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Bakunin's Dream

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    Bakunin's Dream
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    New Pacific Order
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  1. OK, I aggregated all of Viluin's data (N=6593) and the total hit rate is 49.52% with a 95% confidence interval of (48.316%, 50.729%). So it looks like the the SDIs are working 50% of the time instead of 60% of the time. The fact that it works out to almost exactly 50% strongly suggests to me that issue really is that P(hit)=0.5 instead of 0.4 rather than there being an error in the data collection process (we wouldn't expect it to work out to a round number like 50% if it were just a case of bad data). As far as I can tell, the bottom line here is that SDIs really work 50% of the time, not 60%. Kind of funny how it took a giant war to give us the data set we needed to figure this out.
  2. Viluin are you checking the SDI status of nations on the chosen AA as well as their opponents? It seems to me like the stats page lists every nuclear attack that an alliance is involved with, not just the ones that they launch or they receive. If you haven't been, this might explain why an alliance like Darkfall is off even though they all have SDIs since some of their opponents might not. Also, it really does matter that you filter out all the nations that don't have SDIs; I've played around with the numbers a little bit and a small downward shift in the hit rate can easily make the results non-significant for some of these alliances. It also might be the case that thwarted nuclear attacks don't always show up on the reports page for some reason. I think it would be far more likely for there to be a glitch in the code causing thwarted attacks to be under-reported than for something as simple as P(hit)=0.4 to be screwed up.
  3. so I saw this and randomly did a chi-square test just for !@#$% and giggles. Darkfall's chi-squared was 5.36 which is significant at p=.02 with 1 degree of freedom and Umbrella's was 23.80 which is significant at p<.00001, also with 1 df. If you take both of them together you get a chi-squared of 29.14 which has a p-value on the order of 10^-8 so yeah something's up (for non-math geeks the p-value is the probability of the result occurring by chance alone). I'm ready to reject the null hypothesis that this is good, randomly sampled data of nations that all had SDIs giving a hit probability of .4 but that doesn't tell us what's actually going on. here are some possibilities: -not all nations sampled actually had SDIs -sampling error, i.e. hits were more likely to be recorded as data points than misses for some reason related to the methodology -selection bias, i.e. alliances being analyzed were selected in the first place for having unusual hit rates -i'm tired and i didn't do the chi-square test right -the probability of a nuke hitting given the defender having an SDI is not actually equal to 0.4 I'm leaning towards some combination of the first three or maybe just #4. Or some other reason I haven't thought of. But I kind of doubt that there would be something off with the SDI hit rate since it seems like it would be really hard to screw up the code for it.
  4. Vladimir gets it right, laziness and ****ty attitudes killed the one thing CN ever had going for it. Without anything that looks like politics the game is basically Halo 3 but with technology from 25 years ago. This game is done and I'm glad I don't give a **** anymore because if I did I'd be really depressed.
  5. [quote name='tamerlane' timestamp='1295931359' post='2598448'] Because we'll be confiscating your pixels and technology during the course of this war, I'll buy the first round. [/quote] how many pixels for a shot of patron?
  6. [quote name='tamerlane' timestamp='1295930573' post='2598346'] Translation: "It was only fun when we were doing it." [/quote] no my point is more like "people used to have reasons for doing things." yes i get that your response to that is "but i didn't think your reasons for x y and z were good reasons." i don't care and i don't do owf pissing contests anymore so let's just nuke each other and then get drunk or something
  7. thanks for all the replies, glad to see i'm still loved
  8. [quote name='tamerlane' timestamp='1295930096' post='2598283'] When you eliminate the pretense of nearly all but a precious few Pacifican wars, you get the same rationale. I don't see why its any further downhill now than it was then... [/quote] yeah whatever. think whatever you like but the only part of this game that was ever interesting is worthless now because people got lazy and let the politics degrade to the level of a kindergarten playground. but hey i don't do that anymore so enjoy, i'mma go nuke somebody now.
  9. "Because we feel like it." Man this game has gone downhill.
  10. Thank you. It is good to know who one's friends are.
  11. It's great to hear that the MHA takes its agreements seriously.
  12. Was talking about the "bowing to public pressure" comment. Or would you not make that same argument if we stopped perma-ZI'ing people tomorrow? I guess anyone who ever uses surrender terms is despicable and underhanded then. If you're arguing that the victorious alliance in a war should never require the defeated party to do anything you're not going to find much support. hahahaha GPW How so? It's no good to us if we get it wrong. If we are able to use good judgment (and I believe we are) it is both prudent and justified.
  13. Well that's not "effectively banning someone from ever returning," is it? If you show no indication of changing or refuse to be respectful, it's possible to remain for months, but if you have a basic sense of what to do you really shouldn't find yourself in that situation.
  14. No, it probably hurts them more. All I'm saying is that it's no good for us either.
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