Decomposition

I think that there are three things that we can probably all agree on: 1. The 10% figure is wrong 2. Event occurrences are not independent of each other - having had one increases the likelihood of another occurring in the next few days 3. Some nations have events far more frequently than others Together this means that it makes little sense to talk about a single probability for events since so many other factors appear to play a role.

Well if the odds of not receiving a single event in 190 days are less than one in 300 million for a single nation like myself then the odds of this happening even only once across 30,000 nations is around 1 in 100,000 - still staggeringly unlikely. But obviously there are many many nations who have experienced no events across even longer time frames. Even a probability of 3% per tax collection makes the odds of not receiving a single event over 190 days less than 1 in 326. Still small but perhaps a more reasonable estimate.

Again - a very funny response. You have to think of every day of tax collection as an independent event and my entire experience as a series of independent events (191 by today's count). This has nothing to do with what you call "sample size" by which I assume you mean the number of individuals experiencing something.

Oh dear! OK - here's what you need to do - buy yourself any intro to stats textbook and then use a simple test for the difference in proportions to determine the probability of throwing 11.2 million sixes out of 60 million throws of an unbiased dice (or use binomial theory - there are a couple of different approaches that will give you the same answer) . The odds are so unbelievably small that any calculator will be unable to express how unlikely the event is because it will run out of zeroes behind the decimal point. The innumeracy of your post is so cute that I am bringing it to my introductory stats class this afternoon. Thanks for the great example - I am sure my students will enjoy it. btw - would I have the ruler name, nation name, and capital name combo (Decomposition, Cholesky, Monte Carlo) if I was not the ultimate stats geek?

You are on the right track but if you throw a unbiased dice 60 million times you will get very very very very close to exactly 10 million 1s, 2s, 3s etc. If you got 11.2 million of any one number you should be even more suspicious than if you threw 50 heads in a row with a supposedly unbiased coin.

Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. If I give you a coin claiming that it has an equal chance of coming up heads or tails on every coin toss and it comes up heads fifty times in a row then you have every reason to suspect that I am lying to you. Even if I were the only nation that had experienced this among 30,000 nations things would still look very fishy since a 1 in 300 million chance is very unlikely to occur across 30,000 nations. Since there are many, many other nations that also have not had events occurring for extensive periods of time this issue is obviously moot. I, and others, have tried to figure out what additional factors may play a role in determining the likelihood of an event but have thus far come up short. The only things that are clear is that the 10% figure is way off and that events are not distributed randomly and independently.

Oh man.... OK time for stats lessons again. The claim is that the probability of an event occurring are 10% every time taxes are collected. Now we have my nation (and many other nations like me) that has never had an event occurring. According to binomial theory the odds of a 10% chance event not occurring for 186 days is less than 1 in 300 million. This is not just a "low probability" but definitive evidence that the 10% figure is wrong. There are other nations that have not had an event for well over 200 days (odds go into the billions to one). Even ignoring other nations my case is not anecdotal since I have a sample of 186 events. I have a PhD in statistics so please don't tell me that I am just "unlucky". The 10% figure is very very wrong.

Not that surprising???? Odds of less than 1 in 300 million! How often do you win the lottery or are hit by meteorites?

I'm now 186 days old and have yet to experience an event. The odds of that happening if the odds really are 10% are 1 in 324,259,900. Yup - less than 1 in 300 million. And yes, I've collected taxes on almost every day.

Just wondering if there is any known alliance out there comprised of a greater than average number of "older" players like myself (i.e., above 30) - something like The Decrepit Alliance or Federation of Seniles? Disclaimer: I am not going to be my leaving my alliance. It is a lot of fun to be in an alliance with 14-16 year-olds - but was just wondering...

dismiss about 5000 of your soldiers - unless you are in a war - should fix the problem.

Hi All, Currently having a small debate with others about the "right" amount of money to save up for times of war (measured as number of days of tax collection in order to control for nation size). Some seem to spend everything on infra, tech, and military while others keep up to 15 days worth of tax collection in reserve for war times. Would be interested in hearing the thoughts of others on this matter. What do you do?

This has been extensively discussed in the past. The "official" chance of getting an event is 10% every time taxes are collected but this is clearly not true. My nation is 154 days old with about 140 days of collection but no events ever. The chance of not getting a single event for 140 days in a row is about 1 in 2.5 million. Certain nations have not had events for much longer than that at odds of less than 1 in 140 million. Other nations (as witnessed in this thread) have had very frequent events. Events are therefore clearly not equally likely to occur for all nations. Some of us believe that there are certain nation factors that increase the likelihood of an event occurring. Unfortunately we have been unable to figure out what it could be and the admins aren't talking either.

Now we just need to get the ridiculous 10% figure changed on the wiki page to either a more likely 1-3% figure or to a statement that the likelihood of events is not equal across all nations. I wonder if any of the mods or admin himself could shed some light on all this?

The time of tax collection effect still sounds the most plausible. Other possibilities: effect of time zones nation resources (e.g., if you have pop boosters you tend to get more pop boosting events) open trade slots (zero for me) Government positions

Yay - I have found some people who actually agree with me and who know something about stats (and who will therefore find it funny that my nation and ruler names are Decomposition and Cholesky). Trying to get the admins to give more information seems fruitless - but I would love to find out more. The time of tax collection idea sounds plausible. I had briefly considered whether government types play a role - I am always in Monarchy but maybe I should be giving the people what they want rather than what they need

Oh yeah this again... Events are truly weird. The official likelihood of getting an event is 10% every time you collect taxes. This figure is, however, likely to be completely incorrect. My nation is 128 days old with about 120 days of tax collection but I have not had a single event. The odds of not getting a single event over that time period if the chance is really 10% is less than 1 in 300000. Other nations that I know have not had an event in over 200 days of tax collection (odds less than 1 in 140 million). Every time I bring this up I am told that I don't understand stats (which is weird because I am a researcher with a PhD using fairly advanced stats every day in my work) or that I am just unlucky. Clearly there are unknown factors that increase or decrease the likelihood of a nation having an event (or there is a serious bug). It just seems impossible to find out what those factors are. btw - with a previous nation of mine I had events all the time (maybe one every 7 to 10 days). Things have clearly changed.

Mmmm... someone does not understand statistics (and I have a PhD in a stats heavy field). If I showed you a coin that had flipped tails 100 times in a row you would have very good reason to suspect that it is not a regular coin. Prior events do not influence the likelihood of future events (if one assumes independence of probability) but you still have to consider the complete event chain when evaluating the likelihood that a stated probability of an event occuring is correct. A simple application of binomial theory will tell you that the likelihood of not getting an 10% likelihood event occurring even once over 200 repeated trial is less than 1 in 140 million. Since there are multiple players experiencing a complete lack of events there is a good chance that something else is going on.

There is absolute no way that it is 10%!! My nation is 122 days old with not a single event. The odds of that happening are less than 1 in 382000 (and yes I have collected taxes on almost every day). Other nations in my alliance have not had an event for over 200 days (odds less than 1 in 140 million). So the 10% figure on the wiki page is clearly bogus. My thinking is that there are unknown factors that increase the likelihood of events occurring. With a previous nation I typically had about 1 event every 10 days so the 10% figure seemed right then but things have clearly changed.

Never had an event myself - only 109 days old but still.... :angry:

The 10% figure is from the wiki page: http://cybernations.wikia.com/wiki/Random_Events Also what I was told by one of the admins. I know events can be bad but it just feels like one of the features of the game is not really active anymore. Odds of 1 in 140 million go a little beyond just bad luck

My nation is 108 days old with 100 days of tax collection but not a single event. One guy in my alliance has not had an event for about 200 days of tax collection. Please don't tell me that this is just bad luck. The official chance of an event per tax collection is 10% which means that the odds of not getting an event for 100 days is about 1 in 37000 and for 200 days about 1 in 140 million. Any thoughts on what is going on?

Thanks for the information. Still seems strange to me. I think that I have collected taxes for 90 out of 100 days that my nation has been in existence. If the probability of an event is 10% every time taxes are collected then the probability of not getting one event for 90 consecutive days is: .9 to the power of 90 = .000076 or 1:13127. Surely this is unlikely and suggests some kind of bug especially if there are other nations that have had similar experiences (as indicated in this thread and a similar one started in my alliance forum).

Hi, Is there a set likelihood of an event occurring for every time that taxes are collected? My nation turned 100 days today and I have collected taxes on almost all of those days but have yet to experience an event whereas I used to have a lot of events with a previous nation of mine. Seems very unlikely to not have any events at all for 100 days unless the probability of an event for every tax collection is less than about 3%. Could this be a bug or am I just very unlucky?