An analysis of Mushqaeda political dynamics

[The Zigur]

Some time ago I had mentioned that a little bird told me that Mushroom Kingdom still held long-term foreign policy goals, and that a shadow government continued to control the actions of the various MK remnants. This accusation was of course quickly dismissed by MK insiders when I brought it up, and I ultimately agreed that such accusations were unfair if not backed by evidence. So, I decided to delve a little deeper and explore the facts as they currently stand rather than mere heresay from ex-members:

 

 

As we see from the screen capture, Mushqaeda notes that it remains protected by the disbanded Mushroom Kingdom! Such a thing, of course, should not be within the legal capabilities of a disbanded alliance. Yet a quick browsing of the war screen confirms that Musqaeda has indeed enjoyed protection against the TTE counterattack:

 

 

Quite a capable and organized response from a disbanded alliance! It almost seems as if the original Mushroom Kingdom AA acts as a sort of strategic reserve to support the Mushqaeda fighters at the battlefront. This strategic reserve, of course, remains protected by TOP on an individual level under the guise of disbandment protection: nations that have not yet engaged the enemy or otherwise contributed to the battlefront continue to enjoy TOP protection.

 

This would lend credibility to claims I have heard that Mushroom Kingdom does continue to exist as a covert force. I do not pass judgment, but merely present an analysis of this possibility and I have to conclude that such a shadow government's existence is likely. It is an alliance's sovereign right to declare war on any other alliance for any reason. But my next question was, why the smoke and mirrors, and carefully orchestrated entertainment? Why not just declare war as one Mushroom kingdom?

 

My initial opinion of the disbandment was that MK would be leaving a gaping hole in power politics, but I am now starting to believe that MK never relinquished power. After all, TOP must have reason to believe there is value in indirectly assisting in this war.

 

I am now leaning towards the opinion that MK leadership was not sure how well an attack on TDO would turn out. How many alliances would actively rally to a neutral alliance perceived as weak? What would GPA or classic MK enemies do? Would the response be overwhelming and potentially crush Mushroom Kingdom? What better way to provide entertainment to bored membership than creating an aggressor proxy that is protected by the treaty web, but can be cut loose should the counter-attack be too powerful!

 

The downside to this approach is that the political flexibility offered by this approach harms long term stability. If this strategy is successful and becomes a precedent, any well-connected alliance merely has to split into two or more affiliations when conducting a war of conquest that might go wrong. This precedent would be very dangerous for both neutral alliances and less well connected alliances down the road.

 

Now what would happen were the international response to escalate to include connected major alliances? TOP and The entire range of MK remnants would be implicated in enabling the destruction of an innocent neutral alliance, and legally speaking this would stand to logic. If a powerful, well connected alliance were to now steamroll Mushqaeda, the MK shadow government would have to decide whether to abandon their brothers as terrorists, or commit fully to the war. As the situation escalated and treaty counters fired, a great war situation would begin to develop, especially if Mushroom Kingdom was treated as a legitimate target for supporting terrorism. TOP holds all the cards, and they would have to quickly decide whether to support MK and so begin a great war, or disavow the MK strategy and allow their friend to be rolled.

 

Again, I hold no biases and have great respect for Mushroom Kingdom's combat capability and strategic cleverness. But the great weakness in their strategy is a Casus Belli could be constructed by powerful alliances that would declare Mushqaeda to be politically destabilizing terrorists; that this strategy violates international precedence, and that any who support terrorist actions are terrorists themselves. Such a Casus Belli would carry more legitimacy than that of Mushqaeda and could garner international support. In the end, it remains to be seen how the MK gambit pays off, but hats off to MK for political ingenuity and entertainment value!

 

Edited to reflect sincerity by TOP.

Edited October 2, 2013 by Tywin Lannister

[Mogar]

While I agree with the majority of your analysis, my only question to you is, do you believe that TOP would throw away their two most recently signed treaties for an alliance that has publicly disbanded?

[Omniscient1]

Wow besides all the "MK still lives. They're with Elvis and PAC!" Stuff, this is a good question. So are the members on the MK AA engaging in aggressive action still under protection TOP?

[The Zigur]

While I agree with the majority of your analysis, my only question to you is, do you believe that TOP would throw away their two most recently signed treaties for an alliance that has publicly disbanded?

 

I'm not sure, that question is above my pay grade :p I havent known TOP well for years and can't really take a guess as to their long term intentions. However, were a major backlash to happen, I believe they could honorably extricate themselves from the situation, as they may have been unaware that they are being used to protect terrorists.

 

Wow besides all the "MK still lives. They're with Elvis and PAC!" Stuff, this is a good question. So are the members on the MK AA engaging in aggressive action still under protection TOP?

 

My understanding is that they do not protect nations that engage actively in the conflict from the MK AA. It is only a defensive measure should an alliance target the MK AA as a whole, thus securing the MK AA as a reserve force.

[Rebel Virginia]

I am sorry, but MK is gone. I can see you're still in denial, as evidenced by your ridiculous theory. MK isn't coming bad. No amount of bargaining will make it so. You can vent all the rage you want at me, I understand (I too share your grief), but you need to join the rest of the world is accepting reality. MK is gone.

Edited September 21, 2013 by Rebel Virginia

[Commander shepard]

I am sorry, but MK is gone. I can see you're still in denial, as evidenced by your ridiculous theory. MK isn't coming bad. No amount of bargaining will make it so. You can vent all the rage you want at me, I understand (I too share your grief), but you need to join the rest of the world is accepting reality. MK is gone.

 

MK is gone when I see them all gone, until they are not still around then they can not be gone.

Barely a single MK member moved onto another decent alliance.

[Rebel Virginia]

MK is gone when I see them all gone, until they are not still around then they can not be gone.

Barely a single MK member moved onto another decent alliance.

I see you too are having trouble accepting that they're gone. Would you like to talk about it?

[Commander shepard]

I see you too are having trouble accepting that they're gone. Would you like to talk about it?

Yes, why can I still see them?

[The Zigur]

I don't think I'm the one in denial, Rebel Virginia. Please re-read my analysis and come back with a more detailed counter-analysis and explain where my logic is wrong, otherwise you look like this:

 

[ooc]

[/ooc]

Edited September 21, 2013 by Tywin Lannister

[WarriorSoul]

The Order of the Paradox shall protect all peacable nations remaining under the Mushroom Kingdom alliance affiliation. We further extend this protection to the alliance Alchemy. This protection does not extend to any of the other-titled MK affiliate groups, known or unknown, nor does it extend to any nation that chooses to engage in rogue operations.

 

Unless you're actually arguing that TOP is supporting the rolling of a neutral for the hell of it, that basically ends this argument. TOP is protecting the peaceful MK nations residing solely on the Mushroom Kingdom AA. Any warring nations on that AA, or anyone on the Mushqaeda AA, etc. are fair game.

[cookavich]

our plans have been foiled again

[The Zigur]

/

 

Unless you're actually arguing that TOP is supporting the rolling of a neutral for the hell of it, that basically ends this argument. TOP is protecting the peaceful MK nations residing solely on the Mushroom Kingdom AA. Any warring nations on that AA, or anyone on the Mushqaeda AA, etc. are fair game.

 

Yes, but what is the objective effect of this protection? It establishes the Mushroom Kingdom AA as a protected reserve that can engage at will against those who try to attack MQ. The individual MK nations are also free to leave this safe haven at any time to engage in the war effort. That makes TOP an active supporter of the conflict.

 

[ooc]Since MQ styles itself after Al Qaeda, it must be referenced that Al Qaeda utilized safe haven nations like Afghanistan to organize and finance it's operations. it is interesting to note how after the attack on the Twin Towers, Taliban leader Mullah Omar refused to give up Bin Laden, and the entire regime was leveled.[/ooc]

Edited September 21, 2013 by Tywin Lannister

[Artigo]

Your only viable option is to roll TOP

[The Zigur]

Your only viable option is to roll TOP

 

Well, my position in all this is neutral. I merely try to understand the developing situation and help others to do so if I can. I am almost certain that TOP does not endorse these rogue actions, and never intended to in providing this protection. If they are like most of MK's allies, they may not have even been notified beforehand. If I was TOP, I might be very upset that my friendship and protection was being used to support a war that I would want no part of.

Edited September 21, 2013 by Tywin Lannister

[Neo Uruk]

Everyone attack TOP, this is your chance.

[TurnipCruncher]

I think TOP have been as clear as needs be. What with MK formally disbanding, as I understand it all treaties pertaining to MK are void.

[Roadie]

Your only viable option is to roll TOP

 

TOP: The nation harboring terrorists since 2013.

[Hereno]

I think TOP have been as clear as needs be. What with MK formally disbanding, as I understand it all treaties pertaining to MK are void.

 

Actually, Ardus gave a post a day or two ago talking about the difference between MK (who they would protect) and MQ (who they would not) in regards to TOP affairs.

[chefjoe]

Interesting points and perspective. Only way to prove/disprove your hypothesis is if a strong group assembles to help give MQ a 21 gun salute sendoff from Bob, or wait until the end of the war on TDO and watch if/how many MQ 'ascend' from Bob and do not either form a diff AA, or join another established set of AA's etc.

 

Until either of the above come to pass its just conjecture and an invitation to a "NO U!" circular argument/thread.

 

CJ

[Freddy]

 
MK is gone when I see them all gone, until they are not still around then they can not be gone.
Barely a single MK member moved onto another decent alliance.

Last time I looked over 2.6 million NS has transferred from MK.

[HM Solomon I]

Last time I looked over 2.6 million NS has transferred from MK.

 

You know that number sounds very familiar ... oh right, that's pretty much exactly MQ's NS.  What a coincidence ...

 

I think that this is covered then by:

 

 

Barely a single MK member moved onto another decent alliance.

[Ogaden]

Actually there isn't exact overlap, a lot of MK's NS is going elsewhere, and a lot of MQ's NS is coming from elsewhere, but for the most part you're right.  Not entirely though.

[HM Solomon I]

Actually there isn't exact overlap, a lot of MK's NS is going elsewhere, and a lot of MQ's NS is coming from elsewhere, but for the most part you're right.  Not entirely though.

 

Yes, you are correct; it's true enough though.

[Centurius]

The kind of stretches of reality you pulled in that post to come to that conclusion, you must be either delusional or a troll.

[Londo Mollari]

You don't get it, sorry.