1316689980' post='2805842']
I have 800 spies and CIA with more tech and on communist

He has 545 spies no CIA less tech and was in Monarchy when I spied.

I got 50% odds on him, surely that is wrong?


He doesnt have a 10% spy bonus from government
He doesnt have any kind of tech advantage over me
He only has 545 spies v my 800.

I remember getting 70% odds on people with no CIA and even on the same severe level as myself. What changed?

Fyi, I have spied him 2 days and both times 50% odds.
[/quote]
Based on this information, his defense is 818.49 and your attack is 1226.65. That's what, 67% odds?

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[quote name='r00tn00b' timestamp='1316676524' post='2805808']
I know I have see odds lower than 50%, this can not be the case.
[/quote]
Ahh, sorry guys, my bad...

My nation has always been pretty land-rich, and I started buying as many spies as I could afford when I saw they had no upkeep, so I guess I've never seen odds less than 50%!

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[quote name='Hiro Nakara' timestamp='1316692528' post='2805846']
He has 2,515.239

I have 1,137.429
[/quote]
Your land is irrelevant. Land only helps defense, it doesn't help offense.

So when two nations with 40K land each are trying to spy each other, they both have crappy odds.

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[quote name='Hiro Nakara' timestamp='1316695569' post='2805864']
Yea It should be around 70%
[/quote]
Well it would start displaying a change at 70%, I think, so being close to it like that would still show you 50%, nothing wrong there.

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[quote name='Locke' timestamp='1316701260' post='2805905']
Well it would start displaying a change at 70%, I think, so being close to it like that would still show you 50%, nothing wrong there.
[/quote]


Then why has it suddenly went from the last war showing 70% odds to showing 50% odds now? Nothing has changed, in-fact the only thing that has changed since my last spy report is that my tech has grown.

This being 67% and only showing 50% makes little sense.

When I originally showed 70% prior to now.

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