I would tend to agree with some of that, actually. Although, as never having been a member of any Order, be it Pacifica, Polaris, or Sith, I wouldn't know more of the background maneuverings that went on, but it's always good to be enlightened to such things. Though I don't think I would lessen Moldavi's impact on the game. Even if it was Dilber who helped shaped Polaris into what it was, Ivan seized the game in the early days using his "personality", as you call it, but he also isn't afraid to make large decisions that shake the game to its core.
I believe the Karma War(And, to a lesser extent, the Moldavi Rebellion) were inevitable, and could not have been avoided, regardless of -anyone's- inactivity. After the disbandment of the CoaLUEtion, Pacifica and its allies ruled over the game, forcing most alliances in a state of fear. Humans, by their nature, are prone to rebelling, as long as Pacifica would have stayed in power, as long as ANY global hegemony stayed in power, other, smaller alliances who didn't agree with their ways are prone to rebel. The Unjust War was a much less organized form of what the Karma War could have been. And the Moldavi Rebellion's inevitability might be my own opinion, but, did you -really- think Ivan would leave the game for good?
As for who I'd build an alliance around, I wouldn't mind building one around Electron Sponge nor Ivan. Both are strong leaders with strong "personalities" and are able to set goals that they can and will achieve in this game.