Jump to content
  • entries
    8
  • comments
    86
  • views
    8,805

Cybernations and Psychohistory

Icewolf

Entry posted by Icewolf

755 views

 Share

For those of you that are Science fiction fans, you may have comes across the Foundation series by Issac Asimov. This series is premised on the idea of Psychohistory, a fictional branch of science in which statistical analysis can be used to predict Human behavior. Not the behavior of an individual, but of a large crowd. The parallel is of modelling a gas-a single atom is very hard to predict. A billion atoms can be predicted relatively easily. Therefore the future of a billion human beings can be predicted more easily than the future of one.

Clearly this is a fiction as far as Humanity is concerned. However part of me wonders if this could be considered pheasible in the realm of cybernations? After all-we are far more basic than a Human Being. Our nations have two ways to interact-war or trade. Our relationships are very clearly defined. We have alliance membership. We have Treaties that all fit a similar template.

I do not have the knowledge to know if this is possible or the statistical ability to carry it out even if it is. I am not suggesting that it is true. I am merely wondering about the possibility that it could be true.

 Share

3 Comments

Recommended Comments

Gamsmashius

It could be, but politics are politics, even in a game. It would be VERY complicated, and as in the book, we couldn't actually know the prediction because that would mess everything up. We can predict things based on patterns. A large war or two has happened every year, so it would be safe to predict that there will be a big war this year as well.

Link to comment
Icewolf

I think there are some things which could be analysed to give a more certain prediction. For example, you could probably find a correlation between warchest sizes of the sanctioned alliances and the level of tension in CN politics.

Link to comment
Caladin

But then there are random incidents, all impossible to account for, that could result in war.

CN is too reliant on the actions of the individual to have this become in any way plausible.

Link to comment
Guest
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
×
  • Create New...