IAT, I doubt that IRON will say that they didn't screw up in that war.. but, the facts are that the coalition apparently took every measure to make sure that they ended up looking bad. Blaming the LoSS declaration to coincidence requires that people should be able to trust the word of TOP but it ends becoming a "he said.. she said" argument. The history of TOP and the fact that you guys have historically been good with realpolitik makes it difficult to take your word for it.
It might be just me but I find it difficult to associate incompetence with TOP.
IRON's declaration on TLR was indeed a bad choice and based on my interactions with their membership, that was one of the reasons for the lack of support from membership and bad performance in the war. Then again, since TOP seems to have a lot of inside knowledge about IRON membership and govt, you probably know about it more than me.