kingly

nah, servers are still up, world isn't truly dead until admin names the server shutdown date.

nono, I mean people I was going to declare war on when the end came.

All the nations I saved to blow up someday in the future have deleted or long since gone inactive...so much for my end of the world targets.

Hey, that mean I won the last to post wins on the ancient NADC forms! We've been slowly going back and forth on it for the last 8 years

I actually update this every year! Somehow my last post is still on the front page despite being nearly 1 year old. Stay tune next month for the next update! (and for a sneak peak, we've lost ~25% of the remaining population in the last year, and are on track to hit 2k around early-mid 2020)

Ohh nice, thanks for that. Just added it in and it fits right on the curves. So we're still trending for no later than Jan 2021 to drop below 1000.

We're probably going to drop below 4000 nations within the next 2 weeks, the count is currently at 4011 active nations. Its also that time again where every 2 years I look at the trend data and try to predict CNs future and end date. Lets start with my previous predictions: We did indeed fall below 5000 players in that time range, but we trended worse than expected, which does not bode well for the game. Let's take a look at the player count over time, the dataset I have is somewhat in complete, but it paints the picture we need. The current nation count is the lowest I have on record, lower than even my data points in 2006. What does this mean for CN? Lets look at the tail end, the last 6 or so years, and try to project when cn will end. The colored ranges represent the zone of possibility for cn if trends continue. Absolute worst case cn could be finished as early as early as the end of 2018, best case 2024, where ending is dropping below 1000 nations. My guess is we will hit 1000 sometime between Aug of 2020 and Jan of 2021, assuming the game is allowed to run this long. If 1000 is the cutoff, the game will probably not last more than a few months past 2021. If however 2000 nations is the cutoff, we could see the end by late 2019.

Do we know when the end is? I parked my nation a while ago to wait for it.

I seem to recall fighting a few wars to end the practice of PZI, blast him to the past but shame on you for making it permanent.

Not quite yet, I decided to calculate it one last time. Sorry for the rough formating. [251] (-40) New Pacific Order : 97.92 --> 104.4 (6.48/6.21%) [256] (-49) Independent Republic of Orange Nations : 85.03 --> 92.24 (7.21/7.82%) [128] (-35) Green Protection Agency : 72.52 --> 66.41 (-6.11/-9.20%) [71] (-11) Umbrella : 54.95 --> 60.44 (5.49/9.08%) [178] (-15) New Polar Order : 36.55 --> 42.11 (5.56/13.20%) [97] (-17) Orange Defense Network : 40.38 --> 40.43 (0.05/0.12%) [101] (-59) Viridian Entente : 42.7 --> 37.59 (-5.11/-13.59%) [58] (-8) The Dark Templar : 30.4 --> 32.75 (2.35/7.18%) [64] (-21) Federation Of Armed Nations : 34.72 --> 31.41 (-3.31/-10.54%) [69] (12) Global Alliance and Treaty Organization : 19.4 --> 25.63 (6.23/24.31%) [11] (-1) DOOMBIRD DOOMCAVE : 21.7 --> 22.97 (1.27/5.53%) [58] (-28) NATO : 32.4 --> 22.31 (-10.09/-45.23%) [65] (-4) Fark : 18.67 --> 21.82 (3.15/14.44%) [98] (-30) The Legion : 32.67 --> 21.05 (-11.62/-55.20%) [40] (-18) World Task Force : 23.31 --> 20.66 (-2.65/-12.83%) [36] (-5) Fellowship of the Wolves : 15.77 --> 18.51 (2.74/14.80%) [57] (-4) North Atlantic Defense Coalition : 13.64 --> 17.57 (3.93/22.37%) [79] (-41) Sparta : 26.09 --> 16.2 (-9.89/-61.05%) [56] (+8) Knights Of The Round Table : 14.38 --> 16.02 (1.64/10.24%) [37] (-7) The Grand Lodge Of Freemasons : 14.59 --> 14.57 (-0.02/-0.14%) [49] (-18) Nordreich : 18.55 --> 14.54 (-4.01/-27.58%) [39] (-23) Last Call : 14.23 --> 13.26 (-0.97/-7.32%) [22] (-1) The Realm Of The Rose : 12.12 --> 12.69 (0.57/4.49%) [51] (-27) Non Grata : 20.35 --> 12.29 (-8.06/-65.58%) [26] (-11) The Last Remnants : 11.72 --> 9.42 (-2.30/-24.42%) [48] (-15) The Templar Knights : 17.26 --> 9.28 (-7.98/-85.99%) [40] (-3) State Of Unified Nations : 11.84 --> 8.48 (-3.36/-39.62%) [33] (-33) Invicta : 11.05 --> 7.86 (-3.19/-40.59%)

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No update in almost 10 days. I think folks this is a sign of the end times if this thread is dying.

One major factor, look at the open world RP section. There's a post from October on there. Back in karma era, the current days posts were sometimes 3 pages deep! We have maybe 5% of the people active on the forums as we did back then, hard to generate drama with so few.

Planet Bob is a lot smaller than it used to be. While this does not bode well for the health of the game, an interesting side effect of this shrinkage will start becoming relevant this year if the current player loss rate keeps up. As of writing this, there are 6804 nations, 3188 of which are in the top 30 alliances by player count. A merger between 10-20 of these alliances, and less as Bob continues to shrink, could quite possibly stomp the entire world. An alliance that commanded ~2500 nations, distributed in size could at least in theory, win the game. Granted, such an alliance would be playing the villain here, basically outlawing all other alliances by right of might. The world however needs a good villain, something that has been lacking since NPO and Karma. So I implore the top alliances, be evil, the world is now small enough you could actually win the game and take over Bob.

As someone who's been here since GW2 (previous nation and all), I personally saw a massive downturn in participation in the year following the Karma war. We were kings of the world, NPO fell, and then the realization, "Now what?". My personal opinion is CN never recovered from losing its boogeyman/big bad. Without it, every subsequent war has felt a little less authentic and exciting, things that will generate apathy and player loss long term. Admin should have ended the world there, and started a new one, that may not have been player height, but I'd reckon it was close to activity height.

I guess its that time again where I'll look at the player count and try and predict the future. Lets take a look at last time first: As you can see, I predicted somewhere between about 6500 and the game ending for this day. I'm excited to say I was wrong, we're doing better than that. Please note some of the data on the next chart has been interpolated due to lack of granular data. So what am I predicting now? We will fall below 5000 by mid 2017, I'd say the earliest the game could end is Dec 2017, and I'm placing a max shelf life of Jan 2021, at which point we will almost certainly be below 2000, likely even 1000.

Just a little update on something I did a while ago, above you can see the CN member count over time, good news is we're beating the best case scenario from last year for this time, bad news is we're about to drop below 10k members, and will likely drop below 5k by 2017. Somewhere in the area enclosed between the two extrapolations is the death of cn, my guess being sometime around late 2017 to mid 2018.

I feel bad for the alliances in the middle of that circle.

don't feed the troll folks

we may finally have a standard for war maps now

Damm, i was just looking through the history a bit, I forgot just how many people used to be in those top alliances...

I think we really need a graphic of the current declarations

[quote name='Ironfist' timestamp='1339998568' post='2987322'] You realise statistics don't read the future, right? [/quote] I do, but its also why i plotted worst and best case scenarios, logically the end day has to fall between them, which with that data is about a 13 month or so window

[quote name='Banksy' timestamp='1339898577' post='2986128'] all according to plan [/quote] i have extrapolated the data above, and it doesn't look good [img]http://i50.tinypic.com/9g9284.jpg[/img] as you can see above, assuming reality falls somewhere between a linear and an exponential curve, and assuming that falling below 5000 players is unsustainable, endgame will most likely fall between March of 2014 and Oct of 2015, with an absolute maximum lifespan of 2018(where the exponential curve crosses 2500 players.)However, we could see this start to occur as soon as late 2013 depending on the extrapolation.

[quote name='TodZumTeufel' timestamp='1339786125' post='2985071'] They're not really worth much yet, but here's a nice simple one: [img]http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/2753/cnday3.png[/img] [/quote] I like that war chart, lets keep it organised people, no declarations that make it a mess